The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

NEW JERSEY – United 2024 Trump 43 Biden 41 Four Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 38 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 U.S. Senate: Bashaw 33 Kim 35 Menendez 6 7/1-7/2; 477 RV

Using the data from 538, here is the updated chart comparing Biden against past presidents running for re-election, on day 1,261 of the first term:

According to a new poll from National Public Affairs: NEVADA – National Public Affairs Trump 49 Biden 39 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 33 Kennedy 12 West 3 Stein 2 U.S. Senate: Brown 33 Rosen 41 June 28 – July 1 | 817 LV

According to Democrat polling firm OpenLabs in a poll that appears to be a push poll to pressure Biden to drop out, taken June 28-30, the three days after the debate debacle: State Trump Biden Other Und. AZ 45 36 8 11 CO 39 40 9 13 GA 47 37 6 11 ME 40 40…

According to a pre-debate poll done by the Bullfinch Group: PENNSYLVANIA – The Bullfinch Group Trump 44 Biden 45 Other 7 Undecided 5 U.S. Senate: McCormick 36 Casey 48 Other 5 Undecided 10 6/14-6/19; 800 RV

PENNSYLVANIA – Cygnal Trump 48 Biden 44 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 West 2 U.S. Senate: McCormick 42 Casey 46 6/27-6/28; 800 LV

According to a new poll from Saint Anselm taken AFTER the debate: NEW HAMPSHIRE – Saint Anselm Trump 44 (+5) Biden 42 (-7) Kennedy 4 (-4) Stein 1 West 1 Oliver 0 June 28-29; 1,746 RV

According to a pre-debate internal poll (1892 Polling) release by Senate candidate Nella Domenici: NEW MEXICO – 1892 Polling Trump 47 Biden 49 Six Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 43 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 Oliver 2 Terry 1 U.S. Senate: Domenici 42.2 Heinrich 45.5 Undecided 9.7 6/19-6/24; 600 LV

According to new poll from Torchlight Strategies: MONTANA – Torchlight Strategies Trump 51 Biden 35 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 47 Tester 41 6/22-6/26; 649 RV

According to a new poll from EPIC-MRA MICHIGAN – EPIC-MRA Trump 49 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 38 Kennedy 10 Stein 2 West 2 U.S. Senate: Rogers 42 Slotkin 44 June 21-26; 600 LV

According to new coefficient poll: NEW JERSEY – Co-Efficient Trump 41 Biden 40 Kennedy/Third Party 7 Undecided 13 U.S. Senate: Kim 39 Bashaw 33 Menendez 3 Undecided 25 June 26-27; 810 LV

According to Public Opinion Strategies: NORTH DAKOTA – Public Opinion Strategies Trump 62 Biden 28 U.S. Senate: Cramer 65 Christiansen 28 U.S. House: Fedorchak 64 Hammer 25 Governor: Armstrong 61 Piepkorn 22 June 15-19; 500 LV

According to a pollster called P2 Insights: ARIZONA – P2 Insights Trump 47 (+6) Biden 36 (-2) Kennedy 7 (-2) 6/11-6/20; 650 LV GEORGIA – P2 Insights Trump 45 (+2) Biden 35 (-4) Kennedy 6 (-1) 6/11-6/20; 650 LV MICHIGAN – P2 Insights Trump 43 (-2) Biden 40 (+3) Kennedy 8 (+1) 6/11-6/20; 650 LV…

According to the University of Texas – Tyler TEXAS – University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research Trump 48 Biden 43 Five Candidates: Trump 47 Biden 41 Kennedy 8 Oliver 3 Stein 1 U.S. Senate: Cruz 45 Allred 42 Brown 5 6/11-6/20; 931 LV

According to a new Marquette poll: WISCONSIN – Marquette University Law School Trump 49 (-2) Biden 51 (+2) Five Candidates: Trump 44 (+2) Biden 42 (+1) Kennedy 7 (-5) West 3 Stein 2 Oliver 1 U.S. Senate: Hovde 47 Baldwin 52 6/12-6/20; 784 LV

I had predicted they would show Biden 48, Trump 44. I was wrong. New from Quinnipiac: Trump 49Biden 45 Trump 43Biden 37RFK 11Stein 2C West 2Oliver 1 –DW

According to a newly released poll from Fabrizio Lee & Associates MONTANA – Fabrizio Lee Trump 54 Biden 36 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 48 Tester 48 Three Candidates: Sheehy 46 Tester 43 Daoud 4 6/3-6/5; 500 LV

According to an AARP commissioned poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D). The press release was very poorly written up, without even providing all the data for the actual candidates who are on the ballot or expect to be on the ballot. I will revise the post if they release…

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia and Embold Research GEORGIA – AJC/Univ. of Georgia Trump 43 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Oliver 1 6/11-6/20; 1,000 LV RHODE ISLAND – Embold Research Trump 33 Biden 40 Kennedy 12 6/5-6/14; 1,450 LV

Civiqs (D) has been providing job approval data, by state, for some time now: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true Morning Consult has now published their own map of Biden job approval: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/joe-biden-approval-rating-by-state This allows for an averaging of the net job approval from the two polls, which I provide below, with the battleground states in bold typeface: Wyoming -59West…

According to new poll by Public Policy Polling (D): MARYLAND – PPP Trump 30 Biden 56 Undecided 14 U.S. Senate: Hogan 40 Alsobrooks 48 Five Candidates: Hogan 34 Alsobrooks 45 Scott 3 Osuchukwu 1 Wallace 1 Undecided 16 6/16-6/20; 635 V

According to North Star Opinion Research, who shows an increase for Trump against their poll done in March. Furthermore, Stein and Oliver are on the ballot there, and Kennedy expects to make it: ARIZONA – North Star Opinion Research Trump 48 (+2) Biden 42 Five Candidates: Trump 42 (+5) Biden 32 (-1) Kennedy 13 (-5)…

According to a new Emerson College poll MISSOURI – Emerson Trump 53 (Lean: 57) Biden 40 (Lean: 43) Undecided 7 Five Candidates: Trump 50 Biden 35 Kennedy 7 West 1 Stein 1 U.S. Senate: Hawley 47 Kunce 38 Other 5 Undecided 10 6/17-6/19; 1,000 RV

According to Public Opinion Strategies poll: MONTANA – Public Opinion Strategies Trump 57 Biden 37 U.S. Senate Sheehy 46 Tester 46 6/11-6/13; 500 LV

According to new polls from Emerson College: ARIZONA – Emerson Trump 47.2 (-1) | Lean: 52 Biden 42.7 (-1) | Lean: 48 Undecided 10 Five Candidates: Trump 42.7 Biden 39.3 Kennedy 7.7 West 0.7 Stein 1.2 Undecided 8.4 U.S. Senate Lake 41 Gallego 45 Undecided 14 June 13-18; 1,000 RV GEORGIA – Emerson Trump 45.4…

According to a newly released poll from the University of Texas: TEXAS – University of Texas Trump 46 Biden 39 Other 9 Six Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 34 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 West 2 Oliver 0 U.S. Senate: Cruz 45 Allred 34 5/31-6/9; 1,200 RV

According to Siena College: NEW YORK – Siena Trump 39 Biden 47 Other 5 6/12-6/13; 805 RV

According to PPP (D) NEW MEXICO – PPP Heinrich 47 Domenici 40 June 13-14; 555 V