Quinnipiac University, one of the most left-listing pollsters in 2020, out with their much awaited rust-belt polling updates. And the result counters the conventional wisdom that Trump is strong in PA, but struggling in WI and MI. All three states were polled Oct 3-7 against 1,412 Likely Voters in PA, 1,073 in WI and 1,007 in MI:
| Trump | Harris | ||
 | PA | 46 | 49 |
 | MI | 50 | 47 |
 | WI | 48 | 46 |
U.S. Senate races
| | | McCormick | Casey |
| PA | 43 | 51 |
| Rogers | Slotkin | ||
| MI | 48 | 48 |
| Hovde | Baldwin | ||
| WI | 46 | 50 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
129 responses to “Quinnipiac polls rust belt”
1st
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There is always a first time, but I don’t see WI and MI both voting well to the right of PA. Maybe those Radnor wine moms will come out in force to defend their uteri after all.
(Just teasing, BL!😁)
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and even if you are disappointed in the Pennsylvania numbers keep in mind their prior poll was Trump 46, Harris 51. So this is an improvement.
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I’m pleasantly surprised !!! Gotta be happy with those if you are a Trump supporter. And I agree with GF. Hard to see Trump losing PA if up in both MI & WI.
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Even if the POTUS top line was the final result, I’ll take 25 EVs over 19.
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Just added the senate numbers and am a bit relieved to see they have McCormick down 8 to Casey. It means they likely pulled an outlier in PA, and the MI and WI ones are the accurate polls.
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Michigan flipped red in RCP average:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-harris
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In the head 2 head it’s trump plus 4 in Michigan.
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I may break out the limoncello early today. I figured, if Quemala can drink beer with cringebert, what the hey.
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Two takes on MI
WSJ has an article stating that the EV mandate is hurting Kamala in in MI
USA Today claims Jill Stein is hurting Kamala in MI.
Can we have both?:
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Hilarious Trump ad.. I hope they play it everywhere. Should be cheap, very short.
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1844017415593898277
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I may break out the limoncello early today.”
Momentous, normally she waits till noon….
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Liberals trying to cope over at Predictit…
“Qpac seems to have not wanted to under estimate Trump win the Rust Belt, these cross tabs are dumb, he is not winning young people.”
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RCP seems to be making a big deal out of the difference in the averages from 2020 and 2024.
On their left hand state of the race summary, they note that on this day in 2020 Biden led by 7 in PA now Trump +.2. and nationally its Harris +2, was Biden +9.7.
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Quinnipiac ran polls of WI, MI, and PA on 9/16. Look at the turnaround in just 3 months:
WI: 3 point swing to Trump
MI: 9 point swing to Trump
PA: 3 point swing to Trump
They also have MI Senate race TIED – a 5 point swing to Rogers
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We could have had Trump up in all 3 States and his model would not have shown much change. Lol
Nate Silver: Today’s update with those Quinnipiac polls added.
Good numbers for Trump in WI and MI, offset a bit by a good poll for Harris in PA.
As tight as ever but at the same time, the model isn’t yet seeing a major change.
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Following the Quinny polls, Michigan & Wisconsin have both dropped back down to only a 4 point lead for Kamala, at Polymarket.
Michigan: Harris 52%-48%
Wisconsin: Harris 52%-48%
Nebada: Harris 52%-48%
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Harrison Floyd
@hw_floyd
The Georgia State Election Board just voted 3-2 to subpoena records from Fulton County during the 2020 election.
Buckle your seat belt
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Silverhack says polls in MI and Wi are good for Trump, PA not so much.
He is not changing his 55-45 prediction.
Zzzzzz…
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Nebada”
Scooter probably couldn’t hear its spelled Nevada.
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Damm, that A-hole posted the Silverhack update before I did?
GFY.
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Insider Advantage (PA)
Trump 49
Harris 47
https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-pennsylvania-survey-trump-leads-by-two-points/
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Wonder how many of these are Union Workers ????
Trump up 14% with men in WI and 19% with men in MI. NYT showed this too.
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WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
Arc Insights | Oct. 2-6 | N=700LV
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Has anyone heard from Bitter lately? After posting the two GFY threads, he’s been one quiet A-hole.
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We now have a new Hurricane expert !!!
Kamala is now calling in to The Weather Channel to tell them how to do their jobs to save her from more headaches.
“It’s important that we not emphasize that downgrading is happening. The difference between a Cat 5 and a Cat 4 is pretty much the same.”
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Ironic that the Michigan numbers from Quinnipiac are exactly the same as AtlasIntel, the WORST and the BEST pollster in 2020.
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Scooter,
Why did you change your call sign? Why didn’t you just keep “Scooter”?
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Michigan – 🔴 Trump 48-46%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
North Carolina – 🟡 TIE 47-47%
Pennsylvania – 🟡 TIE 47-47%
Arizona – 🟡 TIE 47-47%
Nevada – 🟡 TIE 47-47%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 46-45%
——
Sept. 23-29 | N=2,828 LV | ±1.8%
https://pgpf.org/sites/default/files/PGPF-Battleground-Poll-Topline-Results-by-State.pdf
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Any recent blue state polls out of NY, NJ, Maryland, Illinois? Obviously, Trump won’t win any of them, but I’m interested in how much Trump cuts the gap in those states. If he cuts the Biden margins by even 7-10 pts in states like NY and NJ (probable IMO) it means that the ridiculous polls like NBC or ABC showing Harris up 5 and 6 points nationally are complete crap. That’s exactly what they are BTW.
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Is it too late for us all to compromise on Mitt Romney?
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I know Halperin is a Lib, but here’s a couple reasons why I think he might be telling the truth for once.
Mark Halperin: I just saw some new private polling that’s very robust. Private polling,” says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris “is in a lot of trouble … In the conversations I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish.”
Tom Bonier: “Speaking as a Democrat with data, this is dumb.”
Mark Halperin: “I’m pretty sure the pollsters doing these polls aren’t “dumb.” Where do you have all 7 battlegrounds currently and how does that compare to where you had them 2 weeks ago? I know you aren’t “dumb” so eager to hear.”
Tom Bonier: “There’s a wealth of public polling out there that consistently undermines this notion. And yes, internals CAN be more accurate (but often are not). They are also, by definition, completely lacking in transparency, and subject to the spin of the source. All of which you know.”
Mark Halperin: “I’m relying on pollsters of BOTH parties whose skill and reputations have been proven over many cycles. These are professionals in BOTH parties who I’m sure you respect. Ask, for instance, those polling for Democratic Senate candidates where their data has the presidential race. This isn’t spin, or “dumb,” or cheap media polls. I will repeat: I’m not rooting for Trump or predicting he will win. But Harris supporters who want to ignore the realities of where the race stands and what the actual trends are are, ironically, doing a lot more to facilitate a Trump victory than my factual reporting is.”
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Marv, I tried. But when I signed in a couple weeks ago, I couldn’t figure out how to do it. It wouldn’t let me. So I got stuck with that rather long, obnoxious call sign that it gave me.
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If I’m a left-leaning MI voter and I start to sense that Harris is going to lose, then why wouldn’t I vote for Stein?
Could Harris have her floor fall out if the polls start showing a consistent Trump lead?
I hope so.
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That is why the lunatic sos from Michigan wanted stein off ballot.
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GFY
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Meanwhile
The other side launches “Hombres con Kamala.”
Someone please translate this for Bl.
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“Men with Kamala”
Supposedly its a long list….
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Whoops, “Hombres con Kamala.”
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Whoops, “hombres con Harris.”
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Mark Halperin DID say something true…
will repeat: I’m not rooting for Trump or predicting he will win
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Bitter-“GFY”
I knew he’d answer the call.
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Halperin is defensive because I doubt he has any info from Rs.
Maybe he does from Dems, but they won’t be happy with him using it to pour cold water on their chances.
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rump just announced that he will be holding MASSIVE rallies in New Jersey and deep-blue cities like Atlanta, Georgia, as well as the Madison Square Garden rally. He also said that New York, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia etc are in “play” for him to win”
I guess if it gets Dems to spend any money in these states it is a win.
But while I supported him doing an Aurora rally, I think diverting time and resources to NY and NJ or even NM is not that smart.
But maybe he has info we (and Mark Halperin) don’t have.
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f I’m a left-leaning MI voter and I start to sense that Harris is going to lose, then why wouldn’t I vote for Stein?”
Not so sure. Would any of us vote for the Constitution Party candidate if we thought Trump was going to lose?
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ssq said “Men who have conned Harris”
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scooter. Did she really call into the weather channel or is that a parody
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Scranton, pa is demented country.
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outside of NJ I don’t think he said he’d do rallies in NM, VA etc and the NJ one might be to help a congressional R in a tight district
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Scooter,
Why did you change your call sign? Why didn’t you just keep “Scooter”?”
Scooter is very complex, so he chose a more complex name.
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Paul
October 9, 2024 at 3:43 pm
Is it too late for us all to compromise on Mitt Romney?”
Not at all.
Romney for Dogcatcher!
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that was a funny comment Paul. Good comment
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“But we’re doing arenas because the crowds are so big. And we’re making a play for New Jersey. We’re making a play for Virginia. We’re making a play for New York, New Mexico, Minnesota, where this lunatic [Tim Walz] comes from.”
I don’t think he is holding rallies in Va, nm, or mn. He did say renting arenas (ny, ga, and Nj, if they can get them.
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OMG.
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Romney joined a list of politicians that put their personal grievances over principles. Romney was the ONLY R to vote for the stupid phone call impeachment. So he thought all the Dems were right, all the people in his party were wrong. It takes a special kind of chutzpah to do that.
He joins the Cheneys, Fat F–k Christie, Weak Knees Pence and other Rs that rather than accept their views were no longer majority views, and either bow out gracefully or present their case to the voters, decided that it was just easier to surrender to the MSM and the Dems and sell out any conservative principles they may have had.
They have all become cheap media whores despised by their former foes and former allies both.
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Marist releasing Florida, Texas, and Ohio polls at midnight.
Boy, they are really hitting the swing States.
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Kari Lake just sent me an email asking for donations because she is out of money. And you all thought being a Deadender moron was cheap. It takes money, damn it.
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Didn’t say if they were National and Senate races.
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Ooops, they are doing both National and Senate polls.
I was wrong. Doesn’t happen very often. GFY’s !!!!
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COMING SOON after the ELECTION
The first ever official HHR Pollster grades and rankings. Unlike other sites who grade pollsters, the HHR grading system will include multiple categories:
1 Pollsters who independently polls multiple states (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Quinnipiac, etc.)
2 Traditionally single-state pollsters (Selzer, EPIC-MRA, Sooner Poll, etc.)
3 One R and one D pollster who combine efforts for a given sponsor. There are several of these now (AARP, FoxNews, Wall Street Journal, etc).
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Milton weakens to a Cat 3, winds of 90 mph when it hits tonight.
That is a big improvement from a Cat 5 with 175 mph winds.
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I think we should institute a HHR Premium (or maybe HHR Platinum) subscription for this kind of exclusive information DW will provide.
Since it is my idea, I would get 50% of the proceeds, an incentive for me to come up with other brilliant ideas, and the other 50% divided between DW (as master contributor) and Bitter (blog owner).
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HHR will remain free to users. You get what you pay for.
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Vic, it feels like the Mets stranded 7 baserunners in the first two innings, even though that’s not supposed to be possible. Game could have easily been 5-0, but instead its scoreless after two.
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Its been 9 GA polls since Kamala led in one, and its been 11 NC polls since Kamala led in one.
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Vic you are not alone on the cost of food:
Ocasio-Rodham Nolte
@NolteNC
Just bought 4 regular burgers and two large French fries at Burger King… I kid you not… $16. I can’t wait to vote.
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3,935 Views
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So I just spoke to someone who might have potentially could have had dinner with a certain older ex speaker who told that person who might, or might not have been there, that the Senate is gone, and they are putting all their eggs into winning the House. Media is full on involved in this as well. They believe they have a shot with at an extremely narrow victory, with them flipping almost all the marginal R seats in NY and CA.
That, my friends is the strategy. This potentially ex speaker, if it had happened, didn’t want to discuss the Presidential race at all…should the conversation have happened, though Im not saying it did…or didn’t
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“You get what you pay for.”
Isn’t that what we used to tell Dondero, when he would brag about all the overseas hookers he used to frequent?
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LOL –
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Vic, was that Mark Halperin you were speaking with?
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HHR will remain free to users. You get what you pay for.”
DW, I tried….
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Reading, Pa rally coming up at 7 pm est.
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I was talking to two Amish farmers today. One has a friend whose uncle is English, but I wasn’t able to get any good political information. Sorry.
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LOL – no. This actually was her. Said Senate is gone. Putting all their eggs in the House, but she won’t run for speaker
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I don’t know why Halperin gets so much hate around here; he was pretty much spot on with the cool/swap out of Biden to Harris. The only detail he missed was that Biden ended up endorsing Harris the same day, albeit about an hour after he made the first announcement.
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Dondero’s write-up on Wikipedia.
Eric Dondero, also known as Eric Dondero-Rittberg, who is active on Twitter as Liberty-Identitarian is an American far-right Islamophobic internet troll and white nationalist who runs the website Subspecieist which he describes as “right-wing paleoanthropology”. The site promotes pseudoscientific racial realism as “subspecieism”. Dondero argues that the human species is split into a small number of continental subspecies (races), and he argues against subspecies intermixing.”
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Bitter, I can not believe that they had the bases loaded twice and got ZIPPO ZERO NIL…then the Phillies score on one hit…yes they have, one hit…but the lead.
Watch the Mets blow the next two games when they should have won game two with any sort of pitching, and the Phillies will go on to beat the Padres.
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wow He was on the deep end when he was here. Seems like he took the full on plunge
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Vic, I was just kidding about Halperin. I just wanted to get Jason all worked up.
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Vic – The Phillies have struck out repeatedly on balls that rolled to them. Amazed Suarez got through 4.
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YIKES !!!!
Back to back bad nights for Trump in the Ras daily tracker. -6 last night.
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He was a dirtbag when he was here. Not surprised he went lower.
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ouch -6. Donlt know how he’s getting that. D’s are extremely worried she’s going to lose.
Bitter – who was the dirtbag.
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Trump takes the lead in Wisconsin. Trump now leads in all the Swing States on Polymarket except for Nevada.
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Vic, his daily tracker has some wild swings. Trump was just up 5 two days ago. But if Trump has another bad night tonight, Harris might take the 5 day average lead when Ras reports out his National poll tomorrow.
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Baris: looks like Harris is on the cusp of a broad collapse
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Dondero
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Daily tracking polling is prone to wild swings. I suggest anyone closely following them should relax and have a cream soda.
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This is what Mark Mitchell from Ras just posted. Not sure I understand what he’s trying to say.
There’s a little of a weighting artifact going on here.
I combined and weighted the last three samples and it came out to exactly tie.
So the fifth and whatever tonight it will determine tomorrow’s weekly number.
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No faux news debate:
realDonaldTrump
I WON THE LAST TWO DEBATES, ONE WITH CROOKED JOE, THE OTHER WITH LYIN’ KAMALA. I ACCEPTED THE FOX-NEWS INVITATION TO DEBATE KAMALA ON SEPTEMBER 4TH, BUT SHE TURNED IT DOWN. JD VANCE EASILY WON HIS DEBATE WITH TAMPON TIM WALZ, WHO CALLED HIMSELF A KNUCKLEHEAD! I AM ALSO LEADING IN THE POLLS, WITH THE LEAD GETTING BIGGER BY THE DAY – AND LEADING IN ALL SWING STATES. THE FIRST THING A PRIZEFIGHTER DOES WHEN HE LOSES A FIGHT IS SAY THAT HE “DEMANDS A REMATCH.” IT IS VERY LATE IN THE PROCESS, VOTING HAS ALREADY BEGUN – THERE WILL BE NO REMATCH! BESIDES, KAMALA STATED CLEARLY, YESTERDAY, THAT SHE WOULD NOT DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT THAN JOE BIDEN, SO THERE IS NOTHING TO DEBATE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! DONALD J. TRUMP
1.02k
ReTruths
3.06k
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So help me here. Today we learned that Trump is trending towards the blue wall. And that Ras is all over the place with there polling.
What else is new?
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Excuse me….their polling.
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If he is tinkering with a daily tracking pole, there will be wild swings in it. Not sure that he is doing that. The last 4 days are then averaged.
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Finally, did Biden really have to mention Trump with the misinformation angle. Did he really, really have to mention that? It just seems so petty and pathetic.
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One of Bitter’s friends and neighbors…
HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — A Philadelphia family court judge has been suspended without pay for the last three months of his time on the bench after the Court of Judicial Discipline determined his politically charged social media posts violated jurists’ behavioral standards.
The court on Monday imposed the punishment against Common Pleas Judge Mark B. Cohen, who before he became a judge spent more than four decades as a Democratic state representative.
The opinion and order faulted Cohen’s “actions in repeatedly posting items on the internet reflecting his political views even after being warned not to do so.”
Cohen’s lawyer, Sam Stretton, said Tuesday that he plans to appeal to the state Supreme Court. He described Cohen as a compulsive reader and very knowledgeable person, and that his blog posts about public issues were revised to end endorsements of candidates after he became a judge more than six years ago.
“I think it’s important for judges to be able to speak out in a reserved way as long as they don’t talk about cases in their courthouse, things of that nature,” Stretton said.
In an opinion issued in May, the court listed dozens of Cohen’s Facebook posts, including posts that said President Joe Biden “has proven to be an excellent president,” expressed support for Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner’s tactics in an impeachment proceeding, and issued a “plea for more domestic spending and less military spending.”
“Judge Cohen sits as a representative of all judges in Pennsylvania and has a duty to refrain from causing members of the public to question whether judges generally act on such strident beliefs as he expresses,” the court wrote in May.
Cohen is 75 years old, the age limit for judges, so Stretton said his time as a judge will end when his suspension does on Dec. 31
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He will get a nice pension, no worries.
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Halperin is a dirtbag too. I am surprised he is not in court since he admitted to all the sexual harassment accusations from a dozen women.
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Phillies are a good team. They will be heard from next year when they only get better.
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I still can’t believe this team has gone this far. I thought it was over when the Phils went up. It will be interesting to see how they handle the Padres or Dodgers. Not sure who I would rather face, but after this its all gravy. If they win, awesome, if not, it was a great run .
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Do I see forsee a 1984 World Series redux….Tigers against the Padres?
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agreed Vic, anything after this is extra.
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Great. Now I am stuck cheering for the Padres or Dodgers over the Mets.
The only team I did not want the Phillies to play in the postseason in either league was the Mets. Not because they are better (they are not) but because they were playing so well.
No need to watch the rest of the games. I will follow the comments.
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That was painful, Bitter. From my end, I couldn’t possibly root for the Padres. If it’s them, I’m pulling for Detroit or KC; if it’s them and the Yankees, then unlike 1998, I will abstain this time.
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Don’t tell Tina I was right after Game 1 when I said the series was over.
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Cenk Uygur: “Just four days later, Trump has definitively taken the lead. When asked how she would be different than Biden, Harris said she would do the same things. Terrible answer. When asked what she would do in the White House, she said she’s not Trump. Terrible answer. Big trouble ahead.”
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Is cent drinking truth serum?
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@Shem_Infinite
They really thought that they could just force the current President to drop out of the race with a media coup, crown the dumbest Vice President in history as the new nominee with zero votes, and trick the American people into making her the first female POTUS through gaslighting
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2,104 Views
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That might be one of the most direct and truthful assessment of the situation that I have seen.
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What a day. Good poll numbers. Mets win (sorry Bitter, really). Rangers begin the season by swamping Pens, Shesterkin gets a shutout to start his walk year and Pelosi said Senate is gone (my guess by a lot if things keep breaking this way)
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Supposedly Kari Lake crushed Gallego in their debate tonight. Most likely too little too late though.
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You never know, Scooter. I do think she’s on track to lose, but if Trump wins bigly, maybe he can drag her across the line.
Hung Cao decimated Kaine last week. Sadly, I don’t think it will make a difference unless Trump pulls a major surprise in the Commonwealth. To his credit, Youngkin is barnstorming damned near every county to maximize the GOP vote.
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Damn, if Trafalgar only has Trump +1.3 in GA., that is very disappointing.
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Maybe, but one could hope that Cahaly has learnt lessons from his 2020 and 2022 errors. I don’t think GA was ever going to be an easy flip, but certainly very doable.
There is a reason that the Harris campaign began targeting GA and NC once the Rust Belt became shaky.
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That debate must’ve been the first time Gallego didn’t beat a woman.
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Serpent head is concerned:
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/watch-james-carville-is-scared-to-death-about-2024-election-increasingly-doubting-kamala-harris-cmc/#google_vignette
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Wow !!!! The roof at Tropicana Field has been ripped off.
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1844213454875525578?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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the NYT reported that Kamala has raised $1B since entering the race. I assume she is spending in any state with a Dem pulse.
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2024 GE: NPR/@maristpoll
FLORIDA
🟥 Trump: 51% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 47%
FL Senate
🟥 Rick Scott (inc): 50% (+2)
🟦 D. Mucarsel-Powell: 48% 6 (2.9/3.0) | 1,257 LV | 10/2/3-7
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Marist
Florida
—Trump up 51/47
—Scott up 50/48
Ohio
—Trump up 52/46
—Brown up 50/48
(Their June poll: Trump 48/41, Brown 50/45.)
Texas
—Trump up by 53/46
—Cruz up 51/46
(Their March poll: Trump 48/36, Cruz 51/45.)
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I don’t want to sound cocky on the Marist FL numbers, but, sure, Jan!
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And TX a bigger margin than either FL or OH?
Sure, Jan…
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Trump will win Texas 54-45
Florida he will win 53-46
book it
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