Bullfinch Group steps up with a Harris +4 and Casey +10 poll of Pennsylvania (Sept. 26-29; N=800 RV):
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 50 |
| U.S. Senate | |
| McCormick | 42 |
| Casey | 52 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
35 responses to “Just to avoid any perception that we only post polls favorable to Trump”
First again
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That A-hole was just too full of himself so I had to take corrective action.
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And thanks for the chemtrail, DW
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Never trust a poll that has the word “bull” in it.
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Son of a Sea Cock !!!!!
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MUSK: “There’s no point in criticizing Kamala Harris, she’s simply the face of a much larger machine. She’ll say whatever is on the teleprompter. She’ll get stuck if the teleprompter breaks…it’s whoever controls the teleprompter who is in charge.”TUCKER: “Who is that?”MUSK: “It’s not any one mastermind. Kamala is a sort of marionette with somewhere north of 100 (handlers)”TUCKER: “I bet you know 80 of them.”MUSK: “I probably know most of them.” 😂
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@greg_price11
Behar: “I personally cannot understand why anyone would vote for [Trump]. A lot of it is, I think, people getting bad information from other channels.”
Kamala: *nods in agreement*
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As a reminder, Bullfinch group is new, and their results have been all over the place this year. Back in April they had Trump 40, Biden 35 in the state of WASHINGTON
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I personally cannot understand why anyone would vote for anyone Joy Behar votes for.
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Is bullsheot legit? Dw?
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-biden-admits-ukraine-conflict-is-obamas-fault-in-major-interview-mstef/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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Bullfinch has no track record whatsoever. I am documenting all the polling so I can then produce grades after the election. I see an F coming for them.
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Harris +2.0 on the RCP average, looks like Morning Consult is not up yet or they no longer use it.
On Oct8, 2020, Biden was +9 on their average. In 2016 they had it +4.6.
Harris is +7.9 favorability rating.
On Oct8 2020 it was D +18.2. In 2016 it was D+ 11.1
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Does rcp include bashams poles.
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IF the polling standards and/or errors are the same through all 3 elections (a big if on an individual poll but maybe not so big an if on an aggregate poll) this is really good news for Trump.
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https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
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Basham = democracy institute.
I don’t see the pole @ rcp. Also, rcp has the old morning consultation pole and the old Ras pole. Ras is +3 yesterday. Prolly a wash between those 2.
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Silvehack’s formula to ensure he will never be wrong.
update: 11 a.m., Tuesday, October 8. There’s lots of new polling for a change — but it made no real difference on balance. The forecast remains in the very close zone of Kamala Harris being a 55/45 favroite — in other words, basically, a toss-up
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don’t see the pole @ rcp. Also, rcp has the old morning consultation pole and the old Ras pole. Ras is +3 yesterday. Prolly a wash between those 2.”
Irrelevant if you want to see what the trend is from the past 2 elections.
You can disagree with their methodology, but if you want to compare the numbers, you want them to keep the same methodology.
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Its clear that Trump runs ahead of the senate candidates in nearly all polling of PA, WI, AZ, NV, MI, VA, MT, FL, and TX. The only exception is Maryland for obvious reasons.
AZ has candidate quality issues for the GOP. But otherwise, the disparity can be explained somewhat by incumbency, though that is not the case in Michigan where the gap between Trump and Rogers is less.
I am going to be really interested in watching these actual gaps on election night.
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Point is they are excluding bashams pole and hav not updated fully? Why are they excluding his pole is what I asked, if they are.
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I will plan a new thread for after 5:00, with whatever new polling is available then. Until then,
ARIZONA poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for AARP
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 48%
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
AZ Senate
🟦 Gallego: 51%
🟥 Lake: 44%
—— 140 (1.7/3.0) | 600 LV | 9/24-10/1 | ±4%
https://aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/arizona-older-voter-survey-report-october-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.044.pdf
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Quemala is doing about 7 points worse than demented
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Point is they are excluding bashams pole and hav not updated fully? Why are they excluding his pole is what I asked, if they are”
Well, the average shows Harris+2 so adding another poll of her +2 won’t change the numbers. If they add the MC poll it will change it to like +2.2.
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Gallego is a far leftist kook.
Lake is a bad candidate, but the Trump voters splitting tickets for Gallego are morons.
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Biden throws Kamala under the bus when asked about Kamala’s assertion that DeSantis was being “selfish”
The Governor of Florida has been cooperative. He’s said he’s gotten all that he needs. I talked to him again yesterday and I said — a — boy — I said I know you’re doing a great job. It’s being all — being done well, we thank you for it and I literally gave him my personal phone number to call..
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WEDNESDAY: Scranton and Reading, PA
FRIDAY: Aurora, CO
SATURDAY: Coachella, CA
SUNDAY: Prescott Valley, AZ OCT. 23: Duluth, GA
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The Republican ticket is taking out all the stops and campaigning heavily every week everywhere…..unlike their democrat opponents.
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I particularly like Vance’s routine of combining a campaign stop with a press conference afterwards, calling first on local press, than secondarily the biased national press.
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this is the way:
Reporter: Will you respond to Bob Woodward’s new reporting about Trump and Putin?
JD Vance: “I honestly didn’t know Bob Woodward was still alive”
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I also want to give kudos to DeSantis in his handling of these hurricanes, as well as the VP’s and POTUS’s disjointed responses. He is continuing to grow as an accomplished politician and leader.
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Trump was -2 in RAS tracker
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Tina, that was a great response to the Woodward question, including calling him a “hack,” which he certainly is.
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Went ahead and put up the New Thread now
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There are so many anecdotal stories coming out about FEMA confiscating donations of supplies from the private sector meant for victims of Helene. A friend of mine from SC was telling me yesterday that community ties in the Carolinas are very tight, used to helping each other out during these catastrophic times. She remembers, when she lived in SC, going on buses to areas brutalized by storms and helping to clean up water/mud-damaged houses. People depended more on each other than just waiting for the government to pitch in. In fact, many people are saying FEMA’s response has not only been too little too late, but they also have gotten in the way of the real workers – reserving hotel space for FEMA workers not working, etc.
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