Trafalgar Group ( Sept. 11-12; 1,094 LV) and AmGreatness/TIPP (9/11 – 9/13; 973 LV)
 | NORTH CAROLINA |
| Trafalgar: | |
| Trump | 48 |
| Harris | 46 |
| TIPP: | |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 46 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
112 responses to “Two NC polls give Trump an edge”
First
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Dw, trump indicates that he is up 6 points in Rasmussen. Presume, it’s the latest tracking result?
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Yeah, this really helps. “Enforcement- After the election.” What a fraud.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/new-hampshire-governor-chris-sununu-signs-landmark-law/
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detectivecreativelyea379f79a0
September 14, 2024 at 10:46 am
I promise to give Tina fair warning next time. Although what I should be saying is, GFY !!!!”
Nah, here at HHR we are kinder and gentler and don’t want to upset Tina’s feelings.
Just give her fair warning so she can choose to tape her computer screen or log off.
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Tina, it’s the latest sample from Ras’s daily tracker:
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1834578211725824350?t=cRRWqkPCkcfUK3gg6SVg4A&s=19
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Tina, Trump was up 50-44 on Thursdays daily tracker.
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Jeff, you beat me to it. You Bastard !!!
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Thanks, I don’t follow the ras tracker.
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What you will read on the MSM where unfortunately most people get their news.
“Debate performance helps propel shift toward Harris
The latest Yahoo News/YouGov survey suggests that Tuesday’s debate has tipped a small but potentially consequential number of swing voters toward Harris — at least for the moment.
Among Americans who either watched the debate or followed the subsequent coverage of it, a full 56% say that Harris won. Just 26% say the same about Trump. In a break with longstanding partisan patterns, the number of Democrats who say Harris won (94%) is nearly 40 points higher than the number of Republicans who say Trump did (57%). Just 21% of independents think the former president came out on top.
Nearly half of those familiar with the debate, in fact, say Trump delivered a poor performance (48%) — while a clear majority (58%) say Harris’s performance was either excellent or good.
That same group sees Harris as the candidate who came across as more “presidential” (51% to 35%), “coherent” (50% to 29%), “competent” (50% to 36%), “focused on policy” (48% to 34%) and “strong” (47% to 39%). Trump was seen as more “insulting” (53% to 28%) and “untruthful” (49% to 35%) — as well as more responsible than Harris for making the debate “embarrassing” (50% to 29%), “painful” (46% to 30%) and “infuriating” (44% to 33%) to watch.
But Harris didn’t just win the personality contest Tuesday night; she won the policy war, too. Respondents who followed the debate say the vice president gave better answers than Trump on every issue except immigration, including abortion (53% to 30%), the Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol (49% to 28%), her own record (45% to 31%), the cost of living (45% to 39%) and even Trump’s record (44% to 36%).
As a result, 46% of them now say the debate made them think better of Harris. Just 20% say the same about Trump — including a mere 15% of independents.”
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so if we are to follow the conservatives at morning consult /sarc off Harris is up 5% and if we are to follow Rasmussen reports (not Scott) Trump is up 6%
can I be the first to say neither is where the race is at. It’s 1% one way or the other…which means Trump wins the EC
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9/14/2024 NC Mail request % (comp to yesterday) [comp to 2020 mail request final %]
Dem 38.21% (-0.24%) [-10.19%]
Rep 22.87% (+0.27%) [+4.57%]
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This kind of “polling” is designed to give the impression Kamala is a done deal and to depress turnout and donations for Trump.
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https://conservativebrief.com/trumps-after-85699/?utm_source=CB&utm_medium=ProTrumpNews
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The last four national polls on RCP are Kamala +3, +5, +5, +4.
In my view Trump needs to be at most -3 to win the EC so if these polls are accurate, a big IF, he is in the danger zone.
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I wonder what the real number is if they admit to 300.
“Oregon officials acknowledged Friday that the state mistakenly registered more than 300 non-citizens as voters since 2021 in what they described as a “data entry issue” that happened when people applied for driver’s licenses.”
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Jason. Review who did those polls and their previous results. Most only show a 1% move to Harris.
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and they go counter to swing state polls which all show movement toward Trump since the debate
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Yet state poles say something else (specifically battleground) where she is trailing in Michigan and pa.
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I don’t see any movement in the national poles.
ras plus 2. (From the other day)
one other was tied.
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Vic, I did not see your post about the state poles ahead of time.
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Also, nc apparently went from “tied, or Harris plus one, to trump plus 2 or 3.
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But quemala got big mo.
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I think Kamala has big mo.
-free passer
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/watch-kamala-harris-fails-to-answer-questions-in-word-salad-filled-abc-news-interview-cmc/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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Tina, this is not a warning post. Selzer is dropping the Iowa poll tomorrow. I would expect it to be decent for Trump.
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I believe last Selzer poll was Trump +18, so doubt it will be that good.
Might give us an idea of how well Trump is really doing in Wisconsin.
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I already posted that and Bitter is on it, we will claim royalties.
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Jason. Review who did those polls and their previous results. Most only show a 1% move to Harris.”
Not sure I buy that logic.
You are saying ok Trump is down in 4 polls nationally by between 3 and 5 points but that hasn’t changed, maybe another point for Kamala?
IF these polls are right, a big IF, Trump would be in trouble, and the fact they “haven’t changed” is little solace.
That was my point.
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And btw, Tina might be drinking a lot of Kool-aid, but the state poll averages at RCP are hardly that great either
Top battlegrounds D + 0.2
NC Trump + 0.1
PA Harris +0.1
GA Trump +0.3
MI Harris +0.7
WI Harris + 1.8
NE Harris +0.6
AZ Trump +1.6
So basically the only battleground Trump has ANY kind of real lead is AZ, if you want to call +1.6 a real lead. The rest are basically tied.
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I mentioned recent polling-state (battleground) poles published here within the last few days and today.
Pa,wi, and nc have moved to trump.
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Jason. If Trump is down 5% the country is in trouble. That means the house flips, mT stays blue and others are in troubke
I’m not sure I buy a VO whose approval ratings were 23% 60 days ago is leading by 5%. But I could be wrong and they could be spot on
DW – what was their average tilt in 2020
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There is a disconnect between the national cited here and recent state poles.
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Said nobody at HHR.
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My wine chick friends say trump is down 6 points.
-free passer
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Eric Daugherty on X:
Many people are unfamiliar with why IOWA is important, understandably. It’s safe Trump – BUT it means a lot for Wisconsin.
RED/BLUE SHIFT BY ELECTION (Iowa/Wisconsin):
🔴 2000 shift R: +10/10
🔴 2004 shift R: +1/-0.2
🔵 2008 shift D: +10/13.5
🔴 2012 shift R: +4/7
🔴 2016 shift R: +15/7.7
🔵 2020 shift D: +1.2/1.4
There’s a clear trend. First of all, these two have been shifting in the same direction for the past couple decades. Only in 2016 did they differ by a decent amount, but the same direction nonetheless.
Iowa IS now further Republican than it once was, while Wisconsin is pure purple.
But the demographics in portions of each state are so similar that their trends have still tracked, even from 2016 to 2020 – nearly IDENTICAL shifts.
Wisconsin went to Biden by 0.6 in 2020 while Iowa went to Trump by around 8 points.
IF Trump is winning Iowa by a considerable amount more than he did in either ’16 or ’20 – then that’s a sign that Wisconsin may shift the same direction as well… and Wisconsin shifting even 1 point Republican more than likely means Trump wins the election.
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’m not sure I buy a VO whose approval ratings were 23% 60 days ago is leading by 5%. But I could be wrong and they could be spot on”
If you look at the RCP graph since Aug 4, Kamala has not lost the lead for even a day. Her +1.7 lead today almost matches her best +1.9 lead of Sept. 2.
She has also led in 13/17 national polls, 2 are tied and Trump leads in 2.
Anyone who thinks this is a confidence builder is a moron.
Kamala is showing much more “staying power” than I had hoped. Maybe her disastrous interview yesterday will have some impact, although none of the MSM is covering it.
Also there is this:
Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS
@DocNetyoutube
For the record, because so many people are impatient and keep asking, I expect to publish the affidavit between 4pm-9pm on Sunday, September 15th, 2024. If it drops before that time, I will give a 1-hour post with a heads up that it will post before that time.
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Nobody takes my posts seriously so I argue with fake posters I invent.
-Cult Member
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Here is the RCP link….not pretty
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
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Tina has a lot of imaginary free passers.
Of course the real free passer is Tina, still giving Putin a free pass on his war crimes and still giving Trump a free pass on being the Mother of All RINOS.
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The affidavit is going to happen, I am convinced it exists.
The key is the content.
If the whistleblower actually alleges the questions were provided and there was a deal to protect Kamala from fact checks, it could be significant. It could negate any of the “bump” Kamala got from the debate.
We will know in 24 hours.
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I hope whomever it is has a plan B for employment.
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Awww…
“Some White House officials also disappointed that Harris did not stand up for Biden during the debate, a former Biden White House official tells me. Many felt Harris missed opportunities acknowledge that Biden deserves thanks for his service, according to the source.”
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I’m with Jason on this one. Nobody wants to see Trump win more than I do. A Harris Presidency would be a disaster. But, at some point we need to see some of these polls looking more favorable to Trump. National polls with Harris up 1 or 2, I can live with. Harris up 4 or 5, that’s a danger zone, as Jason pointed out. I expected Harris to crash and burn by now, but so far the polls aren’t showing it.
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In almost every election, the economy trumps everything else in the end. Trump leads rather significantly on the economy in most every poll. I’m praying that will be the case again this election.
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Be careful, Scooter, you might be labeled a “free passer”.
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Hey Bitter, do lawyers get any special privilege for making false allegations on behalf of a client?
Lowell certainly smeared the IRS whistleblowers by claiming they engaged in illegal behavior and “committed felonies”, not only in his briefs, but in statements to the media.
“Lest there be any doubt that Lowell had the malicious intent to cause Shapley and Ziegler serious professional and personal reputational harm, he was not content to make his false allegations to investigators and other government officials. In this letter, Lowell also wrote to Congress, “[W]e are also making these materials available to the public.” This was an act designed to harm Shapley and Ziegler by republishing the entire package of previous defamatory falsehoods in a larger forum.”
But does he have a certain immunity because he was actively engaged in representing the client?
https://redstate.com/smoosieq/2024/09/14/turnabout-is-fair-play-irs-whistleblowers-sue-hunter-bidens-lawyer-for-defamation-n2179316
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Best fact check ever?
https://x.com/RobProvince/status/1834752408800399444
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Lawyers can face professional discipline for knowingly presenting false information to a court. “My client told me to lie” is not a defense. A lawyer has a duty of candor to the tribunal. A lawyer also can’t knowingly present a witness who is going to lie. That is why criminal defense lawyers generally don’t ask their client, “Did you do it?”
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Lawyers can also face defamation, libel and slander suits like other defendants.
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Wisconsin poll finds Harris with a tight lead
🔵 Harris: 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 47%
🟡 Undecided: 3%
(This has Harris winning old voters by over 20 points)
InsiderAdvantage | Sept. 11-12 | N=800LV
This same pollster had Trump up 1 in Michigan last week, and Trump up +2 with Seniors. So I guess Seniors in Michigan are voting much differently than Seniors in Wisconsin, according to this pollster.
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Sure would Love for this to be true. Would just pile onto the Story that Jason has been talking about.
BREAKING: New leaks indicate Linsey Davis and David Muir were each paid a million dollars from the Kamala campaign for “moderating the ABC debate.”
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What is the origin of “free passer”? I’m still a bit loss at it’s meaning.
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It started as a way of saying people were giving free passes to a candidate. It started with me, Jason or Tina. Now Tina just uses it to make up things people did not say and argue against that.
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Polymarket has had Harris ahead for about three days now. They apparently haven’t heard the news.
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guess it’s over. Trumps going to lose. No need to vote. Face it. We have to accept a Kamala administration because msnbc morning consult and yahoo said she’s up by 4 and 5%.
oh well it was a good run. Can’t wait for 28
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Like Nikki Haley’s getting a free pass for something said after Floyd Brown death. But Trump get’s thousands of free passes but he has “free pass immunity.” Got it 🙂
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Yes my work is done.
-free passer.
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Tina is obviously 12 steps short of completing AA.
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And you are one ambulance chase away from making quota
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/president-trump-las-vegas-can-you-believe-i/
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
“NEW: Kamala Harris has completely changed her position on the 2nd Amendment in less than 72 hours.
During the debate on Tuesday, Kamala Harris blasted Trump after he said she wanted to take people’s firearms away.
Harris told Trump to ‘stop lying’ and said she wasn’t going to take ‘anybody’s’ firearms away.
Less than 72 hours later during an interview with ABC News, Harris revealed she *does* support taking people’s firearms away, announcing her plan for an ‘assault weapon’ ban.
Harris has also voiced her support for mandatory buybacks in the past.”
Via Collin Rugg
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Don’t worry the free oassers will defend quemala and her interview.
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Zzzzzzzz Ambulance chasers represent Plaintiffs. I don’t. You have been told this hundreds of times.
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No. They won’t because they exist only in your delusional mind.
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Yeah, let’s push a “debate affidavit” as “hope” that trump will be able to “make up lost ground from the debate.”
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Only if trump did not mention illegals and mean tweet after it would he have “won the debate.”
-free passer
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They need to close this grift right away.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13849447/Biden-Harris-border-crisis-migrants-billions-benefits.html
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https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/09/kamala_harris_who_majored_in_economics_had_no_idea_what_inflation_was_or_what_to_do_about_it_in_philly_interview.html
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Tina continues to embarrass herself.
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Mets started their 2 best pitchers in the first 2 games. Phillies started their pitcher with a terrible record against the Mets in game 1 and a minor league call up today. Great.
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Eric Daugherty:
The share of Americans who say America is on the “wrong track” is currently eclipsing BOTH 2016 and 2020, when the incumbent party LOST each time.
🔵 Nov. 6, 2012: -13.5 ➡️ incumbent party wins
🔴 Nov. 8, 2016: -30.7 ➡️ incumbent party loses
🔵 Nov. 3, 2020: -29.4 ➡️ incumbent party loses
🔴 TODAY: -30.9 ➡️ suggests incumbent party is on track to LOSE similar to 2016
Let that sink in. More Americans are fed up with Democratic White House rule than they were in 2016 – when Trump made states like New Hampshire and Minnesota close – and 2020 – during the PANDEMIC and lockdowns.
There are other key metrics to examine when predicting presidential elections. Horse-race polling was, and still is, all over the place. The sentiment is there for a big Trump W.
Of course, things can change come election day. But will they change much? Less than 60 days
Scooterboy
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You cannot change that sentiment that quickly.
it’s inflation- food, rent (housing), and energy.
20 percent rise in food prices/ over a 3.5 years.
We are over $5 a gallon in gas here in the bay in the fall?
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Maybe avoid the dog stuff.
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Here we go again
NEW YORK TIMES: “It is becoming increasingly likely that there will be no clear and immediate winner on election night and that early returns could give a false impression of who will ultimately prevail.”
“If a winner is not declared on election night, it will not necessarily point to failures in the process. More likely, it will be a result of the intense security measures required for counting mail-in ballots.”
Scooterboy
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I paid $6.99 for soda and $4.99 for a “big” back of chips.
$2.99 and $1.99 under Trump.
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The chia pet will tell us that inflation is going down.
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Here in CA a democrat state Senator of prominence, Gloria Romero, switched parties, for the same reasons RFK Jr. castigated the dem party —- because of how radical the dem party had become. I have always liked Gloria Romero because, although her policy ideas might have differed from my own, she played fair, listened to the other side, and was an honest, competent political opponent. Now, she has become a Republican, saying she didn’t leave the democrat party but rather they left her. I hope more people will take the blinders off and see how corrupt and malicious the dem party has become.
According to Gloria Romero:
“Like a banana republic, the dedazo was used by political elites to tap the candidate they chose. Essentially, they executed a political coup.
As California’s attorney general, Harris was unimpressive.
She made an intentional choice to hitch herself to the powerful teachers’ union and was clearly being coddled by a power elite that was even then shaping her political future.
Her manipulated rise is in line with the Democratic Party’s giant leap toward authoritarianism and censorship.
President Ronald Reagan warned that if fascism comes to America it will come as liberalism, and he was right: I have witnessed individual freedoms being trapped, silenced, censored.”
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NT loaded for 7:00.
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more of this please.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/watch-blinken-go-home-get-lost-polish-member/
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https://nypost.com/2024/09/13/opinion/im-a-democrat-but-i-joined-the-gop-and-back-trump/
link for Gloria Romero’s piece.
I just don’t see how anyone could even consider Kamala Harris for the job of POTUS – someone who has lied and manipulated her way to the top of a presidential ticket without really being voted on to compete with others from her own party. She is truly a want-to-be pretender having no core principles, who will do anything, be anyone to climb the ladder of importance.
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Umm…Didn’t Trump spend decades as a Democrat funding Democrats and then switch parties to run for President?
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Good poll for Trump
BREAKING: Trump LEADS BY 3+ POINTS in latest national poll!
HEAD TO HEAD:
🔴 Trump: 51% (+3)
🔵 Harris: 48%
FULL BALLOT:
🔴 Trump: 51% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 47%
🟡 Others/Don’t know: 1%
AtlasIntel | Sept. 11-12 | N=1,775
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Stein is on the ballot in Ga. The drats tried to remove her.
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No, that is a Russian disinfo poll. Trump is trailing by 5.
-free passer
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I do worry about Georgia. Governor Hee haw and rattburger do not inspire any confidence.
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We know why the free passers were upset today.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/09/14/kamala-harris-gives-bizarre-word-salad-interview-highlighting-why-campaign-director-brian-fallon-tries-to-keep-her-hidden/
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Latest national poll finds Trump is leading Harris on EVERY major issue
🔴 IMMIGRATION: Trump+17
🔴 ISRAEL-HAMAS: Trump+16
🔴 CHINA COMPETITION: Trump+15
🔴 ECONOMY: Trump+14
🔴 INFLATION: Trump+14
🔴 NATIONAL DEBT: Trump+14
🔴 UKRAINE: Trump+12
Other issues
🔴 COMBAT CORRUPTION: Trump+9
🔴 SCOTUS JUSTICES: Trump+7
🔴 REDUCING POVERTY/INEQUALITY: Trump+6
🔴 HEALTHCARE: Trump+5
🔴 DEMOCRACY: Trump+4
🔴 EDUCATION: Trump+3
🔵 ABORTION: Harris+2
🔵 ENVIRONMENT: Harris+6
AtlasIntel | Sept. 11-12 | N=1,77
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This election is all about abortion.
-free passer.
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Not sure I buy Harris only up 2 on Abortion and Trump leading by 5 on Healthcare. But the rest seem plausible.
Scooterboy
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good point. could be that those two are not highly rated issues. They are bottom tier issues that only exist in bitter world.
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good comeback by the Phillies. Mets stopped playing when they went ahead. Reason why the Phillies are leading their division
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Joel Weingart on X:
Atlas Intel shows massive shifts from 2020 towards Trump across most demographics:
Among men (+11), women (+5), college graduates (+13), the 18-29 age group (+19), Hispanics (+8), Blacks (+36), and Asians (+42).
Scooterboy
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Again, nobody said that.
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Trump was right that Democrats wanted Roe v. Wade overturned.
– Cult Member
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Not sure why the Mets pulled their starter so soon.
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I think trump can seal the election by going into a McDonalds.
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Boom?
atlasintel.org
Trump 50.9
Harris 48.0
According to Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin”, Atlasintel was the most accurate overall pollster in 2020.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1835079948798669292
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Mendoza is an ok manager, but he’shorrible at handling pitchers. He should have gone Garrett in 7nth Butto 8th and Diaz 9nth. Young is a disaster and should never see a game after the 5th/6th inning.
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Is she about to blow Willie?
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Poll from Atlasintel. Nate Silver’s “Silver Bulletin” rated Atlasintel as their most accurate overall pollster in 2020.
Trump 50.9
Harris 48
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1835079948798669292
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Bitter,
I have two posts in moderation, apparently. I attempted to link the Atlasintel poll showing Trump up 50.9 to 48. Poll taken 11-12 Sep.
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Walker was demoted to the bullpen because he sucked as a starter. Of course he pitches 3 scoreless. Harper has not had a HR in 30 games. He hits 2 today. Strange game.
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Abdul does not exist according to thr drats. Trump also said he wanted every piece of equipment, vehicle, weapon, gun, and bolt out of Afghanistan.
“During the debate, Trump reminded the country, “The Taliban was killing our soldiers, with snipers, a lot of them, with snipers… I got involved. And Abdul is the head of the Taliban. He is still the head of the Taliban, and I told Abdul, ‘Don’t do it anymore. You do it anymore, you’re going to have problems.’ And he said, ‘Why do you send me a picture of my house?’ I said, ‘You’re going to have to figure that out, Abdul.’ And for 18 months we had nobody killed.”
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Released
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Marv, I already posted the Atlis poll. Are you trying to steal my thunder?
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here’s the deal everyone. Like him or hate the person he is, he was a damn fine overall President and would be infinitely better than Harris.
there. I said it
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where did everyone go
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Polymarket and Predictit are swinging massively toward Trump on all of this. Oh wait. Scratch that, reverse it.
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