So all you get is this ActiVote poll of Arizona
 | ARIZONA |
| Trump | 50.7 |
| Harris | 49.3 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
So all you get is this ActiVote poll of Arizona
| ARIZONA |
| Trump | 50.7 |
| Harris | 49.3 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
69 responses to “Waiting for real polling”
You gov, national, Quemala plus 4.
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New Accent.
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Someone said this was a D+9 poll
NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 49% (+4)
🔴 Trump: 45%
YouGov & Economist | Oct. 6-7 | N=1,230LV
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Lol, drat pls 9? Yes, it’s obumbler on roids.
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The Hamas crowd in Michigan should
love this.
JUST IN: Biden admin drops support for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon, backing Israeli incursions to degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure — State Department
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1h
Um, first of all, ew. Second of all, she’s 60.
Quote
Natalie Winters
@nataliegwinters
·
Oct 8
MSNBC claims Trump is “frightened” of running against a “young, attractive black woman.”
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Is that quote from the Morning Transgenders?
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538 has abandoned the 60-40 narrative…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
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Looks like Milton will be a 3 when it makes landfall.
Still dangerous but the difference in damage between a 5 and a 3 is very significant.
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/new-north-carolina-mayor-reveals-kamala-harris-major-lie-on-fema-assistance-mstef/
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Nineveh News:
Washington–Vice President Kamala Harris has issued an executive order that could be a game changer for her chances of flipping the key state of Florida in the election next month. Harris has directed the U.S. Navy to blow up Hurricane Milton before it makes landfall, sparing the state loss of life and property in the sunshine state. Harris warned that the destruction of the hurricane with Navy missiles can only go forward if there is sure to be equity in the results for the LGBTQ community.
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Gird your loins:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
6m
🚨 Quinnipiac polls of MI, PA and WI today.
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She still can’t answer the question…on Colbert last night
HARRIS: Sure, well, I’m obviously not Joe Biden, and so, that would be one thing,
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I am surprised she didn’t say, well, I don’t have a penis.
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I believe that early voting begins in about 10 days or so in Nevada….and, of course, the Democrat voting guru there-John Ralston-will keep us up to date on the totals as they come in.
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Remember that in late September Quinnipiac had…
Trump +6 in GEORGIA
Trump +2 in NORTH CAROLINA
But back in Mid-September, Quinnipiac had…
Harris +5 in MICHIGAN
Harris +5 in PENNSYLVANIA
Harris +1 in WISCONSIN
My own prediction is that they will show
MI: Harris 50, Trump 47
PA: Harris 49, Trump 48
WI: Harris 49, Trump 49
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Virginia early voting update.
The five Dem leaning congressional districts gained another 2,000 + votes cast against the four GOP leaning districts, 22620, to 20526. Of course its impossible to know the lean in the two swing districts, 2 and 7. But the fact that early voting has been going on this long, with 12% of the 2020 electorate having voted, and the 4 GOP leaning districts have returned 20,000+ more ballots than the 5 DEM leaning districts is remarkable. Dem strongholds of Portsmouth, Norfolk, Hampton, and Newport News lag way behind.
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DW, the Dems are saying they aren’t worried, because their voters are going to swamp the polls on Election Day. I guess we’ll see if they are right.
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I know that Walt posted this earlier, but just posting again:
U.S. Hospitals Raked in $120 Million Performing Sex Changes on Kids
This is our modern day travesty. This sort of child abuse resulted in war crimes tribunals hanging Germans after WWII. Tricking a little boy into thinking he can be made into a girl so they can lop his package off, creating a lifetime of medical problems, psychological problems, and on a path to suicide.
NO BOY knows what it feels like to function as a man, and anyone who participates in this abuse is flat out EVIL.
The only reason I can think of that they do this is that they are so committed to abortion that sterilization is the next best thing in their warped and sick way of thinking.
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“Dems are saying they aren’t worried, because their voters are going to swamp the polls on Election Day.”
When you look at hard numbers that are against you, and you find yourself having to explain and appeal to something you hope happens, its not a show of strength.
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I agree…. I would love to know what Trump’s internal polls are saying.
Guy Benson: If Trump barely loses in key states, the rallies in NY/CA/CO will look like head-scratchers. If he wins, and some key Congressional races in these blue states go red (maybe with an eye toward the overall popular vote too), they’ll look brilliant. Time and resources are finite.
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According to the “Trump Events” website he will be addressing the crowd at the Gaylord Rockies Resort and Convention Center which has a capacity of 10,000 and it is listed as SOLD OUT.
Wow.
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One legitimate question is how much can you really move the needle, at either the POTUS level or the congressional level by hosting repeated events in the same state, over and over? Those events will get less and less press coverage and probably don’t do much to move any needles. But go somewhere where there has been no rally and none expected, and suddenly, it’s NEWS. And that’s the key, make NEWS and get it covered in the NEWS.
The Madison Square Garden rally is brilliant. It will make news. Will it flip NY? Of course not. But it will make news, and nationally, that will help.
So even in the worst case scenario, Trump loses, having spent time in rallies in NY, CO, and CA, I am not sure that additional rallies in PA, MI and WI would have made any difference.
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I’m expecting Quinnipiac to have Harris at least +2 in all those States. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if I’m wrong.
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Be interesting to see if either Candidate accepts.
BREAKING REPORT: Fox News proposes a debate between Trump and Harris on October 24 or October 27th in Pennsylvania..
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Those rallies literally take one day out of his campaigning schedule, and I believe, like others, they are to help down race candidates.
BUT…they also generate national buzz, which almost act like a national campaign ad because a. they get people talking…so win right there, and b. they get people wondering…does he know something I don’t about the race. Again, a win.
So, taking one day of not being in a swing state, when he has been camped there for the past 45 days and more, I don’t believe would be the reason for his defeat, should he lose.
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Trump is threading the needle with the resources he has to reach as many people as possible – rallies, interviews, news conferences, podcasts, anywhere and everywhere. Unlike Harris and the Dems, who are awash in cash, he is running a rather unconventional campaign, heavily depending on grassroots and limited cash.
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No way in hell should Trump debate her that late in the campaign. He has absolutely nothing to win. Plus, no Dem would ever accept a debate on Fox. If she does, then you know she’s desperate
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Looking deeper into 538 shows some very interesting details.
In their state by state graph they actually have PA, NV and WI as 50/50…yet have them in blue on the Dem side of the curvy line. (They actually have Komrade getting 48% in FL LMAO). PA by itself, with NC and GA which they are projecting for Trump, gets him the Presidency, yet, top line, they are still at 53%-47% Komrade Kamala.
Next, they project NO SCENARIO where Trump wins the popular vote. Period. Not one of their simulations or projections
Last. If you look at the projection of potential EC victories (represented by dots), you will see that Trump has many many more that are between 279-290 than Komrade.
Interesting.
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Nope he has said no to the debates. She is being starved of oxygen. She had to go on shows like the view less and cringebert. She is damaging herself further in these “friendly interviews.”
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100% agree with Vic that Trump has nothing to gain by having another debate with Harris.
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Trump and Harris tied at 52c at predictIT
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And, of course, the Democrat voting guru there-John Ralston-will keep us up to date on the totals as they come in.”
ZZZZ… Ralston is an unprincipled hack who always predicts Dems will win, and if they don’t win, they should have won.
His “analysis” is junk.
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Guy Benson: If Trump barely loses in key states, the rallies in NY/CA/CO will look like head-scratchers”
Only if you believe if those 2 rallies held elsewhere would change the course of the election, which is doubtful.
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I still don’t know why she picked a fight with rds in the first place. She was never involved (probably for the best) in hurricane relief/disaster relief.
And then demented knee capped her yesterday.
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This would be bad for Trump if true. But polling “Haley voters” would be difficult.
Poll Tracker
@PollTracker2024Blueprint poll of Nikki Haley primary voters Trump 45% Harris 36% Unsure 23% Others 6% (9/28-10/6 RV)
If true, and if Haley got 30% of the R primary vote, it would mean Trump is bleeding 10% of R votes to Harris.
But there are caveats:
Not all Haley voters were Rs.
It depends where these voters are.
No polls really show that happening.
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Et tu, New York?
https://thepostmillennial.com/100-foot-vote-for-trump-sign-lit-up-in-amsterdam-ny-after-court-rules-against-city-for-trying-to-block-it
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Trump Senior Adviser
@JasonMillerinDC: “The reason why you see Kamala Harris’s campaign going on this media blitz, is clearly they’re seeing something in their polling — which is probably what we’re seeing in our polling — that Kamala Harris is starting to drop off.”
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how many Haley voters did they poll? I bet the Unsure all pull the lever for Trump. Harris is, on a daily basis, proving herself to be unfit
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…”Ralston is an unprincipled hack….” We already know this. Just like Silver, some of the polls, MSNBC pundits and even some here.
It’s called having a ‘filter’ and the ability to sift out the nonsense.
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It’s called having a ‘filter’ and the ability to sift out the nonsense.”
If you filter garbage you still get garbage
You have to remember that first and foremost Ralston is a partisan hack with an agenda to suppress the R vote by always making appear the election is a done deal, don’t even bother voting.
Second, the way he manipulates the data is always favorable to the Dems and even when the data is negative for his purposes he will qualify it as either irrelevant or claim the “future vote” will be favorable to the Dems.
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”Ralston is an unprincipled hack….” We already know this. Just like Silver, some of the polls, MSNBC pundits and even some here.”
Unprincipled Hacks at HHR ???? That perked up my implant !!!
C’mon John, you have to do better than that. We want names .
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Ralston tried to “save” Sisolak up to the very last minute, finally had to eat crow.
But he might have have been successful in suppressing 10k votes in the Senate race to save Cortez Masto
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This would be a nice October surprise, except I would assume nothing significant will come out before the election.
BREAKING: An investigation into the online fundraising platform ActBlue has now expanded to 19 states, as attorneys general across the country examine whether Democrats are using the platform to cheat on election donations.
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The analogy of Ralston to Nate Silverhack is accurate.
Silver is famous for manipulating polls to get his desired result.
Ralston is famous for manipulating early voting and VBM data to get his desired result.
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$$$ only for grifters.
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Wasn’t UMBC the university whose team beat the University of Virginia in the first ever NCAA Men’s basketball tournament upset of a 16 seed?
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Sorry, no names. If some of you feel guilty I’l leave it at that. I use the word filter and sift. Another synonym would be to ‘cherry pick’. Most of us do that. You don’t have to quote Silver or Ralston or Halperin but I and others do so we sift out some of the stuff we don’t agree with.
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True the Vote
@TrueTheVote
BREAKING! Catherine and Gregg continue deploying CBRS radios on the ground in NC to extend @Starlink signals from @elonmusk!
She also says they are meeting with leadership in the coming days to ensure every voter in the impacted areas have an opportunity to vote.
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The Trump Family is taking care of 275 lineman as they get ready to respond to the aftermath of Hurricane Milton
https://x.com/tonyxtwo/status/1844050160751616199?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Actually I do quote Silver and Ralston sometimes, but most of the time to mock them.
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Another synonym would be to ‘cherry pick’.”
The cherry picking and skewing of polls is HHR’s most cherished institution.
It is what has made us what we are.
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Silverhack hasn’t updated his site today, probably hoping for some “good” Quinn polls.
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“The Trump Family is taking care of 275 lineman as they get ready to respond to the aftermath of Hurricane Milton”
3-2-1 until: MSNBC: “This is criminal! Trump trying to BUY votes. This will cause a backlash”
Yeah, a backlash among millennials who had their student loan debt forgiven, which was NOT trying to buy their votes.
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Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD
@TonerousHyus
I am going through WI VBM right now and there’s clear trend of R counties being way up from 2022 requests vs Dem counties but particularly only lean Dem counties that Biden barely won.
🟥 Adams +12%
🟦Ashland -12%
🟥 Barron +6%
🟦 Bayfield -7%
On and on. Will post later
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
8m
BREAKING: Trump leads Harris by 7 points across the battleground states among low and mid-propensity voters, 52%-45%, a new Cook Political poll finds.
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JUST IN: A University of Kansas instructor who said that men who refuse to vote for Kamala should be lined up and shot — has been placed on administrative leave. KU tells us they are investigating. They say the instructor “offers his sincerest apologies.”
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Guess how many times the betting markets have been wrong about picking the winner of the Presidential election since 1866??
Twice.
I imagine it was Dewey and Hillary but not sure.
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The Harris campaign, and media in general, have hyped Doug Emhoff in glowing, pro-feminist terms. In actuality he’s a jerk, impregnating a nanny, hitting an ex-girlfriend, giving her hush money not to say anything, and being a predator at his law office intimidating women. However, most of the press is overlooking this behavior, as they have done with doing make-overs on Kamala’s incompetence.
From The Daily Mail:
“Kamala Harris‘s husband was ‘inappropriate’ and ‘misogynistic’ at work, his former colleagues tell DailyMail.com.
Attorneys who worked with Doug Emhoff at his former firm Venable say he yelled expletives, held a men-only cocktail hour in the office, revoked work perks from women who didn’t flirt with him, and took only young, attractive associates in a limousine to a ball.
A 2019 lawsuit also claimed sex discrimination by other partners in the LA office Emhoff ran, and that while engaged to Harris, he hired an ‘unqualified’ part-time model as a legal secretary ‘because she was young, attractive and friendly with the powerful men in the office’.”
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Most of these allegations, except hitting his girlfriend, seem weak and inconsequential to me.
Held a man only cocktail hour…..zzzz
Only took good looking women in the limo?….zzzz
Hired a looker for a secretary? ……zzzz
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Kamala Harris is currently getting briefed on Hurricane Milton and got caught in 4k telling her handlers “it’s a live broadcast” while being fed the questions to ask.
https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1844064081831133556?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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–They say the instructor “offers his sincerest apologies.”
oh I bet he does. He’s sorry it leaked out and he got caught and suspended.
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I think it is time for me to admit my secret. My wife is beautiful and intelligent and far better than I deserve.
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quinn
Trump leads in Wisconsin by 2
Trump leads in Michigan by 3
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BOOOM
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Trump down 3 in pa (Quinn)
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NEW THREAD
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There is always a first time, but I don’t see WI and MI both voting well to the right of PA. Maybe those Radnor wine moms will come out in force to defend their uteri after all.
(Just teasing, BL!😁)
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