According to new polling from East Carolina University taken 10/9 – 10/14 against 701 LVs
![]() | GEORGIA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 46 |


Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
![]() | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
According to new polling from East Carolina University taken 10/9 – 10/14 against 701 LVs
![]() | GEORGIA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 46 |
80 responses to “Trump up 3 in Georgia”
First. Hear that, Scooter?
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Second. The Mets final position in the National League.
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Not much history on East Carolina University. Their final 2020 poll of NC was Trump 48, Biden 50, off three points.
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I remember when Jason and Wes used to talk about drinking red wine, cigars, and steak. I guess wine is bad now.”
Zzzzz.. Bitter is now going to pretend he doesn’t know what “wine sipping liberal women” refers to.
Just like he pretends he doesn’t know what “country club Republicans” refers to.
I guess he never heard about “soccer moms” either.
Of course, he knows that it doesn’t mean all women who drink wine are liberals, that all country club Republican have to belong to a country club, or that all soccer moms have to have kids playing soccer.
What is important to him is to defend woke at all costs.
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According to Bitter, “wine moms” don’t exist.
https://forgeorganizing.org/article/democrats-should-take-wine-moms-seriously
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”First. Hear that, Scooter?”
BASTARD !!!!
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Silver: “Today’s update. Harris’s lead in national polls is down to 2.3 points from a peak of 3.5 on 10/2. The race remains a toss-up, but we’re at a point now where we can be pretty confident this is real movement and not statistical noise.”
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Over at the 538 simulation machine it now is a 52-48 race….wasn’t this a 63-37 about 30 days ago?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/18/nolte-trump-vance-now-seen-more-favorable-caring-harris-walz/
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So Jason admits that these alleged catch-all phrases don’t actually apply to everybody in a group and are essentially worthless. Baby steps.
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So I watched a good amount of Trump at the Al smith Dinner, and had the displeasure of watching the horrendous Kamala skit. I think even the most ardent Trump hater here, Bitter, thought he did a good job, and found only minor faults.
Well…that’s not what the NYTimes told the world this morning. Trump’s performance was “Mr. Trump rushed through prepared remarks, stumbling at times as he read through pointed political jokes, bitter grievances and crude and at times profane personal attacks.”
Of course Harris was amazing, adept, and funny.
Best moment of the night (and I kid you not): When Trump praised Schumer and Gov. Hochul
I could go on and on, but I think you know the script. Trump was awful. Mean. Stuttered. Lost track and focus. Was mean. Crude. disrespectful to Trans.
Harris was light, funny, etc etc
Oh, and it was not a big deal she didn’t attend. Mondale didn’t in 1984.
This. My friends, this, is what the American people are fed, believe, follow and what we are fighting.
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With all due respect Bitter. they are terms used to identify a particular group of Republicans, are not meant to be literally…though they were actually appropriately labelled at one, and all have been in used for at least 30-40 years. Country Club Republicans go back to the Rockefeller days, wine sipping back to Reagan and Soccer Moms back to at least Clinton, if not Bush I.
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And over at a website called “Race to the WH” it is now a 52.8-47 race based upon their 50,000 simulations….stroll half way down and you’ll discover that Harris led on September 20th 60.3-39.4%
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024
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Jason never answered my challenge to find any post where I defended woke policies. In fact, he used to tell Tgca that I am not woke. But being a Second Tier A-hole makes him take shots at me as a Founding A-hole.
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Do you think Allan Lichtman might be getting a little nervous ???
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Just realized that if Trump wins then VP Harris must preside over Congress on Jan. 6, 2025 and certify the EVs and victory to Trump.
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With all due respect, Vic, while those terms were meant to be all-encompassing, they never were. They are intellectual shorthand and I prefer words to have accurate definitions and meanings.
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Here’s what Mark Halperin said would happen to those suffering from TDS if Trump wins….
“I say this not flippantly. I think it will be the cause of the greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country. I think that tens of millions of people will question their connection to the nation, their connection to other human beings, their connection to their vision of what their future for them and their children could be like. I think that it will require an enormous amount of access to mental health professionals. I think it will lead to trauma in the workplace. I think there’ll be some degree of protests.”
Yikes.
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Bad Hombre
@joma_gc
Major drama within the Kamala Harris campaign this morning. A source reveals that Harris screamed at and angrily berated her campaign manager Julie Chavez for over 30 minutes on the phone this morning. The source shares that Chavez advised Kamala not to attend the Al Smith dinner because it could send the wrong message and risk alienating LGBTQ and pro-abortion voters if she was seen cozying up to Catholics. Instead Chavez suggested a compromise of sending in the poorly-received video in lieu of an in-person appearance. Chavez was in tears during the phone call as Kamala shred her to pieces, called her an idiot, inept, horrible at your f-ing job, and told her that her stupid advice is going to be the reason she loses. The joy is gone.
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NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 46% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 45%
OnMessage (R) | 10/14-16 | N=800LV
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Sorry if already posted.
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Scooter already posted it. I don’t place much stock in “sources.”
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Kamala pushing the narrative that Trump is “ducking interviews” and “hiding away”
Here is what that looks like:
Greg Price
@greg_price11
President Trump did and interview with Tyrus and spoke at the Al Smith dinner yesterday, he then and did Fox & Friends this morning followed by a one hour livestream with Dan Bongino. Tonight, he is doing a rally in Detroit. Tomorrow, he is doing another rally in PA and a town hall in PA on Sunday.
oh yeah, ducking and hiding for sure!
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With all due respect Bitter. they are terms used to identify a particular group of Republicans, are not meant to be literally…though they were actually appropriately labelled at one, and all have been in used for at least 30-40 years. Country Club Republicans go back to the Rockefeller days, wine sipping back to Reagan and Soccer Moms back to at least Clinton, if not Bush I”
Bitter knows all that, Vic, but he is triggered at any “attack” on his friends and neighbors.
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They are intellectual shorthand and I prefer words to have accurate definitions and meanings”
Translation: I know what they mean but I cannot resist pretending I don’t.
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“Scooter already posted it. I don’t place much stock in “sources.”
No one listens to me. Perhaps everyone here is deaf.
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Silverhack beginning to waffle?
“Does Donald Trump have momentum in the race? Well, that’s a somewhat complicated question depending on what technically you mean by “momentum”. But he’s been gaining in our forecast, and had another good day today after cutting Harris’s lead to 2.3 points in national polls, down from a peak of 3.5 points on October 2. It remains an exceptionally close race, however.”
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Trying to an unbiased view of what I think will happen on Nov. 5 and which candidate is the better of the two in various regards…
BACKGROUND of candidates while in office:
TRUMP wins
–his 4 years as president were pretty good for the U.S., except for what happened when CROW-VID
Vs.
KAMALA who was VP for nearly 4 years when very little went right and good for the U.S.
_____________
MONEY
–Kamala wins this with $1 billion raised.
She has more billionaires supporting her, but claims she will be tough on billionaires and their money.
_______________
STYLE OF CAMPAIGN
—TRUMP gets the + here, despite him being his own worst enemy. Lots more energy than Harris
_________________
INTERNAL CAMPAIGN OPERATIONS
Trump wins this.
Kamala has been in disarray since day one. No plan, no policy, no different from Biden, has never gotten along with her staff as candidate in 2016, as VP (big turnover in her staff), she is a just poor campaigner
_____________________
BASE
Trump wins this hands down. During his presidency, he garnered enthusiastic support from his base.
Kamala has no base, that is why she came in dead last when she ran for POTUS on the D side.
__________________
IMMIGRATION ISSUE
Trump wins hands down.
___________________
TAX ISSUES
Trump wins, again hands down.
_________________________
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Trump again, running away with this due to Biden;Harris huge and constant foreign affairs disasters.
________________________
REVERSING THE WOKE AGENDA (men in women’s sports, transgender crap, etc.)
Trump again wins this going away.
Kamala wants to perpetuate the woke agenda
_________________________
INFLATION
Trump record vx. Biden/Harris record speaks for itself–which tied directly into the…
________________________
ENERGY POLICY ISSUE
Trump good. Kamala bad.
________________________
APPEALING TO FEAR TO MOTIVATE VOTERS
Kamala wins. “Trump will end democracy, become a dictator, lock up his political opponents, end social security and medicare, sign a law to ban all abortions in the U.S., he hates women, he is a criminal, J6, etc.”
_________________________
MAIN CAMPAIGN THEME
Trump wants to Make American Great Again
Kamala’s theme is I am not Donald Trump, He is despicable. I am not nearly as despicable as Trump. I am a much nicer person. True, I support many horrible policies. I may be inept, but I am not despicable.
Voters will choose whether to vote for inept, ruinous and nice
vs.
mean nutjob who supports much more sensible policies for the American people.
____________________
WHICH CANDIDATE IS MORE DIVISIVE
Tie.
____________________________
MOMENTUM (as of 10/18/2024)
Definitely Trump.
********************************************************
Trump should win handily. But he won’t. Still a fairly close election in ECV, which I think Trump wins. But he will lose the popular vote–because, hey it IS Trump.
Trump has really cut into the Dem stronghold of low information voters and he benefits from that. His worst demographic in the vote will be college educated women where he will get crushed. They HATE his STYLE. Women in general are more driven by emotion than logic. That is why many of us were able to marry our spouses, because we appealed to their emotion rather than their logic when we courted them.
*****************
I will do a final prediction of how key states will break on Nov 5. But I have been directed to go do yard work first.
Later, taters.
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I know what the terms are supposed to mean. However, because I don’t live a sheltered life like Mr, Irrelevant, I know they are largely inaccurate and refer to a fraction of groups rather than encompassing all.
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NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 47%
@Rasmussen_Poll
| 10/14-17 | N=2,666LV
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FINAL NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%
🟡 Undecided: 3%
@QuantusInsights
| 10/15-17 | N=1,045LV
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National pole – Rasmussen. Trump plus 2.
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Dw got it first. I did not reload it
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According to The Hill…
early voting=
North Carolina 353,166 early votes on the first day + 75,133 absentee votes
(2020 348,599 were cast the first day…didn’t mention how many absentee votes)
2024 early voting registration breakdown…D’s 36.3, R’s 34.7, unaffiliated 28.6
Georgia….as of Friday morning 932,000 early votes
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4940866-350000-ballots-cast-north-carolina-early-voting/
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Pennsylvania
https://thepostmillennial.com/exclusive-anonymous-letters-threatening-violence-mailed-to-trump-supporters-in-pennsylvania
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Georgia hits the one million mark after only 4 days of early voting.
https://capitol-beat.org/2024/10/georgia-hits-1-million-mark-in-early-voting/
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I hate early voting. I have always hated early voting. I will always hate early voting.
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little lite humor for our midday – little one turns 9 today and one of his gifts was a retro looking mini fridge. Set it up in the sort of “suite” he shares with his brother. His brother asked if he could put something in it, and he turns to him and deadpanned says, “It’s mine and you can’t put anything in…but, I’ll rent you space. $10 an item…and I know you can afford it because the tooth fairy left you $20 bucks last week.”
kids….
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WHERE THE CLOSE STATES WILL VOTE FOR PRESIDENT
GA–Trump
NC–Trump
AZ–Trump
NV–??? I think Kamala
MN–Kamala
WI–Trump
MI–Trump
PA–Trump (unless we again get the old Lucy pulls the football away at the last second)
NH–Kamala: a bridge too far for Trump in the north east
VA–Kamala: another bridge too far in the mid/Atlantic (or old south) Too many fed, government workers in NOVA. Sadly, I think other Rs (without the Trump hatred baked in) could have won VA this time around.
Trump wins electoral college, but loses the popular vote which will give the left something to bitch about for the next four years.
**********************
SENATE PREDICTIONS
MT: D “Battery” Tester gets beat. the R candidate with the “female/male” pronouns (Sheehy) who wins.
NV: “Brown Out” here, as D Rosen turns back the R Brown challenge.
AZ: R Lake loses. Again…. Lake ‘dries’ up as she fails to garner a ‘flood’ of supporters. Immediately after she loses the election, Lake will announce that she is running for some other office.
TX: Cruz does not cruise to an easy win, but prevails. Blue D Allred gets defeated as TX votes “ALL RED” which sinks Blue Allred.
WI: D lesbo Baldwin pulls away from R Hovde
MI: D Slotkin loses this “slot.”. R Mr. Rogers wins this neighborhood.
OH: D Brown loses, R Moreno (“The Sheep”) wins.
PA: D Casey wins. (hope I am wrong) Casey then ‘goes to bat’ for the D machine in D.C. McCormick is not “spicy” enough for PA voters. (unless he can get a bunch of mail in votes from venture capitalists in CT).
Bonus: WV: Justice will be served as R Justice wins as expected, but surprisingly gets slightly less than 60% of the vote
No surprises anywhere else.
No, in VA the great candidate with an even greater name, Hung Cao, will not come close to defeating D Tim Kaine.
(Sadly) the Cao will beaten by the Kaine. (which is a bad mental image to picture–and should be illegal)
Rs actually gain control of the Senate. (until some douchebag R senator or two in a few weeks decides to switch sides…)
*********************************
U.S. HOUSE PREDICTION
Rs actually gain a few seats over current setup of 221 R to 214 D.
After the election dust clears I say it will be 229 R to 206 D.
_______________________
Congress will again be fairly closely divided, so nothing will much will actually get done in the next 4 years, except arguing a lot
AND THEN, WHEN TRUMP IS INAUGURATED, THE WACK JOBS WILL CREATE MAHYEM IN DC and elsewhere on the streets…Probably seek to refuse accepting the certification of the election. Many ships will be leaving taking Oprah and others dissatisfied over the election results to go live in Europe.
The sale of tissues in the U.S. will soar after Trump wins. Buy Kleenex stock now.
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Time once again to summarize the battleground state polling, and I think its helpful to consider if you were team Trump, which specific poll in each state is your worst (like a reliable GOP firm showing you losing) and comparatively if you were team Harris, which specific poll in each state is your worst (like Quinnipiac saying you are way behind).
GEORGIA:
Harris has led in only 1 of the last 22 polls. Her worst poll is Quinnipiac, Trump +6
Trump’s worst poll is the Wall Street Journal, Harris +1
ARIZONA:
Harris has led in only 3 of the last 16 polls. Her worst poll is NY Times/Siena, Trump +5
Trump’s worst poll is the Wall Street Journal, Harris +2
NORTH CAROLINA:
Harris has led in only 1 of the last 19 polls. Her worst poll is roughly a tie between Redfield & Wilton, Trump +2 and Rasmussen, Trump +5
Trump’s worst poll is Quinnipiac, Harris +3
NEVADA:
Harris has led in 4 of the last 12 polls. Her worst poll is the Wall Street Journal, Trump +5
Trump’s worst poll is Morning Consult, Harris +4
PENNSYLVANIA:
Harris has led in 2 of the last 12 polls. Her worst poll is Rasmussen, Trump +3.
Trump’s worst poll is NY Times/Siena, Harris +4
MICHIGAN:
Harris has led in 4 of the last 14 polls. Her worst poll is Quinnipiac, Trump +3
Trump’s worst poll is Morning Consult, Harris +2
WISCONSIN:
Harris has led in 4 of the last 16 polls. Her worst poll is a tie between Quinnipiac, Trump +2 and Morning Consult, Trump +1
Trump’s worst poll is Wall Street Journal, Harris +1
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I was told those are all right wing polls that the GOP flooded the right leaning media with, and are disinformation
sadly the above is verbatim from a major network
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Georgia was 40 votes shy of 5 million votes cast in 2020. Looks like that number will be shattered this year. Damn those Jim Eagle voting laws
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Yikes Quemala is flip flopping again.
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Walt, here are my current (not final!) predictions:
Trump wins easily in FL and TX.
Trump wins fairly easily in NC and GA.
Trump wins a close race in AZ (fraud alert!), NV, WI, PA and MI.
Upset special: Trump wins Virginia.
NM, NH, and MN they cannot call right away, and Harris barely wins these.
Senate races:
Easy flips: WV, MT.
Holds: TX and FL turn out not to be as close as expected.
Mid-single digit flip: OH
I like our chances in MI, and I do think Hovde wins in WI. The tell here is Baldwin running ads praising Trump!
Sadly, McCormick will fall just short and Bitter and jason will be stuck with six more years of Casey voting hard-left while masquerading as a moderate.
Upset special. Just because, I think Hogan narrowly wins in Maryland.
Just as Trump will barely win Virginia, Hung Cao will barely lose. Hoping they both win of course.
In Minnesota, Senator Klobber will win, but much more narrowly than expected.
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Went to a training session for poll workers for the Nov. 5 election. About 35 people there to get the training, like me.
One of the prospective poll workers asks, “what if someone already voted during early voting period and then comes in on Nov. 5 and wants to vote again?
Election official says “If they want to vote, you must give them a ballot and let them vote.”
And other poll worker asks, “So I could go voter during early voting period 5 times, and then vote again on election day?”
Election officials starts talking about provisional ballots, etc, how the system would catch it if they voted more than once, etc.
I pull up state code on my phone , raise my hand and get called on. I read to everyone what it says in State Code: if a person knowingly and purposefully voted more than one time in the same election, that is a felony punishable by a fine of up to X dollars and a jail term of up to X months.
I should have also said that if a person ants to vote more than once and commit a felony we poll workers cannot prevent them from committing a felony and suffering the consequences when they get caught.
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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
2024 GE:
@ActiVoteUS
(with leans)
Trump: 51.1% (+2.2)
Harris: 48.9% — Trends Sept. 17 –
Harris +5.4 Sept. 24 –
Harris +2.8 October 2 –
Harris +1.4 October 8 –
Trump +1.2 October 17 –
Trump +2.2 — 1,000 LV | October 9-17 | ±3.1%
sample D+5
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lol, she sounds drunk.
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now it’s “traditional” for a POTUS candidate to have no plan, if elected:
MSNBC: “What is one policy you would’ve done differently than Biden?”
KAMALA: Vice presidents are not critical of their presidents. It’s tradition, and not productive.
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this time Tina beat me to it
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By the way, I will be setting up a predictions page linked off the main page where each of you can put your predictions into the comments, and then I will add them to a table in the main page.
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Some seriously credible, good analysis and predictions by both DW and Walt.
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”For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.”
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Breaking: trump adds Nh rally at “end of the month.”
Nh is in play.
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Everyone’s least favorite new pollster is back with new polls of the rust belt:
THE BULLFINCH GROUP
Wisconsin
Trump 46
Harris 48
Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Harris 49
Michigan:
Trump 43
Harris 51
This outfit continues to beclown itself. Their WI and PA numbers are within reason, but in no scenario does one of these three states move to an 8 point win, while leaving the others behind.
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Meanwhile, Trump is going to go to New Hampshire!
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There is a reason to not take Bullfinch seriously. They actually printed this in the release:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
6m
Really bizarre situation… so this “poll” is raw numbers.
They explicitly said to “weight this data to your liking” in the poll release. x.com/EricLDaugh/sta…
so apparently, they don’t have anyone on their staff who knows how to do polling.
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It seems every POTUS election year, there are a collection of “The Bullfinch Group” pollsters who show up, like FocalData, HighGround, and others who, try to make a splash, and then are never heard from again.
Here are several from 2020 that we have not heard from since. Anybody remember these?
ALG Research (D)
Alloy Analytics
Alvarado Strategies
Amber Integrated
Ascend Action
AYTM
Basswood Research (D)
Battleground Connect
Bendixen & Amandi International
Bold Decision
Bluegrass Data Analytics (D)
Blueprint Polling
Braun Research
Brilliant Corners Research
Bruno Political Consulting
BSP Research
Cardinal Point Analytics
Chism Strategies (D)
Citizen Data
Clearview Research
Climate Nexus
Clout Research
Cor Strategies
CPEC
Critical Insights
Data Targeting
DFM Research
DKC Analytics
EMC Research
Fallon Research & Communications
Faucheux Strategies
Fleming & Associates
FM3 Research
Frederick Polls
Garin-Hart-Yang Res. Grp (D)
Gonzales
Grassroots Targeting
Gravis Marketing
Harstad Strategic Res. (D)
Hart Research Associates (D)
Hill Research Consultants
HIT Strategies (D)
Info Strategy Northeast
JMC Analytics
KAConsulting
Kaplan Strategies
Keiser Family Foundation
Kiaer Research
Latino Decisions
Lighthouse Research
Listener Group (D)
Meeting Street Insights
Mellman Group
National Public Affairs – Bill Clinton’s favorite
NMB Research (R)
Neslon Research
Normington, Petts & Associates (D)
Ogden and Fry
Ohio Predictive Insights
Open Labs (D)
Opinion Diagnostics
Opinion Insight, LLC (D)
Opinion Works
Opinium
Osage Research
OurProgress.org
P2 Insights(R)
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)
Phillips Academy
Prime Group (D)
RABA Research
Ragnar Research Partners
RBI Strategies – The Mets could use this one
Research Affiliates
Sachs Media
St. Pete Polls
Schoen Cooperman Research
SEA Polling and Strategic Design (D)
Seven Letter Insight
Starboard Communications
Strategies 360
Swayable (D)
Target Insyght (D)
Target Point
Target Smart
The Justice Collaborative Institute
Tomahawk Strategies
Triton Polling & Research
Tulchin Research (D)
Tyson Group
Upswing Research
VCreek/AMG (R)
Victoria Res. & Consulting (D)
Victory Geek
Whitman Insight Strategies
Winston Group
Y2 Analytics
Zia Poll
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That was a stark answer from that panel of 4 MI voters. Whew, no wiggle room in their answers.
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I believe OH Predictive changed its name to Noble Insight or something like that so as to avoid the perception that they were Ohio based or Ohio centric in their polling.
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MI teamsters voted 62% to support Trump.
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Trump pushes bringing back manufacturing to this country via tariffs almost as much as he does closing the border.
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Thanks GF, I made a note of that. OH Predictive Insights became Noble Predictive Insights.
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@TrumpWarRoom
·
Follow
Pathetic scenes from Kamala’s rally in Michigan where a TINY crowd of bussed in supporters awaits.
2.1KReply
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Because unions have supported tariffs since before the New Deal. Fine. The same unions will make things here that will make prices much higher. Don’t complain then.
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seems the Mets want to allow the Dodgers to celebrate the National League trophy at home in LA
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DW, this has been a weird series with alternating blowouts. At least LA got theirs in first, so they *should* be able to wrap it up once they get home.
I was very happy to see CLE bounce back in their final out last night. They’ll need some serious 2004 Red Sox magic to come back all the way, but at least they didn’t get swept.
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If I said Trump was the greatest person since Jesus and predicted Trump would win 538 EV, Jan would like me
Not worth it.
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“If I said Trump was the greatest person since Jesus and predicted Trump would win 538 EV, Jan would like me”
Nah.
But if you say he will win the popular vote by 20, you have a chance.
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I am flattered DW didn’t include IncaPolls in the non-reliable list.
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20 or 20,000,000 or 20%? There is a limit to my desire to be liked.
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Bitter, sorry to break your thought bubble, but I do like you most of the time…just not all the time.
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“It seems every POTUS election year, there are a collection of “The Bullfinch Group” pollsters who show up, like FocalData, HighGround, and others who, try to make a splash, and then are never heard from again.”
*******************************
DW,
I should have added in my elections prediction that it was a result of data from “Research and Marketing and Strategies” (RMS), the polling firm that I created in Lexington KY in my DREAM not too long ago.
RMS has NEVER been wrong.
Gold Standard of the polling industry!
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The gift that keeps on giving. What a terrible human being.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/18/nolte-heartless-millionaire-tim-walz-says-mom-counts-on-social-security-feed-herself/
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wtf?
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New thread at 9:00.
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Title for a future thread. Gfy part 3.
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“Research and Marketing and Strategies” (RMS),
Oops. got the name wrong.’
Research and Marketing Strategies.
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