According to new Insider Advantage polling taken Oct. 7-8 against 800 LV
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 47 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 45 |
| Casey | 47 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
73 responses to “Trump up 2 and McCormick down 2 in PA”
First
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RCP average in PA is now in the red, Trump +0.2
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris
But look what happens when they drop out that Morning Consult outlier.
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No Tossups map, Trump at 281 EVs
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
26m
POLLSTER IN PENNSYLVANIA: “It appears that Harris’s support from African American males is actually deteriorating.”
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news is never ALL good…
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
4m
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery, who just released a PA poll, also said he is seeing growth for Trump in Michigan. Standing by for poll release hopefully this week…
Last Poll of MI from InsiderAdvantage was Trump 49, Harris 48…so growth for Trump on top of a lead!
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Demented is traveling to Germany on Fridays despite the hurricane.
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Not sure who would vote for Trump but not McCormick.
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Notice on the RCP map above, Maryland Senate race is actually closer than Arizona. If she loses, does this mean we can finally get rid of Kari Lake as a candidate. How many elections has she lost us. Anyone think Ducey would be losing? Why didn’t he run?
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Reno Nevada rally added for Friday.
I am going.
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If woodwart is accurate, demented indicates that the obumbler phuqed up ukraine.
demented hates bibi
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Because the Jan/Tina wing of the party has an electoral death wish. Lake is a loon.
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As a party, we have nominated loons in winnable Senate races for years. Lake, Walker, the Witch, Moordack, etc.
Some of those we won back, eventually. Not the Witch. We lost that seat for a long time.
It would be nice if primary voters considered the general election when they cast their ballots.
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What message would that send by winning?
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I pray to God that lake is done as a candidate after this. I think she’s lost on every level of state and federal elections after this one.
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The Witch really really hurt. Castle would have held that seat for at least one, if not more, cycles. The sad part is that I think she won with only about 10,000 votes. No one came out for the primary. I guess they thought Castle had it won.
And then of course Dems got Murdoch nominated, getting involved in making sure the worst candidate got the nomination
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New @CookPolitical House rating changes: two Mid-Atlantic races shift in Republicans’ favor. NJ07 Kean (R) – Toss Up to Lean R VA07 OPEN (Spanberger) (D) – Lean D to Toss Up
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Lake has only lost one race, the governor’s contest in 2022. She’s certainly on track to lose this year, but let’s not exaggerate her performance thus far.
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Election Day terror plot foiled by the FBI.
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1843782845829136507?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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But she sends messages, damn it!
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Baris:
In the field right now in Pennsylvania.
Trump is garnering more than 2 in 10 black men, and those who initially say they are undecided (≈8%) are breaking for him, as well.
≈11% of black women are backing Trump, up from mid-single digits in our polling back in 2020.
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if Trump gets 20% of black men in PA, what Demographic would Harris pull from to make it up? Illegal immigrants?
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not a good poll for Trump, no way to sugar coat it:
NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 47%
🟡 Undecided: 3%
Cygnal | Oct. 2-3 | N=1,500LVs
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from the Cygnal poll: “Harris’ image among Independents net shifted -10 points, going from a +6 net favorability to -4. Trump’s image among the same group shifted +13 points.”
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aNave they done nati9nal surveys before? Thought they were state races only,
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Cygnal has been polling nationally all year.
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So Trump gained in favorability and Harris lost favorability. Yet she’s up 3???
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Someone commented that Trump is getting 23% of the black vote in that Poll. If Trump gets 23% of the black vote Nationally, he’s not losing.
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Lake is a loser kook.
The silver lining is that hopefully she will be gone for good.
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wanted to repost my Virginia analysis from dead thread:
Here is my take on Virginia. Given that the GOP just three years ago swept all the top three statewide races, Gov, Lt. Gov and Attorney Gen, and that the race overall is much more similar to 2016 than 2020, here is a reminder of how 2016 went:
Trump lost it to Hillary in 2016 49.73% for Hillary to 44.41% for Trump.
Raw votes:
Hillary 1,981,473
Trump 1,769,443
The libertarian in the race grabbed 118,274 votes, 2.97%.
Conservative independent Evan McMullin got 54,054 votes, 1.36%
This time, Oliver, the Libertarian is a leftist loon. And there is no McMullin this time either. And in fact, Kennedy was removed from the VA ballot, and the only candidate who failed to get on was the Constitution Party candidate. So the full ballot helps Trump in Virginia compared to 2016 where it hurt him.
I believe the RFK endorsement does help Trump in Virginia, as I know there are a lot of people here who fit that mold, and most of them now will likely vote for Trump.
Trump can win Virginia if…
a) The western rural areas run up the score and squeeze out of the mountains literally every vote they can get for Trump.
b) Turnout in Richmond, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton stays as mediocre as it is in early voting.
c) Trump gains the edge in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.
d) The heavy Dem areas around DC turn out not quite as deep blue as normal, particularly in the counties just further out.
Right now, I have Trump losing by 2, but there is still nearly a month left to move the needle, although 12% of the 2020 total have already voted.
Even if Trump loses Virginia, the optics on election night showing early rural returns in Virginia pushing up a huge Trump lead can help set the narrative that Harris is in trouble.
But if course if Trump actually pulls it off, the election will be over by 9:00 pm
and just as a reminder, here are the polling results from a very diverse group of pollsters:
Roanoke College: Harris +3
Quantus: Harris +3
Rasmussen: Harris +3
University of Mary Washington: Harris +1
Democracy Institute: Harris +2
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Lake had the full support of NYC and Chuck Schumer.
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DW I honestly think at -3% he wins, it the -4% that start to worry me.
and GF – you are correct. I had thought she lost a congressional race, but I was wrong. Just seems like she’s been around for years, losing very winnable elections.
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Vic, I agree on the -3. Even -3.1 or -3.3…but getting up to -3.7 or -3.8, yes, too close for comfort.
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DW – Trump could win MAss, NY and NJ and the race wouldn’t be over at 9pm. The media will NEVER call a presidential race for Republicans early, number one they can’t pull themselves to say it. Number 2 – they are functioning members of the Democratic party and have to follow orders, which means not calling races early as it might hurt downballot races in the West 3. Ratings
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There are a bunch more races Lake could lose if we just give her a chance.
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Who are your neighbors most likely voting for in the upcoming election for president?
Trump 44% (+12)
Harris 32%
.@cygnal, 1,500 LV, 10/2-3
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Did you read about how cbs 60 seconds edited quemalas interview?
1984 is here.
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/new-cbs-edited-kamala-harris-60-minutes-interview-to-remove-word-salad-mace/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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I think Melania needs to make appearances for trump. She can help win over some of the wine chicks.
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I wonder if Jan has named a fish after her yet.
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Is there any woman Tina doesn’t hate?
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Looks like the alleged afghani Election Day terrorists were granted parole in 2021.
Another black eye for Quemala.
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There are a bunch more races Lake could lose if we just give her a chance.”
I am sure the deadenders will be more than happy to oblige.
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It would be nice if primary voters considered the general election when they cast their ballots.”
Nah, that doesn’t send a message.
Remember NYC’s motto:
“Better a liberal Democrat that votes against conservatives 100% of the time than a RINO that only votes with conservatives 90% of the time”!
SEND A MESSAGE!
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Tomorrow, there are 2 trump pa rallies
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NYC has a signed portrait of Chuck Schumer in his living room for his help in electing Senators Buck, Akin, Angle, COD, Mourdock, McDaniel, Hovde, Moore, Brooks, Bolduc and other such fine candidates.
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Oh wait, we can’t forget “East Germany is a model for immigration policy” Joe Miller!
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Don’t vomit.
Howard Stern used to be anti-establishment and funny. Now he is a sad little apparachik.
Howard Stern to Kamala Harris: “When — when you said you don’t nap, I get it because, like, what you’ve taken on is extraordinarily difficult. And I — I mean, do you feel the pressure of the moment in the sense that — like — I — when I met you out in the hall, I said I’m really nervous because I want this to go well for you. I want it to go well for the country. Even when I watched them on Saturday Night Live with the — um — where they have Maya Rudolph playing you.” Harris: “Yeah. Mmhmm.” Stern: I hate it. I don’t want you being made fun of. I — I — I — I — there’s too much at stake. I believe the entire future of this country right now. I mean, as America land of the free, home of the brave. I think it’s literally on the line.” Harris: “I agree with you.”
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I used to listen to Howard Stern. He was funny. I guess being able to do anything he wanted to do on Sirius allowed his inner weenie to come out.
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Melanias interview are more impressive than quemala.
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She needs to go on the View…Kamala did, the irony is that the women would treat her horribly, but I bet she would do infiinitely better than Kamala
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Romney says he won’t vote for Trump because that will “preserve his influence” in “recreating the party”.
Maybe there is someone with less influence than Romney, I just can’t think who it could be.
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Romney has truly lost his mind if he thinks a. He’s relevant b. He’s going to recreate the party in his image.
He was the original flip flopper depending on shared he was running and what he was running for. Still backed him in ‘12 because he was a better option than Obama but I can almost guarantee his judges would have been a nightmare if wishy washy “centrists” who would have moved left and joined the SotohateWhitey wing of the sc
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regarding the upcoming Florida hurricane it seems RDS is not messing around…or playing politics. He’s called Biden and already begun arranging help and aid to come after the storm hirs
do not expect a Blowhard Christie hug from RDS. He’s not messing around with Kamala and she can go campaign elsewhere
it will, again, be interesting to see how this affects voting, though it appears it may hit a more D heavy part of the state in Tampa and Orlando.
I do hope everyone took RDS advice and got to safety.
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$120 MILLION Profits Made From Sex Changes on Minors.
U.S. hospitals made nearly $120 million from inflicting sex-change procedures on an estimated 14,000 minors between 2019 and 2023. The stunning profit pulled in by American healthcare providers was revealed through recent data compiled by Do No Harm. The group’s database indicates that 5,747 minors underwent surgical gender reassignment, while 8,579 received puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones. show more
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Counties Devastated by Hurricane Helene Allowed to Change Voting Plans.
The western North Carolina counties ravaged by Hurricane Helene will be allowed a degree of flexibility in their voting plans after a vote by the North Carolina State Board of Elections on Monday. Adopted by a unanimous vote, the election board passed a resolution authorizing the impacted counties to change early voting and Election Day polling sites, increased discretion in the appointment of poll workers, and greater flexibility for votes on they receive and return their absentee ballots. show more
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RNC Legal Fail Means Officials CAN ‘Cure’ Ballots After They’ve Been Cast.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has declined to hear a lawsuit brought by the Republican National Committee (RNC) and Pennsylvania GOP to halt several of the state’s counties from engaging in so-called “notice and cure” procedures, which allow voters to make changes to their mail-in ballots after they are cast. According to the court, the lawsuit brought by the RNC and state party was too close to the election for a ruling to be made.
Critics have long alleged that the RNC under Ronna Romney-McDaniel and its new leadership had failed to take the required actions quickly enough to materially impact the 2024 election, with this case serving as further evidence. Chris LaCivita and Michael Whatley took over the RNC from McDaniel in early March 2024, allowing for plenty of time to file the case over the summer. They sued in late September, six months later.
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Previously, the state’s high court held that counties do not have to allow “notice and cure” procedures; however, over half of Pennsylvania’s counties allow the practice.
While the court’s decision to not hear the “notice and cure” lawsuit is a blow to election integrity efforts in Pennsylvania—a critical swing state in the 2024 election that some believe may determine the presidential contest—the court did deliver a win for fair elections in a second decision handed down.
The court declined to hear a lawsuit brought by Democrat-aligned voting rights groups challenging a Pennsylvania law requiring mail-in ballots to be posted with the correct date in order to be tallied. Like the RNC lawsuit, the court determined that the filing had been made too close to the election to be ruled upon.
During the 2022 mid-term election, around 10,000 mail-in ballots were disqualified because their envelopes did not have the correct date. show less
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Massive COVID Fund Fraud Occurred Kamala’s VP Pick, Gov. Tim Walz.
Dozens of Somali immigrants are involved in the largest COVID-19 fraud case in the United States, which saw the fraudsters net over $250 million in Governor Tim Walz’s Minnesota. A total of 47 Somali immigrants in Minneapolis, Minnesota, stand accused of embezzling $250 million in federal aid in the North Star State, run by Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s running mate. He has previously praised the Somali community in Minnesota, arguing they contribute to the state culturally and demographically. show more
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https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/10/08/charlamagne-tha-god-trumps-america-first-message-resonates-with-voters-kamalas-ticket-very-out-of-touch/
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Trump:
I’ve never seen this before, but the producers of 60 Minutes sliced and diced (“cut and pasted”) Lyin’ Kamala’s answers to questions, which were virtually incoherent, over and over again, some by as many as four times in a single sentence or thought, all in an effort, possibly illegal as part of the “News Division,” which must be licensed, to make her look “more Presidential,” or a least, better. It may also be a major Campaign Finance Violation. This is a stain on the reputation of 60 Minutes that is not recoverable – It will always remain with this once storied brand. I have never heard of such a thing being done in “News.” It is the very definition of FAKE NEWS! The public is owed a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE APOLOGY! This is an open and shut case, and must be investigated, starting today!
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General election poll
🔴 Trump 51% (+2)
🔵 Harris 49%
Last poll – 🔵 Harris +1
ActiVote #N/A – 1000 LV – 10/8
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Donald Trump will host a rally at Madison Square Garden to finish up his 2024 campaign
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ARIZONA poll
🔴 Trump: 51% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 49%
ActiVote | Sept. 6-Oct. 8 | N=400LV
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Mark Halperin: “I just saw some new private polling that’s very robust. Private polling. Kamala is in a lot of trouble…In the conversations I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish.” –
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I wonder if mark Halper in is referring to the internal poles from the drat wi and mi senate candidates, or other polling?
No doubt joys media events have been a disaster.
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Halperin likes attention and this is one way to get it.
Don’t forget that his inside information in 2016 was that Hillary was going to win.
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Also nobody in the Trump campaign would talk to Mark Halperin so take his conversations with “Trump people” with a grain of salt.
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Interesting that on Predictit a GOP blowout of +65-104 is actually (21%) the most bet EC college prediction.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8077/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2024-presidential-election
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electoral college i should say
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Huh, I did say it, where’s my coffee
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new thread
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