MRG, 10/7 – 10/11 600 LV:
 | MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 44 |
| Harris | 44.9 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Rogers | 41.2 |
| Slotkin | 46.1 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
MRG, 10/7 – 10/11 600 LV:
| MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 44 |
| Harris | 44.9 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Rogers | 41.2 |
| Slotkin | 46.1 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
43 responses to “More Michigan Polling”
1st
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Slotkin, ugh
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for those keeping score at home, the final MRG poll of Michigan was Trump 41, Biden 46, off a couple of points in favor of Biden.
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also, looking over this MRG poll, they seem to have found a chunk of RFK voters which of course depress Trump’s numbers.
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The Atlantic: “ To Save Democracy Harris May Need To Steal An Election”
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Trump at the Chicago economic forum event. While he received a warm welcome, he is tangling with the man administrating questions, and seems to be all over the place in his responses. IMO, a poor performance, so far, by Trump.
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The Reality: “ To END Democracy Harris May Need To Steal An Election”
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So the far left has expressed support for killing Trump and stealing the election, and they think WE are the problem.
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Polymarket has trump up by 16.
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https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/10/15/nolte-nyt-expert-who-cleared-kamala-plagiarism-admits-he-didnt-do-full-analysis/
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One of the Vindmans claims she is fleeing the country.
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Harris didn’t even commit patchwork plagiarism, where the thief simply pulls phrases and clauses, rearranges them and tries to hid the theft. TRUE plagiarism experts can spot this too.
Her’s was copy/paste, and change a word. That is FULL BLOWN plagiarism, and it is inexcusable, and if we lived in a normal country, it would END her candidacy.
If Trump had done this, it would be wall-to-wall coverage in the news.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update
🔵 Harris: 50.1% [-4.8]
🔴 Trump: 49.7% [+4.8]
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0.2% a tie? Someone else??
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“Overall, 52% of voters said they’re planning to cast their ballots early this year, with 44% planning to vote in person on Election Day. That’s roughly in line with NBC News poll results from a similar point in the 2022 midterm elections, when 49% of voters said they planned to vote early and 47% planned to vote on Election Day.
The partisan divide between those voting early and on Election Day remains stark, after years of former President Donald Trump and his Republican allies attacking the legitimacy of early voting
Vice President Kamala Harris has a 17-point lead among those who plan to vote before Election Day or have already voted (57% to 40%), with a massive lead over those planning to vote by mail and a narrow edge over early in-person voters.
Trump leads among those planning to vote on Election Day by a 21-point margin, 58% to 37%.”
This math doesn’t work out for Trump if he loses 52% by 17% and only wins 44% by 21%.
But it matters where these votes happen and of course these are national numbers, the swing states might be better for Trump.
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One of the Vindmans claims she is fleeing the country.”
Is there a GoFundMe?
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forget that, I say we chip in and buy the whole damn family a one way ticket
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Sure, book them on DEI Airlines.
Where pilots who don’t attend flight school are not discriminated against.
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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Senate polling for
@NRSC
(R) Montana Sheehy: 50% Tester (inc): 42% —— Ohio Moreno: 45% Brown (inc): 43% —— Wisconsin Hovde: 48% Baldwin (inc): 47% Full ballot – Tie 46-46% —— AZ Senate Gallego: 49% Lake: 45% AZ President Trump: 49% Harris: 47% —— Pennsylvania (full ballot) Casey (inc): 44% McCormick: 43% — Nevada Rosen (inc): 48% Brown: 43% — Michigan (2-way) Slotkin: 48 Rogers: 48% Full ballot – Slotkin 49-48% ——
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Isnt Liz Peek, the FOX Business news regular contributor, the mother of the Vindman brood?
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Second Amendment advocates suffered a setback on Tuesday after the Supreme Court vacated a Third Circuit ruling that found Pennsylvania’s law forbidding adults under 21 from openly carrying during a state of emergency violated their Second Amendment rights”
They are old enough to drive an Abrams tank or fire a Javelin missile in Afghanistan but too young to carry a weapon in Bittersville?
Ridiculous.
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That’s absolutely absurd. But at the same time they want 16 year olds to vote…forget about 16 year olds today, remember yourself at 16…you probably would have written in Deez Nuts or Uranus Bigius for President
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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
2024 GE: Yale National poll Harris: 46.9% (+1.3) Trump: 45.6% Other: 3.4%
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Silverhack rattled?
Last update: 2:30 p.m., Tuesday, October 15. Well, we keep emphasizing that the forecast is really close. After another day of polls showing an essentially tied race in the Midwestern battlegrounds, it’s now literally 50/50. We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate. It hasn’t been a huge swing, but even a half point to a point makes a difference.
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I have heard it said that around 40,000,000 Christians will not bother to vote. I don’t know how this compares to 2020 or 2016. But here is my top ten list of why these 40 million will stay home, and some of these apply to any demographic of voters one might expect to be Republican.
10: Politics and politicians don’t follow the golden rule, they are all mean, and none of them behave like Jesus did.
9: I live in a deep blue state, so it won’t matter anyway.
8: I live in a deep red state, so my vote isn’t needed.
7: I am on a mission trip that week, and am too busy to vote early or absentee because I am focused only on advancing the kingdom of Christ.
6: I think of picking a president like I would pick a new pastor. None of the candidates qualify to be my pastor, so I cannot vote for any of them.
5: Trump was a sell-out on abortion, even though he got rid of Roe v Wade, but because he didn’t stamp out all abortion, I cannot support him.
4: Trump blew it picking Barrett for the SCOTUS, so I cannot support him.
3: There is too much money, greed, and lust for power in politics, and so I haven’t voted since voting for the simple-minded, but humble and well meaning Jimmy Carter.
2: The country is too far gone anyway, and its under God’s judgment. I cannot in good conscience try to resist God’s just judgment on America for its many sins.
1: Jesus is about to return, and I don’t want to accidently or unknowingly vote for a candidate who turns out to be the antichrist.
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So the polls have definitely swung towards Trump since Kamala posted the big “surge”, whether real or imaginary.
If he can sustain the trend for another couple weeks he should win.
Kamala’s new meme is that Trump is “not well”.
Hilarious for someone who propped up Joe Biden for years.
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I will hold off a bit longer for a new thread. In the mean time:
NEVADA poll
🔵 Harris: 45.6% (+0.8)
🔴 Trump: 44.8%
🟡 Undecided: 5.6%
🟢 Other: 4%
@trafalgar_group
| 10/10-13 | N=1,088LV
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I read that half the hunters in PA don’t vote.
I wonder what the explanation for that is.
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Too many undecided and other. CYA poll.
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its been a weird election jason.
a) one candidate nearly assassinated with two attempts.
b) one candidate defeated by a debate and forced out by party bosses
c) a replacement candidate who is dumber than the one replaced.
d) replacement candidate turned into a media created god.
e) Quinnipiac battleground state polls with results to the RIGHT of Trafalgar.
It doesn’t get much weirder than that!
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NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔴 Trump: 51% (+5)
🔵 Harris: 46%
@Rasmussen_Poll
| 10/9-14 | N=1,042LV
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If that NC poll is accurate, it would be consistent with Trump within 1% of the national PV.
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typical CBS – They cut out over 30% of the interview that didn’t fit their agenda. Americans really need to see what the Media is not letting them hear
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Looking at the battleground state polling,
In AZ, Harris has led in only 2 of the last 13 polls.
In GA, Harris has led in only 1 of the last 15 polls.
In NC, Harris has led in NONE of the last 15 polls.
In NV, Harris has led in only 3 of the last 10 polls, and all three by a single point.
In PA, Harris has led in only 3 of the last 14 polls.
In WI, Harris has led in only 3 of the last 12 polls.
In MI, Harris has led in 7 of the last 17 polls.
Now the game of which Poll is the most concerning for each camp.
In AZ, Trump +5 by NY Times/Siena is most concerning for Harris.
In AZ, Harris +2 by Wall Street Journal is most concerning for Trump.
In GA, Trump +6 by Quinnipiac is the most concerning for Harris.
In GA, Harris +1 by Wall Street Journal is most concerning for Trump.
In NC, Trump +2 by Quinnipiac is the most concerning for Harris.
In NC, a tie by NSOR/GSG is the most concerning for Trump.
In NV, Trump +5 by by Wall Street Journal is most concerning for Harris.
In NV, Harris +1 by Trafalgar is the most concerning for Trump.
In PA, Trump +2 by Redfield and Wilton is the most concerning for Harris.
In PA, Harris +3 by Quinnipiac is the most concerning for Trump.
In WI, Trump +2 by Quinnipiac is the most concerning for Harris.
In WI, Harris +1 by Wall Street Journal is the most concerning for Trump.
In MI, Trump +3 by Quinnipiac is the most concerning for Harris.
In MI, Harris +1 by SoCal Strategies is the most concerning for Trump.
Special note on Michigan. I just happened to notice that of the last 5 polls of Michigan where Harris led, the sample size was under 700. Several were much smaller, and one was registered voter sample, not likely. Conversely, the for most recent polls where Trump has led, the sample size was 800 or more.
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saw in msnbc they say that they are all far right and Republican leaning polls which is misinformation. The fed gov needs to do something about the disinformation being put out by GOP pollsters to fool people into thinking Harris is doing poorly
you can’t make this crap up
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Quinnipiac is GOP disinformation??
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the point of my exercise above is to show that by any objective reading of the battleground polling, Trump is the clear favorite.
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That is an ugly nc pole for quemala.
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And if Daugherty is correct, the early ga voting does not look good at all for Quemala.
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I believe I may have mentioned it before but Silver rejects the SoCal Strategies polls along with Activote….he won’t use them.
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Isn’t this witness tampering. I hope she is jailed.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/hldliability-liz-cheney-contacted-controversial-j6-witness
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New Thread
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Don’t care about MSNBC, Joy Reid, and others at that cable station. They are the laughing stock of cable news. The only person that is worth something over there is Steve Kornacki whom I enjoy with his analysis of big horse races….Derby, Preakness, Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup.
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