According to new polling done for AARP by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D). The poll was taken 9/11-9/14 against 600 LVs with a margin of error of ±4%:
WISCONSIN
Trump
48
Harris
49
U.S. Senate:
Hovde
47
Baldwin
50
Same margin found in the newly release Quinnipiac polling:
WISCONSIN
Trump
48
Harris
49
U.S. Senate:
Hovde
47
Baldwin
51
As expected, they have huge margins for Harris in Michigan and Pennsylvania:
Interesting column by Nate Silver a few days ago and before the second attempted assassination of Trump. Silver, who has said he will vote for Harris, has been the target of a couple of left leaning pubs (Salon and Vox) for being a possible traitor stated and I’m paraphrasing…
This is Trump’s election to lose (and he still might) as this point
Harris’ internal polls were suggesting that she was doing worse in the battleground polls after the convention
The race will go back to 50/50 after all of the post-debate polls have come in
The Electoral College favors Trump by 2.5 points. In other words the point spread is 2 and a half for Trump if this was football
The Harris campaign is basically running uphill with configuration to the ‘map’
Real disposable income has been flat during the Biden years-a huge indicator of how people vote
The ant-incumbent mood was evident in the UK and India
Biden is still unpopular and she is still his vice president
All in all, Silver is suggesting that the Harris campaign is ‘not bluffing’ when they say they are the underdogs.
“Most Black voters, 63%, plan to support Harris, compared with 13% for Trump, according to the new NAACP survey, which interviewed 1,000 registered Black voters across the U.S. from Aug. 6 to Aug. 12.
But 26% of Black men under 50 years old said they supported Trump, versus 49% who backed Harris. For Black men above 50, 77% said they supported Harris.
Sixty-seven percent of Black women said they supported Harris, while 8% said they supported Trump.”
This poll has a lot of undecided. If Trump gets even a small percentage of that vote, he will win the election. 63-13? 24% undecided. Give Trump 25% of that vote and he is at 20% of the black vote.
The Quinn polls are finding things almost no other pollsters are finding. Even the pollsters who have Harris winning. Harris is up on both the economy and immigration in every Rust Belt State.
Kamala Harris: “Just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn’t mean that we’re not going to walk into that home and check to see if you’re being responsible.”
Huge day today. The fed pivot begins. I think they go 25 points. If they go 50, that is a sign that the economy is weakening and that they went too high to begin with. Markets should like the 25 point cut. Markets will likely hate a 50 point cut.
Really, the big news is going to be their projections for the remainder of the year. My guess would be a monthly 25 point cut.
Side note, its amazing that during this rate hike cycle, the markets now end up at/near all time highs when the pivot begins.
Kamala, who’s supposed to be a lawyer who knows better, says the government can just walk into your home without a warrant to see “if you’re being responsible”
Kamala Harris: “Just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn’t mean that we’re not going to walk into that home and check to see if you’re being responsible.”
Charlton Heston replies from the grave:
“You can walk in if you want, but they will carry you out full of holes.”
Now lets see…which states is this not going to play very well…Rhode Island? No…Connecticut? No. Lets see…where is there a lot of deer hunting every fall…oh yeah, WI, MI, and PA.
Well, I was wrong. The fed cut by 50 BUT!!!! reduced their projected cuts for the year. So a true mixed bag here. Awaiting Powell’s conference, should be interesting. My guess is that they were spooked by the unemployment revision which is a cause for concern. The markets however reacted positively (for now) which is an irrational reaction.
Here was the result of the last internal Teamsters poll that was done September 9-15. Not sure what the difference is between undecided and don’t know.
Trump: 58% Harris: 31% Undecided: 6% Dont know: 5%
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
35 responses to “Tight race in Wisconsin”
First!
LikeLike
Trump always overperforms his poll aggregate in Wisconsin. Probably more so than any other State.
LikeLike
Just added the Quinnipiac polling to same thread, given they fit the headline anyway.
LikeLike
Wisconsin is not going to vote that far to the right of Pennsylvania. Just ain’t gonna happen.
Swing States Polling by Quinnipiac
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 48%
LikeLike
Quinn is junk.
LikeLike
Here are the glasses to put on to see the Quinnipiac polls clearly:
LikeLike
Interesting column by Nate Silver a few days ago and before the second attempted assassination of Trump. Silver, who has said he will vote for Harris, has been the target of a couple of left leaning pubs (Salon and Vox) for being a possible traitor stated and I’m paraphrasing…
All in all, Silver is suggesting that the Harris campaign is ‘not bluffing’ when they say they are the underdogs.
LikeLike
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/were-going-walk-that-home-breaking-kamala-harris/
LikeLike
Final PA poll from Quinnipiac in 2020:
Biden 51
Trump 44
Off in the direction of Biden +6.
So Harris is two points behind the margin they gave Biden in 2020.
LikeLike
Quinn is just garbage along with Monmouthy
LikeLike
and here are the senate races from Quinnipiac:
Pennsylvania – 🔵 Casey 52-43%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Baldwin 51-47%
Michigan – 🔵 Slotkin 52-46%
So the WI number is totally believable. Just like their POTUS numbers.
The PA and MI numbers are left of what other pollsters have found, just like Q’s POTUS numbers.
Garbage in, Garbage out.
LikeLike
“Most Black voters, 63%, plan to support Harris, compared with 13% for Trump, according to the new NAACP survey, which interviewed 1,000 registered Black voters across the U.S. from Aug. 6 to Aug. 12.
But 26% of Black men under 50 years old said they supported Trump, versus 49% who backed Harris. For Black men above 50, 77% said they supported Harris.
Sixty-seven percent of Black women said they supported Harris, while 8% said they supported Trump.”
This poll has a lot of undecided. If Trump gets even a small percentage of that vote, he will win the election. 63-13? 24% undecided. Give Trump 25% of that vote and he is at 20% of the black vote.
LikeLike
Of course this is an old poll…but still probably somewhat relevant
LikeLike
The Quinn polls are finding things almost no other pollsters are finding. Even the pollsters who have Harris winning. Harris is up on both the economy and immigration in every Rust Belt State.
On the economy:
PA: 50% Trump-48% Harris (+2)
MI: 50% Trump-48% Harris (+2)
WI: 51% Trump-47% Harris (+4)
Immigration:
PA: 50% Trump-46% Harris (+4)
MI: 49% Trump-48% Harris (+1)
WI: 52% Trump-45% Harris (+7)
LikeLike
Our future:
Kamala Harris: “Just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn’t mean that we’re not going to walk into that home and check to see if you’re being responsible.”
LikeLike
Huge day today. The fed pivot begins. I think they go 25 points. If they go 50, that is a sign that the economy is weakening and that they went too high to begin with. Markets should like the 25 point cut. Markets will likely hate a 50 point cut.
Really, the big news is going to be their projections for the remainder of the year. My guess would be a monthly 25 point cut.
Side note, its amazing that during this rate hike cycle, the markets now end up at/near all time highs when the pivot begins.
Big Joe
LikeLike
LikeLike
John, thanks for posting the Silver analysis.
LikeLike
Kamala Harris: “Just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn’t mean that we’re not going to walk into that home and check to see if you’re being responsible.”
Charlton Heston replies from the grave:
“You can walk in if you want, but they will carry you out full of holes.”
LikeLike
Hi Big Joe. Dow seems to be on standby mode, up 23 points.
LikeLike
If Kamala really said that it should disqualify her from the Presidency, blatantly unconstitutional.
LikeLike
Dem heads explode as Fetterman says anything that degrades Hezbollah is fine with him.
LikeLiked by 1 person
“If Kamala really said that”
Seems she did unless that video was faked.
Now lets see…which states is this not going to play very well…Rhode Island? No…Connecticut? No. Lets see…where is there a lot of deer hunting every fall…oh yeah, WI, MI, and PA.
LikeLike
Yeah Jason, markets were waiting for the fed decision. I also will not trade today because there was real uncertainty.
Big Joe
LikeLike
Well, I was wrong. The fed cut by 50 BUT!!!! reduced their projected cuts for the year. So a true mixed bag here. Awaiting Powell’s conference, should be interesting. My guess is that they were spooked by the unemployment revision which is a cause for concern. The markets however reacted positively (for now) which is an irrational reaction.
Big Joe
LikeLike
Well, not THAT positive, up about 180 now.
LikeLike
Let’s see what happens tomorrow.
LikeLike
Walt has been saying that for 4.5 billion years.
LikeLike
News – The International Brotherhood of Teamsters says it will NOT issue an endorsement in the 2024 presidential campaign
LikeLike
Unions LOVE stupid tariffs and trade wars.
LikeLike
Stephen Green is also baffled…
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/09/18/harris-keeps-embarrassing-herself-and-improving-in-the-damn-polls-n4932621
LikeLike
Here was the result of the last internal Teamsters poll that was done September 9-15. Not sure what the difference is between undecided and don’t know.
Trump: 58%
Harris: 31%
Undecided: 6%
Dont know: 5%
LikeLike
New THread
LikeLike
Limachu is still going!
LikeLike
According to CNN….”no endorsement from the International Brotherhood of Teamsters because of most members support Trump-taken from internal polls”
This is huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge. A serious blow to the Harris campaign.
Wow.
LikeLike