@Fabrizio_Lee (R) & GBAO (D) for Wall Street Journal
2-WAY
Michigan – 🔵 Harris 49-47%
Arizona – 🔵 Harris 48-46%
Georgia – 🔵 Harris 48-46%
Wisconsin – 🟡 Tie 48-48%
North Carolina – 🟡 Tie 47-47%
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 49-43%
——
FULL FIELD
Arizona – 🔵 Harris 47-45%
Michigan – 🔵 Harris 47-45%
Georgia – 🔵 Harris 46-45%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 46-45%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 46-45%
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 46-45%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 47-42%
——
Sept. 28 – October 6 | 3600 RV
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
63 responses to “Mixed bad in new Wall Street Journal polls”
First….. take that suckers !!!!!
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Kinda difficult to believe that Trump would win Nevada by 5 and at the same time lose Arizona by 2.
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I think that each state is unique so I don’t subscribe to the “If X wins Virginia, they will win Michigan” theory.
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meant to type mixed bag, but it is mixed bad as well.
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So just when we get a couple days of reports that Trump is pulling away.
General election poll
🔵 Harris 50% (+3)
🔴 Trump 47%
Last poll – 🟡Tie
RMG #C – (@NapolitanNews ) – 2945 LV – 10/10
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Those polls suck except for NV and PA.
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Scooter, saw that RMG poll, yeah disappointing given how bad of a week Obamala had. The RMG poll has bounced up and down a lot. Hopefully will improve a week from today.
The good news with the national polls is the worst of them now show Harris +3, not Harris +5 or +6. Trump can still narrowly win a Harris +3 national race
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Rcp flip Nv red.
ev for trump @ 302
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I think that each state is unique so I don’t subscribe to the “If X wins Virginia, they will win Michigan” theory.”
Nah. These things tend to move in tandem. Trump won the 3 ncompetitive blue wall states in 2016, “lost” all 3 in 2020.
If Trumps wins NV, he will win AZ too. Bet on it.
And yeah, if he wins VA he will win MI.
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rump can still narrowly win a Harris +3 national race”
If you believe Silverhack only a 15% chance.
But over 80% at +2.
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Interesting market
https://polymarket.com/event/favorite-to-win-on-polymarket-day-before-election?tid=1728653209714
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Comment on the “close election thread”
“The only place this race might be close is inside the voting machines, where millions of phantom voters live.”
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Swing States poll by @OnMessageInc
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 47-44%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 47-45%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 47-45%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
Pennsylvania – 🟡 Tie 46-46%
Michigan – 🔵 Harris 48-46% 238 (1.1/3.0) | 9/24-10/2 | 3,000 LV
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BATTLEGROUND STATES poll
🔴 Georgia: Trump+3
🔴 Arizona: Trump+2
🔴 Nevada: Trump+2
🔴 Wisconsin: Trump+1
🟡 Pennsylvania: Tie
🔵 Michigan: Harris+2
OnMessage | Sept. 24-Oct. 2 | N=3,000LV
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DW: 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
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Closest race in history? Zzzzzzz
Jefferson v Adams in 1796
Tilden-Hayes in 1876
Nixon-Kennedy in 1960
All close and exciting
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Will off message polling be next? They are all coming out of the wood work now.
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The bottom is coming out of her campaign.
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Too late nbc. Quemala was knee capped
New: A source familiar with the dynamic says Biden didn’t know Ron DeSantis refused to take Kamala Harris’ call when he praised him as ‘gracious’ https://nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-ron-desantis-kamala-harris-call-rcna174792
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why on earth is Kamala making a phone call to a Gov who is actively trying to ready his state for a major natural disaster. This should be a complete non issue and should never have even happened, much less publicizing it instead of doing something for the victims. What has Kamala done to raise money for victims in NC, GA or FL
not a damn thing
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Vic, all true and demented said:
”Mr president trump please help the victims.”
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MINNESOTA poll
🔵 Harris: 53% (+6)
🔴 Trump: 47%
ActiVote | Sept. 10-Oct. 9 | N=400LV
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MINNESOTA poll
Harris: 53% (+6) Trump: 47%”
If that happens Trump will win MI and WI.
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Question. Why did the WSJ used RVs instead of LVs at this late stage? Just looked at the states listed on RCP inventory and they are the only polling in the last two dozen or so polls that used RVs and not LVs…
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Trump should have won MN in 2016. He lost by 40k votes but Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin had a combined astounding 160k votes.
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Best point DeSantis made was that there have been hurricanes all through the Biden term and Kamala never lifted a finger for any of them.
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Yeah seems late in the game for RVs.
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RCP added a Morning Consult +5 to their average but it is still below +2 now.
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Good catch on the wsj poles. If of registered voters those poles are garbage.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/kamala-harris-accused-using-teleprompter-during-supposedly-unscripted-town-hall-event
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Today is National Coming Out Day.
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And? Do you have something to tell us?
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“Today is National Coming Out Day”
Bitter, we need to convene an emergency A-hole meeting. Is Jason trying to tell us something that the A-hole club might not have been aware of? I mean, to each their own, but this kind of revelation about a fellow A-hole member, could prove to be quite painful to some A-holes !!!!
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National coming out day?
Vis-a-vis the A-Holes, does that mean we’re distended?
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certainly would bring a new meaning to the A-hole club
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WTF?
ABC: What do you say to voters who blame Kamala for the sky-high prices of the past four years?
WALZ: “Going to the grocery store, you see false information.”
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I guess maybe the prices are actually lower than posted?
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Bitterlaw
October 11, 2024 at 11:31 am
And? Do you have something to tell us?”
I don’t answer probing questions.
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Don’t worry, Jason; we have reached the limits of what rectal probing can teach us.
The Simpsons – We’ve Reached The Limits of What Rectal Probing Can Teach Us (youtube.com)
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I follow this guy on X. He closely follows, and posts mail ballot Request/returns, and early voting data. He has been very Bullish for Trump as far as what he is currently seeing. I’ll post some of his comments from time to time, but I know nothing about this guy, so just throwing that out there. It seems pretty early to be making these types of claims. But he’s seeing similar trends in VA, NC, & PA.
Latinx Adjacent Doctor on X
After 2 days of IPEV in Ohio, Franklin county only has 7900 voters lmfao. Oh brother Brown is cooked.
Cuyahoga has only 4200 HAHAHAHAH cooked freakin COOKED.
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Which way will Tarrant County, a pivotal election battleground, swing in 2024? (msn.com)
One side effect of Cruz or Trump losing the largest Red County in the country, is that a bunch of good judges could lose their benches to Ds who will be different.
When that happened to Dallas in 2006, enforcement of criminal laws became laxer.
Tarrant County has flipped back and forth at the top of the ticket in several races while still electing Republicans county-wide.
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Not sure if this is true, but I’m not sure this is a good idea . You know abortion will be front and center. Not a great time to put abortion front and center, in my opinion.
JUST IN: Donald Trump has agreed to a Fox News town hall on Oct. 16 in Georgia – with an audience entirely comprised of women where the focus will be “issues impacting women ahead of the election.”
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The early vote continues to be good in Virginia for Trump. I had expected the five dem-leaning congressional districts to have caught up now in ballots cast compared to the four GOP leaning districts. But instead, the four GOP leaning districts have increased the lead in the last two days up to 22,896. Of course there are two tossup districts, and we have no idea how people are voting. But still lagging way behind in returned ballots is congressional district 3, a DEM stronghold including Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Portsmouth.
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I’ll be honest. I don’t know why the Trump team would do this. This seems like a risk to me. Faulkner is the moderator.
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BREAKING (WaPo) — Trump requests military aircraft and vehicles during the final weeks of the campaign “amid Iran threat”
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Baris just said on his show that his poll had Trump +2 in NEVADA
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The sexuality of A-holes with consenting adult humans has not and never will be an issue. As for llamas, the issue is under investigation.
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Is there anything legitimate about Kamala Harris?
Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
NEW: The NC National Guard allegedly loaded an entire C17 with supplies just so Kamala Harris could stage a photo-op for Hurricane Helene without the intention of the supplies being used. The accusation came from Aerial Recovery members Jonathan Howard and Charlie Keebaugh @ShawnRyan762‘s show.
“I had a squadron commander from North Carolina reach out to me… They had to a C17, full of supplies just to take a photo op for Kamala… and they never sent the bird.” “They did a photo op and with the intention of never sending [aid]… it was just a photo op.” Aerial Recovery is a nonprofit organization focused on disaster response and humanitarian aid which has been active in North Carolina after Hurricane Helene.
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Bitter, my chair in the A-hole clubhouse is currently positioned directly in front of Jason’s. Do I have to seek A-hole approval to move a few rows over?
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Faulkner is a woman of faith and is very prolife. IF he is going to do a townhall with women, then she is the ideal moderator. IF.
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If one believes that the only women’s issue is termination of pregnancy, then yes, such a forum could be a problem. But if one allows that having men in girl’s locker rooms and beating the tar out of them in sports, or girls and women assaulted at the border or being trafficked and also forced to be drug mules count as concerns for women, or nutty teachers forcing trans ideology on their kids in schools, or even state governments allowing young girls to be taken away from their families under the guise of protecting them whilst allowing them to pursue gender transition surgeries, then perhaps it’s not such a bad idea after all.
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Not really worried about Faulkner as the moderator, more worried about Trump saying something stupid when the abortion issue comes up. If Trump can stay on message, it could pay some dividends. But there are definitely risks involved.
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also I believe a paramount issue to women is inflation. The price of groceries. Hiw to feed and cloth their family.The rising cost of childcare. The rising cost of private schools. School choice.
but yeah. The media tells us nothing is more important to a woman than terminating a pregnancy because it’s inconvenient.
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Baris said his poll will show a Trump lead in MICHIGAN. Not 4 points, but a clear lead. If this holds, the Top 3 2020 Michigan pollsters will show a Trump lead there (Atlas Intel, Insider Advantage, and Big Data Poll (Baris).
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PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 46%
Redfield & Wilton | Oct. 8-9 | N=794LV
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GEORGIA poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
Redfield & Wilton | Oct. 8-9 | N=732LV
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I agree with oahodges about Faulkner being ok as a moderator for a woman’s forum. In fact she was the only decent black woman on the panel of black journalists who grilled Trump earlier in the year. Also, unless the townhall preselected an audience of pro abortion women, economic/safety/school issues far outweigh those involving abortion.
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