 | FLORIDA |
| Univ. of N. Florida | 10/7-10/18; 977 LV |
| Trump | 53 |
| Harris | 43 |
| ActiVote | 9/23-10/20; 800 LV |
| Trump | 54.6 |
| Harris | 45.4% |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
41 responses to “First day of in person early voting in Florida and two new polls showing its not in play”
First
LikeLike
its only ActiVote, but here it is:
OHIO Senate poll
🔴 Moreno: 51.9% (+3.8)
🔵 Brown: 48.1%
ActiVote | 9/23-10/20 | N=400LV
LikeLike
https://x.com/prattaaron/status/1848097793120113119/photo/1
LikeLike
RCP average back up to Harris + 1 but that would still give Trump the win.
LikeLike
Interesting table by MSNBC no less.
But again, the “polling error” is not a given.
LikeLike
The last six national poles on rcp are as follows:
Quemala plus 1 on two poles.
Trump plus 2 on two poles.
Trump plus 3 on one pole
Trump plus 1 on one pole.
LikeLike
Looks like the first day of in person fl voting is going well for the Rs. Quemala continues to underperform.
I would be surprised at plus 9/10 point poles in Florida. I see trump winning it by 7/8. Anything else is extra.
LikeLike
There is a rumor of a strong Pa pole for trump incoming. We shall see.
LikeLike
Definitely an improvement from the +4 and +5 polls were were seeing that were only countered by one Ras poll.
But at some point in the last 2 weeks the MSM is going to launch a “Kamala momentum” or “comeback” meme, bet on it.
LikeLike
I think someone needs to charge loon Cheney with witness tampering and Hutchinson needs to be charged with perjury.
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
52m
🚨 BREAKING: PENNSYLVANIA GOP LANDSLIDE in the last week of voter registration.
🔴 Republican: +27,673
🔵 Democratic: +12,722
LikeLike
I am not ready yet to make my predictions but I would rather be Trump now than Kamala. My reasons:
LikeLike
They don’t seem to include Bashars democracy pole, or I don’t see it. Plus they have morning consult and other garbage, but here are their poles. The statement made by this author also seems reasonable:
https://twitter.com/sethjlevy/status/1848369186248048785?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
LikeLike
Awwww…
https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/anti-israel-group-abandon-harris-expands-into-battlegrounds-wisconsin-and-georgia-to-ensure-kamala-harris-loses-the-swing-states/
LikeLike
Nervous, Rob?
Rob Reiner
In 15 days we’ll know whether we still live in a Democracy or a Fascist State. Oh, and the Convicted Felon is a shit candidate.
LikeLike
Free Steve Bannon.
LikeLike
Order for your friends…
https://x.com/DanielDuguay87/status/1848085757270856035/photo/1
LikeLike
Rob Reiner
“In 15 days we’ll know whether we still live in a Democracy or a Fascist State.”
Absolutely agree. Trump will restore Democracy, but God forbit it should Kamala win, its the end of our freedoms and we go fully communist.
LikeLiked by 1 person
This seems silly to me. I know they have plenty of money, but why throw a million bucks at a race in New Mexico when there are much closer races to spend on?
The DSCC is jumping into the New Mexico Senate race. The group is placing a coordinated buy with Martin Heinrich. So far, they’ve reserved $95k. Ads start tomorrow.
Aired spending in #NMSen:
🔵$6.2m 🔴$5.6m
Future reservations:
🔵$1.1m 🔴$0
LikeLike
Tina, Bannon will be released from federal prison either 10/29 or 11/1, safely incarcerated during election prime time. But, that’s how the Dems control their opposition, by censoring/shutting down free speech or curtailing their visibility.
It’s ironic, though, during Trump’s presidency he never jailed, harassed opponents with lawfare tactics, or limited/censored their lies, only disputed them, humiliating opponents in the process However, the leftist press, Dems and their acolytes are screaming fearfully about all of the above happening to them should Trump win. Musk mentioned such flagrant leftist hypocrisy in reminding people how he purchased the Twitter platform to restore free speech for everyone, including leftist and opponents opinions full of “misinformation.”
LikeLike
The Clark “firewall” was 40,000 after Day 1 in 2020.
Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
10m
Clark early vote for Sunday posted: Rs won by 2,200, D firewall in Clark about 9K. Will update blog soon.
LikeLike
The RCP betting average now has Harris below 40% (39%) which, if I understand correctly, is outside the toss-up range.
Also, as of last night the 538 now has Trump up 53-47% which is slightly higher than in the previous days.
LikeLike
Ralston just updated a minute ago…D firewall at 8600 in Clark county and 3000 statewide.
LikeLike
John, where does that put the R now compared to prior elections and is there any chance to overthrow Rosen
LikeLike
DW – here is the poll of NM you are always asking for!!! Also, Univ of North Florida telling us Scott is in trouble in FL…LOL
New Mexico: Albuquerque Journal Harris 50, Trump 41%
Florida Senate – Univ. of North Florida Scott 49%, Mucarsel-Powell 46%
LikeLike
saw those polls Vic, thanks…just updating the history pages with them, as there is no time to do that and new threads…that NM poll is one point improvement for Trump from their prior poll.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Vic, don’t really know, but it sure sounds and looks very low-the D firewall. I’l have to investigate it further.
LikeLike
Zzzzz…. Ralston talked about the “firewall” incessantly in 2022 but then predicted Ds would win anyway even after it was gone due to last minute mail ins. Then the Dems kept counting votes until the R senate candidate lost, even if they couldn’t save Sisolak. But the senate race was much more important.
He just wants people to click on his site so he can feed them more partisan trash by pretending the race is close and exciting before Dems win.
Anyone who believes anything this lying hack says is a moron.
LikeLike
Ralston not sounding like a cheerleader this time, quite subdued:
“I’ll have context soon, but suffice it to say, this is below what D numbers were at the same time in 2020, although not sure that comparison is apt. All about the indies in Clark, folks. Which way will they go?”
Sounds like special pleading, “don’t compare to 2020, and maybe the indies will save us!”
LikeLike
Vic, the only thing I know as of now is that Biden won Clark county in 2020 by 91,000 votes…
LikeLiked by 1 person
GOP quickly closing in on taking lead in early vote in Florida, now that the in person has started.
LikeLike
Florida is going to be a rout of the Dems.
And Dems depending on Indy voters in Nevada means they are going to lose there too.
LikeLike
https://x.com/NolteNC/status/1848384698646491435?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
LikeLike
Ralston not sounding like a cheerleader this time, quite subdued”
That is his M.O. he never “sounds” like a cheerleader, he wants to pretend he is not a partisan Dem hack.
But note he will always have an “out” for the Dems no matter what the numbers show.
LikeLike
Can someone explain why Doltz is campaigning in NY today? He has 2 stops there.
LikeLike
Latest scare tactic by Dems: “Social Security in 6” Trump is going to drain social security in six years and grandma won’t have any way to buy food.
I kid you not.
LikeLike
Yes drain social security by giving it to illegals instead (along with Medicare).
LikeLike
Doltz is in NYC today.
LikeLike
NEW THREAD
LikeLike
The Cato Institute recently completed a white paper grading the fiscal policies of governors in all 50 states. What they primarily found was:
”All the governors receiving an A on this year’s report are Republicans, and all the governors receiving an F are Democrats. Republican governors tend to focus more on tax cuts and spending restraint than do Democrats.”
Kim Reynolds of Iowa received the highest grade (A), while, Tim Walz of Minnesota was dead last, receiving the lowest grade (F).
https://www.cato.org/white-paper/fiscal-policy-report-card-americas-governors-2024
LikeLike
NEW 2024 PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ELECTION POLL: QUANTUS INSIGHTS 🚨
🔴 Trump: 50.3%
🔵 Harris: 48.2%
🟡 Other: 1.5%
——
Who do you think most of your friends or neighbors will vote for?
🔴 Trump: 52%
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 Not sure: 2%
840 Likely Voters | October 17-20, 2024
LikeLike