Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
130 responses to “New thread until we get new polls.”
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Casey running ads that he works well with Trump.
McCormick should “pounce” on that and say if you want someone who will work well with Trump vote for me.
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We have to remember the Trump campaign is urging early and VBM votes, so this means the GOP election day turnout is going to be smaller than in 2020.
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Bad news from Babylon Bee,
“Trump Forced To Cancel Campaign Rallies For Next Two Weeks As Time Off Request Denied By McDonald’s Manager”
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LOL
“Nation Shudders To Imagine How Horrifying The Incriminating Photos Are That Kamala Has Of Mark Cuban”
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Early vote numbers considerations.
One caveat in early vote numbers is to consider is that the early and mail in numbers in 2020 are not actually a great comparison PERCENTAGE wise because it was the Covid election. I wouldn’t get too excited yet on those percentages.
Early RAW totals by county and party are more subjective and a better indicator…but we don’t know yet how the GOP early vote is cannibalizing Election Day vote because the GOP never pushed it in past elections.
Regardless Trump has serious momentum and the GOP is early voting in greater numbers.
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Shapiro can’t explain Kamala’s fracking policy and quotes Biden in ’87 and then says she should “explain” herself.
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there are some analysts who claim they have numbers for they early voting of low propensity voters and they say the GOP is doing a better job at shaking the trees to find these and lock them in for Trump
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but we don’t know yet how the GOP early vote is cannibalizing Election Day vote because the GOP never pushed it in past elections.”
They are cannibalizing votes, that is clear. But are they netting votes from low propensity voters that might not have voted on ED? That would be a big plus..
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DW beat me to make the same point.
GFY
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DW, my contacts say there are some good signs in VA. Basically my Amish neighbors say their cousins in VA think the English there think Trumph could win.
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LOL, Tina.
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Don’t worry. Nate Silverfish will adjust Nevada. And ralston will spin later today.
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Ralston: “A very big day for Republicans in NV: They now have a rare statewide lead, have reduced the Clark firewall to almost nothing and the rural landslides are immense.
Long way to go, but Republicans had a historic day.”
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General election poll
🔵 Harris 50% (+4)
🔴 Trump 46%
Morning Consult #C – 8570 LV – 10/20
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General election poll – New York
🔵 Harris 58% (+19)
🔴 Trump 39%
Congress – 04
🔵 Gillen 53% (+12)
🔴 D’Esposito (Inc) 41%
Siena #A – 872 LV – 10/17
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NEVADA poll
🔴 Trump: 47.9% (+0.2)
🔵 Harris: 47.7%
InsiderAdvantage | 10/19-20 | N=800LV
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Its one thing for Rasmussen to say Trump leads Latino voters by 11 points, but could you imagine what would happen if it was Suffolk saying that?
Oh wait, it WAS Suffolk.
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Are you better off than 4 years ago
Worse 52%
Better 36%
Gallup
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Lol
CNBC just said that Kamala has left policy discussion on taxes to be handled by Mark Cuban in the final two weeks of the campaign out of fear she’ll screw up and alienate people.
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Repost of the GA early voting data I posted late last night with a comment:
Comparing the early voting data thru 10/21 to the final 2020 data, Whites are currently +2.8%, Blacks -0.3%, and other/unknown -2.5%. Assume as a rough proxy, Whites are heavily R and the Blacks/others are heavily D. I am guessing a net on the order of 3-4% towards the Rs. Also, I saw posted here that the first day of 2020 early voting was 48% white and 40% black, whereas this year it was closer to 57-30. This means that the early voting skewed White after Day 1. If that continues this year, and the 10/21 data is consistent with that, the final 2024 margin will be even larger as compared to 2020.
GA early voting stats
10/21
White 61.0%
Black 25.6%
Other/Unknown 13.4%
Overall 2024
White 59.3%
Black 27.4%
Oth/Unk 13.3%
2020 Final
White 56.5%
Black 27.7%
Oth/Unk 15.8%
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Mark Cuban is looking a lot like Rachel Madcow.
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Repost:
Altlanta Journal Constipation (AJC) has trump plus 4 in Georgia
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Lol
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I think someone showed Cuban the internal polling.
BREAKING: Mark Cuban says he would be willing to work with the Trump administration if asked.
“I’m America first.”
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JON RALSTON: “It’s too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.”
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BREAKING: Kamala Harris campaign is bracing for potential losses in Michigan and North Carolina (NBC)
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so far so good in Nevada
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BayernFan, welcome back.
Rasmussen Reports sent out warning that they got a huge dem outlier last night, with Biden approval at 48%. Be prepared for a Kamala lead in their tracker.
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Joe Biden is p!ssed that Kamala did not follow his proved election strategy of never going out and campaigning and hiding in his basement.
Kamala was doing much better in the polls when nobody knew who she was.
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GOP pouring it on again in day 2 of Florida in person voting:
Republican 717,201 40.79%
Democrat 686,999 39.08%
No Party Affiliation 318,170 18.10%
Other 35,734 2.03%
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Mark Halperin: “Here is “The Morning Meeting,” on which I report what my sources are saying: If the trajectory of early voting continues like it is now (IF IF IF), we will know on Election Day that Donald Trump has won, even before the polls open.
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NBC: “There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan.
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Halperin doesn’t really know anything but he is willing to make a prediction (like he did about Biden quitting) and if it works out he looks like a genius and if it doesn’t nobody will remember. But if it triggers the moonbats fine with me.
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I voted early yesterday here in Texas (first day of early voting). About a thirty minute wait in line which moved fairly quickly. I live in a rural area and the electorate here is overwhelmingly Trump.
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I very much doubt Trump would lose Wisconsin if he wins Michigan.
Taking bets.
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And btw, welcome back Bayern.
Let’s see who else crawls out of the woodwork.
I don’t think we will see either Amoral Scumbag or the Biden Troll here unless Trump loses.
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jason is right…
The consensus has always been that Wisconsin is the easiest of the two, and some I have read say Wisconsin is easier than Pennsylvania.
So yes, if Michigan goes Trump, Wisconsin already did, and likely with a wider margin.
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Faux news showed the trump +4 ga pole from AJC.
Subparino indicated it’s “super tight.”
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
33m
🚨 BREAKING: PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICANS have out-requested Democrats for mail-in ballots AGAIN today!
🔴 Republican: +12,900
🔵 Democratic: +9,500
Republicans also GAINED 2.2 POINTS on the mail-in returns in a SINGLE DAY.
Mail-in REQUESTS also got redder again.
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How is the search for missing person Robbie going?
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Here is the nbc article about quemalas concerns with Nc and Mi (and the blue wall):
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-brace-crack-blue-wall-signs-north-carolina-slipping-rcna176046
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Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
9h
The early voting blog is updated!
A very big day for Republicans in NV: They now have a rare statewide lead, have reduced the Clark firewall to almost nothing and the rural landslides are immense.
Long way to go, but Republicans had a historic day.
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In my hood, 4 yard signs for quemala. 1 trump yard sign (not me).
No bumper stickers at all. There were some for her Thighness, and even less for demented.
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The Jimmy Hoffa disappearance has nothing on the Robbie mystery.
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Breaking
Quemala is off the campaign trail today. She will be in dc and will do two interviews. One with telemundo and the other with nbc.
I am sure she will be given the questions ahead of time and they will edit the answers (like 60 minutes).
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I’ve been saying for a month that Trump will win Wisconsin if the polling shows he is within a couple points. Trump has ALWAYS overperformed his polling aggregate in Wisconsin. I agree that if he wins Michigan, he most likely wins Wisconsin by more.
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Yikes
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/21/kamala-harris-turns-back-against-fracking/
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Yep, this is why they do the trick of poll, hold, and then release later if they need it to create a narrative….from NBC:
“Detroit News poll conducted Oct. 1-4 found Harris, who was campaigning in Michigan on Monday, holding a slight lead in the state, as did a Washington Post poll on Monday.”
see how it works? They mention the dates on the Detroit news poll, then say Washington Post poll was on Monday. It was RELEASED on Monday, but the poll itself started back in September.
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Who the hell takes off with 14 days left?
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I am not going to question the logic of Trump’s campaign strategy, as it seems to have been pretty well disciplined so far, though I am not sure about he McDonalds thing.
But I am starting to wonder if that Colorado or California rally might not have been better to have been in Santa Fe or Albuquerque, New Mexico.
This state has been under the radar for so long, and a huge rally there might be enough to make it close to a flip, at least closer than either CO or CA.
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Harris had added a campaign rally in Houston, Texas !!!
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NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
@Rasmussen_Poll
| 10/16-17, 20-21 | N=3,569LV
Not as bad as I feared, given they took on a huge Dem poll from yesterday.
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CNN talking about how Trump “sounds like Fidel Castro”.
I thought the commies liked Fidel….
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LOL going to Houston is like going to Chicago or Detroit or NYC or LA. I think she’s just reacting to Trump going to her territory by scheduling a “texas” rally in one of the only cities in Texas that would have her, along with Austin and parts of Dallas.
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She will get a nice money haul from Houston liberals, that is why she is going there
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I am sure she will also have a McDonald’s appearance.
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for those keeping score at home, the last 2020 poll from University of Georgia/AJC was Trump 46, Biden 47. Now they have Trump up 4 over Kamala.
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More forced diversity votes, I mean immigration. Worked so well for Europe, why not here,
A plan championed by Vice President Kamala Harris on the presidential campaign trail would import more migrants to American cities and towns through the Diversity Visa Lottery — an immigration program infamous for bringing a convicted Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist to the United States.
Last week, in an exclusive sit-down interview on Fox News Channel’s Special Report, Harris praised the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021. That legislation includes a broad amnesty for most of the nation’s 11 to 22 million illegal aliens, and would ensure they are fast-tracked into naturalized American citizenship.
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One sign that its not going well for Dems in Nevada: Ralston has stopped talking about the election and started talking about himself:
Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
1h
Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
On this date in 1984, I started at @reviewjournal
as the new night cops reporter, my first job. I would be here for 2 years max, on my career path to the NYT.
Rest is history.
Happy 40th to me!
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Literally every refresh, the GOP’s lead in Florida grows:
Republican 770,377 41.44%
Democrat 715,620 38.49%
No Party Affiliation 335,239 18.03%
Other 37,777 2.03%
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40 years of Dem hackery.
Zzzzz….
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With two weeks to go until Election Day, Kamala Harris’ top advisers are staring down numbers that show a wide majority of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track.
They’re also confident that the next two weeks will include Donald Trump dropping more references to the “enemy within” or January 6 as a “day of love” and going off on rambling tangents like his lewd remarks about golf legend Arnold Palmer at a Pennsylvania rally last week. And they expect they’ll be able to trigger him into making more outlandish claims.
Getting Americans to focus on that over the next two weeks, to see a second Trump term as taking the country further off track and to view Harris as an acceptable agent of change is likely to decide the presidency, a dozen top aides and outside allies told CNN. As Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told top donors in Philadelphia during a retreat last week, they may not believe that the race could still be tied, but in the battleground states where the presidency will be won, it is.”
There you have it.
Demonize Trump.
That is the final 2 week strategy.
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It is enemy within and Arnold Palmer’s junk and abortion vs. inflation, cost of living, crime and immigration.
May the best candidate win.
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and every single time someone fuels up the car or pays for their groceries, they see an ad for Trump and against Harris. And Trump team doesn’t have to spend a dime to air those ads.
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Quemala is also off the trail tomorrow doing a Cn and n town hall.
so, she is takin 2 days off.
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The problem for Harris is, the voters she needs to connect with, are tuning that stuff out. Demonizing Trump doesn’t work anymore. The man has been demonized more than any other Candidate in the History of politics, for the last 8 years. It would have to be something new, and substantial in order to change minds.
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Hearing impaired people only source:
More drama is unfolding in the Harris campaign. Gwen Walz angrily cancelled a campaign event focused on reproductive rights scheduled for today in Maine after Kamala spoke to Tim Walz to tell him his wife’s overbearing attitude was hurting her with male voters. The joy is gone.
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Here’s a thought to ponder today. If in 1980 we had the push for early voting like we do today Jimmy Carter might, just might have been re-elected. If I remember correctly I believe that Carter’s campaign manager at that time, Pat Caddell, had Carter with a slight lead going into the last weekend of October.
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For me it is quite telling the reactions to the early voting results, much more than the results themselves. The dangers of early voting misinterpretation include:
But early voting turnout can indicate enthusiasm particularly when data is collected around party ID, race, etc. If some are not enthused to vote early when the party is encouraging them to do so, why would they become enthused to vote on election day?
And here is where the reactions are helpful. The biggest Dem explanation I am seeing is that THIS year, they are going to vote on election day. But this is not the strategy. They are pushing early voting hard, but its not working. Another explanation is that they are saying Trump is SO HATED that Republicans, and especially independents are turning out early to vote against him. But that sounds more like they are wishing and hoping, and casting their own view on the other side.
In short, early voting has two reactions. The GOP is enjoying the ride, and apparently getting out low propensity voters and banking them early, while the DEMS are out there explaining and making excuses.
That’s what I take away from the early voting data.
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Redfield & Wilton national –
Trump plus 2 – 47
quemala -45.
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Trump lead Harris for the first time in the Redfield & Wilton poll
General election poll
🔴 Trump 47% (+2)
🔵 Harris 45%
Last poll – 🔵 Harris +2
Redfield #D – LV – 10/21
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Chit Tina !!!
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What is their obsession with Trump’s off the cuff, very brief, and kinda funny comment about Palmer.
They are obsessed with it. This from a party of Tranny’s who wave their junk in front of kids at parades
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I was too busy writing my comments on early voting, I missed the chance to BOOM the new Redfield and Wilton. This is a far left UK pollster that badly missed in 2020.
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Weird. Demented and Ccp Bernie are campaigning in Nh today.
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Anything to “distract” for her remarks kicking out the two faith persons at her rally. And missing the Catholic event.
All because you cannot relate to anyone and are a faith bigot.
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GOP inching closer to taking an outright early vote lead in Miami-Dade:
Miami-Dade
GOP: 60,875
DEM: 72,626 (D+6.6)
OTH: 41,437
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Is New Hampshire in play?
You decide:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
5m
🚨 BREAKING: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are visiting New Hampshire today to tout Biden-Harris administration policies, campaign for Harris (WMUR)
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Not sure that Biden and Sanders are the right messengers to win over independent/undecided New Hampshire voters.
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In Virginia, 1,113,307 have voted so far. One-fourth the total number who voted in 2020.
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Seth Keshel
@RealSKeshel
Florida is an apocalypse for Democrats right now.
Was D+7% turnout edge for mail, then in person early started yesterday and it is now over R+3% at lunchtime. I am watching Duval County, which is a perfect mirror for GA for the past two decades, which is possible to flip to R+ by the end of the day, but certainly by tomorrow.
Florida historically moves the same direction (hard right in 2024, clearly) as PA and MI in every single election since 1948, except of course for the safest and most secure election of all time (TM) in 2020.
Bad bad bad news if you’re on team DEI.
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NEW NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 46%
Last poll: Harris+3
UMass | 10/11-16 | N=1,500LV
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CNN and MSNBC are all about the “enemy within”, and how it proves Trump is a fascist.
But didn’t Biden says the biggest threat to American Democracy was white supremacists?
Wasn’t that a “threat from within”?
A friend wants to know,
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Maybe we should bring up the election to next Tuesday and not wait for Nov 5.
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Mike Jeffries, former CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch, has been arrested on charges related to sex trafficking, sources tell CNN
Another Werner/Epstein elite perv gets caught.
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*Wexner/Epstein
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Kamala will announce “economic benefits” specifically for Latino men on Telemundo tonight.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk is “buying votes”.
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Btw, speaking of pervs, looks like Harvey Weinstein was diagnosed with bone cancer.
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Meanwhile, student loan forgiveness marches on, buying more votes.
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National poll: UMass/YouGov
🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟪 Other: 3%
Last poll (7/29-8/1) – 🔵 Harris +3
—— 4 (3.0/3.0) | 1,320 RV | 10/11-
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CBS News Producer Wonders: ‘Are Jews Really Human Like Us?’
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Chit DW !!!
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Someone should add up the cost of all programs and giveaways that the Dems have promised so far in this election season.
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Scooter is one sore A-hole…..
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bone cancer. That’s a tough one and very painful. No comment beyond that
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Tim Walz to campaign in Kentucky — Courier Journal
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How can she promise a program designed specifically to one ethnic group and specifically to one gender. Doesn’t that break about a thousand laws…all written by the left?
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RCP betting average….60.1-38.4%. So as of now and as I understand it this race is no longer a toss-up.
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“Doesn’t that break about a thousand laws…all written by the left?”
yes, but these promises would never see the light of day, just fooling people for the next two weeks to get their votes.
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Woah, Duval county Florida, the GOP closing quickly, about to take the lead:
Duval
GOP 27,113
DEM 27,676 (D+0.9)
OTHER 8,320
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okay, lets review some of the Florida polling:
Trump +4, Redfield and Wilton, Marist, and PPP
Trump +5, RMG Research
Trump +3, Morning Consult, Emerson
Trump +3, FAU
Trump +1, The Bullfinch Group
These polls are ALREADY not aging well. Far more likely based on the early voting data that NY Times/Siena will be closer to truth at Trump +14
If I had to guess, I would say Trump +10 right now.
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its only Day 2 of early voting in Florida, and Dems only lead in 12 counties, with some about to flip, and some because in person voting hasn’t opened up yet.
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GOP leads in 55 Florida counties.
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Ralston today…
…chirp……chirp……chirp…..
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Did anybody answer when/why Eric (misspelled) Daugherty became so influential at HHR?
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btw welcome back Bayern!!
im beginning to wonder if this might be a turnout election. All those marginal republicans who didn’t vote in 2020 because either of COVID (and its harsh mandates which pissed them off) or who just didn’t think they needed to vote, are coming back after seeing what four years of Dem control can do.
part of me believes GOP turnout this year is going to overwhelm the polls and it’s not being accounted for in the opinion polls.
btw – anyone want to take bets on “exit polls” being grossly over exaggerated from Komrade?
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Trump or no Trump, the future of of America is socialism…
“Meanwhile, 78 percent of respondents plan to vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
Professors will overwhelmingly vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in the coming weeks, according to a new survey.
Inside Higher Ed surveyed more than 1,000 professors, mostly “tenured or tenure track,” and found significant support for the Democratic presidential ticket.
“Seventy-eight percent support Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz, while only 8 percent of the respondents back Donald Trump and JD Vance, according to the survey, which has a 2.9 percent margin of error,” the publication reported.”
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Eric Daugherty (sic) is much like https://x.com/IAPolls2022
In that the moment a poll is released anywhere, he posts it immediately. Quicker than going to RCP or 538. So its a convenience. The IAPolls2022 often takes several days off…but this Eric guy from Florida doesn’t sleep. Its insane.
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bone cancer. That’s a tough one and very painful. No comment beyond that”
Actually, in his case it is a bone marrow cancer, a type of leukemia. Treatable if they get it early.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
6m
🚨 JUST IN: The left-wing newspaper “Los Angeles Times” has decided NOT TO ENDORSE Kamala Harris for president.
The Times has endorsed every Democratic presidential candidate since 2008.
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The New York Times can’t decide if the McDonalds visit was “staged” or whether Trump should really know how to make french fries.
So we get some real in depth reporting here, I tell you…
The New York Times
“He doesn’t seem to know how to do it.” After Donald Trump served fast food during a campaign stop at a McDonald’s, several actual McDonald’s workers who examined a video of his performance earned mixed reviews from workers and patrons alike.
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So maybe he can only be President, he can’t work at McDonalds.
You can’t have everything.
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Trump on Joe Rogan – this Friday
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Campaign source confirms Trump interview with Joe Rogan is happening Friday at his studio in Austin, TX
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https://x.com/Brick_Suit/status/1848338560618766651/photo/1
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Old McDonalds’s commercial featuring Trump.
80’s?
https://x.com/MsLadyPatriot68/status/1848388275108508054
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This is an unforced error by Kamala, maybe by her staff. Going back to fracking with a muddled message now is going to cost her votes in PA.
US Oil & Gas Association
@US_OGA
So Harris’s new position in Oct is she now opposes fracking and no longer supports her position in July when she changed her position to support fracking which was subsequently a change in her prior, prior position of June which was to oppose fracking? Got it.
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Is Eric (misspelled) Daugherty credible or just a more prominent version of Polaris?
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There is a new state and Kamala is leading in it.
I hate to break the bad news.
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump among independent voters in the battleground state of George, according to a new poll.
But the vice president has other grounds to make up if she wants to win the state against the former president, who leads overall 47% to 43% — which is just outside the margin of error, per the the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. Eight percent said they are still undecided.
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Is Eric (misspelled) Daugherty credible or just a more prominent version of Polaris?”
He is legitimate
He doesn’t skew polls like Polaris.
He just cherry picks them and adds his opinion.
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New Thread
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Did anybody answer when/why Eric (misspelled) Daugherty became so influential at HHR?”
He is big on X because he always has good news for Rs and is quick to post any favorable polls to Republicans.
He does not have any “inside information”, he basically puts polls up and comments on them.
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