The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

After the NY jury verdict, according to East Carolina U: NORTH CAROLINA – East Carolina U. Trump 48 (+1) Biden 43 (-1) 5/31-6/3; 1,332 RV Also, here is the current score on Biden Job Approval against past first term presidents running for re-election:

My uncle went ashore on June 7, 1944. Many years ago, I asked him if he felt envious of the attention received by those who stormed the beach on June 6th. He said the Germans did not stop shooting at him until the war ended.

According to Rasmussen: NORTH CAROLINA – Rasmussen Trump 51 Biden 43 5/26-5/27; 1,053 LV

According to Quinnipiac and National Public Affairs (a firm that must have been started by Bill Clinton): GEORGIA – Quinnipiac Trump 49 Biden 44 Six Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 37 Kennedy 8 West 3 Oliver 3 Stein 2 May 30-June 3; 1,203 RV OHIO – National Public Affairs Trump 54 Biden 46 Five Candidates: Trump…

From YouGov/UMASS, Mitchell, and FAU: MASSACHUSETTS – YouGov/University of Massachusetts Trump 27 Biden 48 Kennedy 9 May 17-30; 700 A MICHIGAN – MNS/Mitchell Research Trump 48.2 (-1) Biden 47.6 (+1) Five Candidates: Trump 46.3 Biden 45.1 Kennedy 3 (-2) Stein 1 West 1 U.S. Senate Rogers 33 (-3) Slotkin 36 (-4) 6/3 – 6/3, 697…

According to North Star Opinion Research: NORTH CAROLINA – North Star Opinion Research Trump 49 Biden 41 Five Candidates: Trump 44 Biden 32 Kennedy 9 West 3 Stein 2 Governor Robinson 44 Stein 42 May 29-June 2; 600 LV

This according to Emerson College: NEW YORK – The Hill/Emerson Trump 41 Biden 48 Five Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 44 Kennedy 6 West 2 Stein 1 5/28 – 5/29; 1,000 RV

Field work done by GS Strategy Group & Benenson Strategy Group: ARIZONA – Cook Lake 41 Gallego 46 May 6-13 NEVADA – Cook Brown 41 Rosen 48 May 6-13 PENNSYLVANIA – Cook McCormick 41 Casey 49 May 6-13 WISCONSIN – Cook Hovde 37 Baldwin 49 May 6-13 MICHIGAN – Cook Rogers 42 Slotkin 44 May…

A new national poll by Marist seems to suggest that RFK, Stein, and West hurt Biden much more than Trump. Most polls show the difference is negligible, or that Trump is hurt more by the others: National Poll NPR/PBS/Marist Trump 48 Biden 50 Five Candidates: Trump 44 Biden 40 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 West 2…

According to Roanoke College Poll: VIRGINIA – Roanoke College Trump 42 (-1) Biden 42 (-5) Five Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 40 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 West 1 5/12-5/21; 711 LV

According to Iron Light Intelligence: NEVADA – Iron Light Intelligence Trump 37 Biden 34 Kennedy 15 5/17-5/21; 600 LV NEBRASKA CD02 – Iron Light Intelligence Trump 37 Biden 42 Kennedy 13 5/17-5/24; 400 LV

According to Mitchell Research: MICHIGAN – MIRS/Mitchell Research Trump 49 (+2) Biden 47 (+3) Five Candidates: Trump 46 (+2) Biden 45 (+3) Kennedy 5 (-1) Stein 1 West 1 U.S. Senate: Rogers 36 Slotkin 40 5/20-5/21; 697 LV

According to The Tyson Group: NEVADA – The Tyson Group Trump 47 Biden 44 Five Candidates: Trump 40 Biden 37 Kennedy 9 West 2 Stein 1 Undecided 11 U.S. Senate: Brown 33 Rosen 47 Cunningham 4 5/22-5/25; 601 LV

This week “Prime Group” released battleground state polling for “Citizens to Save Our Republic” a far left super PAC. ARIZONA – Prime Group Trump 51 Biden 49 Five Candidates: Trump 44 Biden 40 Kennedy 11 Stein 2 West 3 May 9-16; 490 RV GEORGIA – Prime Group Trump 51 Biden 49 Five Candidates: Trump 42…

According to Elway: WASHINGTON – Elway Research Trump 34 Biden 42 U.S. Senate: Garcia 30 Cantwell 39 May 13-16; 403 RV

According to the University of New Hampshire: RHODE ISLAND – UNH Trump 40 Biden 60 Five Candidates: Trump 33 Biden 52 Kennedy 6 Stein 0 West 1 May 16-20; 538 LV MASSACHUSETTS – UNH Trump 32 Biden 68  Five Candidates: Trump 26 Biden 55 Kennedy 10 Stein 2 West 1 May 16-20; 526 LV

According to new poll by the University of New Hampshire: NEW HAMPSHIRE – UNH Trump 48 Biden 52 Five Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 44 Kennedy 3 Stein 2 West 1 5/16-5/20; 1,120 LV

According to FAU/Mainstreet Research, Texas Lyceum, and Mason-Dixon. Notice that in AZ, FAU believes ALL Kennedy voters would vote for Biden, and none for Trump: ARIZONA – FAU Trump 43 Biden 45 Three Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 39 Kennedy 7 May 19-21; 501 LV NEVADA – FAU Trump 51 Biden 43 Three Candidates: Trump 46…

Polling done by Benenson Strategy Group and GS Strategy Group: ARIZONA – Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group Trump 45 Biden 44 Three Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 37 Kennedy 10 5/6-5/13; 527 LV GEORGIA – Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group Trump 47 Biden 44 Three Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 38 Kennedy 10 5/6-5/13; 600 LV MICHIGAN…

Yes, according to High Point, the first poll I recall where the GOP candidate for Governor outpaces Trump: NORTH CAROLINA – High Point University Trump 44 Biden 42 Governor: Robinson 39 Stein 34 5/2 – 5/9; 804 RV

According to UMASS/YouGov; Change Research (D), and Vanderbilt U: NEW HAMPSHIRE – UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov Trump 36 Biden 42 Kennedy 11 May 6-14; 600 LV NORTH CAROLINA – Change Research Trump 45 Biden 43 Three Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 38 Kennedy 11 Governor: Robinson 43 Stein 44 May 13-18; 835 LV TENNESSEE…

According to new polls from Siena and Noble Predictive Insights: NEW YORK – Siena Trump 38 (+1) Biden 47 Other 3 May 13-15; 1,191 RV ARIZONA – Noble Predictive Insights Trump 44 Biden 41 Five Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 36 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 West 1 5/7 – 5/14; 1003 RV

Trump leads all but Michigan like their April poll, with some improvement in a few states, Biden closer in others. ARIZONA – Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 49 Biden 44 (+2) Five Candidates: Trump 45 (-1) Biden 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 (+2) West 1 (-1) 5/7-5/13; 795 RV GEORGIA – Bloomberg/MrnConsult Trump 47 (-2) Biden 44 (+1)…

According to PPP: WASHINGTON – Public Policy Polling Trump 39 (+1) Biden 55 (+1) Governor: Reichert 42 Ferguson 48 (+6) 5/15-5/16; 615 LV

According to NHJournal/Praecones Analytica NEW HAMPSHIRE – NHJournal/Praecones Analytica Trump 36.6 Biden 36.5 Kennedy 14.6 Other 12.4 May 15-20; 862 RV

It’s day #1,217 of the Biden Presidency. See below how he compares to recent first term presidents on the same day:

Now it is CBS News/You Gov who has taken their turn to confirm that Florida is not in play: FLORIDA – YouGov / CBS News Trump 54 Biden 45 Three Candidates: Trump 49 Biden 36 Stein 3 U.S. Senate: Scott 45 Mucarsel-Powell 37 May 10-16; 1,163 LV ARIZONA – YouGov / CBS News Trump 52…

Now we have polling data for all 50 states, and so here is an update of the chart showing the actual 2020 results against the gap in polling for 2024. Keep in mind some of these 2024 numbers are based on only one poll. This is the first update that includes some states showing a…