The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Presidential Polls – Arizona:

	AVERAGE		49.9	45.5	1.9	4.4
Pollster	Dates/Sample	MoE	Trump	Harris	Oth	Gap
AtlasIntel	11/3-11/4; 875 LV	3.0	51	45.9	1.5	+5.1
Victory Insights	11/2-11/3; 750 LV		49	48		+1
Trafalgar Group	11/1-11/3; 1,090 LV		49.2	47.1	1.6	+2.1
Patriot Polling	11/1-11/3; 801 RV		51	48		+3
AtlasIntel	11/1-11/2; 967 LV		51.9	45.1		+6.8
InsiderAdvantage	11/1-11/2; 800 LV		49	46		+3
Emerson College	10/30-11/2; 900 LV		50.8	48.7	0.5	+2.1
SoCal Strategies	10/30-10/31; 750 LV		50	49		+1
OnMessage	10/29-10/31; 800 LV		50	47		+3
AtlasIntel	10/30-10/31; 1,005 LV	3.0	50.8	45.9	1.6	+4.9
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/28-10/31; 652 LV		48	47	2	+1
The New York Times/Siena College	10/25-11/2; 1,025 LV		48	44	3	+3
Noble Predictive Insights	10/28-10/30; 775 LV	3.5	48	47		+1
YouGov The Times of London	10/25-10/31; 856 LV		50	49		+1
Data for Progress	10/25-10/30; 1,079 LV		48	47		+1
AtlasIntel	10/25-10/29; 1,458 LV	3.0	50.6	46.4	1.1	+4.2
Rasmussen Reports	10/25-10/29; 803 LV	3.0	48	46		+2
Mitchell Research & Communications	10/28; 610 LV		50	48	1	+2
Data Orbital	10/26-10/28; 550 LV		50	42	2	+8
RABA Research	10/28; 589 RV		43	45		+2
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/25-10/27; 901 LV		49	47	3	+2
Morning Consult	10/21-10/30; 666 LV		48	48		0
Trafalgar Group	10/24-10/26; 1,094 LV		48.1	46	2.1	+2.1
J.L. Partners	10/24-10/26; 500 LV		49	48	1	+1
CNN/SSRS	10/21-10/26; 781 LV		47	48		+1
Democracy Institute	10/22-10/24; 375 LV		51	46		+5
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/20-10/22; 710 LV		48	46	2	+2
InsiderAdvantage	10/19-10/20; 800 LV	3.5	49.5	47	1.3	+2.5
HighGround	10/19-10/20; 400 LV		47	46		+1
Marist College	10/17-10/22; 1,193 LV		50	49		+1
ActiVote	10/8-11/1; 400 LV		51	49		+2
Focaldata	10/3-11/1; 1,779 LV		48.7	47.6		+1.1
Bloomberg/MorningConsult	10/16-10/20; 915 LV	3.0	48.8	49.1		+0.3
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/16-10/18; 691 LV		49	46	2	+3
University of Arizona	10/12-10/20; 846 RV		45	46	3	+1
AtlasIntel	10/12-10/17; 1440 LV	3.0	49.2	48.6	1.3	+0.7
CCES/YouGov	10/1-10/25; 2,066 LV		51	47		+4
CBS/YouGov	10/11-10/16		51	48		+3
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/12-10/14; 1,141 LV		48	46	2	+2
NRSC	10/13		49	47		+2
Trafalgar Group	10/10-10/13; 1090 LV		47.5	46	2.9	+1.5
Morning Consult	10/6-10/15; 653 LV		48	47		+1
The New York Times/Siena College	10/7-10/10; 808 LV		50	45	1	+5
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates	10/6-10/9; 800 LV		49	46		+3
The Washington Post/George Mason University	9/30-10/15; 580 LV		49	46		+3
Emerson College	10/5-10/8; 1,000 LV		51	48		+3
SoCal Strategies	10/5-10/7; 735 LV		47.8	48.7		+0.9
RMG Research	9/30-10/02; 783 LV		50	46		+4
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/27-10/2; 555 LV		48	47	2	+1
OnMessage	9/24-10/2; 500 LV		47	45		+2
AARP	9/24-10/1; 600 LV	4.0	49	47	1	+2
InsiderAdvantage	9/29-9/30; 800 LV	3.0	49	48		+1
Emerson	9/27-9/28; 920 LV		50	47		+3
HighGround	9/26-9/29; 500 LV		45.4	47.6		+2.2
National Research	9/25-9/29; 600 LV		46	47		+1
Global Strategy Group/North Star Opinion Research	9/23-9/29; 400 LV		47	47	3	0
AtlasIntel	9/20-9/26; 946 LV	3.0	49.7	48.6		+1.1
Morning Consult Bloomberg	9/19-9/25; 926 LV		46	49	3	+3
Cook Political Report	9/19-9/25; 409 LV		48	50		+2
Suffolk University	9/19-9/24; 500 LV		48	42	2	+6
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	9/20-9/24; 764 LV		51	48		+3
Marist College	9/19 –9/24; 1,264 LV		50	49		+1
ActiVote	9/6-10/8; 400 LV		51	49		+2
Rasmussen	9/19-9/22; 1,030 LV	3.0	49	47		+2
NY Times/Siena	9/17 – 9/21; 713 LV		48	43	4	+5
Redfield and Wilton	9/16-9/19; 789 LV		47	47	2	0
Emerson College	9/15-9/18; 975 LV		49.8	48.7		+1.1
Morning Consult	9/9-9/18; 862 LV		47	48		+1
Trafalgar Group	9/11-9/12; 1,088 LV		47.1	45.5		+1.6
Focaldata	9/3-9/16; 635 LV		48.2	49.8		+1.6
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/6-9/9; 765 LV		47	46	2	+1
Data Orbital	9/7-9/9; 550 LV		46.2	46		+0.2
TIPP Insights	9/3-9/5; 949 LV		48	48	2	0
Morning Consult	8/30-9/8; 901 LV		49	47		+2
Patriot Polling	9/1-9/3; 804 RV		49	47		+2
InsiderAdvantage	8/29-8/31; 800 LV		49	48		+1
CNN/SSRS	8/23-8/29; 682 LV		49	44	3	+5
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8/25-8/28; 530 LV		46	45	2	+1
Emerson College	8/25-8/28;720 LV		51	48		+3
Morning Consult	8/23-8/27; 776 LV		48	48		0
Fox News	8/23-8/26; 1014 RV		49	50		+1
Spry Strategies	8/14-8/20; 600 LV		49	48		+1
Rasmussen Reports	8/13-8/17; 1,187 LV		47	45		+2
Noble Predictive Insights	8/12-8/16; 1,003 RV.		47	44		+3
Redfield and Wilton	8/12-8/15; 640 LV		44	43	7	+1
Focal Data	8/6-8/16; 651 LV		51	49		+2
Strategies 360	8/7-8/14; 400 RVs		46	47		+1
NY Times/Siena	8/8-8/15; 677 LV		43	47	5	+4
Trafalgar Group	8/6-8/8; 1,000 LV		48	47	4	+1
Navigator Research	7/31-8/8; 600 LV		49	46		+3
HighGround	7/30-8/5; 500 LV	4.38	42	44	5	+2
Redfield and Wilton	7/31-8/3; 567 LV		43	44	4	+1
Iron Light Intelligence	7/29-8/5; 600 LV	4.0	43	43	7	0
Peak Insights	7/31-8/1; 800 LV	3.0	44	42	11	+2
PPP	7/29-7/30; 618 V	3.9	49	47		+2
BSG/GS Strategy Group	7/26-8/2; 435 LV		46	46	7	+4
POS	7/23-7/29; 400 LV		48	43	4	+5
Bloomberg	7/24-7/28; 804 RV	3.0	44	48	8	+4
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7/22-7/24; 510 LV		46	43	5	+3
Emerson	7/22-7/23; 800 RV	3.4	48	40	8	+8
Public Policy Polling	7/19-7/20; 736 RV		46	40	8	+6
InsiderAdvantage	7/15-7/16; 800 LV	3.5	48	42	7	+6
Public Policy Polling	7/10-7/11; 596 RV		52	44		+8
Pollster	Dates/Sample	Gap	Trump	Biden	Ken.	Gap
Final Average		6.4	49.0	42.5
Final Average (Inc. RFK)			46.8	39.9	5.8	6.9
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7/16-7/18		44	40	7	+4
Emerson	7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV	+7	47	40
			46	36	6	+10
Insider Advantage	7/15-7/16; 800 LV		49	44	(4)	+5
Rasmussen	7/5-7/12		50	41	7	+9
The Times/YouGov	7/4-7/12; 900 RV		46	37	5	+9
Public Policy Polling	7/10-7/11; 596 RV	+8	52	44
J.L. Partners	7/10-7/11; 513 LV		46	40	4	+6
Redfield and Wilton	7/8-7/10; 506 RV		43	39	7	+4
Morning Consult Bloomberg	7/1-7/5; 781 RV	+3	48	45
			45	38	9	+7
Emerson College	6/30-7/2; 1,000 RV	+4	46	42
Remington Research Group	6/29-7/1		49	42	?	+7
1983 Labs	6/28-6/30; 492 LV		48	33	8	+15
OpenLabs	6/28-6/30		45	36	(8)	+9
North Star Opinion Research	6/17-6/20; 600 LV	+6	48	42
			42	32	13	+10
P2 Insights	6/11-6/20; 650 LV		47	36	7	+11
Emerson	6/13-6/18; 1,000 RV	+4	47	43
			43	39	8	+4
Rasmussen	6/11-6/13; 750 LV	+7	47	40
			41	37	10	+4
Redfield & Wilton	6/8-6/11; 430 LV		40	38	6	+2
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research	5/28-6/4; 600 LV	+6	50	44
			45	37	11	+8
Fox News: Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	6/1-6/3; 1,095 RV	+5	51	46
			46	41	8	+5
Florida Atlantic University	5/19-5/21; 501 LV	+2	43	45
			43	39	7	+4
P2 Insights	5/13-5/21; 650 LV		41	38	9	+3
YouGov / CBS News	5/10-5/16; 1,192 LV	+5	52	47
Prime Group	5/9-5/16; 490 RV	+2	51	49
			44	40	11	+4
Noble Predictive Insights	5/7 – 5/14; 1003 RV	+3	44	41
			43	36	8	+7
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group	5/6-5/13; 527 LV	+1	45	44
			41	37	10	+4
Bloomberg/MrnConsult	5/7-5/13; 795 RV	+5	49	44
			45	40	7	+5
The New York Times/Siena College	4/28-5/9; 626 LV	+6	49	43
			44	35	8	+9
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	5/2-5/4; 529 LV		44	42	7	+2
Data Orbital	4/27–4/29; 550 LV		38.1	38.8	13.5	+1
Emerson	4/25 – 4/29; 1000 RV	+4	52|48	48|44
			44	40	9	+4
Kaplan Strategies	4/20-4/21; 874 RV	+4	47	43
Zogby	4/13-4/21; 630 LV	+11.3	51.3	39.7
Bloomberg/MrnConsult	4/8–4/13; 801 RV	+7	49	42
			46	40	7	+6
Tyson Group	4/10-4/11; 600 LV		39	33	12	+6
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	4/7-4/11; 400 LV	+4	48	44
			42	37	10	+5
Bullfinch Group	3/29-4/3; 600 RV		44	38	13*	+6
RABA Research	3/28-3/31; 503 RV	+3	39	36
Wall Street Journal	3/17-3/24; 600 RV	+5	47	42
			39	34	11	+5
Echelon Insights	3/12-3/19; 401 LV	+6	51	46
North Star Opinion Research	3/14-3/17; 600 LV	+4	46	42
			37	33	18	+4
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	3/14-3/17; 600 RV		44	41	7	+3
Emerson	3/12-3/15; 1,000 RV	+4	52	48
			46	38	7	+8
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	3/8-3/14; 796 RV	+5	48	43
			43	37	12	+6
Fox News	3/7-3/11; 1,121 RV	+4	49	45
			43	39	10	+4
Rasmussen	2/21-2/26; 1,001 LV	+7	47	40
Emerson	2/16-2/19; 1,000 RV	+3	46	43
			43	37	8	+6
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	2/12-2/18; 798 RV	+6	49	43
			45	36	9	+9
J.L. Partners/Kari Lake	1/29-2/1; 500 RV	+4	45	41
FocalData	1/17-1/23; LV		50	50
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	1/16-1/21; 800 RV	+3	47	44
			43	35	10	+8
Emerson	January	+4	46	42
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	12/28-12/30/23; 808 LV		41	35	10	+6
The Bullfinch Group	12/14-12/18/23; 600 RV	+10	50	40
VCreek/AMG (R)	12/1-12/8/23; 694 LV	+5	46	41
			40	35	16	+5
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	11/27-12/6/23; 796 RV	+4	46	42
			40	37	10	+3
J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com	11/27-12/1/23; 550 LV	+5	48	43
			39	34	7	+5
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	11/27-11/29/23; 1,103 LV		40	33	10	+7
Tulchin Research (D)	11/13-11/20/23; 800 LV	0	42	42
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	10/30-11/7/23; 800 RV	+4	46	42
			40	36	11	+4
Emerson	10/30-11/4/23; 778 LV	+2	46	44
Siena College/NY Times	10/22-11/3/23; 603 LV	+5	49	44
			34	34	24	0
Noble Predictive Insights	10/25-10/31/23; 1,010 RV	+8	46	38
Morning Consult/Bloomberg	10/10-10/15/23; 804 RV	+4	47	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/9/2023	+5	44	39
			42	39	8	+3
On Message (R)	9/24/23	+4	50	46
Emerson	8/4/23	+2	45	43

U.S. Senate:

	AVERAGE	43.3	48.8	5.0
Pollster	Dates/Sample	Lake	Gallego	Gap
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	10/12-10/14; 1,141 LV	42	47	+5
NRSC	10/13	45	49	+4
Trafalgar Group	10/10-10/13; 1090 LV	43.9	47.6	+3.7
The New York Times/Siena College	10/7-10/10; 808 LV	41	48	+7
SoCal Strategies	10/5-10/7; 735 LV	39	51	+12
RMG Research	9/30-10/2; 783 LV	42	52	+10
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/27-10/2; 555 LV	42	48	+6
AARP	9/24-10/1; 600 LV	44	51	+7
InsiderAdvantage	9/29-9/30; 800 LV	43	50	+7
Emerson	9/27-9/28; 920 LV	41	52	+11
National Research	9/25-9/29; 600 LV	42	48	+6
AtlasIntel	9/20-9/26; 946 LV	45.7	49.8	+4.1
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research	9/20-9/24; 764 LV	42	55	+13
Cook Political Report	9/19-9/25; 409 LV	41	54	+13
Suffolk University	9/19-9/24; 500 LV	41	47	+6
Marist College	9/19 –9/24; 1264 LV	44	54	+10
Rasmussen	9/19-9/22; 1030 LV	45	47	+2
NY Times/Siena	9/17 – 9/21; 713 LV	43	49	+6
Redfield and Wilton	9/16-9/19; 789 LV	41	46	+5
Emerson College	9/15-9/18; 868 LV	42	48	+6
Morning Consult	9/9-9/18; 862 LV	39	53	+14
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9/6-9/9; 765 LV	42	48	+6
Morning Consult	8/30-9/8; 901 LV	41	49	+8
CNN/SSRS	8/23-8/29; 682 LV	44	47	+3
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8/25-8/28; 530 LV	37	42	+5
Emerson College	8/25-8/28; 720 LV	42	49	+7
Fox News	8/23-8/26; 1014 RV	41	56	+15
Rasmussen Reports	8/13-8/17; 1,187 LV	40	48	+8
Redfield and Wilton	8/12-8/15; 640 LV	37	41	+4
NY Times/Siena	8/8-8/15; 677 LV	42	51	+9
WPA Intel	8/11-8/13; 600 LV	46	48	+2
HighGround	7/30-8/5; 500 LV	39	50	+11
Redfield and Wilton	7/31-8/3; 567 LV	36	42	+6
Peak Insights	7/31-8/1; 800 LV	46	46	0
BSG/GS Strategy Group	7/26-8/2; 435 LV	42	50	+9
Emerson	7/22-7/23; 800 RV	42	46	+4
J.L. Partners	7/10-7/11; 513 LV	44	43	+1
Public Policy Polling	7/10-7/11; 596 RV	47	50	+3
The Times/YouGov	7/4-7/12; 900 RV	42	49	+7
Remington Research Group	6/29-7/1	47	47	0
North Star Opinion Research	6/17-6/20; 600 LV	38	39	+1
Emerson	6/13-6/18; 1,000 RV	41	45	+4
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research	5/28-6/4; 600 LV	45	48	+3
Florida Atlantic University	5/19-5/21; 494 LV	37	48	+11
YouGov / CBS News	5/10-5/16; 1,183 LV	36	49	+13
Noble Predictive Insights	5/7-5/14; 1003 RV	36	46	+10
BSG/GS Strategy Group	4/6-5/13; 527 LV	41	46	+5
The New York Times/Siena College	5/28-5/9; 626 LV	43	46	+3
Data Orbital	4/27–4/29; 550 LV	43.9	48.1	+4
Emerson	4/25–4/29; 1000 RV	43	45	+2
The Tyson Group	4/10-4/11; 600 LV	34	39	+5
RABA Research	3/28-3/31; 503 RV	28	36	+8
Emerson College	3/12-3/15; 1,000 RV	49	51	+2
Rasmussen Reports	2/21-2/26; 1,001 LV	45	42	+3
Emerson College	2/16-2/19; 1,000 RV	39	46	+7
Noble Predictive Insights	2/6-2/13; 1,002 RV	37	47	+10
J.L. Partners	1/29-2/1; 500 RV	46	44	+2
Public Policy Polling	1/5-1/6; 590 V	46	45	+1