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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.


  • Good Friday for those who Observe it
  • No Trouble for GOP in Florida
  • Breaking: Oak Island Treasure Found!
  • Hochul up 13 in New York
  • Monday Morning
  • 2024 Election Polling Grades
  • 2024 Polling Aggregator
  • Walt’s List of Trump’s Achievements

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

OHTXMIGANHMEMNNC
Gap+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+5.6+7.0+7.5
Count5051494847464544
  • Biden +3 in Pennsylvania with Casey up 8

    According to a new poll from Quinnipiac University whose last poll of PA in 2020 found Biden ahead 51 to 44 over Trump. This new poll was taken Aug. 8-12 against1,738 LVs. PENNSYLVANIA Trump 45 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: McCormick 44 Casey 52

    August 14, 2024
  • Trump up 14 points in Montana

    According to same American Pulse Research & Polling poll that also showed Sheehy up 6 points. Aug. 10-12, 538 RV: MONTANA Trump 52 Harris 38 Other 8

    August 14, 2024
  • Sheehy starting to grow lead in MT senate race

    According to a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 538 RVs taken Aug. 10-12: MONTANA Sheehy 51 Tester 45

    August 14, 2024
  • Trump up 8 and Scott up 10 in Florida

    According to new polling by McLaughlin and Associates taken 8/6-8/8 against 800 likely voters. FLORIDA Trump 52 Harris 44 Kennedy 3 U.S. Senate: Scott 52 Mucarsel-Powell 42

    August 13, 2024
  • Trump up 6.6 in Texas

    according to a new poll by ActiVote done against only 400 likely voters, and a long span of time, 7/31-8/13, and it has a 4.9 MoE. TEXAS Trump 53.3 Harris 46.7

    August 13, 2024
  • Trump up 5 in Florida

    According to Suffolk University USA Today/Suffolk poll taken 8/7-8/11 against 500 likely voters. This same pollster found the race in Florida tied in 2020. FLORIDA Trump 47 Harris 42 Others 7

    August 13, 2024
  • Moreno within 5 in OH Senate race

    According to a new poll from ActiVote taken over a long span of 7/20-8/12 against only 400 Likely voters. This race has been tightening, with the last four polls in a row ranging from a 4-6 point Brown lead. OHIO Moreno 47 Brown 52

    August 12, 2024
  • Rasmussen not playing along with the narrative

    At Rasmussen reports, Mark Mitchell has been mocking other pollsters for their sudden stoppage in releasing new polls. Will see what happens when they finally post something. Meanwhile, here are the numbers nationally, according to Rasmussen:

    August 12, 2024
  • Sunday. Bloody Sunday.

    Best U2 song.

    August 11, 2024
  • Saturday Night – Sunday Morning Open Thread

    August 10, 2024
  • Its all over in the Rust Belt according to the NY Times/Siena College

    Polling by Siena College done August 6-9 against likely voters Trump trails head to head 46 to 50 in all three states, and with the others included: WI: Harris 49, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0 MI: Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0 PA: Harris 46, Trump 44, Kennedy…

    August 10, 2024
  • Trump with edge in WI, PA, NV, NC, and AZ and Harris with edge in MI

    According to new polling from Trafalgar Group (NV, NC, AZ, and PA, 1000 LV each) and InsiderAdvantage (MI and WI, 800 LV each) from August 6-8: Trump Harris ARIZONA 48 47 NEVADA 48 45 NORTH CAROLINA 49 45 PENNSYLVANIA 46 44 WISCONSIN 49 48 MICHIGAN 47 49

    August 9, 2024
  • Is the ‘Yay our new candidate isn’t demented’ bump for Harris now over?

    Perhaps so. The chart below tracked daily the average of all national polls, and it seems now the numbers are settling back into the same range of Trump vs. Biden prior to Biden’s debate debacle.

    August 9, 2024
  • Trump up 3 in North Carolina

    According to a new poll from Cygnal taken Aug. 4-5 against 600 LV with a MoE of 3.99 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47 Harris 44 Kennedy 4 Oliver 1 Stein 0 Terry 0

    August 9, 2024
  • Waiting for more rain and the last thread was getting long.

    August 9, 2024
  • Trump with Edge in stale poll of GA

    According to AARP (Fabrizio Ward-R / Impact Research-D) poll taken 7/24-7/ 31 against 600 LV: GEORGIA Trump 46 Harris 44 Kennedy 4 West 2 Stein 1

    August 8, 2024
  • Trump up 15 in Montana

    Sheehy up 2 in this new Emerson College poll taken August 5-6 against 1000 RVs: MONTANA Trump 55 Harris 40 Five Candidates: Trump 54 Harris 39 Kennedy 5 Stein 0 West 0 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 48 Tester 46

    August 8, 2024
  • Here comes the rain again…

    August 8, 2024
  • Keep talking.

    August 7, 2024
  • Trump with narrow leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania

    According to new Democracy Institute Polling done for Daily Express US, sampled on August 5-6, against 400 LV in each state: MICHIGAN Trump 45 Harris 42 Kennedy 5 West 3 Stein 1 Oliver 1 PENNSYLVANIA Trump 45 Harris 43 Kennedy 6 West 1 Stein 1 Oliver 1 WISCONSIN Trump 46 Harris 42 Kennedy 4 West…

    August 7, 2024
  • Tight race in WISCONSIN

    According to new polling by Marquette 7/24-8/1; 801 LV: WISCONSIN Trump 45 Harris 46 Kennedy 6 Oliver 1 Stein 1 U.S. Senate: Hovde 47 Baldwin 52

    August 7, 2024
  • New Thread because I am tired of scrolling.

    August 7, 2024
  • Pennsylvania Average Polling

    There have been 19 polls of PA, Trump vs Harris, far more than any other state. 13 of them were taken AFTER the demented incumbent dropped out. This allows for a day to day chart showing the number for each candidate. The peak days for Harris seem to coincide with Harris’ peak in national Rasmussen…

    August 6, 2024
  • Close battlegrounds but an Electoral College win for Trump

    According to new polls from UK polling firm Redfield and Wilton, 8,229 RV taken 7/31-8/3: PENNSYLVANIA🟥 Trump: 46%🟦 Harris: 44%🟨 RFK Jr: 3%—GEORGIA🟥 Trump: 46%🟦 Harris: 44%🟨 RFK Jr: 3%🟪 Other: 1%—ARIZONA🟦 Harris: 44%🟥 Trump: 43%🟨 RFK Jr: 4%🟪 Other: 1%—NEVADA🟦 Harris: 40%🟥 Trump: 40%🟨 RFK Jr: 5%🟪 Other: 1%—MICHIGAN🟥 Trump: 42%🟦 Harris: 41%🟨 RFK…

    August 6, 2024
  • Harris up only 12 in New York

    according to a new Siena College poll taken 7/28 – 8/1 against 1199 LV with a MoE of 4.0: NEW YORK Trump 39 Harris 53 Five Candidates: Trump 37 Harris 49 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 West 1

    August 6, 2024
  • Another 125+ post thread. HHR is heating up.

    August 6, 2024
  • 125+ posts? Time for a new thread.

    August 5, 2024
  • Tie in Pennsylvania

    According to top rated pollster Fabrizio Lee, July 29 – August 1; 600 LV: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 48 Harris 48 Three Candidates: Trump 45 Harris 45 Kennedy 4 Other 2

    August 5, 2024
  • TIPP poll unchanged compared to Biden

    Their prior poll was Biden +2 taken just before his debate debacle. 7/31/8/2; 1,236 RV NATIONAL POLL: TIPP/I&I 🟦 Harris: 46%🟥 Trump: 45% 🟦 Harris: 44%🟥 Trump: 42%🟨 RFK Jr: 7%

    August 5, 2024
  • Lazy like Sunday…afternoon.

    August 4, 2024
  • So I woke up in the middle of the night with 2 EMTs and 3 cops in my bedroom….

    My blood sugar was so low my wife said I had a seizure and was unresponsive with my eyes wide open. Ambulance took me to the hospital for IVs of glucose and fluids. EKG was normal. Home by 6:30 am. I just feel bad my wife had to lose sleep over it.

    August 3, 2024
  • Saturday Eve!

    August 2, 2024
  • Trump with edge in Georgia

    According to a new poll from Insider Advantage / Trafalgar Group done July 29-30 among likely voters. Notice the support for other candidates has all but dried up: GEORGIA – Trafalgar / IA Trump 49 Harris 47 Other 2

    August 2, 2024
  • No polls? No problem. Open Thread Friday!

    August 2, 2024
  • Thursday Overnight Thread

    August 1, 2024
  • Harris same as Biden in OHIO

    According to AARP polling done by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D), 7/23-28; 600 LV OHIO Trump 52 Harris 42 Other 2 Other Candidates: Trump 48 Harris 39 Kennedy 9 Other 2 U.S. Senate: Moreno 42 Brown 46

    August 1, 2024
  • Trump in Trouble

    According to Republican pollster POS. 400 LV each state, 7/23-7/29. POStrategies for @CompCoalition (R) PENNSYLVANIA🟦 Harris: 48%🟥 Trump: 45%—WISCONSIN🟦 Harris: 48%🟥 Trump: 46%—MICHIGAN🟦 Harris: 45%🟥 Trump: 45%—NEVADA🟥 Trump: 46%🟦 Harris: 45%—ARIZONA🟥 Trump: 48%🟦 Harris: 43%

    August 1, 2024
  • New thread for overnight fighting.

    July 31, 2024
  • Trump with edge in Pennsylvania

    According to a new poll from Quantus Polls and News, taken July 27-28 against 500 RV. The Poll is D+2, with a 4.4 MoE: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 48 Border Czar Harris 46

    July 31, 2024
  • Border Czar Harris opens 10 point lead in Minnesota

    According to SurveyUSA, 7/23-7/25; 626 LV MINNESOTA – SurveyUSA Trump 40 Harris 50 Other 4

    July 31, 2024
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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

 

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