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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.


  • Monday Morning After Incredible Rescue
  • Good Friday for those who Observe it
  • No Trouble for GOP in Florida
  • Breaking: Oak Island Treasure Found!
  • Hochul up 13 in New York
  • 2024 Election Polling Grades
  • 2024 Polling Aggregator
  • Walt’s List of Trump’s Achievements

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

OHTXMIGANHMEMNNC
Gap+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+5.6+7.0+7.5
Count5051494847464544
  • Trump with Edge in AZ and PA, way ahead in WI and MI

    This according to Kaplan Strategies: ARIZONA – Kaplan Trump 47 Biden 43 April 20-21; 874 RV PENNSYLVANIA – Kaplan Trump 46 Biden 41 April 20-21; 802 RV WISCONSIN – Kaplan Trump 48 Biden 38 April 20-21; 802 RV MICHIGAN – Kaplan Trump 51 Biden 36 April 20-21; 804 RV

    April 26, 2024
  • Poll free. So far.

    April 26, 2024
  • Biden up 30 in Massachusetts

    According to Suffolk MASSACHUSETTS – Suffolk Biden 52 Trump 22 Kennedy 8 West 1 4/16-4/20; 500 LV

    April 25, 2024
  • Trump dominates battlegrounds except for MI and PA

    According to new Morning Consult/Bloomberg polls: ARIZONA – Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 49 Biden 42 Five Candidates Trump 46 Biden 40 Kennedy 7 West 2 Stein 0 4/8 – 4/13; 801 RV GEORGIA – Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 49 Biden 43 Five Candidates Trump 47 Biden 39 Kennedy 5 West 1 Stein 1 4/8 – 4/13; 802 RV MICHIGAN…

    April 24, 2024
  • PA Primary Results Thread!

    April 23, 2024
  • PA Primary Day!

    I voted for Nikki Haley for President because Trump is a moron on Ukraine. I also voted for our old HHR friend, Michael, for delegate to the GOP convention.

    April 23, 2024
  • Trump up only 2 in North Carolina; Gov race a Dem blowout

    According to new poll from Meredith College: NORTH CAROLINA – Meredith College Trump 41 Biden 39 Kennedy 9 Someone else 4 Don’t know 7 Governor: Stein 45 Robinson 36 Someone else 5 Don’t know 15 4/11-4/17; 801 RV

    April 22, 2024
  • Biden up 10 in New York

    According to Siena College: NEW YORK – Siena College Trump 37 Biden 47 4/15-4/17; 806 RV

    April 22, 2024
  • New thread for now.

    April 22, 2024
  • Trump ahead 6 in Pennsylvania

    According to the Bullfinch Group–the same pollster who found Biden ahead 3 in Pennsylvania the week before this new poll. PENNSYLVANIA – Bullfinch Group Trump 44 Biden 38 Other 12 3/29-4/3; 600 RV

    April 20, 2024
  • Insomnia thread.

    April 20, 2024
  • Trump up in GA & MI, while PA & WI tied

    According to Fox News polls: GEORGIA – Fox News Trump 51 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 46 Biden 39 Kennedy 7 Stein 1 West 2 April 11-16; 1,128 RV MICHIGAN – Fox News Trump 49 Biden 46 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 West 2 April 11-16; 1,126 RV PENNSYLVANIA –…

    April 19, 2024
  • 101 comments and too much Bunu? New thread!

    April 18, 2024
  • Despite repeated polling, Florida still not in play

    This time Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research: FLORIDA – FAU/Mainstreet Research Trump 51 Biden 43 Three Candidates: Trump 49 Biden 40 Kennedy 6 April 15-17; 815 LV Bonus content: I was intrigued by 538’s data, comparing Biden’s job approval against past presidents running for re-election as the incumbent. I re-arranged the data into a clearer table…

    April 18, 2024
  • Wisconsin US Senate: Baldwin in trouble?

    Perhaps according to new Marquette Law poll: WISCONSIN – Marquette Trump 51 Biden 49 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 41 Kennedy 12 Stein 3 West 1 US Senate: Hovde 37 Baldwin 44 Registered voters, leaners: Hovde 47 Baldwin 52 Likely voters, leaners: Hovde 50 Baldwin 50 814 RV | 736 LV; 4/3-4/10

    April 17, 2024
  • Trump ahead 6 in Michigan; 3 with five candidates

    According to new poll from MRG: MICHIGAN – MRG Trump 42 Biden 36 Five Candidates: Trump 37 Biden 34 Kennedy 13 Stein 2 West 1 4/8-4/11; 600 LV

    April 17, 2024
  • Tie in Wisconsin

    According to North Star Opinion Research: WISCONSIN – North Star Opinion Research Trump 45 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 37 Biden 36 Kennedy 13 Stein 4 West 2 4/6-4/9; 600 LV

    April 17, 2024
  • DW could not find any polls. Open thread!

    April 17, 2024
  • Trump up 6 in Arizona

    According to the Tyson Group: ARIZONA – Tyson Group Trump 39 Biden 33 Kennedy 12 Stein 2 West 2 Mapstead 1 US Senate Gallego 39 Lake 34 Williams 10 Undecided 17 April 10-11, 600 LV

    April 16, 2024
  • Texas continues to not be in play, Trump up 12

    According to a new poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation: TEXAS – THPF Trump 46 Biden 34 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 Oliver 1 US Senate Cruz 46 Allred 41 Brown 4 April 5-10; 1,600 LV

    April 16, 2024
  • Hogan dominates Maryland US Senate race

    According to new Fox45/Baltimore Sun poll: MARYLAND – US Senate – Baltimore Sun Hogan 53 Trone 40 Hogan 54 Alsobrooks 36 Democratic Primary Trone 50 Alsobrooks 38 April 7-10; 1,292 LV

    April 16, 2024
  • New thread. Go!

    April 16, 2024
  • Trump ahead in ARIZONA

    According to new poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates: ARIZONA – Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Trump 48 Biden 44 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 37 Kennedy 10 Stein 2 Mapstead 1 4/7-4/11; 400 LV

    April 15, 2024
  • Trump on cruise control in FLORIDA

    According to new poll from IPSOS: FLORIDA – IPSOS Trump 39 Biden 31 Kennedy 7 US Senate Scott 36 Mucarsel-Powell 26 4/5-4/7; 1,014 A

    April 14, 2024
  • Anybody want to criticize supporting Israel? I have the GFYs ready.

    April 14, 2024
  • Mets win. Phillies lose. Weekend already sucks.

    April 13, 2024
  • Trump up 6 in ARIZONA. Senate race tied.

    According to a new poll from The Bullfinch Group: ARIZONA – Bullfinch Group Trump 44 Biden 38 Other 13 US Senate: Lake 41 Gallego 41 3/29-4/3; 600 RV

    April 12, 2024
  • Texas not in play, Trump, Cruz both up 9

    According to Cygnal: TEXAS – Cygnal Trump 51 Biden 42 Five candidates Trump 46 Biden 37 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 Weat 1 April 4-6; 1000 LV

    April 11, 2024
  • Yet another NC poll, this one a GOP lead in Governor race

    According to High Point University: NORTH CAROLINA – Cygnal Trump 43 Biden 39 Kennedy 7 Governor: Robinson 40 Stein 38 Ross 3 Turner 1 April 7-8; 600 LV

    April 11, 2024
  • Trump with edge in NC, Governor’s race not a blowout after all.

    According to a new poll from High Point University. Only yesterday Quinnipiac told us the Governor’s race was all but over. High Point says not so fast. NORTH CAROLINA – High Point University Survey Research Center Trump 45 Biden 42 Governor: Stein 37 Robinson 34 March 22-30; 829 RV

    April 11, 2024
  • No surprises in FL or CA

    According to new polls from Emerson and PPIC: FLORIDA – Emerson Trump 51 Biden 38 Five Candidates: Trump 49 Biden 35 Kennedy 6 West 1 Stein 1 4/9 – 4/10; 1,000 RV CALIFORNIA – PPIC Trump 31 Biden 54 3/19 – 3/25; 1,089 LV

    April 11, 2024
  • Trump with edge in NC; Governor’s race a Dem blowout

    According to Quinnipiac: NORTH CAROLINA – Quinnipiac University Trump 48 Biden 46 Five Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 38 Kennedy 12 Stein 3 West 3 Governor: Robinson 44 Stein 52 Four Candidates: Robinson 41 Stein 48 Ross 4 Turner 2 April 4-8; 1,401 RV

    April 10, 2024
  • Trump way up in TN, Biden way up in MA (yawn)

    No surprises from Targoz Market Research & MassINC Polling Group: TENNESSEE – Targoz Market Research Trump 55 Biden 31 Three Candidates: Trump 47 Biden 28 Kennedy 15 March 15-April 2; 955 LV MASSACHUSETTS – MassINC Polling Group Trump 28 Biden 46 Kennedy 9 West 1 March 21-29; 1,002 RV

    April 10, 2024
  • Trump down 2 in MINNESOTA

    According to SurveyUSA: MINNESOTA – SurveyUSA Trump 42 Biden 44 April 4-7; 608 LV

    April 9, 2024
  • Biden with edge in MI and PA

    According to new polls from The Bullfinch Group: MICHIGAN – The Bullfinch Group Trump 39 Biden 42 3/29-4/3; 600 RV PENNSYLVANIA – The Bullfinch Group Trump 41 Biden 44 Kennedy 7 US Senate: McCormick 30 Casey 47 March 22-26; 800 RV

    April 9, 2024
  • Sheehy ahead in US Senate race – Montana

    According to J.L. Partners: MONTANA – J.L. Partners Sheehy 48 Tester 45 March 26-29; 503 LV

    April 9, 2024
  • Waiting for polls…

    April 8, 2024
  • It’s Saturday!

    April 6, 2024
  • Trump with edge in MICHIGAN

    According to a new Big Data Poll: MICHIGAN – Big Data Poll Trump 45.8 (51.5 with leaners) Biden 41.2 (48.5 with leaners) Four Candidates: Trump 43.2 (43.9 with leaners) Biden 40 (42.2 with leaners) Kennedy 9.6 (11.3 with leaners) Stein 1.4 (2.6 with leaners) 3/26-3/30; 1,218 RV

    April 5, 2024
  • More polls: PA and WA

    Franklin & Marshall shows movement toward Trump in PA in 3-way race. Biden ahead 11 in Washington State, a place where he won by 19 in 2020. PENNSYLVANIA – Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research Trump 38 Biden 48 Four Candidates: Trump 40 (prior poll 37) Biden 42 Kennedy 9 (prior poll 7)…

    April 4, 2024
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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

 

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