According to newly released but a somewhat stale polling from AARP, taken 10/8-10/15 against 600 LV
 | NEVADA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 47 |
I wonder if we will eventually see polling done that weights the party ID based on real data coming in from early voting.
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
116 responses to “Trump up 2 in Nevada”
First.
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Dos.
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Tres.
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Bueller? Bueller?
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Anyone home McFly?
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Latest from Ralston in Nevada…
[This page intentionally left blank]
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NATIONAL poll – favorable/unfavorable (registered voters)
🔴 Trump: 52%-47% (+5)
🔵 Harris: 47%-52% (-5)
Gallup | 10/22
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Whoa! I thought Gallup got out of POTUS H2H polls and just focused on favorables and Party self-ID.
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I believe that is favorable ratings. Not a poll
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Scooter, do you have a link? I went to Gallup’s oage but could not find those particular H@Hs. Thanks.
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D’oh! Just realized that, thanks, Vic.
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GOP just flipped St. Lucie county in Florida.
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Silverhack is so upset he can’t spell Tuesday.
Last update: 2:45 p.m., Tuesady, October 22. Strong day of state polling for Trump, with leads in high-quality polls of Georgia and Nevada — where early voting numbers also look promising for Republicans. Trump has steadily improved in our forecast over the past two weeks, but the model is mostly sticking to the view that these are incremental shifts rather than a sea change and the race remains highly competitive.
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GOP just flipped Duval county in Florida
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Anyone have a clue why Walz would be doing a Rally in Kentucky? Are there even any toss up House Races there?
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Where else can the worst governor in the union go, under the radar?
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He heard they have good fried chicken?
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Doltz is looking for Robbie and other knuckleheads.
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Dems collapsing at Polymarket.
Odd of an R sweep are up to 50% and Trump winning popular vote up to 42%.
Swing states?
MI 60-41
PA 63-39
NV 63-37
GA 72-29
WI 57-42
AZ 75-26
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Where else can the worst governor in the union go, under the radar?”
Janzam is trying to offend Gavin Newsome?
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I checked Ralston to see if had a rescue post for Dems.
He did.
“Overnight mail ballots cut into GOP lead”.
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NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔵 Harris: 47% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 46%
Last poll: Harris+1
SurveyUSA | 10/17-20 | N=1,164RV
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Why are pollsters still using RV polls this late?
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Rabid Marxist will campaign for Kamala…
Bruce Springsteen will appear with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama at a get out the vote rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday, according to sources familiar with the plans.
The singer will also appear with Obama for a campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Monday, October 28.”
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That is a high quality nc poll.
-Nate Silverfish
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Trump to go on Joe Rogan on Friday.
Now even if Kamala does also it will look like she is chasing him.
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https://www.frontpagemag.com/kamala-grew-up-around-terrorists/
Interesting Kamala background nobody talks about:
”Kamala and Obama both come from radical Third World families who loathed America and Western civilization. Obama’s family played a role in Islamist massacres in Indonesia and Kenya while Kamala’s family appears to have had a role in the Communist war against Rhodesia.
People are not prisoners of their past but the way that Obama and Kamala were raised provide important insights about their worldviews, their politics and their plans for America.”
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Maybe she can go to Burger King instead of McDonald’s?
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she won’t go on Rogan. Not after the fox interview.
I have to admit, even I am coming around to the fact that she’s sinking in the polls, and there even stands an outside chance Trump wins the popular vote IF it looks as if she’s going to lose early, depressing the CA vote
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Tim Doltz just claimed that trump does not have stamina.
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It’t being reported Gwen Walz is being pulled from the campaign because of “how she talks to people.”
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Vic, good point about the popular vote/depressing ca, it could be we get nevada, Colorado, or New Mexico electorally, if she is blown out early too. Not saying trump any of these.
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Gwen and Tim both love the smell of burning buildings.
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I do think CO and NM are a bridge too far, though, with his increased profile amongst Hispanics, it could make it closer than expected
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NM will be far closer than CO. I think NM is gettable.
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Maybe Dominici outruns Trump in NM and we steal the senate seat. Much more valuable than the 330th EV
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In any case I would like NM to be a swing state going forward so the Dems are forced to defend more states.
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The SurveyUSA poll buried the likely and certain to vote data deep in the weeds, but Trump actually leads this poll 49/47
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Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD
@TonerousHyus
Georgia IPEV Update Day 7 3:30pm – 165k voted Today White: 65.4% Black: 21.9%Only so many ways to say it at this point but just totally unprecedented
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793 Views
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Los Angeles Times not endorsing Kamala Harris – a big surprise.
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Her home state/home city newspaper.
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PhilHollowayEsq
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has released its final poll It has Trump up 47% to 43%
My sense on the ground here is that it will wind up less close than that I think Trump leads by about 6 or 7 points I also think the 8% undecided they report will break heavily Republican
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Trump 60c, Kamala 45c at PredictIT
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More plagiarism:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/22/report-kamala-harris-busted-plagiarism-testimony-congress/
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BARNES: The closest states in the country are going to be VA, NH, MN, ME, NM rather than PA/MI/WI/NV/AZ/GA/NC.
Hmm…I am not sure I would put them all in the same statement. But I agree in principle, that VA, NH, MN, ME and NM will not be called right away on election night, and will probably be close.
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No peaking too early….
You don’t want the Dems too desperate before the results… only after.
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America First Legal
@America1stLegal
·
Follow
BREAKING
Following a @HouseAdmin report, we filed a bar complaint on behalf of Stefan Passantino against former Rep. Liz Cheney for allegedly violating professional ethics obligations by secretly messaging Cassidy Hutchinson prior to her testimony before the J6 Committee
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good. Cheney’s a friggin weasel. She and kinzinger are both even more self centered than Trump. They bowed down to the radical left in order to have any relevance, principles be damned
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GOP now ahead in Florida early voting by FIVE full points…
Republican 936,390 42.50%
Democrat 825,939 37.48%
No Party Affiliation 396,270 17.98%
Other 44,916 2.04%
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Seeing all these Dems on X boasting how they only need a firewall of around 500,000 in Pennsylvania. That seems low to me, especially if Reps are motivated to turn out on ED. But, I don’t really know much about EV turnout. Anyone care to give their thoughts?
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Obama needs to look in the mirror:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
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41m
OBAMA: “I don’t understand how we got so toxic and just so divided and so bitter.”
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UPDATE: We are polling Virginia now!
Last Virginia poll: August 20-22
🔵Harris 49 (+3)
🔴Trump: 46
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Scooter, there was that great chart someone posted showing the huge gains in voter registration in PA. And Harris might well experience the same turnout problem with black voters going on in Virginia congressional district 3.
Its been 9 polls since Harris had any lead in PA, not doing better than a tie even in the bullfinch group poll.
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Someone on X
Nevada Dems in panic mode. Focus is on Clark County – HOWEVER it’s the rural surge which will push Trump over, these are the current in person Trump margins!!!
🔴Carson +53
🔴Churchill +80
🔴Douglas +73
🔴Elko +82
🔴Lyon +75
🔴Nye +81
Harris can’t win with these huge margins
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I was polled last evening in VA.
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Halloween decorations…
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1848756306686947587
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Rasmussen
If the 2024 election were between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
Black Voters Only-
Trump: 33%
Harris: 64% (+31)
Someone Else: 2%
Not Sure: 2%
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Did it hurt?
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Seeing all these Dems on X boasting how they only need a firewall of around 500,000 in Pennsylvania”
Trump was up by 700k on election night in PA and lost by 80k.
Possibly with more Rs cannibalizing their votes 500k could be enough.
But without knowing how the Indies are voting its very hard to say what the “firewall” is.
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I heard elections have consequences.
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I find it very hard to believe that Trump will get 33% black vote. That would be almost unbelievable. We would be talking a massive landslide.
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I don’t believe Trump will get 33% of the black vote.
But even 20% would be huge.
Heck, 15% would be big.
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Both DW and I have been polled.
So it is going on.
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Bitter is alive ?????
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Apparently so.
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If the election was held today, I think Trump and McCormick would lose. Harris and Casey are running ads almost exclusively about abortion. It does not have to be the most important issue to all voters. I think it will be the most important issue to enough voters to elect Dems.
We’ll know in 2 weeks.
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Bitter I disagree. For the first time in a long time I believe Trump is winning. There aren’t enough abortion Moms to overtake the grocery moms who are more worried about feeding their kids
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Ga update:
https://x.com/TonerousHyus/status/1848850919703675182?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Great- Demented wants trump to be “locked up” the next two weeks
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what do you mean he wants them locked up
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This should be condemned by all sides, including the Rinos and free passers. Disgusting. All because they are losing.
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There are a lot of young women who are pro-choice. There are a lot of women who who would never have an abortion but would not prevent others from doing it. Honestly, if abortion is not an important issue, why are 90% of the ads by Dems in my area about abortion? Don’t cop out and say there is nothing else to run on. I don’t know any women who have had abortions but I know many who are pro-choice.
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@EricLDaugh
BREAKING: Nevada Republicans are currently SURGING in the early vote.
Right now, in the rural counties, the GOP leads Democrats 73% TO 11% for early voting.
On the mail – it’s 46% to 28% in favor of Republicans.
Jon Ralston: “If this become a trend […] it will be over.”
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Bitterlaw, you are just talking about Pa. correct?
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Here’s the official Nevada early voting undate posted by Mr. Ralston minutes ago…
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
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It does not have to be the most important issue to all voters. I think it will be the most important issue to enough voters to elect Dems.”
The problem is that it is the MOST important issue to very few people, and I would argue that 99% were already Democrats.
For you to believe that it would decide the election you have to believe it a deciding issue for a lot of people who are not already voting for the Democrats. You have to believe it will change the vote of people who would ordinarily vote R but now will vote solely on abortion. In states where it is already legal and is not changing (PA, MI, etc.). Not to mention there is a group on the other side of the issue, who would vote R just because of abortion if that is the only criteria.
I don’t see it. I never met anybody like that. But like Bitter says, we will know soon enough.
Or maybe not, even if Trump loses, a distinct possibility, I very much doubt it will because of abortion,
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I asked my wife if she knows anybody voting for Kamala solely on abortion. She works for a big company. She know plenty of Dems, but said she can’t of one person who only votes on abortion. Not one.
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BUT: Let’s say 1 million people vote before Election Day and those percentages stay the same. If 570,000 vote by mail and 430,000 by early vote, it looks like this:
R—395,000
D – 360,000
O – 245,000
That is from Ralston’s site.
How are the Indies voting? If its 55-45 Dem, the R advantage would be gone.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/22/biden-embraces-trump-lawfare-we-gotta-lock-him-up/
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This is the first post-Dobbs Presidential race. Abortion has been a national election issue since Roe but it was not white hot issue it is now. PA is going to be very close. 20,000 voters who usually don’t vote but will because of abortion could swing it.
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Yikes
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John – PA is where I live so I know it best. However, I do see ads from Delaware and New Jersey. It is 90% of the Dem ads there, too. Those 2 states are so pro-abortion they probably give free puppies with every abortion. But they still warn of a national ban.
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Tulsi Gabbard is now a registered Republican.
They put her on the no fly list after she criticized demented.
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Bitter – i disagree with your premise, that abortion may be enough to swing the election in PA. I agree with Jason above, anyone who is so passionate about aborting a child for convenience is already voting, and already voting for Harris.
The reason the Dems are running ads in your suburban NE city is because of fear. It is the issue that they can raise the most “fear” about, and sound so draconian about, because Abortion is not just about being able to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, the Dems have made it about gender power, and about control. “Don’t let the MAN TRUMP tell you what you can do. You’re free now sister. Men don’t control us anymore, we are the masters”
It’s this type of sentiment that they tap into with Abortion. It’s anti-man, its tapping into the anger the suburban mom has for her husband because she didn’t see the great pyramids or climb Kilamanjaro like she dreamt about, now its about the newest kitchenaid appliance and getting little Bobby ready for little league.
That…that is why they run Abortion ads.
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I don’t know any women who have had abortions but I know many who are pro-choice.”
I am pro-choice. My wife is pro-choice. My daughter is pro-choice. I know a lot of pro-choice people. I don’t know ONE that would vote for President SOLELY on abortion, i.e. that is the ONLY issue they base their vote on.
Maybe such people exist and you know them. I just never met any.
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I agree. Dems might be running on abortion in the Philly area because they want to energize their base.
Scare seniors that Trump is going to cut social security (80% of the Dem ads here).
Scare young women that they won’t be able to get an abortion.
It’s what they do.
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Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD
@TonerousHyus
Georgia IPEV Day 7 Final (basically) – 222k voted White: 61.5% Black: 22.7% Cumulative: White: 58.0% Black: 26.1% This was by far the worst day in Georgia in the post Obama era in IPEV for Black voters. I can find no examples post 2016 of anything close to this.
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4,492 Views
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Missouri Democrat Senate Candidate Lucas Kunce shot a reporter at an event with Adam Kinzinger.
https://x.com/steveguest/status/1848888099322921101?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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The interesting thing about that, is that Kinzinger, who proclaimed to be a Republican who just hated Trump, was campaigning FOR THE DEMOCRAT and AGAINST THE REPUBLICAN candidate for Senate.
He’s pure scum. He should just come out of the political closet and let everyone know he’s a liberal Dem.
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Good grief….. look at how close they are to the targets while using a scope. lol
And it appears that’s an AR 15. Shouldn’t be shooting at targets that close with an AR 15.
https://x.com/steveguest/status/1848889368288919883?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Josh Hawley-“I condemn all acts of violence against reporters and call on Kunce never to shoot another one 😂😂😂
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LOL way to go Hawley
Exactly scooter. What was he doing, he should know better
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lol
“Hi, I’m JD Vance. I wrote my own book, unlike Kamala Harris, who copied hers from Wikipedia.”
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All the suburban moms I know work outside the home. They can pay for their own trips. Thankfully, my wife is a partner at a large firm so she pay for my trips.
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So he was shooting and happened to hit somebody. Not a good look and obvious poor gun safety but the headline made it seem like an intentional shooting.
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If anyone is trying to figure out House of Representative seats that might be flippable this cycle, take a look at MD CD 6 which borders me in western MD.
Neil Parrott (R) challenging the D again. the 2022 drawing of the District does not help Parrott. I think he has a shot.
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According to the RCP betting average Harris has now just dipped below 38% and now at 37.9%.
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So its not about Trump? Kinzinger is campaigning against Senate Republicans?
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Over half of the TV ads I see out DC stations that Alsobrooks (D-Crazy) is putting up against Larry Hogan (Sane Person) are about ABORTION.
Various serious females are used in each ad.
They say “they can’t trust Hogan. He is personally pro-life and he will vote pro life.” (despite the fact that his record as governor where he fully funded Planned Parenthood, etc. and publicly stating many, many times for many, many years that he wants to protect women’s right to choose and that the decision should be between a woman and her doctor–Hogan’s own TV ads reiterate this very clearly).
And, of course, they tie Hogan to Trump–I raise they are both part of the Republican cabal.
“If the Rs gain control in the Senate, they will pass DONALD TRUMP’S Project 2025 and they will outlaw abortion, force women to have babies, and outlaw IVF as well.”
******************
I get very upset when I see these Alsobrooks ads which so contort and distort the truth on various levels.
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Kunce:
Wins the poorest attempt at damage control of the month.
“Great day at the range today with my friend @AdamKinzinger. We got to hang out with some union workers while exercising our freedom. Always have your first aid kit handy. Shrapnel can always fly when you hit a target like today, and you’ve got to be ready to go”
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Only if you are way too close to the target.
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Drudge Report is all about Trump being Hitler. Pretty sick, they are really desperate.
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I haven’t gone to drudge I. Years. I didn’t realize they went full 180 and now are on the left. I take it Matt drudge sold to someone
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and yes. Kinzongrr is full on campaigning against Republican candidates. Not just Trump
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Drudge is worse than MSNBC now.
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VictrC, don’t have a clue about The Drudge Report and why/how it changed….heard all kinds of rumours from Matt selling himself to another family member or even selling himself to the devil like Howard Stern and becoming a pawn for the progressive left.
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shame. It used to be my go to site a few times a day but it hasn’t been in probably five years or even more
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ok folks. Our overnight question
hiw are we feeling about the election. I know Bitter thinks Trump loses and will until after they actually declared he won…and maybe a couple days after that (we love you Bitter. Just some fun razzing. You can’t do that to people down here. I miss that about ny)
how about the rest of you. Are we getting over confident with the polls and just how horrendous a candidate Harris is. Or are we jaded.
I read all those comments on wapo article linked earlier today and they are all beyond confident that the strong, intelligent, caring and exceptional Harris is winning
no offense, Hillary Clinton was/is an intelligent, well educated, experienced woman. Harris is no Clinton (btw Clinton’s policies are horrible so don’t think in commending her, but don’t underestimate either). Harris can’t hold her support hose
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Trump has the advantage based on early voting + the recent polling. We will see if the trends continue, but I am reasonably optimistic as of today.
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intersting. So much for all younger voters being for the Democrat
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I am looking forward to the Rogan interview. I wonder if they have decided on the length of the interview. Obviously Trump can end things early or go longer based on how he thinks it is going, but I am guessing it is 90 minutes.
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I don’t trust the polls. Surely, the pollsters have gotten the samples right this time. But, I doubt it.
I also wonder how powerful abortion is. Allred is making that his campaign against Cruz.
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that’s all Allred has, scare them about not being able to abort babies because of convenience to get young women riled up.
I’m sorry, if Beto, running in a perfect cycle can’t best Cruz, this no neck loser is not going to beat him. I’m calling this one 54%-45.5% Cruz
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Emerson poles:
Trump plus 8 Florida
Trump plus 7 Texas
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NT
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