The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Presidential Polls – Nevada:

	AVERAGE	X	49.3	46.2	1.2	3.1
Pollster	Dates/Sample	MoE	Trump	Harris	Oth	Gap
AtlasIntel	11/3-11/4; 707 LV	4.0	50.2	47.1		+3.1
Patriot Polling	11/1-11/3; 792 RV		49.5	49.4		+0.1
AtlasIntel	11/1-11/2; 782 LV		51.4	45.9		+5.5
Emerson College	10/30-11/2; 840 LV		48.4	48.1		+0.3
The New York Times/Siena College	10/24-11/2; 1,010 LV		46	48	2	+2
AtlasIntel	10/30-10/31; 845 LV		51	47		+4
Emerson	10/29-10/31; 700 LV	3.6	47	48		+1
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/28-10/31; 690 LV		48	47	1	+1
Susquehanna	10/28-10/31; 400 LV	4.9	50	44		+6
Noble Predictive Insights	10/28-10/31; 593 LV		48	49	0	+1
AtlasIntel	10/27-10/30; 845 LV	3.0	50.5	46.9	1.2	+3.6
YouGov The Times of London	10/25-10/31; 773 LV		47	48	0	+1
Data for Progress	10/25-10/30; 721 LV		47	49	1	+2
AtlasIntel	10/25-10/29; 1,083 LV	3.0	48.4	47.5	0.6	+0.9
Rasmussen Reports	10/25-10/28; 767 L	3.0	49	47		+2
Trafalgar Group	10/25-10/28; 1,082 LV		47.6	47.8	1.5	+0.2
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/25-10/27; 531 LV		47	47	1	0
CNN/SSRS	10/21-10/26; 683 LV		48	47		+1
Democracy Institute	10/22-10/24; 375 LV		49	45		+4
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/20-10/22; 540 LV		47	46	0	+1
OnMessage	10/19-10/22; 600 LV		50	47		+3
InsiderAdvantage	10/19-10/20; 800 LV		47.9	47.7		+0.2
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	10/16-10/20; 449 LV	5.0	48.3	48.8		+0.5
Focaldata	10/3-11/1; 1,324 LV		46.7	48.3		+1.5
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/16-10/18; 529 LV		47	46	2	+1
AtlasIntel	10/12-10/17; 1171 LV	3.0	48.4	47.1		+0.3
CCES/YouGov	10/1-10/25; 933 LV		47	51		+4
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/12-10/14; 838 LV		47	47	1	0
AARP	10/8-10/15; 600 LV		49	47		+2
Rasmussen Reports	10/9-10/14; 748 LV	3.0	49	47		+2
Trafalgar Group	10/10-10/13; 1088 LV	2.9	44.8	45.6	4	+0.8
Morning Consult	10/6-10/15; 496 LV		45	49		+4
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates	10/6-10/9; 800 LV		50	47		+3
The Washington Post/George Mason University	9/30-10/15; 652 LV		48	48		0
Emerson College	10/5-10/8; 900 LV		48	49		+1
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO	9/28-10/8; 600 RV		47	42	3	+5
RMG Research	9/30-10/3; 782 LV		49	49		0
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/27-10/2; 514 LV		47	48	2	+1
InsiderAdvantage	9/29-9/30; 800 LV		49	48		+1
OnMessage	9/24-10/2; 500 LV		47	45		+2
Global Strategy Group/North Star Opinion Research	9/23-9/29; 407 LV		47	47	2	0
Quantus Insights	9/23-9/25; 628 LV		48.8	47.7		+1.1
TIPP	9/23-9/25; 736 LV	3.7	49	50	1	+1
AtlasIntel	9/20-9/25; 858 LV	3.0	47.7	50.6		+2.9
Cook Political Report	9/19-9/25; 409 LV		47	48		+1
Morning Consult Bloomberg	9/19-9/25; 516 LV		44	50	4	+6
Rasmussen	9/19-9/22; 993 LV		49	48		+1
Remington Research Group	9/16-9/20; LV		49	48		+1
Redfield and Wilton	9/16-9/19; 652 LV		45	45	1	0
Tarrance Group	9/16-9/19; 600 LV		44	47		+3
Emerson College	9/15-9/18; 895 LV		49.0	48.8		+0.2
Morning Consult	9/9-9/18; 474 LV		47	51		+4
Noble Predictive Insights	9/9-9/16; 692 LV	3.4	47	47	1	0
Trafalgar Group	9/11-9/13; 1,079 LV		43.5	45.3	7.8	+1.8
Focaldata	9/3-9/16; 589 LV		47.9	49.4		+1.5
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/6-9/9; 698 LV		46	45	2	+1
Morning Consult	8/30-9/8; 516 LV		48	48		0
Patriot Polling	9/1-9/3; 788 RV		47	47		0
InsiderAdvantage	8/29-8/31; 800 LV		48	47		+1
CNN/SSRS	8/23-8/29; 626 LV		47	48	2	+1
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8/25-8/28; 490 LV		47	47	1	0
Emerson College	8/25-8/28; 1,168 LV		49	49		0
Morning Consult	8/23-8/26; 416 LV		46	48	5	+2
Fox News	8/23-8/26; 1026 RV		48	50		+2
Rasmussen Reports	8/13-8/18, 980 LVs	3.0	48	46		+2
NY Times/Siena	8/12-8/15; 677 LV		48	47		+1
Redfield and Wilton	8/12-8/15; 640 LV		43	42	9	+1
Focal Data	8/6-8/16; 651 LV		42	48		+6
Strategies 360	8/7-8/14; 350 RVs		42	48	5	+6
Trafalgar Group	8/6-8/8; 1,000 LV		46	45	5	+3
Redfield and Wilton	7/31-8/3; 470 LV		40	40	6	0
Cook Political Report	7/26-8/2; 403 LV		48	45		+3
POS	7/23-7/29; 400 LV		46	45	4	+1
Bloomberg	7/24-7/28; 454 RV	5.0	43	43	10	0
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7/22-7/24; 435 LV		45	43	6	+2
Insider Advantage	7/15-7/16, 800 LV	3.5	50	40	7	+10
Pollster	Dates/Sample	Gap	Trump	Biden	Ken.	Gap
Final Average		4.6	47.4	42.8
Final Average (Inc. RFK)			46.1	41.0	6.1	5.1
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7/16-7/18; 412 LV		44	41	7	+3
Insider Advantage	7/15-7/16, 800 LV		49	42	(5)	+7
Emerson	7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV	+5	46	41
			43	40	7	+3
Rasmussen	7/5-7/12		50	45	5	+5
The Times/YouGov	7/4-7/12; 733 LV		47	42	3	+5
Morning Consult Bloomberg	7/1-7/4; 452 RV	+3	48	45
			45	39	6	+6
Emerson College	6/30-7/2; 1,000 RV	+6	47	41
Remington Research Group	6/28-6/30		47	40	?	+7
National Public Affairs	6/28 – 7/1; 817 LV	+10	49	39
			42	33	12	+9
OpenLabs	6/28-6/30		44	35	8	+9
P2 Insights	6/11-6/20; 650 LV		40	37	8	+3
Emerson	6/13-6/18; 1,000 RV	+3	46	43
			42	39	7	+3
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research	6/12 – 6/18; 600 LV	+3	48	45
			44	37	10	+7
Fox News: Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	6/1-6/3; 1,069 RV	+5	50	45
			45	40	7	+5
The Tyson Group	5/22-5/25; 601 LV	+3	47	44
			40	37	9	+3
Florida Atlantic University	5/19-5/21; 494 LV	+8	51	43
			46	40	8	+6
Iron Light Intelligence	5/17-5/21; 600 LV		37	34	15	+3
P2 Insights	5/13-5/21; 650 LV		41	40	9	+1
Prime Group	5/9-5/16; 468 RV	0	50	50
			44	43	10	+1
Bloomberg/MrnConsult	5/7-5/13; 459 RV	0	47	47
			44	39	7	+5
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group	5/6-5/13; 402 LV	+9	49	40
			43	35	10	+8
The New York Times/Siena College	4/28-5/9; 814 LV	+13	51	38
			44	30	11	+14
Emerson	4/25 – 4/29; 1000 RV	+2	51|45	49|44
			42	37	8	+5
Zogby	4/13-4/21; 517 LV	+6.5	50.3	43.8
Bloomberg/MrnConsult	4/8 – 4/13; 450 RV	+8	51	43
			48	34	7	+14
Rasmussen Reports & NumbersUSA	4/2-4/12; 869 LV		43	43	9	0
Wall Street Journal	3/17-3-24; 600 RV	+4	48	44
			37	33	15	+4
Echelon Insights	3/12-3/19; 400 LV	+7	51	44
Emerson	3/12-3/15; 1,000 RV	+2	51	49
			41	36	9	+5
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	3/8-3/15; 447 RV	+2	46	44
			42	36	11	+6
Noble Predictive Insights	2/27-3/5; 829 RV	+5	45	40
			40	33	11	+7
Emerson	2/16-2/19; 1,000 RV	+6	46	40
			44	34	6	+10
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	2/12-2/18; 445 RV	+6	48	42
			44	37	9	+7
FocalData	1/17-1/23; LV	+2	51	49
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	1/16-1/22; 457 RV	+8	48	40
			43	31	12	+12
Emerson	1/5–1/8; 1294 RV	+2	47	45
			42	39	5	+3
Change Research (D)	12/3-12/7/23; RV	+4	44	40
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	11/27-12/6/23; 451 RV	+3	47	44
			42	37	11	+5
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	10/30-11/7/23; 437 RV	+3	46	43
			39	35	11	+4
Emerson	10/30-11/4/23; 770 LV	+4	47	43
Siena College/NY Times	10/22-11/3/23; 611 LV	+11	52	41
			40	34	19	+6
Tarrance Group (R)	10/23-10/26/23; 600 LV		46	46
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	10/10-10/15/23; 503 RV	+3	43	46
CNN	10/6/23	+1	45	46

U.S. Senate:

	AVERAGE	43.0	47.2	4.2
Pollster	Dates/Sample	Brown	Rosen	Gap
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/12-10/14; 838 LV	41	46	+5
Rasmussen Reports	10/9-10/14; 748 LV	44	47	+3
Trafalgar Group	10/10-10/13; 1088 LV	43.1	47.5	+4.4
NRSC	10/13	43	48	+5
Emerson College	10/5-10/8; 900 LV	42	50	+8
RMG Research	9/30-10/3; 782 LV	40	56	+16
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/27-10/2; 514 LV	41	49	+7
InsiderAdvantage	9/29-9/30; 800 LV	42	49	+7
AtlasIntel	9/20-9/25; 858 LV	46	47.5	+1.5
Cook Political Report	9/19-9/25; 409 LV	40	53	+13
Rasmussen	9/19-9/22; 993 LV	40	50	+10
Remington Research Group	9/16-9/20; LV	41	47	+6
Redfield and Wilton	9/16-9/19; 652 LV	38	47	+9
Tarrance Group	9/16-9/19; 600 LV	41	47	+6
Emerson College	9/15-9/18; 895 LV	41	48	+7
Morning Consult	9/9-9/18; 474 LV	39	52	+13
Trafalgar Group	9/11-9/13; 1,079 LV	40	48	+8
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/6-9/9; 698 LV	39	47	+8
Morning Consult	8/30-9/8; 516 LV	40	50	+10
InsiderAdvantage	8/29-8/31; 800 LV	39	49	+10
CNN/SSRS	8/23-8/29; 626 LV	40	50	+10
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8/25-8/28; 490 LV	39	43	+4
Emerson College	8/25-8/28; 1,168 LV	40	50	+10
Fox News	8/23-8/26; 1026 RV	41	55	+14
Rasmussen Reports	8/13-8/18, 980 LVs	39	50	+11
NY Times/Siena	8/12-8/15; 677 LV	40	49	+9
Redfield and Wilton	8/12-8/15; 640 LV	37	41	+4
Redfield and Wilton	7/31-8/3; 470 LV	38	41	+3
Cook Political Report	7/26-8/2; 403 LV	36	54	+18
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7/22-7/24; 435 LV	40	45	+5
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7/16-7/18; 412 LV	37	41	+4
The Times/YouGov	7/4-7/12; 733 LV	41	47	+6
National Public Affairs	6/28 – 7/1; 817 LV	33	41	+8
Remington Research Group	6/28-6/30	46	48	+2
Emerson	6/13-6/18; 1,000 RV	38	50	+12
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research	6/12 – 6/18; 600 LV	42	47	+5
The Tyson Group	5/22-5/25; 601 LV	33	47	+14
Florida Atlantic University	5/19-5/21 494 LV	37	48	+11
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group	5/6-5/16; 402 LV	41	48	+7
The New York Times/Siena College	4/28-5/9; 814 LV	41	41	0
Emerson	4/25 – 4/29; 1000 RV	37	45	+8
Emerson College	3/12-3/15; 1,000 RV	39	41	+2
Noble Predictive Insights	2/27-3/5; 829 RV	35	41	+6
Emerson College	2/16-2/19; 1,000 RV	38	40	+2
Tarrance Group	10/23-10/26/23; 600 LV	40	45	+5