According to Trafalgar Group, Winthrop University, Cygnal, and McLaughlin
 | MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 46.9 |
| Harris | 44.7 |
| U.S. Senate | |
| Rogers | 47.0 |
| Slotkin | 47.4 |
 | SOUTH CAROLINA |
| Trump | 52 |
| Harris | 42 |
 | IOWA |
| Trump | 51.3 |
| Harris | 44.6 |
 | FLORIDA |
| Trump | 51 |
| Harris | 46 |
| U.S. Senate | |
| Scott | 51 |
| Mucarsel-Powell | 44 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
130 responses to “Trump up 2 in Michigan, 10 in South Carolina, 7 in Iowa, 5 in Florida”
Suck it A-hole
LikeLike
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed legislation banning local governments from requiring voters to present an ID at the ballot box in order to cast a vote – a move which sparked backlash from Elon Musk, who branded Newsom as “The Joker.”
LikeLike
Is anything about this guy not BS?
Coach Walz? You do realize he was never the head coach of the varsity football team right? He was the head coach for the JV team for like 2 weeks before his DUI, and was an assistant coach His entire career and history is a lie”
LikeLike
On the one hand, Trafalgar in MI seems rosy. On the other, it lines up with Slotkin’s comments in her Zoom call that were leaked.
IA is a little concerning because they show no movement from 2020. Perhaps it’s just noise right now.
SC is Bobby polarized in racial lines, so no Bush 2004 margin is in the cards. Trump should still take it by ten or so.
FL seems too close given the registration trends and improvement in Hispanic numbers. Gun to my head, it will be closer to 10 than it is to 5.
LikeLike
Baris: Quemalas electoral path is narrowing.
LikeLike
Good Lord! How does “very polarized” become “Bobby polarized?” This is getting ridiculous.🤬
LikeLike
Be careful. AI will cancel you.
LikeLike
The assault story seems to have some legs. And the witnesses are reportedly attorneys. But i guess unless “Jane” is willing to tell the story it is all hearsay at the moment.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/02/us-news/doug-emhoff-accused-of-forcefully-slapping-nyc-girlfriend-for-flirting-with-other-man-at-ritzy-gala-in-2012-report/
LikeLike
Didn’t Hillary recently talk about some story that would “pervert” Kamala in some way? I remember her using that specific word, seemed an odd choice at the time.
LikeLike
Trump is looking strong now in AZ (Hispanic gains) and GA by enough in which fraud won’t be a factor. This makes Trumps path much more viable.
LikeLike
Would it matter if the candidate for “first man” was a scumbag who slaps his girlfriend around in public and bangs the nanny during his marriage ?
Probably not if you are a Dem.
LikeLike
I doubt that is the story because Hillary wouldn’t care about that. Her husband was getting BJ’s in the Oval Office from an intern and it didn’t matter to her.
LikeLike
Vance was impressive for sure as a debater. He did a better job expounding on policies than Trump. Net positive for anyone still open to voting Trump that watched.
LikeLike
GA and AZ is not enough. GA, AZ and NV is not enough. Trump needs a blue wall state. PA, WI or MI.
LikeLike
Kensington is in Bad Philadelphia according to Bitter, so no worries.
“A Philadelphia man acted in self-defense when he shot a 16-year-old who attempted to rob him using a fake gun, according to police. The incident occurred just after 11 p.m. Sunday in the city’s Kensington neighborhood, as reported by 6abc in Philadelphia.
The 16-year-old suspect, along with an accomplice, approached the 21-year-old man on the street and attempted to rob him by flashing what appeared to be a firearm. Unbeknownst to the teens, the victim was armed with a real 9 mm pistol and was also licensed to carry. In response to the threat, the man drew and fired his weapon, wounding the suspect in the leg as he turned to flee.
Philadelphia police say the shooting, which was caught on surveillance video, was a clear case of self-defense.”
LikeLike
So far if you google the Emhoff story, you can only find it on the NY Post, the Hindustan Times and the Herald Sun (Australia).
To be fair, if it was JD Vance the MSM would keep it quiet too.
LikeLike
lol. Of course they would
LikeLike
The Universe according to MSNBC
Nicole Wallace: Shame on JD Vance for ‘mansplaining’ to the moderators.
Rachel Maddow: Tim Walz won the debate and he only had one bad moment.
Joe Scarborough: Tim Walz would be a great neighbor.
Jen Psaki: Tim Walz is one of the best communicators in the entire Democratic party.
LikeLike
I don’t think Tina ever reads my posts. She posts a “Boom” Trafalgar poll like 5 posts after I already posted it. You bastards are always trying to steal my thunder.
LikeLike
Not good news for Trump in Wisconsin according to Marquette.
WISCONSIN poll
🔵 Harris: 52% (+4) [=]
🔴 Trump: 48% [=]
[+/- from Sept. 5]
Marquette | Sept. 18-16 | N=798LV
LikeLike
Polymarket now tied
Trump: 50%
Harris: 50%
LikeLike
That pole appears dated.
LikeLike
That Marquette poll is almost half a month old though.
LikeLike
Thee are several more current wi poles.
LikeLike
National polls released today have not been good for Trump.
National poll: @SusquehannaPR
🟦 Kamala Harris: 49%
🟥 Donald Trump: 44% 66 (2.3/3.0) | 9/23-10/1 | 1,001 LV | ±3.2
LikeLike
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1841487589192126718/photo/1
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yep, the National polls suck, and they have been sucking for awhile. We better hope Kamala is not really up by 5 nationally, because she will win the GE if that is true.
LikeLike
Like I said, are we closer to Gallups R+3 National environment, or D+4-6 as a lot of these pollsters are using? Guess we won’t know until Nov 5.
LikeLike
“Nicole Wallace: Shame on JD Vance for ‘mansplaining’ to the moderators.”
That’s right up there with “Shame on Israel for not just slitting their own throats and giving away their country”
LikeLike
4 years ago right now Marquette had it +5 for Biden.
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
#NEW NATIONAL poll, among Arab-American voters Trump: 42% (+1) Harris: 41% Biden, 2020: 59% Zogby | Sept. 9-20 | N=500
Last
LikeLike
So, Trump doing better with
WWC
Hispanics
Blacks
Catholics
Jews
and now Arabs
But supposedly losing the election.
I understand that it depends on the location of these voters, but it just seems odd that Trump would be doing better with all these, and lose the election.
LikeLike
Scooter maybe also add:
Registration changes.
Early voting.
LikeLike
I don’t think drat plus 5 or 6 are reasonable given the state races/battleground. I also note that some of these state poles appear dated or in the national pole, it was over 8 days (if I read it right).
LikeLike
If Kamala is really up 5-6 points nationally, then the lion’s share of swing state polls are wrong. Someone is off by a lot.
LikeLike
Not sure what “Arab” Americans are. Not all Muslims are Arabs in fact only about 15% are Arabs. Iranians and Turks are not Arabs.
LikeLike
This election has been so strange. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an election where………
A Candidate holds substantial leads on the three issues that voters say are their top concerns.
same Candidate consistently shows improvement amongst almost every demographic, according to polling numbers
yet that same Candidate finds themselves 5-6 points behind in some National polling.
Doesn’t make sense to me. But again, I’m just a simple A-hole !!
LikeLiked by 1 person
A huge lead in CA, IL, NY, NJ, etc can affect the national poll. These 4 states have 80 million people or about 25% of the entire population.
However, we have seen diminishing leads in NY and NJ for Harris, so that is actually not a good sign for the national poll.
LikeLike
Uh oh.
Looks like Walz is losing this demographic…
School Shooters Distance Themselves From Tim Walz
Babylon Bee 2:40 PM | October 02, 2024
After Minnesota Governor and U.S. Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz claimed he was friends with them in Tuesday night’s debate, school shooters across the nation were quick to distance themselves from “that total weirdo.” …
“Yeah, we weren’t, like, friends or anything,” said Vance Walberry, who attempted a school shooting in Minnesota in 1982 but was tackled by the high school quarterback. “He was kinda strange. Kept lurking around the boys’ bathroom asking if anyone needed a tampon.” Walberry shook his head. “We don’t want anything to do with a freak like that.”
LikeLike
Walz clarifies his statement:
“Walz Clarifies That He Meant The ‘Tiananmen Square Chinese Buffet’ In Omaha, Nebraska”
LikeLike
JD VANCE: I HAVE TO SAY, I FEEL BAD FOR GOV WALZ. I FEEL BAD BC HE HAS TO DEFEND KAMALA HARRIS
LikeLike
Funny
https://x.com/HughAkston0/status/1841515957711212553/photo/1
LikeLike
“There are more than 200,000 Arab Americans in Michigan and close to 100,000 Arab Americans in Georgia.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-leads-harris-among-arab-180000355.html
LikeLike
The article does not says how many of them are voting age and registered.
LikeLike
There must have been another debate between Vance and Walz.
In that one, Walz won hands down.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/politico-snap-poll-division-debate-00182131
LikeLike
LikeLike
So, 3 day ras average =t plus 2
LikeLike
The “Arab-american” is misleading.
There are over 200k Muslims in MI and over 100k Muslims in Georgia, but they are not all Arabs.
For example the Somali population is not Arab, Ilhan Omar is not an Arab. There are 65k Somalis in MN who are Muslim, but not Arab..
LikeLike
Trump now has the RCP average betting lead…49.4-49.3
LikeLike
VIRGINIA Poll:
@VCUnews
🟦 Harris: 47% (-2)
🟥 Trump: 37% (+1)
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Other: 1% 72 (2.1/3.0) | 9/16-25 | 762 RV
Harris off two and Trump up 1 compared to their prior poll. But that’s a lot of undecided this close to the election, and why registered voters instead of likely? I suspect the lion’s share the undecided are Trump voters.
LikeLike
Isn’t that Va pole somewhat dated too. Thought there were two. Ore recently ones.
LikeLike
More recent ones*
LikeLike
Here are my thoughts on the apparent disparity between national polling and the state polling. First, Morning Consult is consistent. They are hard left and their national polling matches their state polling, both giving Obamala a 5 to 6 point national pop vote win, and over 300 EVs, in state polling. Not are far left is the national polling and state polling of Redfield and Wilton, and these numbers seem consistent internally with each other.
Several other pollsters show Obamala up 4 or more, but several show a closer national race, or even a Trump lead like Quinnipiac.
But looking at the battleground state polling, there are simply way too many polls, from normally leftist pollsters showing good news for Trump for the half-dozen or so national polls at Harris +4, +5, or +6 to be true.
AZ: Suffolk, Trump +6, Siena/NY TImes, Trump +5
GA: Quinnipiac, Trump +6, Siena/NY Times, Trump +3, ATL Jrnl Const, Trump +3
NC: Quinnipiac, Trump +2, Wash Post, Trump +2, East Carolina U, Trump +2
WI: Emerson, Trump +2
PA: Many of these polls show a tie or Trump up 1 to 2.
Several polls of NV and MI from left orgs are close.
Then non-battlegrounds, NY average is Harris only +12.7. In California she’s off 5 from Biden 2020 numbers. And she certainly isn’t cutting closer margins in Florida, Ohio, Texas or other populous states.
In short, there are MANY individual data points, dozens of state polls, that are not compatible with these Harris +7, Harris +6, Harris +5, or Harris +4 national polls.
When we get into Harris +3 national, then its getting closer to the margin of error range that could account for the many state polls.
LikeLike
Here is a North Dakota poll I added to the history:
Sept. 28-30
500 LV
WPA Intelligence
North Dakota News Cooperative
Harris 32%
Trump 59%
LikeLike
Overall, early voting in Virginia is off the 2020 pace, which makes sense considering COVID:
2020: 462,198
2024: 346,477
But the GOP leaning congressional districts hold a 26,000 vote cast lead over the Democrat leaning congressional districts.
LikeLike
Trump is +15 with Hispanics in that Virginia Poll. Don’t think there is a big Hispanic population in Virginia, but thought that was interesting.
LikeLike
Cases is winning the ad battle 4-1 over McCormick in my area. Almost all about abortion.
LikeLike
obviously the suburban Philly moms care about being able to abort children. Let’s hope the rest of PA cares more about other issues than abortion, like the rest of the country
LikeLike
Vic – I know you hate the Philadelphia region and especially the women. I am just reporting what I see.
LikeLike
bitter. I like Philly. I’m just razzing you. Though I can’t understand why surburban east coast moms are so concerned with abirtion
LikeLike
GOP-e silent. Party of trash
Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec
Kinzinger, Malcom Nance, Vindman, NAFO warmongers all silent on Helene recovery. Curious!
·
33.7K Views
LikeLike
Ras
Trump plus 2 nationally.
LikeLike
tina. None of those are GOP
LikeLike
I don’t see the Rs questioning the recovery. Where are Biden’s Beotch and goober?
LikeLike
BREAKING: A federal judge just blocked the implementation of Gavin Newsom’s AI ” election misinformation” law, which targeted Elon Musk’s Grok, signaling the law is likely UNCONSTITUTIONAL
LikeLike
Most women I know, married and single, are pro-choice. So is Jason.
LikeLike
Pardon me!
Joy Reid factchecked Vance: “there aren’t 25 million illegals, there are more like 15 million”
LikeLike
I think abortions should be legal up to 20 weeks. I could live with 15 weeks as national compromise.
The problem with wanting all or nothing is you will often. get nothing. The abortion deadenders will eventually end up with nothing just like the immigration deadenders.
LikeLike
I think it needs to be left to the states. Vance explanation last night that a universal law for a nation of 320M people that spans 3000 miles does not work. Not everyone believes in abortion for convenience, I don’t…I do believe in exceptions for rape and physical health of the mother. I suspect one day we will settle on somewhere between 12-15 weeks, pissing both sides off, but then get it off the table
LikeLike
If the morons had just stayed outside the Capital and Roe was not overturned, what would Dems be running on?
LikeLiked by 1 person
what would Dems be running on?
Trump the racist felon and sexual assaulter
LikeLike
Zogby Arab support for trump is 46% to 42% for quemala. I am not sure why it’s higher, but this would likely impact in Michigan
LikeLike
what would Dems be running on?”
Democracy and abortion.
j6 and Roe vs. Wade are just props..
LikeLike
Evidently Vance got a large turnout in Michigan today.
LikeLike
It’s like Project 2025.
Dems don’t need anything real to run against, they just make something up.
LikeLike
“So, Trump doing better with
WWC
Hispanics
Blacks
Catholics
Jews
and now Arabs
But supposedly losing the election.”
***********************************
Or you could say that Kamelia Kamala is doing worse with those groups.
I doubt it is because Trump is so lovable.
_______________________________
Few Americans like a person who continually spews derogatory terms and put downs at people who have differing views, believes they are always right and never made a mistake and could not improve in any category of thought or behavior.
LikeLike
But isn’t demented a lovable grandpa?
LikeLike
The zogby number is among likely voters.
LikeLike
BREAKING: Trump has made up a 24-point deficit with Michigan voters aged 18-29 since 2020, according to recent NYT/Siena polling.
2020
Biden – 61%
Trump – 37%
2024
Harris – 45%
Trump -45%
LikeLike
New NYT / Siena Poll
MICHIGAN
Registered Voters
1 v 1
🔴 Trump 47% (+2)
🔵 Harris 45%
Full
🔴 Trump 46% (+3)
🔵 Harris 43%
🟢 Stein 2%
🟣 Oliver 2%
Likely Voters
LikeLike
scooter, you forgot the BOOM
LikeLike
Scooter I saw this pole. Thanks. I guess that thr “internal poles” from lady scrotum that is running for senate are true.
LikeLike
Don’t worrry. Give it about 5 more posts and Tina will drop the same poll with a “Boom” included.
LikeLike
Wow that IS a boom
LikeLike
Tina, you failed. I was counting on you.
LikeLike
Lady Scrotum said that quemalas numbers were upside down in Michigan.
LikeLike
Scooter I was opening a bottle of limoncello.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I doubt it is because Trump is so lovable.”
I will take “Things nobody ever said” for $2000, please..
LikeLike
It’s 7:30 in California
Second bottle?
LikeLike
Mets bullpen couldn’t do it. They need to score 8 runs to be safe. 3 tonight not enough to hold it
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLiked by 1 person
LikeLiked by 1 person
Not even worth asking to explain that nickname.
LikeLike
During the debate Tim Kain could not name one store that is price gaging.
LikeLike
Is there a link for the NY Times/Siena Michigan poll?
LikeLike
Anyone that has the first name “Hung”, should automatically win their Senate race. I’m jealous !!
LikeLiked by 1 person
John, I don’t have the link. I copied it from a post on X, but not seeing it many other places. John King ran a segment on CNN though,pointing out the 18-29 age groups numbers that I also posted above.
LikeLike
Here’s the CNN segment.
LikeLike
Ooops https://x.com/chuckcallesto/status/1841651650533974236?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
LikeLike
I think the Mets bull pen has been their biggest problem for more than 10 years. Not sure why they don’t know that.
LikeLike
It must be October in an election year. It’s only the second day of the month and already we have had in the past 48 or so hours….
Dock workers strike
Jack Smith’s crusade
and now Melania Trump’s just breaking upcoming memoir according to The Guardian that will champion reproductive rights for women
then you Kamala Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff, reportedly ‘forcefully slapped” an ex girl friend while drunk about a dozen years ago that several of the victims friends have just brought forward to the media
I’m already tire of this. We can’t get to the election fast enough.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hurricane Helene victims get $750 dollars, illegals get $5000 debit cards.
LikeLike
bitter. I have no idea why they put the soft tossing Maton in for the 8th inning. They literally had to get theee outs to get to Diaz BUT they also left three or four runners at 3rd with less than two outs which would have changed the outcome.
we’ll see what happens tomorrow. It would be fun to see a Phillies Mets series
LikeLike
Scooter. Most of the hurricane victims will vote R. Whereas the illegals will vote D, hence the discrepency
LikeLike
and the grifter gets?
LikeLike
oh lord. Lol. He gets a second bottle of limoncello 😉
LikeLike
Tim Mustang: “The insanity of this story is off the charts.
Kamala Harris spent over $1 BILLION in FEMA money on housing for illegal aliens in the last 2 years under a new program she began in 2023.
Now DHS says they don’t have enough cash for all of hurricane season.
LikeLike
Sorry, should be Tim Murtaugh
LikeLike
seriously???
LikeLike
funny
LikeLiked by 1 person
question. Why was the media obsessed with GWB dui but no one ever mentions Walz’s?
LikeLike
Wes was also obsessed with it even though he voted for GWB twice.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Definitiely, not a 6 point national lead.
LikeLike
Trump will win with those numbers.
-Old Inca Proverb
LikeLike
Tina
October 2, 2024 at 11:21 pm
and the grifter gets?”
As much as it takes to defeat Tina’s mentor and icon ‘Pooty Poot”
LikeLike
Rmg pole Florida. Trump plus 2.
lol lol lol
LikeLike
Florida R registration lead is now over 1,050,000. It won’t be plus 2.
LikeLike
Never heard of Highground
ARIZONA poll
🔵 Harris: 47.6% (+2.2)
🔴 Trump: 45.4%
🟡 Don’t know/refused: 5.4%
🟠 Other: 1.6%
HighGround | Sept. 26-29 | N=500LV
LikeLike
Tom Bevan: New VCU poll in Virginia: Harris +6. Last poll in August was Harris +10. Biden won VA by 10 in 2020.
LikeLike
LikeLike
I wonder if the grifter will donate to hurricane relief.
LikeLike
Do the storm victims need artillery shells or anti-aircraft missiles?
LikeLike
Ask fema.
LikeLike
Maybe Putin could take a day off from killing Ukrainians and donate to storm relief.
LikeLike
LikeLike
DW what is the Voter Registration Index Model?
What does it mean?
LikeLike
new thread in 25 minutes or so
LikeLike
Harry, simply the shift in voter registration per county since 2020.
LikeLike
New Thread
LikeLike