According to the NY Times/Siena
 | FLORIDA |
| Trump | 55 |
| Harris | 41 |
 | TEXAS |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 44 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
61 responses to “Trump up 14 in Florida, 6 in Texas”
So Trump lost ground on Morning Consult (-1) and Sienna (-3) but gained on Ipsos (+4)?
Not all bad
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I would say both poles are off. I could see trump plus 8 in both states.
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shipwreckedcrew
If Harris was in a strong position to win she would be barnstorming the country with House and Senate candidates in close races in an effort to generate coattails for majorities in Congress. She is not – she can hardly bring herself to be interviewed by anyone who has not endorsed her. She goes on a podcast that is targeted at women under 40 – if she doesn’t have that demographic banked 30 days out from the election then put a fork in her – she’s done.
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1,798 Views
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It is strange that she is doin programs like 60 seconds, view less, and the drunk, un comedy hosts. Groups she should have already locked up.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/devout-public-servant-harris-asked-explain-policy-flip-flops-cbs-60-minutes
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Its not all bad, jason is right. I have already written off Morning Consult. They are going to stay locked into Harris +5 or +6 from here on out. But they are historically a terrible pollster, so there is that.
But the gains in IPSOS, TIPP, Yahoo/YouGov, RMG Research, Data for Progress (D), together outweigh NY Times and Morning Consult
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https://www.westernjournal.com/kamala-harris-accidentally-shows-no-idea-tax-plan-works/?utm_source=site&utm_medium=aggregator10&utm_campaign=can
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Dw, also the internal poles, Pa, wi, and Michigan. All done by the drat senate campaigns. Not sure why they are “releasing the internals”.
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The wi senate race is now a tossup per the cook political report.
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It’s scary tha quemala does not know the difference between a tax deduction, an expense, and start up capital. Yikes, she is one dumb attorney.
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Biden and Casey will be screwing up traffic in Montgomery County. At least it should not mess up my train.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/philadelphia/news/joe-biden-bob-casey-campaign-montgomery-county-pennsylvania/
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This might explain the confidence Trump has in going to California and Colorado:
Mark Halperin-“There are not an insignificant number of Republicans who say the race is effectively over,” says @MarkHalperin. “That, as I reported a month ago, Trump is going to lock up the Sunbelt states, probably all four, but at least three. And then he’s going to win Pennsylvania, and that checkmates her. They may be wrong. But there’s a not insignificant number of them who are quite confident of that. And the data they’ve seen on the absentees and the early votes and the voter registration makes them more confident.”
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Halperin has been a pretty straight shooter this cycle.
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Bitter is using traffic as an excuse not to attend the rally and give us a report.
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Don’t be fooled by Halperin he is a flaming liberal.
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I guess they are desperate… geezus
“He Intends To Do It!’ Michael Cohen Warns Jen Psaki That Trump Will Use Seal Team Six to ‘Round Up’ Critics And Opponents”
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jason, they are casting their own behavior on Trump. That’s the stuff THEY do, so they presume Trump would do the same. But he won’t.
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Yes, “he did that already” the last time. They are so despicable with their civil war claims and lock-in up political prisoners for walking through the Capitol.
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Jen Psaki was Press Secretary, an important position.
The fact she would be willing to have this guy on her show to say this shows how unhinged these people really are.
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I bet in the same segment Jen Psaki said Trump lied about something, but she won’t push back on Cohen saying Trump will use Seal Team Six to “round up critics”
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I guess Biden didn’t have trouble reaching DeSantis.
“Tonight, I spoke with Florida Governor DeSantis and Tampa Mayor Castor for firsthand reports on Hurricane Helene recovery and preparations for Hurricane Milton. My Administration is ready to support both leaders and the people of Florida with any further resources they may need.”
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Virginia early vote update. The numbers from yesterday, the four GOP leaning congressional districts picked up another nearly 800 votes better than the DEM leaning districts. Lagging way behind is Dem stronghold district 3, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton
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But Rds did not speak to quemala.
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I already told you I wouldn’t attend a rally for any candidate if it was in my house.
And Ma can F off. The post was directed to me.
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lol
Kamala: “No one should be able to take for granted that they can just declare themselves a candidate and automatically receive support. You have to earn it.”
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Harris cannot even match Biden’s 2020 numbers in Massachusetts:
Oct. 1-5
500 LV
Suffolk University
The Boston Globe
Harris 61% (+29)
Trump 32%
The gap in 2020 was Biden +33.46
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https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/10/08/new-more-kamala-60-minutes-n2180271#google_vignette
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I wonder if there an Evil Twin HHR blog where the leftists are discussing all the reasons Harris is favored to win.
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its called Dailykos
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Bitter is using traffic as an excuse not to attend the rally and give us a report.”
“The post was directed to me.”
Now that is one smart A-hole…..
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We should have a real prize for the winner of the prediction thread this year.
Maybe Bitter can have a trophy made up, does not have to be solid gold, gold plated will do.
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Doltz again refers to himself as a nucklehead during the 60 seconds interview.
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My prediction will be revised, but here it is right now.
Trump wins AZ, GA and all three blue wall states, WI, MI and PA.
Rs win 54 senate seats, pick up WV, OH, MT and 1/3 MI or WI or PA.
D’s win house with a 3 seat majority.
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Jason.
I would say you are correct on GA and AZ, and PA, MI…still concerned about WI, and because of the hurricaine NC
Your total should be 53 if they pick up 1 of the last three, as WV I believe gets R’s to 50…I do think 53 is correct.
I think the R’s hold a +12 margin in the House after the election
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I don’t know whose going to win. I tend to think Trump is the slight favorite. Many of the fundamentals seem to be in his favor:
a) Its a change election with the economy the #1 issue.
b) Trump has the advantage of a measure of incumbency, without being on the hook for the disaster of the last four years.
c) Harris seems to be a horrible candidate who commits blunder after blunder. Even one of Trump’s worst weaknesses (his sordid private life), Harris managed to neutralize by giving an interview to a self-professed hoar to expose the bizarre and disgusting things she is PROUD of doing.
d) I have followed elections a long time, and have never seen so many battleground state polls from far left pollster favor the Republican candidate like this.
e) Early voting seems strong for the GOP.
f) Voter registration numbers in critical Pennsylvania clearly puts Trump as the favorite to win, but narrowly. If Trump wins PA, its hard for him to lose the election.
g) Harris’ attempts to expand the map have laughably collapsed, with the NY Times/Siena numbers coming out of TX and FL, and in NC Trump has led the last SEVEN polls of the state, include two point leads from far-left pollsters Quinnipiac and Redfield & Wilton.
h) By comparison, Trump still has some open paths to expanding the map beyond the 7 battlegrounds, as in VA, MN, and NH, and perhaps a couple of others.
i) We must always be cautious about the leaking of internal polls, but there have been several suggesting that Harris is in trouble.
j) The classic Are you Better off than 4 years ago question, plays in Trump’s favor, particularly now that voters think better of the Trump years than they did at the time when he left office.
There are probably other things I am forgetting, but against all this is still the threat of widescale election fraud, which will be better or worse depending on the state.
Here are my current guesses:
FL: Trump +11
TX: Trump +9
NC: Trump +5
GA: Trump +4
PA: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +2 (expecting a lot of fraud)
WI: Trump +2
MI: Trump +2
NV: Trump +1
VA: Harris +2
MN: Harris +3
NH: Harris +4
NM: Harris +5
National popular: Trump +1.4
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I’ll bite
FL: Trump +6
TX: Trump +8
NC: Trump +0.5 (hurricane)
GA: Trump +2
PA: Trump +2
AZ: Trump +2 (expecting a lot of fraud)
WI: Harris +0.4
MI: Trump +2
NV: Trump +1
VA: Harris +6
MN: Harris +3
NH: Harris +7
NM: Harris +7
National popular: Harris +1.6
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They keep polling Texas over and over desperate to even get themselves an outlier they can trumpet…but all to no avail:
TEXAS GE: FAU/
@MainStUSApolls
🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Senate
🟥 Cruz (inc): 47%
🟦 Allred: 44% 86 (2.0/3.0) | October 2-6| 775 LV
https://faupolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Mainstreet_TX_Oct_2024_Public.pdf
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I thought of that but it is too large. I was thinking more HHR-scale.
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Your total should be 53 if they pick up 1 of the last three, as WV I believe gets R’s to 50…I do think 53 is correct”
Yep, my math was off.
GFY.
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I wonder if there an Evil Twin HHR blog where the leftists are discussing all the reasons Harris is favored to win.”
I checked DKos.
Their headline is HARRIS NAILS 60 MINUTE INTERVIEW.
There you go.
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Q on The View: Is there something you would have done differently than President Biden in the last four years? HARRIS: “There is not a thing that comes to mind..
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But her motto is A NEW WAY FORWARD….
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I have to admit I agree with Tina. Why is she doing interviews on the View. She has the woman who thinks abortion is God vote locked down. There is no marginal viewer in a swing state that is going to change and vote for Harris because she’s on the view.
I get she can trumpet a softball interview, but the average American thinks the View is trash.
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Yeah Jason, that was a major gaffe. Here’s the link to that segment on the view.
https://x.com/timmurtaugh/status/1843673157112398253?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Michael Pruser:
I have been tracking PA absentee requests and returns since the primary in 2020. Today was the first time in just over four years (10 statewide elections) that Republicans out-requested Democrats in mail absentees for the previous day.
🔴8,299 Republican requests
🔵8,079 Democratic requests
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Here is my take on Virginia. Given that the GOP just three years ago swept all the top three statewide races, Gov, Lt. Gov and Attorney Gen, and that the race overall is much more similar to 2016 than 2020, here is a reminder of how 2016 went:
Trump lost it to Hillary in 2016 49.73% for Hillary to 44.41% for Trump.
Raw votes:
Hillary 1,981,473
Trump 1,769,443
The libertarian in the race grabbed 118,274 votes, 2.97%.
Conservative independent Evan McMullin got 54,054 votes, 1.36%
This time, Oliver, the Libertarian is a leftist loon. And there is no McMullin this time either. And in fact, Kennedy was removed from the VA ballot, and the only candidate who failed to get on was the Constitution Party candidate. So the full ballot helps Trump in Virginia compared to 2016 where it hurt him.
I believe the RFK endorsement does help Trump in Virginia, as I know there are a lot of people here who fit that mold, and most of them now will likely vote for Trump.
Trump can win Virginia if…
a) The western rural areas run up the score and squeeze out of the mountains literally every vote they can get for Trump.
b) Turnout in Richmond, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton stays as mediocre as it is in early voting.
c) Trump gains the edge in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.
d) The heavy Dem areas around DC turn out not quite as deep blue as normal, particularly in the counties just further out.
Right now, I have Trump losing by 2, but there is still nearly a month left to move the needle, although 12% of the 2020 total have already voted.
Even if Trump loses Virginia, the optics on election night showing early rural returns in Virginia pushing up a huge Trump lead can help set the narrative that Harris is in trouble.
But if course if Trump actually pulls it off, the election will be over by 9:00 pm
and just as a reminder, here are the polling results from a very diverse group of pollsters:
Roanoke College: Harris +3
Quantus: Harris +3
Rasmussen: Harris +3
University of Mary Washington: Harris +1
Democracy Institute: Harris +2
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Not sure if anyone posted this.
Rating change – Cook political
Ohio Senate – Tossup 🟡 ➡️ 🔴 Lean
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did not notice that. Wow
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Cook always leaves incumbents as tossups. Brown must be cooked in the high quality, high $$$ polling.
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Lol. Demented throws shade
“Kamala yesterday accused Gov. DeSantis of “playing political games” with the incoming hurricane in Florida. Today, Biden said that DeSantis “has been cooperative” and is “doing a great job.”
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I guess the reports of cat fights between the nurse and Quemala are true.
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Quemala calls for mass amnesty on the view less.
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Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
Why has the Harris campaign plateaued and now seemingly in serious decline? IMO it shows the post-convention switch in campaign management from old Obama campaign staff — who came in when the Biden staff was sent packing — to Harris’ own campaign staff from her 2019 primary campaign led by her sister and brother-in-law. That group needed the Obama folks at first, but it wasn’t lost on them that Obama took a week before he endorsed her rather than have any meaningful contest at the convention. There were numerous stories that Obama didn’t think she could win. Harris’ campaign staff was incompetent in 2019 and they are incompetent now. They are Calif-centric and wildly progressive. They are ideologically aligned with the most extreme factions of the Dem party and incapable of moderating their policy agenda for a 50 state race — so they have just kept it under wraps. But, they had no plan for how to EFFECTIVELY deal with all the policy shifts they had to pretend to have from all the things she said in 2019 to now. The Harris campaign leadership is a clown show.
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Of course its a clown show. Harris is the first national candidate in U.S. history to sit down to an interview and freely affirm that she puts a rubber band around her husband’s #### until they turn blue, and then she #### him, and #### and ####.
Portraying as normal behavior that medical doctors would agree is dangerous and could cause permanent health issues.
And this interview was supposed to reach exactly who?
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Just so you know, DW, that was a parody AI interview. That said, Doug is a cuck Beta, and I can see her dominating him like that. Beta “allies” resent women and the power that women hold over them, hence why they get violent and slap women across the face, or do “things” to cause miscarriages in lovers carrying their b@stards that necessitate $80k hush money payouts and NDAs.
Not that all Beta cucks do that, just some.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
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19m
🚨 JUST IN: Biden says he gave DeSantis his direct phone number, that the Florida governor has been doing a “great job” with disaster response
This after Harris threw RDS under the bus for not picking up her phone. I am really starting to agree that it seems Biden doesn’t want her to win.
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okay, GF, its an area I stay away from, and have no interest in learning the jargon!
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new thread
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Tom Bevan: How could you go on national tv and not expect this question and have a prepared answer?https://x.com/tombevanrcp/status/1843681457560269239?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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DW,
Yes, it’s pretty clear that both Biden’s want Harris to lose.
I would suggest to President Trump that he no longer attack Biden, but focus solely on Harris. Apparently, both Biden’s hate Harris more than they hate President Trump.
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