The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

A few weeks back someone asked for a chart showing the shift between 2016 and 2024, as this provides a more accurate picture of the long term trends in each state. Both elections were won by Trump in a similar environment of a change election to fix the problems created by the prior administration.

Emerson poll: 🔴 Oppose: 50% (+16)🟢 Support: 34%🟡 Neutral: 16% also… More young people believe UnitedHealthcare CEO assassination was acceptable than not – Emerson poll 🟢 Somewhat/completely acceptable: 41% (+1)🔴 Somewhat/completely unacceptable: 40% Emerson | 18-29 year-olds Finally… Donald J. Trump favorability poll 🔴 Favorable: 51% (+6)🔵 Unfavorable: 45%

First 2026 congressional poll 🔴 Republican: 48% (+3)🔵 Democratic: 45% Cygnal | 12/9-11 | N=1,500LV

According to new Echelon Insights polling: Who should be the party’s leading voice?🔵 Kamala Harris: 49% (+13)🟡 Someone new: 36%🟠 Unsure: 15%

According to Victory Insights 11/26-11/29; 800 LV NORTH CAROLINA U.S. Senate: Thom Tillis (Inc) 44.1 Roy Cooper 45.1 U.S. Senate: Lara Trump 44.3 Roy Cooper 45.5

Earlier this year I kept posting an updated red shift / blue shift chart. But when Biden dropped out, there was never enough polling data in uncompetitive states to bring the chart back. Here is the final chart, with some surprises, particularly Massachusetts.

The legacy Aggregators were no match for the HHR’s unique formula for aggregating the polling data into a predictive average for the 2024 election. The chart below compares the results across the 7 battleground states as well as the other two states that finished with a gap less than 5 points.

Two charts have been added to the 2024 polling grades page. The first shows the finalized grades for the pollsters who surveyed at least 5 of the 7 battleground states. Many of these polled repeatedly throughout the year, and were the frequent new thread starters. The Average Miss simply means for each of the states…