According to Patriot Polling 9/27-9/29; 816 RV and Embold Research 9/16-9/20; 876 LV
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 49 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 48 |
| Casey | 51 |
 | RHODE ISLAND |
| Trump | 38 |
| Harris | 52 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
112 responses to “Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania and Harris up only 14 in Rhode Island”
Interesting analysis of the Intel poll for PA.
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/09/30/2020s-most-accurate-pollster-says-pennsylvania-is-trumps-to-lose-but-n4932942
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and the fact that Ukraine had a hand in impeaching Trump,”
Not true, actually.
Ukraine actually had zero input, Zelensky refused to throw Trump under the bus, and Trump has recognized that repeatedly. He could have stated he felt pressured by Trump but he said he wasn’t pressured and there was no quid pro quo.
The only people with a “hand in impeaching Trump” were the Dems and the hacks in the NSA.
jasonyupanqui47
September 30, 2024 at 12:19 pm
In the meantime we have a transformational election ahead of us. I don’t get to choose what we talk about”
You could have stopped there.
Foreign policy and how we deal with out geopolitical alliances and foes should be an integral part of any “transformational election”.
jasonyupanqui47
September 30, 2024 at 12:20 pm
Still waiting for Walt to tell us that since he thinks no minds are changed on Ukraine, what topics HE changed his mind because of HHR posts.
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Dang it, Jason !!!!
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Harry Enten:
”Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He’s on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He’s up 31 points among trade school grads.
He’s doing 17 pts better among nonwhite non-college voters than in 2020.”
https://x.com/forecasterenten/status/1840775213274763665?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Marc Thiessen:
“Biden said he spent two whole hours on the phone managing the Hurricane Helens storm response yesterday. Can you imagine if Bush had said that after Katrina?
Bush was evicerated for not going to New Orleans immediately after Katrina but Biden and Harris go in campaigning as usual here and … crickets.”
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CNBC: What are you hearing will happen if dockworkers strike and it goes longer than a week?
Harris-Biden Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo: “I have not been very focused on that.”
What is she focused on? That is her job.
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Breaking News: All of the shelters in Asheville are at capacity.
Fox News Reporters on the ground in Asheville say that FEMA isn’t on the ground helping the shelters and several have run out of water.
The Fox Reporter is trying to find answers on why FEMA isn’t there to assist.
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Sorry Scooter, the fastest A-hole gets the worm.
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Don’t worry, the MSM will say Biden’s response to the disaster was the best in history.
Bet on it.
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No Frist for you.
On Ukraine – Ive said my say, and now will move on.
How is it possible that the NYT can eviscerate Trump as they did, but not condemn the way this disaster is being handled by the disfunctional white house, and Komrade Kamala. Biden is mentally MIA so I don’t think you can blame him anymore.
but..yet it happens. It won’t be long before they are blaming Trump for it.
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”Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He’s on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He’s up 31 points among trade school grads.”
So the question is why is he still losing 15/20 of the latest national polls and only ahead in 2/20?
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On Ukraine – Ive said my say, and now will move on.”
Zzzzz…
You have been “moving on” from Ukraine for weeks.
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RealDonaldTrump
We are now heading to Valdosta, Georgia, in order to pay my respects and bring lots of relief material, including fuel, equipment, water, and other things, to the State. Many politicians and Law Enforcement will be there. We’ll be saying hello to Franklin Graham, Burt Jones, Tyler Harper, Mike Collins, Austin Scott, Russ Goodman, Sam Watson, and the Mayor of Valdosta Scott James. They are working very hard. I was also going to stop into North Carolina, which has really been hit hard. I have a lot of supplies ready for them, but access and communication is now restricted, and we want to make sure that Local Emergency Management is able to focus on helping the people most affected, and not being concerned with me. I’ll be there shortly, but don’t like the reports that I’m getting about the Federal Government, and the Democrat Governor of the State, going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas. MAGA!
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“So the question is why is he still losing 15/20 of the latest national polls and only ahead in 2/20?”
Good question. However, if pollsters are missing the low propensity voters again like 2016, & 2020, that would explain it. I won’t be convinced that pollsters have fixed this problem until I see evidence of it.
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Vic, the problem is you think we are all on the same side here, minus the trolls.
We are not. Walt is more conservative than I am and he is not voting for Trump. His reasons are very different from mine.
You might say the divisions we see here are the reasons Rs keep losing elections.
And I won’t disagree. It is true.
I remember a time when I was Mr. Republican, I worked for the party despite any reservations with the candidates. I spent a lot of time, effort and money doing that for many years.
But at the time, I believed that whatever the quality of the candidates and my disagreements over particular policies, the Party represented a vision, a goal, an agenda I could support. At the time I believed the party stood for free enterprise, free trade, free markets, personal responsibility, fiscal responsibility, limited government, and a willingness to act as a force of freedom around the world and especially to act in our interests wherever they were.
Does the current R party stand for ANY of these principles. Does Trump? Does Vance?
You will say no if you answer honestly.
Those of us are voting for Trump are doing so mostly because we think the other candidate is worse, not for any idealism or purpose or principle.
And THAT is why Rs are not 20 points ahead of a ditzy airhead socialist like Kamala.
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Barring an assassination, either Trump or Harris will be sworn in. Those are the choices. Not the choices I had wanted, but I don’t always get what I want.
Of the two, Trump is clearly the better choice. It’s not even close.
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Virginia early voting is over 40,000 behind the 2020 numbers, and its a lot redder, based on congressional district.
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Those of us are voting for Trump are doing so mostly because we think the other candidate is worse, not for any idealism or purpose or principle.
And THAT is why Rs are not 20 points ahead of a ditzy airhead socialist like Kamala.”
I see DW agrees with me:
“Barring an assassination, either Trump or Harris will be sworn in. Those are the choices. Not the choices I had wanted, but I don’t always get what I want.”
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Wtf is fema doing assisting with illegals?
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Those are the choices.”
That is not true, of course. Not voting for either one is certainly a choice.
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If this was a R administration, the MSM would be parked in every flooded area showing how aid was not arriving and interviewing people about the lack of water, food, shelter, etc.
Since both Cooper and Biden are Dems, they get a free pass.
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This is now FEMA:
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1840637517172768777/photo/1
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Not voting for either is essentially support for the worst of the two options.
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BREAKING: Trump asked if he has reached out to Biden about federal relief efforts:
“No I haven’t reached out to him. I think he’s sleeping right now, actually.”
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Rds is not having issues leading. Granted, I don’t think,they were hit as hard, but still hard enough
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“Giving an update from Steinhatchee, Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis was asked about communication from Joe Biden. Governor DeSantis pointed out that he has not spoken with Biden; however, he would recommend that all available FEMA and Federal recovery efforts be directed immediately to the Western North Carolina region.
DeSantis accurately describes and contrasts the unique challenges faced by people living in the WNC area.”
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Jason. I have to agree with a lot of your claims here. We are not the same R party we were, which means its far and away from my core principles. Reagan always preached about a big tent, but unfortunately, when the lunatic Ron Paul wing was not given domain over the party (to implement their cowardly, racist, anarchist principles) they vowed to destroy the party from within through chaos. Enter the populists, who share some core conservative principles, but have also adopted a number of Paul policies (isolationism. nativism, no foreign policy, tariffs, etc).
Now I realize we should want everyone in the party, but if you remember, Reagan preached about being 80% with me (or something similar), but the populist demand 100% fidelity to their populist policies, or else you are the enemy. I think its this millenial, Gen Z mentality of never being told “no” growing up, and they are special and everyone has to adopt to what THEY WANT, not vice versa. I think the jackass Getz (sic) is a perfect example. How do a couple of lunatic selfish idiotic morons cause the downfall of the speaker of the House. It’s insane. A guy like that shouldn’t be in congress, he should be taken behind the shed and taught a few lessons.
The long and short of it is that, it is not the R party we once knew, and now only marginally better than the Dems…but still better than the Dems.
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Early estimates of the damage in NC are upwards to $100 billion dollars. Somehow, though, the needs of NC seem to be secondary to the needs of a foreign entity, when it comes to attentively handing out money.
I hope those living in NC realize how inept and tone-deaf the Harris/Biden government really is in responding to their grief.
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OMG OMG OMG OMG – North Carolina, and the aid they need HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH AID TO UKRAINE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ZERO
ZILCH
stop being so myopic
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The long and short of it is that, it is not the R party we once knew, and now only marginally better than the Dems”
Yep, and Trump is actually the symptom of that, not the cause.
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stop being so myopic”
She is not myopic.
She is just beholden to Putin’s propaganda machine.
Sick.
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RIP Dikembe Mutombo, legendary shot blocker
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Please tell me quemalas buds are plugged in.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/president-trump-speak-press-after-briefing-hurricane-helene/
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He had almost as many names as I do…
Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean Jacques Wamutombo
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Again. How many weapons does NC need. That is what Ukraine is receiving from the U.S.
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Basketballs and cereal boxes.
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Again. How many weapons does NC need.”
This is the same garbage she was trying to sell when she said the border was open because of aid to Ukraine.
A complete and total moron.
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CNN actually carried Trump’s presser in GA.
Pigs might fly.
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Trump’s presser was subdued and dignified and he made a point of leaving politics out of it.
Pigs might fly.
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Walz grabs his balz…
https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1840543087598211166?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1840543087598211166%7Ctwgr%5E23c4edac17c483b8957ac3de6a78f76995adceb7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fsamj%2F2024%2F09%2F30%2Ftim-walz-weird-crotch-yuck-n2401574
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Apparently, a spontaneous street rally in Ga.
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If Trump did that it would be on every network within 5 seconds.
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https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113227495028998124
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That was not AI btw.
Walz, after giving the finger to a college student, grabs his balls too.
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Vic, neither the dem or Republican Party are the same as they used to be. The dem party has made radical left turns, becoming the party of big corporations, big pharma, the rich (having 70% of the wealth) and those supporting war. The new Republican Party represents the working/middle classes (having only 30% of the wealth), has more minority support and a bigger tent for dissenting opinions to be heard rather than censored, like the Dems want to do.
Also, as these are different times, with a wider assortment of demographics to appeal to, no one can speak for how Reagan would deal with our problems. In fact essays have been written comparing Reagan’s open-mindedness, politically incorrect ways, sneering response from the press, and blunt but more polite humor to Trump’s more coarsened one. Furthermore, I see no correlation with the new populist-centered Republican Party anti war stances to earlier efforts made to impeach Trump over Ukraine. People, in general, just want to remedy our own mushrooming problems, rather than usurping our strength and assets to questionable conflicts seen as secondary to our own ignored border national security vulnerabilities. After all, the biggest issues voiced by voters mainly deal with the economy, inflation and illegal immigration problems. Ukraine is simply on the mind of one-issue fanatics like Jason.
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“Kamala mulls keeping Biden’s Cabinet if Dems lose Senate”
I would probably hazard that her cabinet would be even worse than Biden’s.
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one-issue fanatics like Jason”
Hilarious coming from a Putin Fanatic who only regurgitates one sided propaganda.
And of course, “single issue” is the farthest from the truth you can get.
I defend a variety of views here including many domestic ones. I post regularly on fiscal issues, abortion, immigration, state politics, and a whole host of subjects.
And Ukraine is not a “single issue” at all, it is one cog in a complex geopolitical situation with profound implications for our economic wellbeing and the stability of our main trading partners, including the defense of our alliances that make that possible.
The fact Janzam thinks Ukraine is a “single issue” shows how shallow and ignorant she is.
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The new Republican Party represents the working/middle classes”
Zzzz….
Of course, that is EXACTLY what I think the R party has to do to survive.
The problem is, the failed AFL-CIO agenda of the last 70 years is not going to help the working class. Neither are tariffs and stupid trade wars and economic isolationism.
Protectionism and isolationism, which the AFL-CIO conservatives think is “new”, is a failed and self defeating agenda that never worked.
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Vic, I think the fact Janzam is part of the “new Republican party” just about says it all.
I can’t think of a better example that would prove our point.
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I won’t be watching the debate but I will be here to offer valuable commentary.
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Damm, Biden devoted two whole hours to the hurricane effects and people are still criticizing him.
Just not fair.
Reporter: “On the hurricane, why weren’t you and Vice President Harris here in Washington commanding this this weekend?”
Biden (sounding defensive): “I was commanding. I was on the phone for at least two hours yesterday, and the day before as well. I command, it’s called a telephone, and all my security people.”
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That’s a total of 4 hours of nap time lost.
Ohhh, the sacrifice.
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Heads up…New Jersey and New York polling from Rasmussen to arrive today.
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Kamala will be ahead in both.
Deal with it.
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https://babylonbee.com/news/hezbollah-reaches-out-to-us-for-advice-on-how-to-govern-with-a-dead-leader
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“Kamala will be ahead in both.”
Of course. The margins will be the interesting part, and what it means for the national popular vote.
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Here is the deal. I am all in favor of the big tent, and welcoming the populists in, so we can win elections and hopefully stem this slide to a DEI socialist society BUT
I can not abide by those same populists telling Republicans how the party should be, and expecting 100% fidelity to their agenda, especially the Ron Paul adopted talking points.
Accept Republicans the way they accepted you into the party an realize YOU WILL NOT GET EVERYTHING YOU WANT.
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Are the gop-e even alive? Any comments from them on the disaster and lack of response by the gubment?
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Ahaa!!! I remember my point from the other night.
Big Pharma.
I hear Dems and the new populist RFK loving wing of the party keep referring to how bad “Big Pharma” is…how awful they are.
My question. If “Big Pharma” did not exist, what do you think the quality of life, and our life expectancy would be. What would we do without the life saving drugs created by Big Pharmacy. Who would have invented and then produced medicines we need to expand life expectancy. That help children overcome diseases that give them a chance at life?
That is not to say that they are this holy organization, but at the same time they are not the devil. So please, tell me, where would we be withouth pharma companies.
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BTW Mets just scored 6 runs in the 8th inning against the Braves. They have to get six more outs to get to the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!
Talk about insane. Now lets see if they can find a way to lose it.
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Are the gop-e even alive?”
Damm, I guess after you make Tina’s RINO list you are dead.
That is a boatload of bodies.
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“Kamala will be ahead in both.”
Of course. The margins will be the interesting part, and what it means for the national popular vote.”
Ras is teasing that those NY & NJ numbers for Trump are pretty good.
X: “NY? I think it is still too blue to flip?”
Mark Mitchell: Yeah, of course. But wait till you see the numbers.
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Trump is a billionaire crony capitalist from NY who spent decades palling around and contributing to the Dems in power.
I imagine Tina would consider him GOP-e if he was a Republican.
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Big pharma really helped with the Covid non vaccine. A conspiracy of fraudsters and gangsters
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The other day, I commented that I’d like to see a poll of New Jersey, just to see how much of a rightward shift there has been. Looks like we are about to find out.
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Ma, that NY and NJ bait worked, it caught fish in both VA and MO. And the best part, it works on deaf fish, always a plus.
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The problem with rhe gop-e, they love to war monger and love big pharma $$$. They are also strangely silent
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Without “big pharma” we wouldn’t have the drugs and technology to fight major diseases like cancer and heart disease and thousands of other diseases.
Attacks on big pharma is old leftist rhetoric and drivel the “true conservatives” have latched onto because they are too stupid to think for themselves.
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I was commanding all weekend long.
No more $ for the disaster victims.
-Demented
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I bet Tina and all the other morons who attack “big pharma” use their drugs every day.
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Quemala and company are having bad days.
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Hillary must know something !!!
The Hill- Hillary Clinton warns of October surprise that will “distort and pervert” Harris
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distort and pervert Harris. I think it involves Doltz.
He gives me vibes similar to the blob. (Hint hint former house speaker).
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“distort and pervert”
Seems to be already working on Walz
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The problem with rhe gop-e, they love to war monger and love big pharma”
Zzzzzz….
The “true conservative” idiots have gone full Paulbot
Pretty soon they will be here talking about the evil “military industrial complex”, “auditing the fed”, and “returning to the gold standard”.
It won’t be long…
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I forget, Walz was football and not wrestling coach, right? Because the latter seems to have a tendency towards the young lads…
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Vic, the Mets just couldn’t do it…six outs? They couldn’t even get 3.
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Something seems off with Doltz. I think my alternate nickname at the Hhr site for the former house speaker was pedo blob.
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To be fair, Ike was the one who warned of the “military-industrial” complex. Granted, these days, I think that the academic-research complex gobbling up billions of dollars is more of a threat, but having been on the inside of the DoD and now on the outside on the defense industry, I’ve seen the pipeline of senior officers (O5 and above) hanging up their uniforms on Friday and putting on suits the following Monday becoming de facto lobbyists. Heck, some of these guys start the lobbying when sitting before Congressional committees whilst on active duty for systems we don’t need or that are indefensible failures (the LCS program being one of the worst ever, too many Senators got in on that deal to get pork to their states so that the Fleet ended up with a class of useless vessels that we can’t even sell off to 3rd World bandits at bargain basement prices).
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Wish we had an edit function, getting tired of autocorrect screwing me over.
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Pennsylvania:
Trump +2 or better: Trafalgar, AtlasIntel, Insider Advantage, Co/Efficient
Trump +1: Patriot Polling, FoxNews, Wick, SoCal Strategies, Fabrizio Ward, Cygnal
TIE: Rasmussen, Susquehanna, RMG Research, Redfield & Wilton, Muhlenberg College, Marist, CBS/YouGov, Emerson College, CNN, Z to A Research, Cato Institute
Harris +1: Washington Post, Spry Strategies
Harris +2: Focal Data, UMASS-Lowell, ActiVote
Harris +3: Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Suffolk, Franklin and Marshall
Harris +4: MassINC polling, NY Times/Siena, Bullfinch Group
Harris +6: Morning Consult
Its interesting, because listing them this way, the 2020 scorecard of pollsters sorted best to worst for accuracy, is almost exactly the same as the sort order shown here, the polls that are best for Trump to the worst. And for those who are new this year, like Bullfinch Group, we have seen their results to be very erratic in both directions, and obviously unreliable.
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You don’t? What do you want changed?
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I believe Ras has New York
Harris: 54%
Trump: 43%
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The Mets won. Oh well. Might as well split and keep the Diamondbacks out of the playoffs.
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I don’t want to pester you or DW with edits, BL, just little flubs like “undistrial” above get on my nerves. The site is fine as it is.
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Its too bad the Francis Scott Key Bridge doesn’t go over Ashville, North Carolina, because then Biden would promise to rebuild everything.
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Bitter, the official prediction we had agreed on was that the Mets would have a good second half, come storming back into wild card contention, take a two game lead and then blow it at the end.
They came very close.
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Eleven point race in NY? Trump getting into the low 40s? That will help our vunerable House incumbents.
NY was a 23 point Biden win, NJ was 16 points. A similar swing in NJ would have it at 51-47 for Harris, though I think the House map there is too badly gerrymandered to fall.
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While I have my doubts that Trump can actually get to 47% in Jersey, if he did, that might help out Bashaw at the Senate level as I can’t see many Trump-Kim voters.
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Actually I think it’s New Jersey that’s 54-43. I think he just posted it on his YouTube channel. I’m at work so having trouble being able to watch it.
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Fixed it GF
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Screw it. I hate the Braves. Let’s go Mets go. OMG
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Thanks, DW. Like I said, I hate to pester either of you when you have more important things going on.
Scooter, if that’s NJ, it’s still a solid six point swing in Trump’s direction. These things don’t happen in a vacuum.
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Bitterlaw
September 30, 2024 at 4:24 pm
“…Let’s go Mets…”
September 30, 2024, a day which will live in infamy!
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too many Senators got in on that deal to get pork to their states”
Ron Paul was the king of earmarks, so I am skeptical the Paulbots are against pork.
“Paul, who fell short on his presidential bid last year, defended his own acceptance of $73 million in earmarks and called out John McCain on his anti-earmark crusade, telling Neil Cavuto, “That’s grandstanding.”
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GOP just took lead in Florida early voting:
https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live-data/#google_vignette
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
4m
Woah!
Just in time for the moderators to ask about it tomorrow night!
⏳
Quote
Kyle Becker
@kylenabecker
·
1h
BREAKING.🚨🚨
Whistlleblower informs @GOPoversight about U.S. intelligence uncovering verified links between the C.C.P. and Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz
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Just in time for the moderators to ask about it tomorrow night!”
Sorry, but the questions were already given to Walz and it would be unfair to change them now given the closeness of the debate.
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GOP just took lead in Florida early voting”
I made the mistake of looking at the county percentages first….waste of time considering there are only a couple thousand votes.
I guess DW’s bait worked.
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Plus we don’t want Walz replaced by someone better.
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Would Shapiro take the job now as second fiddle?
Probably, power corrupts.
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They will never ask doltz that question. They will only ask about a mean tweet sent by trump in 2012.
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No, the media won’t ask Doltz, but Vance might ask him.
New Thread.
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I might still change my mind. Diamondbacks are better than the Mets or Braves so it is probably better to be rid of them.
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Maybe only DW, Vic, and I can edit posts.
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Maybe the Mets should just have their bench players pitch the second game.
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