According to new polling from Emerson College, taken 8/13 – 8/14 against 1000 LV with a MoE of 3.0:
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 49 |
| Harris | 48 |
| With Kennedy: | |
| Trump | 47.4 |
| Harris | 46.8 |
| Kennedy | 3 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 44 |
| Casey | 48 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
50 responses to “Tie in Pennsylvania”
first
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I honestly believe that the debate is going to be the make or break point in the election
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I don’t.
Historically, that would be an anomaly.
Debates rarely if ever do that, unless there is a complete breakdown like the Biden-Trump debate.
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McCormick is blanketing the airwaves here with a hard hitting ad that includes an introduction by Trump.
He is obviously trying to keep ticket splitters to a minimum.
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FWIW
The RCP average shows 47.9-47.9 in Pennsylvania. At this point in 2016, Hillary led by 9.2%. In 2020, Biden led by 6.4%.
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In 2016 Trump won by 0.7%
in 2020 Biden “won” by 1.1%
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Finally someone agrees with me. Let Trump be Trump. A “nice” Trump is not going to win.
https://pjmedia.com/scott-pinsker/2024/08/15/donald-trump-is-following-the-wrong-pr-advice-its-time-to-release-the-orange-wrecking-ball-n4931688
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I think advising Trump to stop “personal attacks” and “concentrate on the issues” is political suicide.
Are the Democrats stopping “personal attacks”?
No, didn’t think so.
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Vance is turning out to be a better campaigner than I expected.
Too bad his foreign policy ideas come straight from Ron Paul.
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Just updated the thread, given that with RFK, Trump actually still leads, by 0.6, 47.4 to 46.8
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The “nice” Dems
Biden says his Project 2025 is to “beat the hell” out of Republicans
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He is going to beat the hell out a Trump doll at his beach house in 2025.
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Heard the Nathan Bartgis Band last night. Have heard them several other times. They are pretty good and have been the opening band for many top country bands in the US. Cut some new songs in Nashville in the past few years. The front man graduated from where I taught in 2019 and is the son of a former student of mine. the base player is the son of a former fellow teacher at HHS. They hail from Hedgesville WV.
If you ever get a chance to see them, you should. At least look them up on Facebook or YouTube.
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The Emerson LV poll is R+1 (41-40). The margin for “who they voted for in 2020” was about spot on at Biden, 48.2-47.1. About 3% of respondents did not vote in 2020. And, for 51% of respondents, the economy is the top issue.
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“I think advising Trump to stop “personal attacks” and “concentrate on the issues” is political suicide.”
How is Trump personally attacking Harris helping Trump? It’s not. It makes him look sexist and racist! And that is why Trump is losing women by 7%. There is plenty issues to attack Harris on: illegal immigration, economy, her tie breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act that helped the IRS go after service and hospitality workers for not paying taxes on tips….
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well a debate did matter. Trump soundly beat Biden and Biden dropped out.
but that is the only time. This is a referendum on an unpopular administration and veep,
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However, that was an exception.
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It seems like it’s every couple of days. Trump meanly attacking. Trump not talking about the “issues.” Like clockwork here
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The poles have been generally bad for quemala. How will she turn this around?
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At least lard arse, Chris Christie, won’t be in charge of the transition. Everything given to lard arse, he wrecked
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By “beat the hell out of”, you man geriatric physical therapy.
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James Comer launches an investigation into Doltz and his Ccp ties.
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Some of the Poles (and others from Baltic) have been for Harris since they are against Russia. But I have a friend in Lithuania that is really pro-Trump, pro-Russia and anti-NATO. Many years ago she was extremely anti-Russia because of what the Soviet Union had done. But now she has totally drank the pro-Russian kool-aid.
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I think the election is a referendum on Trump. Sue me.
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I am going to a Hootie & the Blowfish concert tonight. I am that cool.
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https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112972919734661142
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Tina: Walz has been strongly anti-communist China. That has been true ever since his trips there as a social studies teacher. His wedding is on the 5th anniversary of Tiananmen Square since it is a date etched in his mind.
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lol, polly
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From where I sit, it looks like Walz is not wearing well at all. It sent the message loud and clear that “We Democrats are the party of wildly irresponsible fiscal policy that will result in the second great depression, and we are the party that cheers wildly at the thought of tricking a little boy into letting us lop off his private parts.”
Instead she could have picked the governor of PA, NC or KY, and sent the message, “We are the centrist party of Bill Clinton” not that it would be true, but it would at least sound believable to gullible independents.
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Comer is an idiot. And so is Tina.
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Yup, Doltz as been a disaster. Every day, it’s something about stolen valor, burning mn, his policies of failure, and his Ccp ties.
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I think the Ky Governor would have been quemala best pick. Instead she went for Doltz.
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I kind of think Raygun, the breakdancer from Australia is hot.
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Joe Biden Resorts to Violent Rhetoric Against Republicans: “Beat the Hell out of Them, I Mean it!”
Imagine the media frenzy had it been this headline:
Trump Resorts to Violent Rhetoric Against Democrats: “Beat the Hell out of Them, I Mean it!”
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I scanned the news to see if something is going on. Suddenly Trump dropped two on PredictIT and Harris is up 1, this after the recent good polling news for Trump.
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Interesting Rasmussen chart. They were pretty spot on in 2016 and 2020, but notice how different 2024 looks so far:
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By the way, that PA poll from Emerson did offer Stein, West, and Oliver to the field, but all three came up with big ZEROS.
Kennedy ran hoping that his name would get a following, and given the double-haters out there he could thread the middle. But that failed spectacularly.
Stein and West ran believing Trump would beat the pulp out of Biden, so they could grab up as much of a percentage as possible and then claim the country is ready for communism and environmental extremism.
But as it is now, Harris = Stein/West, so there is no reason for either of them to stay in the race. Their tiny slice of the pie is now for Harris.
Not sure why the Libertarians nominated Oliver, given three far-leftists were already running.
And so we have entered the phase where its Trump vs. Harris, and then pollsters are right to ask for Other and leave it at that.
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Kernel Sanders has been removed from the mi ballot.
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aka kernel west.
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I used to follow the ballot access issues very closely when it was Biden on the ballot. Simply put, Biden voters were looking elsewhere, so it mattered in close battleground states like Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and Oregon. But now that the battleground states are back to MI, WI, PA, AZ, NV and GA, and now that three of these candidates cannot even get half a percent in polling to round up to 1, and Kennedy is on track to top out around 2, its essentially irrelevant.
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https://clayhiggins.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Preliminary-Investigative-Report-8.12.24.pdf
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Looking at Michigan polling there were a few times West got up to 0.5 percent to round up to 1, but most of the time he was at 0.
Now that he is off the ballot, his 0.3% will either stay home, or vote for one of the other loons. Not impactful for the outcome.
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and if you worry about the impact of RFK and his 2%, here is the status on his ballot access in the battleground states:
AZ: TBA
GA: Yes
MI: Yes
NV: Yes, but Democrats fighting it
NC: Yes
PA: Yes, but Democrats fighting it
WI: Yes
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/weve-seen-this-tried-venezuela-argentina-soviet-union/
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One of the ironic things is that the DEMOCRAT lawsuits to kick RFK off the ballots in at least five states were filed when Biden was the candidate and they believed RFK hurt Biden more than Trump. Now that Harris is the candidate, she grabbed up the Dem-leaning portion of the double-haters, so now RFK hurts TRUMP more, and if their legal action is successful, they will be helping TRUMP.
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
Kamala Harris is allowing Venezuela’s dangerous criminals to freely enter our country through her WIDE OPEN Southern Border, and now she wants to bring Venezuela’s dangerous economic policies into our Nation as well. If Kamala is elected and implements her Communist Price Caps, there will be famine, starvation, and poverty, the likes of which we have never seen. America will NEVER recover!
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
Kamala Harris wants to raise your taxes and make you pay for free healthcare and free housing in luxury hotels for her millions of illegal aliens. Meanwhile, our Veterans are sleeping on the streets and Kamala’s running mate, Weirdo Tim Walz, voted against my VA Mission Act that made healthcare more affordable and accessible for our Nation’s Heroes! Kamala and Walz will put Criminals, Terrorists, and Illegal Aliens FIRST. I will always put law-abiding, hardworking, patriotic AMERICANS First!
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DW: I was thinking Predictit might move toward Trump with the polls, Trump’s press conference and Harris’ economic package. But it just sort of bounces in the same place.
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/08/16/new-video-appears-to-show-dc-police-units-planting-a-j6-pipe-bomb/
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NT
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