According to St. Pete Polls (6) and Big Data Poll (13):
 | FLORIDA – St. Pete Polls |
| Trump | 48 |
| Biden | 42 |
| FLORIDA – Big Data Poll |
| Trump | 50 |
| Biden | 37 |
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Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
19 responses to “Trump up 6 in Florida, or 13 in Florida, depending on which pollster you believe.”
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/florida-swings-hard-to-trump-in-sunshine-state-poll-for-march-2024/
Trump +13 in Fl.
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Tina, just found that and added it to this same thread. Thanks.
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Split the difference between them, and Trump is up almost 10. That’s where I have heard others pinpoint his lead.
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You judge between the two from the final FLORIDA poll of each in 2020:
Final St. Pete Polls of Florida:
Trump 48
Biden 49 (+1)
Final BIG DATA poll of Florida
Trump 47 (+2)
Biden 45
Final RESULT was Trump 51, Biden 48 (Trump +3)
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Statistically, St. Pete was not terribly far off (+4 in the direction of Biden), and so its probably the +10 GF mentioned above, which is consistent with other polls. Florida is not a battleground state, and its not in play.
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DJT won FL by 3.3%, or 370k votes in 2020. Keeping turnout constant, that would net him another 700k+. I believe that he will trim the Biden margin in CA from 29 down to 22, maybe even 20; that’s between 1.3 and 1.6 million off Biden’s 2020 NPV margin. So, right there, you are looking at that 7 million NPV chopped down to about 5 million, perhaps a bit less. Just narrowing NY from a 23 point loss to 17 nets another 1.5 million. Do the same across the other big population Blue states (I doubt Trump will do worse in any state except VT), and then factor in depressed Dem turnout, expecially amongst Blacks, and before you know it, that whole PV margin evaporates.
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No, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa (traditional battleground states) are not in play. I very much doubt North Carolina is either.
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I’m not sayaing that Baris has a +3R house effect, but if one did, they could point to Lake coming up on the short end of a draw when Baris predicted a 53-47 win.
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We can split the diff. One thing we dint have to worry about Florida like 2000/2004.
It’s not in play.
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Pew Research says they both stink (pun intended)
Biden favorability 37/62
Trump favorability 39/60
Feb 13-25, 12,693 adults.
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Poor Nate Silver is very worried and so he should be LOL
“Democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color”
https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support
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GIven the national matchup polling which is pretty consistent at Trump +2, I really don’t believe that either NC or TX is in play either.
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Texas is without a doubt not in play in TX. I had a dinner with some friends this week, a few of whom came here legally and have been waiting FOREVER for papers, and they are FURIOUS at Biden for letting all the illegals in, giving them all these benefits and pushing them to the head of the line.
I was in shock at just how angry they were. They used to be staunchly anti-trump and now even their kids said they couldn’t wait until Trump came back in so times could get good again
Do not underestimate the effect of Biden’s policy of letting illegals come in will have in the Hispanic community. They are very very angry about doing things the right way and getting screwed over by Biden.
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Quick rescue poll from Reuters/Ipsos for Biden
Biden 50% Trump 48%
I am ok with that. With that margin Trump wins a landslide electoral college vote.
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Vict, if turnout stayed constant and we had 150M cast, that would be a 3 million Biden NPV margin. And ALL of that would come out of CA alone. NY, IL, MA, MD, NJ and WA can balance out a lot of smaller Red states, but they can’t make up for the rest of the country swinging to Trump (espcially when Trump will improve in NY and probably NJ as well).
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Mike Pence refuses to endorse Trump.
What a weak pathetic man.
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Anti-Trump Neocons Raising $50 Million To Keep Open-Border Democrats In Power
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/anti-trump-neocons-raising-50-million-keep-open-border-democrats-power
The ads will run in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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Democrat Privilege?
They both lied under oath and they both get a pass.
https://x.com/RickyDoggin/status/1768782534148759722?s=20
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Janzam and Tina won’t be in today.
They are both hung over after a wild night celebrating Putin’s “election” win where he got 99.9% of the vote against fierce competition
After endless rounds of vodka fueled toasts to “more dead Ukrainians” they retired in a drunken stupor.
They hope to be here tomorrow to cheer on Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine, they hope Putin won’t be angry they will be taking a day off.
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