According to RMG Research poll of 757 LVs taken 9/18-9/20:
 | OHIO |
| Trump | 54 |
| Harris | 43 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Moreno | 48 |
| Brown | 46 |
Also new polling of PA from Muhlenberg College, 450 LV | 9/16-19:
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 48 |
| Harris | 48 |
| U.S. Senate | |
| McCormick | 43 |
| Casey | 48 |
One more in Texas from ActiVote:
 | TEXAS |
| Trump | 54 |
| Harris | 46 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
85 responses to “Moreno with lead in Ohio”
New polls from Focal Data have Harris up nearly 6 points in Wisconsin, 2 points in PA – and across nearly the entire Sun Belt. North Carolina, though, is… Trump+6. Ohio is Trump+7.
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some of these pollster names lend themselves to easy mock nicknames.
This one should be Fecal Data, just like Bullfinch group is easily renamed
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Thought so, never heard of Fecal Matter pole.
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Last poll was Harris +4
General election poll
🔵 Harris 49% (+3)
🔴 Trump 46%
YouGov (Economist) #B – 1220 LV – 9/24
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Nate Cohn keeps hedging…..
“I do think it’s worth cautioning how tenuous Harris’ EC-PV gains are – any meaningful error in MI/WI/PA would quickly restore much of Trump’s advantage. This is not a robust edge (unlike Trump ’16/20, where he still would have had a big edge even if WI, for ex, was D+5)”
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There is no universe where Trump wins Ohio by eleven points and loses the election. None.
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Just going to post the Fecal Data polling here. Baris warned of this…pollsters who try to time a momentary peak of good Harris numbers and then wait until things are trending Trump, and a few weeks later release the stale poll to make it look like Harris is holding up.
This Fecal Data polling is dated 9/3-9/16. In the information age, you can poll one day, and release the next. If you want to.
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“We have seen how [the United Nations], born to defend the rights of man, has been one of the main proponents of the systematic violation of freedom, as — for example — with the global lockdowns in the year 2020, which should be considered a crime against humanity.” -Javier Milei
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There is no universe where Trump wins Ohio by eleven points and loses the election. None.”
Well, not so sure about that.
He “lost” in 2020. He won Ohio by 8.
In 2016 he won OH by 8 and squeaked by in the EC.
You might argue the extra 3 pts in OH translate into a win in WI or MI or PA but it is not a given.
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Following 2 ( that we know about), assassination attempts, they are still using language like this. It’s clear they want him taken out.
Biden-Harris Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo: “Let’s extinguish Trump for good.”
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Amish to save Trump?
https://x.com/ScottPresler/status/1837253271477703081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1837253271477703081%7Ctwgr%5E026783f9442250caf74f6423cdba1a92e91c8a3f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fbeckynoble%2F2024%2F09%2F24%2Fscott-presler-the-man-who-may-deliver-the-2024-election-for-donald-trump-n2179711
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The search for Robbie continues.
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So fecal pole held off data? So they get can claim a false narrative that silverfish and others can then jerk to it?
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I think the big lie are the Harris plus 5 national poles.
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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1838942490185122293?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Trump plus 3 in nc
fabrizio pole
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AARP POLL of NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 50
Harris 47
Trump 48
Harris 46
Other 3
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The AARP poll is stale too…so will just post it here rather than start a new thread:
NORTH CAROLINA poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for AARP
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 50% 🟦 Harris: 47%
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Governor
🟦 Josh Stein: 52%
🟥 M. Robinson: 42%
—
Attorney General
🟦 Jackson: 47%
🟥 Bishop: 43%
—
NC Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 48%
🟦 DEM: 47%
—— 140 (1.7/3.0) | 600 LV | 9/11-17 | ±4%
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Last night the Padres clinched a playoff spot by turning a game ending triple play. Padres were winning 4-2. Dodgers had runners on first and second with no outs, with the potential winning run at the plate. Hit a ground ball to Machado at third base, and they turned a 5-4-3 triple play to end the game. WOW !!!!
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The media is absolutely trying to get Trump assassinated:
Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
25m
MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough saying:
“Trump is the biggest treat to Democracy™️ since the Civil War.”
Public Opinion:
41% of voters now think a Civil War is likely in the next 5 years.
The media is radicalizing the Left and blaming it on Trump.
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Lets put it this way. If I was a business owner in NYC, Chicago, etc……I would be boarding up for election night and the days after. The left is going to throw the biggest tantrum you’ve seen since the BLM riots.
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The RAS Trump 10 day average is in line with the Gallup +3 R ID. Trump is going to win big. Heads will explode and Woke Commie Dem cities will burn.
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Monmouth out with their PA poll, Harris plus 3, but because the election is still 11 months away, they polled registered voters instead of likely voters.
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Lotsa of people are drawing a lot of conclusions from the early voting data in Virginia. I am being more cautious, so far only 3% of the 2020 Virginia electorate has voted early.
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just going to post it here:
PENNSYLVANIA poll (definitely/probably vote for)
🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 45%
Monmouth | Sept. 19-23 | N=654RV
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That’s the best Monmouth can do for Harris?
She’s in big trouble.
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BREAKING: For the first time in over a decade, Notre Dame students prefer a Republican for president, a poll by independent campus newspaper @IrishRoverND finds.
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 48-46% among likely voters on campus, with a 3.8% margin of error.
The result is a monumental shift to Trump from four years ago, when a similar campus poll found Biden ahead here 66% to 29%.
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“Trump is going to win big”
Coming from someone with terminal TDS, this is momentous.
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The search for Robbie continues.”
Try Bogo Pogo.
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Interesting take on the election from The Telegraph…go all the way to the bottom where they have an ongoing poll…close to 114,000 so far….
Trump 52%
Harris 48%
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/0/who-win-2024-us-election-expert-predictions-next-president/
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Naw, I figure he must be dead.
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Where is the Susquehanna poll?
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Naw, I figure he must be dead.”
I Googled crop duster crashes in KY, didn’t find any.
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LMAO
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I am surprised Tgca hasn’t made it back yet.
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The Monmouth PA poll from the comparable period in 2020 was Biden +11.
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Tells you about all you need to know about where Pa is right now.
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Headline: Liberal Media Fearmongers About Trump Giving Illegal Aliens “Serial Numbers”
What in the world do people think the SSN number is?
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Scientific American used to be interesting.
Now it is political propaganda.
Sad.
“In the November election, the U.S. faces two futures. In one, the new president offers the country better prospects, relying on science, solid evidence, and the willingness to learn from experience,” the article begins. “She pushes policies that boost good jobs nationwide by embracing technology and clean energy. She supports education, public health, and reproductive rights. She treats the climate crisis as the emergency it is and seeks to mitigate its catastrophic storms, fires, and droughts.”
“In the other future, the new president endangers public health and safety and rejects evidence, preferring instead nonsensical conspiracy fantasies,” the piece continues. “He ignores the climate crisis in favor of more pollution. He requires that federal officials show personal loyalty to him rather than upholding U.S. laws. He fills positions in federal science and other agencies with unqualified ideologues. He goads people into hate and division, and he inspires extremists at state and local levels to pass laws that disrupt education and make it harder to earn a living.”
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DOD is using taxpayer money on “women’s health research”.
It’s a big deal and it’s about time.”
@FLOTUS takes the stage at #CGI2024 to announce the Department of Defense’s new $500 million plan to transform women’s health research.
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According to Jeff Clark the “October surprise” will involve Jack Smith’s last minute appeal to Judge Chutken circumventing SCOTUS’s immunity decision, having her render a redacted copy of his revised indictment to dirty up Trump right before the election.
https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=https%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fnational-security%2f2024%2f09%2f23%2ftrump-lawyers-justice-department-filing-special-counsel-report%2f&d=1520723368054&mkt=en-US&setlang=en-US&w=2G0YJgKdMXRs1UzdK1mBqrFhSLRnEQse
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Kamala’s 5 pt lead at Polymarket is gone
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1727280647550
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Harry Entenen suggested that demented is a drag on Quemala. His net approval rate is under water. Trump is experiencing higher approval as people look fondly on his economic stewardship (low inflation, real wages rising, and economic growth).
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I think if Trump keeps Wisconsin in the even to down 2 range he will win Wisconsin. Trump ALWAYS overperforms the Wisconsin poll aggregate. For some reason, they just can’t poll Trump accurately in Wisconsin.
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General election poll – Pennsylvania
🔴 Trump 49%
🔵 Harris 49%
RMG #C – 783 LV – 9/20
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Trump lost Virginia in 2020 by 9.4 points. The current RCP avg is Harris +4.5 and that’s without the Ras Harris +3 included.
I just don’t see how Trump could be doing 5 points better in Virginia, but not cleaning house in the Rust Belt. But that’s just me.
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Just read the entire Gallup 2024 Election Summary that was released yesterday. It paints of an almost inpossible race for Harris and the Democrats to win. Biggest takeaway was the Economic Confidence of -28% which translates in pissed off electorate at the current policies at play.
Then you have the general satisfaction index at just 22% which is just a little ahead of the crash year of 2008.
Factor in Harris’ job approval declined from 47% in August to 44% presently and I agree with Gallup’s summation…’this is Trump’s election to lose’.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx
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Scooter, northern Virginia is like Maryland. The rest of the state is more or less like North Carolina. Conservative rural areas with liberal strongholds in the cities.
I would tend to think that the close race in Virginia is about the rural areas showing up big time, and that will mean North Carolina is very likely safe.
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Jeff Clark, who was an attorney in the Trump Administration, is looking into Harris’s record as a prosecutor. She earlier said she prosecuted “hundreds of cases against drug lords etc.”. When challenged on that number she dialed it back to fifty. Clark, however, is thinking she is lying about her prosecutorial experience and maybe hasn’t actively been present in court for any cases. If this is true, it appears almost everything about Karmala is fiction.
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Strong turnout in VA counties for Trump are up 63%. For Harris, the strong VA counties for her are only up 26%. So far there is a wide disparity between the two at this juncture of the election cycle.
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In the past 40 days, Roanoke College, Quantus Polls, University of Mary Washington, Rasmussen, and an unreleased poll Baris knows about, ALL say that Virginia is between 1 and 3 points for Harris. This collection of pollsters is pretty diverse, two university polls, a newcomer to polling, and Rasmussen.
There were some others showing a wider lead for Kamala. But Virginia is in play. And its critical for election night strategy. Polls close at 7:00 EDT, and by 8:30 enough votes will have been counted to know if its going to be a close finish, and by 9:00 there could be a winner. If that winner is Trump, then it will send shock waves across the country because everyone will know the election is over.
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The problem is that Harris +26% counties are more populous than Trump +63% counties. Percentages are meaningless unless we know the what population numbers we are talking about.
NOVA is about 37% of VA’s population. In contrast the 3 counties in the greater Philadelphia area that contribute the most votes to Democrats (Philadelphia, Montgomery and Delaware) are about 25% of the PA population.
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Ok, stupid to use that word, plus this is a hatch act violation.
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If someone on Trump’s team used those exact words but about Harris, then there would be a firestorm over it. If a commoner said that about Harris, FBI goons would show up at the door, as has happened before. Interesting video about that encounter linked at Bongino.
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Let’s see if this has legs…
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J6 bomber no dnc video footage exists? Total corruption by the fib.
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Baris is polling Nevada. So far seeing Trump +2 in Clark County and Harris “getting smoked with Independents.” Developing. . . .
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Come on jason, this has to offset your Vance concerns and get you to vote for Trump:
Headline: Michael Cohen Says He’ll Have to Leave Country If Trump Wins
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Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh
·
9m
Baris just said Kamala Harris’ internal campaign polls in Pennsylvania have her down by 4 points against Trump: 48% DJT – 44% KH.
–I like Baris and all, but am skeptical he has communication with a mole inside the Harris campaign.
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As suspected, gubment assets were at the capitol (inside and out) on j6.
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i bet we will soon find out that the pipe bombs (dnc and rnc) were placed there by gubment assets. This was the diversion needed, if a capitol breach didnt occur. There is no way the secret service would have missed the bomb device while quemala was at the dnc.
The fib was never serious about investigating this.
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Come on jason, this has to offset your Vance concerns and get you to vote for Trump”
Sorry, I know are making a joke but nothing “offsets”
“I don’t care what happens in Ukraine”
So he doesn’t care about 10 million people displaced from their homes? He doesn’t care about hundreds of thousands killed, raped, tortured, exiled? He doesn’t care about the cities and villages and homes and hospitals and schools shelled, bombed and destroyed by the Russians? He doesn’t care that Putin’s plan is for a Greater Russia or new USSR? He doesn’t care that conquering Ukraine would give Putin vast agricultural and mineral resources to strengthen Russia’s expansionist agenda?
Anybody who says that shouldn’t be President. Period.
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Baris just said Kamala Harris’ internal campaign polls in Pennsylvania have her down by 4 points against Trump: 48% DJT – 44% KH.”
Zzzzz… like anyone in her internal campaign would give that info to Baris.
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i bet we will soon find out that the pipe bombs (dnc and rnc) were placed there by gubment assets.”
I hope source for this will better than the Gateway Pundit.
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Maga planted the bombs.
-free passer
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i bet we will soon find out that the pipe bombs (dnc and rnc) were placed there by gubment assets.”
I bet we won’t find out anything of the sort. Even if it was true we wouldn’t find out.
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Maga planted the bombs.
-free passer”
Nah nah, no moving of goalposts.
You said “we will soon find out that government assets (whatever that means) planted th bombs.
Let’s see if we really find that out.
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A Trump lead in Clark County means an easy statewide win. In 2020, Biden won Clark by about 10 points.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/un-american-gop-bristles-zelenskys-criticism-trump-vance/
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Btw, “government asset” has to be someone actually working for the government in an official capacity.
So let’s see if Tina is right, that someone working for the government planted bombs on January 6. And of course, if that happened, let’s see who ordered such persons to do that.
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Zelensky has every right to “criticize Vance”.
In fact, I can’t think of any criticism of Vance regarding Ukraine that wouldn’t be entirely justified.
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After yesterdays disastrous consumer confidence #s, we get new home sales which plunged.
The fed must be seeing an economy falling rapidly, given the 50 basis point cut.
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The grifter should stfu. Not on our soil.
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So, who gave assassin #2 the $150,000 bounty? Was it a foreign gubment? By all accounts this person had no $.
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Not sure what to think of the Baris inside info on internals. On the one hand, he has disappointed before, on the other, Dems/Pinkos (BIRM) often give candid answers to moles like Project Veritas and others. 🤷🏻♂️
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Trump is going to win NC. The only time a DEM has won NC in the last 50 years was Obama in 2008 by 14k votes. Dont worry.
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Bloomberg reports:
“One person familiar with Zelensky’s conversations with foreign leaders, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said there were no real surprises in president’s so-called ‘victory plan’ and it wasn’t a major game-changer. Another official described it as a ‘wish list’.”
“This less-than-stellar assessment of his plan is yet another manifestation of the fatigue plaguing allied nations as the war runs into its third year with increasingly rapid Russian advances all over the line of contact.”
It has not been a good look for Kamala Harris’s campaign to be carting Zelensky around like an Ukrainian prop, especially as people here are more concerned about the economic/border invasion issues here rather than a stymied war over there.
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Unnamed source is worthless.
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I guess you didn’t see the reference of the excerpt to Bloomberg, Bitter. So, here is the link.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-24/ukraine-s-allies-play-down-hopes-for-zelenskiy-s-victory-plan-breakthrough
BTW, Danica Patrick is now stumping for Trump/Vance. Lots of strong, interesting women involved in their campaign.
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Zelensky coming to the US begging for more funds, then trundling around with Harris while he disses her opponents, is about as mindful as Kamala making a late run to the border this Friday.
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New Thread
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