According to the Trafalgar Group 10/10-10/13, 1090 LVs
| ARIZONA | |
| Trump | 47.5 |
| Harris | 46.0 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Lake | 43.9 |
| Gallego | 47.6 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
71 responses to “Trump with edge in Arizona”
Gallups party id is now drat plus 4?
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Natehack seem worried.
“Mondays are often slow for polling, with most of the numbers released by Republican-leaning or explicitly GOP-partisan firms. And that was the case today, for instance. Rasmussen Reports has Trump leading by 3 points in Pennsylvania — and from another firm, that would be a strong number for him. But given Rasmussen’s house effect (and indeed explicit coordination with the Trump campaign), it’s in line with other polling showing the Keystone State as a tossup. Still, there’s been a slight upward trajectory for Trump in our forecast over the past week.”
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Everyone here believe Gallup when it was R +3.
Now it is D +4 let the skewing begin.
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no skewing jason, but it went from D+3, to R+5 to D+4 all within one month. So apparently the nation has a lot of voters who keep changing their beliefs over and over, or the polling is a bit wild. Keep in mind the D+4 was still in September. So who knows what it would show if they polled now in October.
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No way to spin it. D +4 is not good. Wonder why such a big shift though in a month?
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House effect = crowding. Is that hat silverfish is saying?
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It’s there September # and bs like when it was r plus 3.
party id is not supported by registrations and would not change like that.
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I see it as d plus 1 or 2.
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It’s racist to say Quemala plagarized
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/busted-harris-plagiarized-least-dozen-sections-book-crime
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I see it as d plus 1 or 2.”
There we go!
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not in a month, within the month. Gallup is saying Sept 3-15 it was GOP 50/45, and then Sept 16-28 its DEM 49/45.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
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Biden’s beitch is sabotaging
https://x.com/amuse/status/1845940606729605233?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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I am glad I will not have to refer to my oldest son as “Bird Craps in Tree” after today is over. Long live Indigenous people’s day.
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It’s the HHR way.
R +5 accurate and precise, they finally got it right. Take a picture and frame it.
D +4 complete trash by commie pollsters. Throw it in the garbage.
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it lines us with joys onset then (assuming it’s that fluid to begin with).
however from 2004 election to 2008 it went from pickem to d plus 6.
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If it’s really D+4, Trump loses. But the Harris campaign is not acting like a campaign that thinks they are winning, IMO.
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And the party id would not reflect quemalas death spiral.
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The Gallup party ID has been all over the place from month to month without any trend line. I never thought it meant anything.
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Thanks Walt.
My given name was “He who eats still beating hearts” but I use jason so people don’t feel inferior.
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no seems like a pickem or plus 1 either way for September
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6 to 1 Mets after 5 innings.
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still think it will be 1/2 on Election Day for the ds
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” I never thought it meant anything.”
Shhh…. it’s more fun watching people start jumping off the HHR bridge over it.
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Don’t know if anyone posted this.
ARIZONA GE: @trafalgar_group
🟥 Trump: 47.5% (+1.5)
🟦 Harris: 46.0%
🟪 Other: 2.9%
—
AZ Senate
🟦 Gallego: 47.6% (+3.7)
🟥 Lake: 43.9%
🟪 Other: 2.8% 279 (0.7/3.0) | 10/10-13 | 1,090 LV
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Scooter, check out the top of thread and its headline.
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she is trailing. So she is now forced to do interviews. And she keeps phuqing up. This despite getting friendlys or besties as the interviewer.
Her veep is not helping; demented hates her; and her surrogates are not helping.
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Demented just told the mullahs that if they attack trump we will destroy their sheothole.
Trump had called demented out for not saying that.
Demented again stepped all over quemala.
She is now begging for the liberal Murdochs and war party supporters to enable her
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Evidently Gallup shows D 49 R 45.
The real problem I see with that is that there are obviously a lot more than 4% Indies.
So it must reflect leaners. And leaners probably don’t feel that strongly either way and it might not be a good indicator of how they will vote. In fact, probably where a lot of your ballot splitting comes from.
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DW
October 14, 2024 at 5:59 pm
Scooter, check out the top of thread and its headline.”
Scooter is deaf, so it obviously didn’t see it.
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“it”
Well, I guess it is ok to describe an A-hole.
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Gallup numbers showing the average through today:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
2m NEW NATIONAL Gallup party identification
🔴 Today: R+1
🔵 Pre-election 2020: D+4
🔵 Pre-election 2016: D+3
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Ok that makes sense dw. Thanks. Most poles are stil doing drst 2 to 4
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I don’t really care about Gallup any more. And I wish that others here do the same. At one time Gallup used to be the ‘gold standard’ in polling. Not anymore. They gave it up about a decade ago. Gallup is slowing going the way of the Sears, Roebuck and Company. They are a dinosaur in American politics.
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“must include leaners”
I thought learners only counted when playing horseshoes.
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Hey even the McCain’s are divided kind of.
The son and McCain’s spouse are supporting quemala. I believe she is an ambassador.
Mayhem is not voting because quemala lied about her dad. So, she says she may spill the beans on her.
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jason,
After I skinned the buffalo, I have a whole lot of meat. I could not find any buffalo wings. What should I do with all this meat? How is best to cook it?
Maybe I should just donate it to a vegetarian society dinner.
Or at least give it to the Haitians who have been eating other peoples’ pets.
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l
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Trump just said that he just got some good numbers out of Virginia
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More on Gallup party Id
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Hard to tell whether these are actions of Ukraine or Russia. The government brutality and civilian resistance seems the same.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/13/young-ukrainians-nightclubs-by-army-recruiters-russian-war/
“’Get away from me!’ one concertgoer shouted at three policemen as they pulled him towards a recruiting desk that had been set up on Friday outside the Palace of Sports in Kyiv, where Okean Elzy, a Ukrainian rock band, had been playing.
The man’s face contorted in fear as he strained against the policemen, video footage showed. Several women filmed the policemen on their smartphones, shouting: ‘Shame! Shame on you!’”
Police check all the men’s documents. Those who don’t show documents exempting them from military service are dragged away.”
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Sorry, I am confused. Is the national ID R+1 or D+4?
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janzam with the Putin talking points.
I am surprised she can read Gateway Pundit with her head so far up Putin’s ass.
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r+1 for September
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After I skinned the buffalo, I have a whole lot of meat. I could not find any buffalo wings. What should I do with all this meat? How is best to cook it?”
Cooking is for sissies.
Make buffalo tartar.
Delicious.
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“Yes, yes, yes. I- I- you know, there’s this whole – I talked with somebody once who said, ‘You know, if you just look at where the- the- the stars are in the sky. Don’t look at them as just random things, look at them as points. Look at the constellation, what does it show you,’” Harris replied.
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It’s only some complexes.
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Thanks, Tina!
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Could be a gamechanger.
Kamala out with new book!
‘THE ART OF THE DEAL”
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Are they seriously considering this? What about all the people who have already voted?
Todd Starnes: Is this the October surprise? If Kamala Harris were to drop out of the presidential race, “the Democratic National Committee is empowered to fill a vacancy on the national ticket after the party chair consults with Democratic governors and congressional leadership,” per CNN.
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that can’t be real. Is it?
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and who would they pick 21 days before an election? Michelle Obama?
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what. I show up after a long day and everyone leaves. I feel slighted like Vientos after the lindor intentional walk
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I am here in spirit.
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Rumor is it will be Hill and Bill.
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Unless Kamala is in a leaked video at a Diddy party doing unmentionables, I don’t expect her to drop out. And they would claim it is AI generated in any case.
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AI or the Russians.
Plus, you are racist for questioning quemala.
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yeah. Let’s be real. Even the Dems can’t pull off a replacement 21 days before an election. I mean we already had the primary and the voters decided. Right?
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That’s why I don’t early vote.
Heck, Vance could drop out and be replaced by someone who doesn’t believe in Ron Paul’s foreign policy.
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Jason. No one hates Ron Paul more than I do. The damage he’s done to the party and therefore the country can’t be quantified.
I was as vehemently anti-Vance as anyone here, maybe more so. He has worked and earned my backing as VP. He’s done a good job. Is articulate, has shown a penchant to listen to others and be flexible and amenable to change. I think he will change his isolationist views and earned my vote. I wish you would change your mind and cast your vote for Trump. Pa is too important to stand on the sidelines.
yiu will do as you see fit, but I wanted to share my thoughts and reasoning for supporting the ticket despite some reservations on foreign policy
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I think he will change his isolationist views”
You hope he will change his isolationist views.
I fixed it for you.
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I Google “Kamala plagiarism”
Mostly “right wing activist seizes”.
“Conservative activist accuses”
It all about who made the allegations and very little on the allegation itself.
The MSM has no shame.
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You got to be very careful with mushrooms. Some look identical to the edible ones.
“Eleven members of an Amish family – including a 1-year-old – were hospitalized in Pennsylvania Friday night after ingesting wild, “toxic mushrooms,” local authorities said.
A member of the family in southeastern Pennsylvania’s Peach Bottom Township told authorities they became sick after eating wild mushrooms that one of them “found in the woods … and brought home for dinner,” said Gregory Fantom, spokesperson for the Delta-Cardiff Volunteer Fire Company.
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This township is in York Co., about 18 miles south of here. A lot of Amish.
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mennonites know which mushrooms to eat
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You can lose your liver with some of them.
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despite some reservations on foreign policy”
I can live with reservations. I have lot of reservations about Trump on foreign policy and would still vote for him.
But “I don’t care what happens in Ukraine” goes beyond “reservations”.
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I think my monthly social security cost of living increase next year will be about $44.70.
Big whoop.
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Walt, I calculated that you are getting roughly the average SS benefit. There are about 67 million people receiving SS benefits. Thus the COLA will cost about $36 billion in 2025. The total SS outlay in 2025 will be roughly $1.4 Trillion. I didn’t know any of this until I ran the numbers. This is not a judgement of you or anyone receiving benefits.
Currently the SS taxes paid into the system are not covering the outlay. I don’t know what is going to happen with SS into the future, but I assume it will run in deficit like the rest of the Federal Government until the whole house of cards comes tumbling down.
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And all of the fault of Putin.
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