New poll of Arizona from RMG Research 9/30-10/02; 783 LV
 | ARIZONA |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 46 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
New poll of Arizona from RMG Research 9/30-10/02; 783 LV
| ARIZONA |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 46 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
126 responses to “Remember 10/7/2023. Stand with Israel or GFY.”
uno
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funny that the most recent nominee for Hezbollah leader turned it down. I cannot recall the guy’s name, but his nickname might have been bunu.
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MSNBC said Trump taking a bullet was laughable
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re posting:
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Quemala plus 3. Tipp national pole.
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Going to add the Arizona poll here. I don’t want to replace the anniversary thread.
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Trump War Room
·
Oct 6, 2024
@TrumpWarRoom
·
Follow
MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell: Kamala needs to “double down” on doing serious interviews. “She’s got such a big problem with men… Black and White men — big problem. But also the business world. They don’t think she’s serious. They don’t think she’s a heavyweight.”
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Stand with Israel or GFY.
Amen. Best title for a thread in months!
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NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔵 Harris: 51% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 49%
ActiVote | Sept. 7-Oct. 6 | N=400LV
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Harris would only be ahead in NC if they polled voters in Raleigh, Chapel Hill and Durham. Such a bs poll.
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I don’t pay any attention to Activote poles. I think there is a plus 6 pole for,trump in Florida from that same group.
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ActiVote are not scientific polls. Most of them take a full month to collect just 400 likely voters. The response bias is so bad that the internals cannot be reweighted without scrambling the data so bad that its nonsensical.
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Yeah, their weighting is crazy. That’s NC poll is something like D+18 reiweighted to like D+5.
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@EricLDaugh
BREAKING: New PENNSYLVANIA poll finds Trump ahead in the “bellwether” counties of Erie and Northampton. Each county voted for the winning candidate in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020. Trump also has a net-11 point job approval rating from his first term in office in the counties.
·
2,079 Views
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Trump up +3 at Polymarket Nationally, and +10 in Pennsylvania again.
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I have no clue what Quemala said in that word salad.
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Stand with Israel!
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More on that pa pole of the 2 counties:
https://www.dailywire.com/news/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-slight-edge-in-pennsylvanias-swing-counties
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New Kamala book out…
https://x.com/jackunheard/status/1843056003497218451
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Kamala: “The work that we have done has resulted in a number of movements in that region by Israel that were very much prompted by or a result of many things including our advocacy for what needs to happen in the region.”
MSNBC: She is simply too intelligent for the average person to understand.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/06/campaign-estimates-more-than-105000-people-attended-trumps-return-rally-butler-pennsylvania/
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Looks like there is a new You Gov poll showing Kamala’s lead shrinking form +5 to +2, now 48-46?
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Man sets himself on fire to protest Gaza.
Except he only set his arm on fire.
Maybe its the price of gas.
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Kornacki thinks Trump is doing well in the PA “Latin vote”
“And then, from Trump’s standpoint, there’s a lot of rural counties in the state that have gotten redder, small, rural counties. But let’s talk about this collection here. Some people call this the Latino belt of Pennsylvania. These are counties that have some small to mid-sized cities with rapidly growing Latino populations. And we’ve been talking about Trump improving, relative to 2020 and 2016, among Hispanic voters. Well, you can see it. Here are some of the cities in that Latino belt in Pennsylvania. Reading, Pennsylvania. It’s 70% Latino. Now, it was overwhelmingly Democratic in 2020. Joe Biden won by 45 points. But look at that. That’s down almost 20 points from 2012. Hazelton, Pennsylvania, more than 60% Hispanic. In 2012, Democrats won it narrowly. It’s now a double-digit Trump place. Allentown, it has come down 10 points in its margin for Democrats.”
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I think this is true.
If Trump could get my vote he would get 100% of the Latino vote in Bittersville.
(No, my wife is not Hispanic and she is voting for Trump).
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NEW NATIONAL poll (all candidates included)
🔴 Trump: 47% (=) [+2]
🔵 Harris: 47% [-2]
[+/- from last poll]
Yahoo & YouGov | Oct. 2-4 | LVs
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there have been four national polls released where at least half the sample was taken after Vance mopped the floor with Walz, and in all four the race moved in Trump’s direction, shrinking the Harris lead
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I saw the cross tabs on that poll, it shows Vance winning the debate like 41-32.
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The TIPP poll moved the RCP average to +2.3, not good.I don’t see the You Gov poll there yet, or maybe they don’t use it.
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Tim Doltz is the gift that keeps on giving.
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47-47 would give Trump a comfortable EC win, I don’t see how he doesn’t get at least one blue wall state with that number, and it locks in NC, GA, and AZ and probably NV.
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How did Tim become Sam?
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Doltz is not qualified to be vice president. The school shooter comment (along with Quemala being portrayed as an alcoholic mess) made it to snl.
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There are not THAT many school shooters still alive and available for Walz to befriend. Did anyone follow up to learn which shooter it was that he was pals with?
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Wow what an increase in pa registrations for the Rs over the last month.
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BREAKING: Pennsylvania Republicans DEMOLISH Democrats in voter registration over the last month, nearly 2 TO 1!
Republican: +60,710 (47%) [+19]
Democratic: +35,854 (28%)
Other: +32,698 (25%)
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please fix. Sorry doing my 6 mile power walk this am and it’s hard to copy from the phone.
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Trump continues to move up at Polymarket.
Trump: 51.7%
Harris: 47.7%
Also noticed that he is now within 4 points in Michigan .
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I actually believe Walz misspoke about the school shooters and that he meant to say victims (or family of the victims).
But there is no free lunch and Vance would not get any free passes from the MSM, so f–k him.
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Here comes the Kamala polls.
General election poll
🔵 Harris 49% (+4)
🔴 Trump 45%
Research #C – 1001 LV – 10/6
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The local R party in York is very active registering voters. They have booths at all events. I don’t see anything from the Dems although a lonely high school kid showed up to ask me to vote for a Dem state legislator who is certain to lose.
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Way to go quemala./s
“Russian Arms Dealer and “Merchant of Death” Viktor Bout Who Joe Biden Exchanged for Pot-Smoking Brittney Griner Is Back in Business Selling $10 Million in Arms to Houthi Rebels”
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Change Sam to Tim. Got it.
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wow, here is an amazing spin:
“The thing that’s good for Harris about Pennsylvania Republicans out registering Democrats 2-to-1 and mail being redder is that this actually increases the GOP Election Day vote cannibalization rate.”
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PredictIT now at Trump 51, Harris 53
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actually increases the GOP Election Day vote cannibalization rate.”
This is true and one reason I don’t really believe in the strategy of voting by mail.
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Besides, if I voted now it could cost Trump a vote.
Hope springs eternal that Vance will disavow Ron Paul’s foreign policy agenda before the election.
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SoCal Strategies@SocalStrategies
·
12m
Coming tomorrow morning: #new SoCal Strategies Final Arizona Poll testing Trump v Harris, Lake v Gallego, the winner of the VP debate, and more!
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It should be noted that I have special dispensation from Janzam who stated that Trump doesn’t need votes from people like me so if he loses PA by one vote I won’t feel bad.
If Bitter attacks me for that I will just refer him to Janzam.
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New registration totals do NOT reflect a cannibalization of election day voters. Requests for vote-by-mail ballots MIGHT indicate such a thing, but new registrations have nothing to do with election day voting except that there are new people who are now ELIGIBLE to vote.
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Jen Psaki:
“Walz is a huge untapped asset”.
Wins the “Alternate Universe Award”
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New registration totals do NOT reflect a cannibalization of election day voters. Requests for vote-by-mail ballots MIGHT indicate such a thing, but new registrations have nothing to do with election day voting except that there are new people who are now ELIGIBLE to vote.”
Good point, if Rs are registering more people to vote than Dems that is a net gain however method they choose to vote..
My comment refers only to the choice of voting early or not.
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Albert Hodges changed his name to oahodges so he can post here incognito.
I won’t tell.
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I havent changed anything. What I am registered by now on wordpress is my email rather than my facebook page. I am still Albertus Magnus to the likes of you, Jason.
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Ma, that bait caught a Magnus fish. Good stuff.
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You would think “I won’t tell” would have given the bait away.
But I guess the Magnus fish weren’t at the top of the gene pool for fish.
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The Redfield poll shows Harris gaining in the blue wall, let’s hope that is not true.
The gains for Harris combined are 9-2…
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anyone wondering can find Redfield and Wilton on this chart:
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Michael Moore’s prediction is in.
Trump is toast.
However, his number is 270-268. Lot of margin for error.
https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/do-the-math-trump-is-toast
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EW NATIONAL poll
Trump: 50% (+3)
Harris: 47%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 1% Democracy Institute | Oct. 2-3 | N=1,200LV
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Trump trailing by 2 in nh and va
(same polling firm)
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Trump down 4 in mn.
same firm*
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Not sure how significant the betting sights are, but Trump has been soaring on Polymarket all day. He’s up 8 points now on Harris, at the moment.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/06/campaign-estimates-more-than-105000-people-attended-trumps-return-rally-butler-pennsylvania/
“Former President Donald Trump’s campaign estimates more than 105,000 people attended Trump’s return rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday.”
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Did democracy institute (patrick basham) jump the shark (with Rasmussen).
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Any count of yesterday’s Wi rally?
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This poll had Harris +7 in their last poll.
NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 49.9% (+3.5)
🔴 Trump: 46.4%
Big Village | Oct. 2-4 | N=732LV
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I doubt it was 100k but it wasn’t the 20k reported by the New York Post either.
If you transpose the crowd to what it would look in a stadium it looks to be about 40-50k.
Still impressive.
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Yesterdays Wisconsin rally looked bigger.
For Butler, i would say 100,000 appears too large and 20,000 is too small.
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Democracy Institute also has Trump up 2 in Wisconsin and up 1 in Michigan.
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Also has Trump up 4 in Pennsylvania. Someone might have already posted that.
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Keep calling Trump voters stupid…worked so well for Hillary
Morning Joe
I saw part of Donald Trump’s speech this weekend. It was remarkable, the lies. Not, not, not just on things, but on policy, he’d just make up things, and just throw it out there. And I, I, I was shocked that the audience was really that stupid, to believe the crazy lies that he was throwing out there.”
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I bet you get 100k if you add Butler and WI.
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I guess Nate Silver hasn’t seen the Deomcracy Institute polling or the surge on Polymarket.
Nate Silver: Today’s update. Strange lack of high-quality new polls, but also not seeing any real signs of change in the race.
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Bryon Glenn initially estimated over 35k. He has been at every rally. Another estimate was 70k, followed by the Breitbart one of 105k. The problem with getting accurate counts is there were so many open areas, and people kept streaming in throughout the event. As for Sunday’s WI rally, I think the attendance there was completely unexpected.
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Very interesting move by the left. I read the NY Times this morning, and have seen the following in a number of left wing publications, but it appears now that going after a candidates age is completely within reason, after years of saying Biden’s age was off limits and ageism.
The Times went after Trump today, saying he is too old to be President, and implying he has the onset of dementia, which was demonstrated by his long rambling speeches with no message.
This clearly demonstrates the double standard the media and left employ at all times. Nothing is off limits for them, but for thee…
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Wtf?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/kamala-harris-falls-apart-60-minutes-after-host/
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They did this to McCain when he was 69….
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Take it with a grain of salt. I bet Gateway Pundit’s definition of “falling apart” is going to be different from most people’s…..
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I have a theory on why Gateway Pundit gets so many “hits” especially considering they are conspiracy theory garbage site. But “hits” are money
They post stuff like “Kamala fell apart” or “Zelensky owns 15 yachts” so all the idiots that read the headline will click the link to the story.
It might be complete BS, usually is, but too late, you are already there and you just contributed to the next fake news story.
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https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/07/as-north-carolina-flood-victims-begged-for-help-mayorkas-went-boutique-shopping-in-georgetown-report/
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Trump plus 5 in rasmussen
10/6
if you average the last 4 poles, it is trump plus 4. Close to Bahshams
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LOL. Only could Jason think figuring out that Albert Hodges, OAHodges@gmail.com and Albertus Magnus were the same person was solving some mystery. You act like you figured out what happened to Jimmy Hoffa, although it was never a secret, a trick, or anything sneaky.
I just register to comment as required by the system rather than pout for months and then, when it was apparent no one cared, come up with some hybrid screenname and act like i won something.
Jason, one thing about Hedgehog Reports. You are still the biggest crybaby on this site.
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Whoops, Ras plus 3 nationally.
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Poor Albert.
Dumber than rocks.
I made a joke, he fell for it, and now instead of moving on he writes a long post just digging a bigger hole and making an ass of himself.
Pathetic.
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“I won’t tell.”
That should have been the hint that I was joking.
But when you are as stupid as Albertus Dumbassus, I guess you don’t get hints.
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u act like you figured out what happened to Jimmy Hoffa, although it was never a secret, a trick, or anything sneaky.”
Don’t worry, I am sure nobody here thinks you are smart enough to ever fool anybody.
Now GFY.
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Jason, Why do you feel the need to get into people’s faces over posts you don’t like or simply want to mock? You’re not an a**hole, but just a common variety bully.
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“you are still the biggest crybaby on this site”
Oh well, it is not such a big site.
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Why do you feel the need to get into people’s faces over posts you don’t like or simply want to mock?”
Hmmmm.. isn’t that what you doing?
“Albert Hodges changed his name to oahodges so he can post here incognito.
I won’t tell.”
It was a joke. Anyone offended by this is an idiot.
Of course, you ARE and idiot.
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You’re not an a**hole, but just a common variety bully.”
I am not an A-hole?
Now that hurts.
Bitter, gimme some points!
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There must not be any good news for her hero Putin so Janzam will pass the time attacking my joke post.
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Et tu, Philadelphia Inquirer?
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/inq2/philadelphia-working-class-voters-republican-20241001.html
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“The share of Americans hearing anything at all about Harris has dropped each week since her presidential debate with former President Donald Trump in early September, and during that same time, the tone Americans use in describing what they’ve heard about her has grown more negative, reaching the lowest point of her campaign in the latest results. Looking at what people say they have heard, read or seen about Harris, “lie” has emerged as a persistent top word that some Americans associate with her. In the latest data, it was the fourth-most mentioned word after “border,” “polls” and “campaign.” It ranked sixth in the previous week’s data and second the week of the ABC News presidential debate, after ranking no higher than 12th in earlier rounds of the survey and no higher than 20th prior to the Democratic convention in August.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/06/politics/breakthrough-polling-project-harris-lie/index.html
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“Tech billionaire Elon Musk will ramp up his personal efforts to elect Donald Trump in the remaining weeks of the election — including making visits to Pennsylvania to campaign for the former president.
Musk intends to appear in the swing state in the four weeks leading up to Nov. 5, according to a person who has spoken with his team and was granted anonymity to speak freely because they weren’t authorized to do so. He is expected to make the stops with the backing of America PAC, a pro-Trump super PAC he formed. He may make other appearances in the state independent of his super PAC — as he did on Sunday evening, when he showed up to the Pittsburgh Steelers game wearing a MAGA hat and was greeted by Steelers owner Art Rooney II, among others.”
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The Putin toadies and sycophants will like this.
How to get the Biden administration to get money to NC.
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Trump rally this Saturday in Coachella, ca.
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Thoughts on a California rally less than a month before the election? I assume it’s for down ballot races, but if the election is close, wouldn’t time be better spent in a swing State?
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Scooter, where in CA? If out in the desert, it’s closer to NV and AZ.
But aside from a few House races, not much else to help out with in SoCal.
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Coachella, CA? I don’t remember too many rallies here in CA, other than two in the 2016 race. Lots of concerts in Coachella, so it must be a large space.
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As a Founding A-hole I can certify that Jason is an A-hole.
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Scooter is on target about helping some close and vital CA house races.
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As a Founding A-hole I can certify that Jason is an A-hole.”
Certifications are nice.
Points are nicer and will soften the butt hurt.
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Scooter is on target”
Scooter will become insufferable if these laudatory comment don’t stop.
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No one wants to deal with an insufferable A-hole.
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Also somewhat close to phoenix and Las Vegas. 5-7 hours to Vegas and phoenix.
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I have to admit that despite being thick skinned, the denial of my a-holiness was traumatic.
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I am sure many undecided voters will drive 7 hours to the rally.
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I heard that the rally is in a district that went D+15 in 2022. I’m just trying to figure out what the reasoning is.
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”where in CA? If out in the desert, it’s closer to NV and AZ.”
Coachella is in Riverside County in the southern desert of S CA. It has a large Spanish population.
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“Scooter is on target”
Scooter will become insufferable if these laudatory comment don’t stop.”
I told you that I won the HHR favorite A-hole election. Why do you seem so surprised that I am being lavished with praise? GFY !!!!
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I know a little about Coachella Valley….just a half an hour south on the I-10 from Palm Springs and next to Indio (peppers, tomatos and of course dates)…. almost 100% Hispanic with about 40% being born outside the US.
Don’t know what to make of this move-if true.
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I am prescient…
“No one wants to deal with an insufferable A-hole.”
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I told you that I won the HHR favorite A-hole election”
Not surprising since you cast 98% of the votes.
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peppers, tomatos and of course dates”
ssq wants to know why it is such a good place for dating.
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I saw where Trump is +5 in Ras daily tracking. Have a +7 followed by +5. If Trump has a couple more good days, he’s gonna most likely jump back up to at least +3 in the 5 day average.
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Damn you DW !!!!
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Oooooops, sorry DW !!! I assume you were one of the Hedgehoggers that cast a vote for me in the A-hole election. I guess I should be a little more polite to my constituents.
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New Thread
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wow!! 13Harris up 11 in Virginia or 2 in Virginia depending on who you believe
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