The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to FAU / Main Street Research GEORIGIA – FAU Trump 49 Biden 43 With RFK: Trump 46 Biden 40 Kennedy ? 7/12-7/15; 981 RV VIRGINIA – FAU Trump 42 Biden 47 Likely voters, after Assassination Attempt: Trump 44 Biden 44 With RFK: (no after 7/13 numbers) Trump 39 Biden 42 Kennedy 11 7/12-7/15; 918…

According to a PPP poll of ‘voters’ that stressed the importance of the affordable healthcare act and was taken prior to the shooting on Saturday. WISCONSIN – PPP Trump 46 Biden 47 7/11-7/12; 653 V

According to Insider Advantage, in the first state poll taken entirely AFTER Trump was shot in PA on Saturday: GEORGIA – Insider Advantage Trump 47 Biden 44 In case of Demented Incumbent, break glass: Trump 47 Harris 37 July 15-16; 800 LV

According to Virginia Commonwealth University. Also new round of polling from the UK firm Redfield and Wilton: VIRGINIA – VCU Trump 39 Biden 36 U.S. Senate: Cao 38 Kaine 49 6/24-7/3; 809 A PENNSYLVANIA Trump 45 Biden 40 Kennedy 6 Other 2 7/8-7/10; 891 RV GEORGIA Trump 46 Biden 40 Kennedy 6 Other 2 7/8-7/10;…

According to Cygnal: IOWA – Cygnal Trump 51 Biden 39 7/8-7/9; 600 LV

According to The Times/YouGov: ARIZONA – The Times/YouGov Trump 44 Biden 37 Kennedy 5 Stein 2 West 1 U.S. Senate: Lake 41 Gallego 48 July 4-12; 900 RV GEORGIA – The Times/YouGov Trump 44 Biden 40 Kennedy 5 Stein 1 West 1 July 4-12; 1,000 RV MICHIGAN – The Times/YouGov Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy…

According to NY Times / Siena PENNSYLVANIA – NY Times/Siena Trump 48 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 West 1 U.S. Senate: McCormick 42 Casey 50 July 9-12; 872 LV VIRGINIA – NY Times/Siena Trump 45 Biden 48 Five Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 West…

According to Targoz Market Research and what Trump has told Bret Baier: TENNESSEE – Targoz Market Research Trump 58 Biden 28 Kennedy 5 June 20-July 1; 942 LV

According to MRG/Detroit News: MICHIGAN – MRG Trump 39 Biden 36 Other 14 Undecided 11 7/11-7/13; 600 RV

Several states have very limited polling.

According to a new poll from North Star Opinion Research: WISCONSIN – North Star Opinion Research Trump 46 (+1) Biden 44 (-1) Five Candidates: Trump 38 (+1) Biden 36 (=) Kennedy 11 (-2) Oliver 2 Stein 3 (-1) In case of Demented Incumbent, Break Glass: Trump 48 Harris 47 U.S. Senate: Hovde 41 (+1) Baldwin…

New Marist poll shows Biden +2, compared to pre-debate tie. National Poll Marist Trump 48 (-1) Biden 50 (+1) 3 Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 42 Kennedy 8 Other 5 July 9-10; 1,174 RV

According to a new poll by SoCal Research. They did not ask about Kennedy or other candidates, and they didn’t bother to ask about the senate race: VIRGINIA – SoCal Research Trump 44 Biden 47 In Case of Demented Incumbent, break glass: Trump 47 Harris 47 July 6-11; 1,000 RV

According to a new poll by the University of Houston” TEXAS – University of Houston Trump 49 Biden 40 Kennedy 5 Stein 2 U.S. Senate: Cruz 47 Allred 44 Brown 3 6/20-7/1; 1,484 LV

According to Remington Research Group: MONTANA Sheehy 50 Tester 45 ARIZONA Lake 47 Gallego 47 WISCONSIN Hovde 48 Baldwin 48 OHIO Moreno 44 Brown 50 PENNSYLVANIA McCormick 48 Casey 49 MICHIGAN Rogers 43 Slotkin 47 NEVADA Brown 46 Rosen 48 TEXAS Cruz 53 Allred 43 June 28-30; 600 LV per state

According to post-debate polling by 1983 Labs (yes, I have never heard of them either): ARIZONA Trump 48 Biden 33 Kennedy 8 Oliver 2 PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46 Biden 41 Kennedy 3 Oliver 1 MICHIGAN Trump 45 Biden 41 Kennedy 5 Oliver 1 June 28-30 | 1,686 LV (3 states)

According to new AARP poll done by Fabrizio Lee and Impact Research: WISCONSIN – Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research Trump 50 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 44 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Stein 3 Oliver 1 U.S. Senate: Hovde 45 Baldwin 50 June 28-July 2; 600 LV

This according to new state polling by Bloomberg/Morning Consult: Arizona Trump 48, Biden 45 Trump 45, Biden 38, Kennedy 9, Stein 0, West 1 Nevada Trump 48, Biden 43 Trump 45, Biden 39, Kennedy 6, West 2, Stein 0 Wisconsin Trump 44, Biden 47 Trump 39, Biden 41, Kennedy 10, West 1, Stein 1 Michigan Trump 43, Biden 48 Biden 45, Trump 39, Kennedy 6, West 2, Stein 1 Pennsylvania Trump 51, Biden 44 Trump 44, Biden 41, Kennedy 7, Stein 1, West 1 North Carolina Trump 46, Biden 43 Trump 42, Biden 40, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 1 Georgia Trump 47, Biden 46 Trump 44, Biden 42, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 0

Prediction – Biden supporters will say he saved his campaign, people who want Biden to drop out will say it proves he should, and Trump supporters will say Trump should beat anybody. Trump will just talk about Trump.

According to Remington Research Group. Please note that the numbers below are incomplete. They polled the full field including Kennedy, Stein, and West, but only released the numbers for Trump and Biden. They also polled the senate races, but would say only that AZ and WI were tied, Republicans ahead in MT and TX, while…

NEW JERSEY – United 2024 Trump 43 Biden 41 Four Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 38 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 U.S. Senate: Bashaw 33 Kim 35 Menendez 6 7/1-7/2; 477 RV

Using the data from 538, here is the updated chart comparing Biden against past presidents running for re-election, on day 1,261 of the first term:

According to a new poll from National Public Affairs: NEVADA – National Public Affairs Trump 49 Biden 39 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 33 Kennedy 12 West 3 Stein 2 U.S. Senate: Brown 33 Rosen 41 June 28 – July 1 | 817 LV

According to Democrat polling firm OpenLabs in a poll that appears to be a push poll to pressure Biden to drop out, taken June 28-30, the three days after the debate debacle: State Trump Biden Other Und. AZ 45 36 8 11 CO 39 40 9 13 GA 47 37 6 11 ME 40 40…

According to a pre-debate poll done by the Bullfinch Group: PENNSYLVANIA – The Bullfinch Group Trump 44 Biden 45 Other 7 Undecided 5 U.S. Senate: McCormick 36 Casey 48 Other 5 Undecided 10 6/14-6/19; 800 RV