According to Morning Consult polling taken Sept. 9-18 against likely voters:
| Trump | Harris | ||
 | AZ | 47 | 48 |
 | GA | 49 | 48 |
 | MI | 44 | 52 |
 | NC | 47 | 49 |
 | NV | 47 | 51 |
 | PA | 47 | 49 |
 | WI | 44 | 50 |
 | MN | 43 | 50 |
 | VA | 44 | 51 |
 | FL | 50 | 47 |
 | OH | 52 | 43 |
 | TX | 50 | 46 |
 | CO | 42 | 53 |
 | MD | 33 | 61 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
29 responses to “Trump closer in VA and MN than MICHIGAN”
First
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Those polls suck, let’s hope they are wrong.
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Or you could say that Trump is going to do about as well in CO as he is in MI according to MC.
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Like I said yesterday, its polling silly season. When in one day you have Trump down only 13 in New York and down 8 in Michigan. The reason?
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Interesting… probably these numbers are not realistic but any votes Kamala loses compared to Biden 2020 helps.
“Arab-American and Muslim voters angry at US support for Israel’s offensive in Gaza are shunning Democrat Kamala Harris in the presidential race to back third-party candidate Jill Stein in numbers that could deny Harris victories in battleground states that will decide the November 5 election.
A Council on American-Islamic Relations poll released this month showed that in Michigan, home to a large Arab American community, 40 percent of Muslim voters backed the Green Party’s Stein. Republican candidate Donald Trump got 18% with Harris, who is US President Joe Biden’s vice president, trailing at 12%.
Stein, a Jewish anti-Israel activist, also leads Harris among Muslims in Arizona and Wisconsin, battleground states with sizable Muslim populations where Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by slim margins
Harris was the leading pick of Muslim voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Trump prevailed in Nevada with 27%, just ahead of Harris’s 26%, according to the CAIR poll of 1,155 Muslim voters nationwide. All are battleground states that have swung on narrow margins in recent elections.
Biden won the 2020 Muslim vote, credited in some exit polls with more than 80% of their support, but Muslim backing of Democrats has fallen sharply since Israel’s nearly year-long war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip that began with the Palestinian terror group’s devastating October 7 attack on Israel.”
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Has Obama campaigned with Harris at any event other than the DNC? I can’t remember seeing him or Michelle on the campaign trail yet. It could be that Harris is saving them for the last month, but I thought it odd that we haven’t seen much of the Obama’s. He’s probably still the most popular Dem in the country. It just seems odd to me that he doesn’t appear more visibly active in supporting Harris. Anyone have any thoughts about that?
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with Harris, who is US President Joe Biden’s vice president, trailing at 12%.”
That is hilarious.
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I find it hard to believe 40% of Muslims would vote for a Jew while only 12% for Kamala, but it seems like she will lose a sizable portion of the Muslim vote in MI.
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Like I said yesterday, its polling silly season”
Maybe, but the MSM is going to run with the big headine.
HARRIS NOW LEADS IN ALL BUT ONE SWING STATES.
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t just seems odd to me that he doesn’t appear more visibly active in supporting Harris. Anyone have any thoughts about that?”
He didn’t travel around with Hillary in 2016 or Biden in 2020 either. I think he views himself as influential senior statesman, he is done with the rubber chicken speech circuit and yelling at crowds.
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So evidently Kamala bombed on Oprah last night, coming up with word salads and failing to articulate any coherent answers on the border or the economy.
But THIS is what the average person who gets their news from the MSM will read.
Warning: Vomit Alert!
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“Winfrey did what she does best: orchestrating an interview that connects with everyday Americans whose experiences illustrate the strife of a country craving empathy. The discussions were heavy at times, with members of the audience — in person and at home — in tears“
Pravda would be proud.
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The media is always going to be 100% for the Dem. Its never going to change. Even when Biden was getting crushed in the polls, they still kept twisting the headlines to make it sound like Biden would win.
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I am prescient!
“Nationally, Harris got some results that suggest she has slightly increased her lead over the former president. A Morning Consult poll put her up by 6 percentage points — her largest advantage to date in surveys from that organization — while surveys from ABC News/Ipsos and Yahoo News/YouGov put Harris ahead by 4 points and 5 points, respectively.
There were some eye-popping results for Harris in swing states too, though they were the exception rather than the rule.
The vice president’s campaign team will be happy about any reputable poll putting her up by 5 points in Pennsylvania, as a Quinnipiac University poll did; or by the same margin in Michigan, as a Marist College poll of likely voters did.
In the forecast maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Harris is now given a 55 percent chance of prevailing in November.”
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The media is always going to be 100% for the Dem. Its never going to change.”
THe problem is that it creates a narrative hard to counter if 95% of the media is in on it.
We know that candidates the public “think” is going to win usually do, a self fulfilling prophecy.
Up to the Dem convention, most Americans though Trump would win, now most think Kamala will.
It is an important, albeit psychological, advantage.
And of course, in 2016 most Americans thought Hillary would win, so it is not fool proof.
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New pole
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as she passionately confronted pressing issues during a livestream forum with Oprah Winfrey.“
I almost lost my breakfast.
Would have been a shame too. 5 strips of slab bacon, 4 links of Amish sausage, a nice slice of country ham, a mushroom omelet (got to have them veggies), sourdough toast with Amish butter, and coffee.
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Interesting article on why Allegheny Co. might cost Kamala PA.
https://www.realclearpennsylvania.com/articles/2024/09/19/the_pittsburgh_paradox_could_hand_pa_to_trump_1059597.html
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Kamala is one tough cookie.
She told Oprah last night that she will shoot any intruders into her house.
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What is that Dem hack in Nevada saying?
Let me guess.
Kamala WILL win.
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Dw new Va pole:
BREAKING: VIRGINIA STATISTICALLY TIED, latest poll finds
Harris: 47% (+1)
Trump: 46%
Undecided: 3% UMW | Sept. 3-9 | N=756LV
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1 Point lead for quemala in Virginia.
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New THread
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https://twitter.com/davidchapman141/status/1837143872524169617?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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