The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

An obscure pollster will poll the field, often with a small sample size over a long period, hold the poll, wait, and then later if its strategic to release it, then release it as a stale poll, hoping most people will not notice the dates. It will falsely suggest the momentum has remained when it…

According to SoCal Strategies Aug. 26-27; 612 LV: NORTH CAROLINA Trump 50 Harris 46

According to a new poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) taken for the AARP, 8/14-8/20 against 600 LV. Many have argued that by this point in the election Hogan would be trailing badly, that it was just too big a lift. But instead he is hanging around, still alive: MARYLAND SENATE Hogan…

Arizona poll done by Noble Predictive Insights, against 1,003 RVs from 8/12-8/16. PPP polls were done for a Dem PAC “Clean and prosperous America” on 8/21-8/22 against 1,562 RVs for both states combined: ARIZONA Trump 47 Harris 44 TEXAS Trump 49 Harris 44 U.S. Senate: Cruz 47 Allred 45 FLORIDA Trump 51 Harris 47 U.S.…

According to a new poll by SoCal Strategies taken Aug. 23 against 713 LVs: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 48 Harris 47 U.S. Senate: McCormick 41 Casey 47

According to new polls done by TIPP in Michigan (8/20-8/22; 741 LV), and POS (8/8-8/20; 500 LV) in Montana: MICHIGAN Trump 46 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: Rogers 39 Slotkin 49 MONTANA Sheehy 51 Tester 44

New VA poll by Quantus Polls and News Aug. 20-22; 629 RV. VIRGINIA Trump 46 Harris 49

HarrisX polled Utah on Aug. 2-9 against 800 RVs. The ActiVote polls have been coming in the last several days, so I finally figured I would post them here, but they are highly suspect, given they are online only, have samples of only 400 likely voters, and take about three weeks to complete the sampling.…

According to a new poll from Emerson taken against 965 RV on 8/20-8/22 with a MoE of 3.1: NEW MEXICO Trump 42 Harris 52 U.S. Senate: Heinrich 49 Domenici 37

According to a new poll by High Point University taken in an online-only survey “contracted through SurveyUSA using panels of respondents recruited and maintained by Lucid Holdings, LLC.” The data was collected Aug. 19-21 against 1,053 RVs. Their prior poll against Biden had Trump ahead only two points at the same time other pollsters had…

According to a new poll of Texas by the University of Houston taken 8/5-8/16 against 1,365 LVs, and a worthless ActiVote online survey of only 400 likely New York voters, taken 8/1-8/21: TEXAS Trump 50 Harris 45 Other 4 U.S. Senate: Cruz 47 Allred 45 NEW YORK Trump 42 Harris 58

According to a new University of New Hampshire poll. Below shows the change from their prior poll. This new poll was taken 8/15-8/19 against a very large sample of 2,048 Likely voters. This NH poll suggesting Trump would be helped if Kennedy dropped out. They also polled VT (8/15 – 8/19; 924 LV) and ME…

According to new polling from Rasmussen Reports. Link and other data to be filled in when its officially released. Montana: August 13-20, 835 Likely Voters, and a MoE of 3.0. Nevada: August 13-18, 980 Likely Voters, and a MoE of 3.0. Wisconsin: August 13-19, 1,099 Likely Voters, and a MoE of 3.0. MONTANA Trump 58…

According to newly released (but stale) polling from Navigator Research taken July 31 – Aug 8 against 600 likely voters per state: Trump Harris Other AZ 46 45 5 MI 44 44 6 NC 46 46 4 PA 46 44 7 WI 45 45 8

According to a new poll by Roanoke College taken 8/12 – 8/16 against 691 LVs with a MoE of 4.5: VIRGINIA Trump 42 Harris 45 Kennedy 6 West 2 U.S. Senate: Cao 38 Kaine 49

According to a new poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center taken Aug. 13-14 against 1,656 RVs: NEW HAMPSHIRE Trump 44 Harris 51 Kennedy 2

According to top rated pollster Insider Advantage, who polled 800 likely voters on August 18-19 with an MoE of 3.46 PENNSYLVANIA Trump 47 Harris 46 Other 3

According to new polling from UK pollster Redfield and Wilton taken 8/12-8/15 against 7,598 “voters” across these 10 states, presumably Registered Voters: Trump Harris Other FL 48 43 4 NC 47 44 3 AZ 44 43 7 NV 43 42 9 MI 45 44 6 GA 46 46 3 PA 44 46 4 WI 44…

This according to new polling from Focal Data, a UK polling firm who asked a minimum of 651 Likely Voters per state, through an online only survey method conducted 8/6-8/16: Trump Harris GA 49 45 AZ 46 45 PA 47 48 NC 46 47 NV 42 48 WI 44 50 MI 44 51

According to new polling from Rasmussen Reports, taken 8/13-8/17, against over 1000 likely voters per state. Ohio: Trump 50, Harris 42, Kennedy 4, Stein 0, West 1 Brown 47, Moreno 42 Pennsylvania: Harris 46, Trump 45, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0 Casey 46, McCormick 43 Arizona: Harris 44, Trump 45, Kennedy 7, West 1,…

Here is a line chart showing the recent gains Trump is making nationally. These are actual numbers showing the averages of the actual polling, not opinion.

According to new polling from the NY Times/Siena College: NORTH CAROLINA Trump 44 Harris 46 Others 5 8/9-8/14; 655 LV NY Times/Siena NEVADA Trump 46 Harris 44 Others 5 8/12-8/15; 677 LV NY Times/Siena GEORGIA Trump 47 Harris 44 Others 5 8/9-8/14; 661 LV NY Times/Siena ARIZONA Trump 43 Harris 47 Others 5 8/8-8/15; 677…

This one from Quantus Polls and News taken Aug. 14-15 against 601 RV and a 4.0 MoE: WISCONSIN Trump 45 Harris 46 Other 4

This one by Cygnal, and they show another tie, and Casey with the edge in the senate race. They also show Shapiro +22 on his net job approval. I Just wondEr why it Was that Harris didn’t pick him? This new poll was taken 8/14-8/15 against 800 LVs with a MoE of 3.4: PENNSYLVANIA Trump…

According to new polling from Emerson College, taken 8/13 – 8/14 against 1000 LV with a MoE of 3.0: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 49 Harris 48 With Kennedy: Trump 47.4 Harris 46.8 Kennedy 3 U.S. Senate: McCormick 44 Casey 48

According to Scott Rasmussen’s RMG Research (not to be confused with Rasmussen Reports). Poll taken 8/6-8/14; 540 RV with a ±4.2% MoE MONTANA Trump 57 Harris 39 Other 3 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 44 Tester 49 Other 2

According to a new TIPP poll done for AmGreatness, 976 LV taken 8/12-8/14 with a ±3.4 MoE: WISCONSIN Trump 47 Harris 47 Other 3 U.S. Senate: Hovde 43 Baldwin 50

According to new polling from AARP, 8/7-8/11; 600 LV; R33/D32/I35. This is polling done by Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D): MICHIGAN Trump 45 Harris 43 Kennedy 6 Stein 1 West 1 U.S. Senate: Rogers 44 Slotkin 47

I say up only 3 because the same pollster had Biden over Trump in PA back in January by a margin of 42 to 37, and again Biden leading in March by two, 42 to 40. So my expectation for this poll was Harris +5 or more. Their final 2020 poll was Trump 44, Biden…

Fox News: 🟥 Donald Trump: 50%🟦 Kamala Harris: 49% Pew Research: 🟦 Harris: 46%🟥 Trump: 45%🟨 RFK Jr: 7%🟪 Other: 1% Economist/YouGov: 🟦 Harris: 46% [+1]🟥 Trump: 44% [+1]🟨 RFK Jr: 3%🟪 Other: 2% J. L. Partners: 🟥 Trump: 43%🟦 Harris: 41%🟨 RFK Jr: 5%🟪 Other: 2% Democracy Corps (D) / YouGov Blue (D) 🟦…