The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Cook Political polling done 9/19-25 against 2,941 LV Trump Harris Sample AZ 48 50 409 LV GA 49 47 411 LV MI 48 51 416 LV NV 47 48 409 LV NC 49 49 411 LV PA 49 50 474 LV WI 47 49 411 LV

GA: Sept. 25-29 | N=942LV — NC: Sept. 25-29 | N=953LV GEORGIA Trump 50 Harris 44 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 49 Harris 47

Washington Post says Trump up two in NC, taken Sept 25-29 against 1,001 likely voters. AARP says Trump is down two in PA, in a little bit of stale poll taken 9/17-24 against 928 LVs. Finally Rasmussen released Florida data collected Aug. 15-Sept. 29 against 1,243 LV: NORTH CAROLINA Trump 50 Harris 48 PENNSYLVANIA Trump…

According to Rasmussen Reports polling–specifically data they pulled from their national sampling from 8/1-9/29. If I heard it right, it was 600 likely voters per state, or something close to that: NEW JERSEY Trump 43 Harris 52 NEW YORK Trump 43 Harris 54

According to Patriot Polling 9/27-9/29; 816 RV and Embold Research 9/16-9/20; 876 LV PENNSYLVANIA Trump 50 Harris 49 U.S. Senate: McCormick 48 Casey 51 RHODE ISLAND Trump 38 Harris 52

according to a new poll from East Carolina U. This one was taken 9/23 – 9/26 against 1005 LVs. Their prior poll was Trump +1 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 49 Harris 47 Adding here a new poll of Indiana done by ARW Strategies 9/23-9/25; 600 LV: INDIANA Trump 55 Harris 39 And a California poll taken…

According to Trafalgar Group PENNSYLVANIA GE: Trafalgar Group 🟥 Trump: 47.5% (+2.2)🟦 Harris: 45.3%🟪 Other: 2.6%—Senate🟦 Casey (inc): 47.4% (+1.8)🟥 McCormick: 45.6%

From the most accurate pollster in 2020: Trump Harris AZ 49.7 48.6 GA 49.3 49.0 NC 47.3 50.8 NV 47.7 50.6 MI 50.5 46.6 PA 50.6 48.0 WI 49.7 48.2 The hosts were long-winded, and I might not have got the WI numbers right, so I will update this in the morning for accuracy, and…

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: I meant to add this chart yesterday, but time got away from me. Here you can see what the pundits have been crowing about in Virginia. You can also easily see the problem for Republicans in Virginia. There are two swing districts, 2 and 7, but the GOP as a whole has…

Taken Sept 19-22 against 738 LV in Nevada, 993 LV in Minnesota, and 708 LV in New Mexico: Trump Harris 44 50 46 49 49 48 PROGRAMMING NOTE FROM DW: Due to the significant increase in polling that will no doubt continue from now through election day, I will not be able to start a…

Marist polled AZ (9/19 – 9/24; 1264 LV), GA (9/19 – 9/24; 1220 LV), and NC (9/19 – 9/24; 1348 LV). They also polled the rust belt states: Trump Harris 50 49 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 47 52 The Hill/Emerson polled TX (9/22 – 9/24; 950 LV) and VA (9/22 –…

According to a new CBS/YouGov taken 9/20-9/24 against 1441 LVs GEORGIA Trump 51 Harris 49

RMG Research, Susquehanna, Muhlenberg College, all with ties and Monmouth with a 3 point Harris lead: Trump Harris RMG Research 49 49 Susquehanna 46 46 Muhlenberg 48 48 Monmouth 45 48

According to RMG Research poll of 757 LVs taken 9/18-9/20: OHIO Trump 54 Harris 43 U.S. Senate: Moreno 48 Brown 46 Also new polling of PA from Muhlenberg College, 450 LV | 9/16-19: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 48 Harris 48 U.S. Senate McCormick 43 Casey 48 One more in Texas from ActiVote: TEXAS Trump 54 Harris 46

SurveyUSA polled 619 LVs in New Mexico on Sept. 12-18: NEW MEXICO Trump 42 Harris 50 MassINC Polling Group polled 800 LVs in Rhode Island on Sept. 12-18: RHODE ISLAND Trump 43 Harris 56 MassINC Polling Group polled 800 LVs in Connecticut on Sept. 12-18: CONNECTICUT Trump 37 Harris 53 Slingshot Strategies polled 500 RVs…

Rasmussen polled GA and PA Sept. 19-22 GEORGIA Trump 50 Harris 47 PENNSYVLANIA Trump 48 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: McCormick 45 Casey 45 Elon University polled North Carolina Sept 9-13, a very dated poll, but here it is: NORTH CAROLINA Trump 45 Harris 46 USA Today/Suffolk polled Michigan MICHIGAN Trump 45.4 Harris 47.6 U.S. Senate:…

RMG Research polled 491 Likely voters in Montana from Sept. 12 to 19; the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation polled from Sept. 13 to 18 against 1,200 likely voters in Texas; and MassINC Polling Group polled 800 likely voters in Massachusetts from Sept. 12 tp 18: MONTANA Trump 59 Harris 38 TEXAS Trump 50 Harris 44…

The new round of Redfield and Wilton polls were taken 9/16-9/19 against 9,794 total likely voters:   Trump Harris Oth AZ 47 (+2) 47 (+2) 3 FL 50 (=) 45 (+1) 1 GA 48 (-1) 46 (-1) 3 MI 45 (=) 46 (-2) 1 MN 44 (=) 50 (-1) 1 NV 45 (-1) 45…

According to new polls from NY Times/Siena taken 9/17 – 9/21 against 682 LV in NC and GA; and 713 in AZ: Trump Harris AZ 50 45 GA 49 45 NC 49 47 And there is also a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll of Minnesota taken Sept. 16-18 against 800 LVs showing Trump down…

According to a new ActiVote poll of 400 LVs taken 8/16-9/22: OHIO – U.S. Senate Moreno 51.1 Brown 48.9

According to a new poll by MassINC Polling Group conducted Sept. 12-18 against800 LV: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46 Harris 50 Stein 1 Oliver 0 U.S. Senate: McCormick 42 Casey 49

According to new polling by University of Mary Washington taken Sept. 3-9 against 756 LV: VIRGINIA Trump 46 Harris 48 Full ballot: Trump 46 Harris 47 RFK 2 Other 2 U.S. Senate: Cao 43 Kaine 49

According to Morning Consult polling taken Sept. 9-18 against likely voters: Trump Harris AZ 47 48 GA 49 48 MI 44 52 NC 47 49 NV 47 51 PA 47 49 WI 44 50 MN 43 50 VA 44 51 FL 50 47 OH 52 43 TX 50 46 CO 42 53 MD 33 61

The Hill/Emerson: (9/15-9/18; 800 to1000 LV per state) Trump Harris AZ 49 48 GA 50 47 MI 47 49 NC 48 49 NV 48 48 PA 48 47 WI 49 48 Marist: (9/12-9/17, 1100 – 1500 LVs per state)   Trump Harris MI 47 52 PA 49 49 WI 49 50 Washington Post: (9/12…

According to Pan Atlantic Research, 9/5-9/15; 812 LV; MoE ±3.5 MAINE Trump 41 Harris 50 CD-01 Harris 58 Trump 32 CD-02 Harris 42 Trump 49

According to new polling done for AARP by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D). The poll was taken 9/11-9/14 against 600 LVs with a margin of error of ±4%: WISCONSIN Trump 48 Harris 49 U.S. Senate: Hovde 47 Baldwin 50 Same margin found in the newly release Quinnipiac polling: WISCONSIN Trump 48 Harris 49…

According to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll taken 9/9 – 9/15 against 1000 LVs: GEORGIA Trump 47 Harris 44 Also, not sure what to make of this Gallup poll on candidate favorability: Gallup poll: Favorability Ratings (shift from August) Donald TrumpFavorable: 46% (+5)Unfavorable: 53% (-2) Kamala HarrisFavorable: 44% (-3)Unfavorable: 54% (+5)——Among independentsTrump: 44-53 (net: -9)Harris:…

Emerson polls taken 9/12-9/13 against likely voters: MARYLAND Trump 33 Harris 65 U.S. Senate: Hogan 42 Alsobrooks 49 INDIANA Trump 58 Harris 41 MISSOURI Trump 55 Harris 43 Also a poll of MO from Change Research (D): MISSOURI Trump 50 Harris 41

According to USA Today/Suffolk, InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group The PA polls were Suffolk (500 LVs, 9/11-15) ; and Insider Advantage (800 LVs, 9/14-15). Trafalgar’s GA poll was taken 9/11-13 against 1,098 LVs. PENNSYLVANIA Suffolk: Trump 46 Harris 49 U.S. Senate: McCormick 43 Casey 47 Insider Advantage: Trump 50 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: McCormick 44 Casey…