The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to a newly released poll from Fabrizio Lee & Associates MONTANA – Fabrizio Lee Trump 54 Biden 36 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 48 Tester 48 Three Candidates: Sheehy 46 Tester 43 Daoud 4 6/3-6/5; 500 LV

According to an AARP commissioned poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D). The press release was very poorly written up, without even providing all the data for the actual candidates who are on the ballot or expect to be on the ballot. I will revise the post if they release…

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia and Embold Research GEORGIA – AJC/Univ. of Georgia Trump 43 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Oliver 1 6/11-6/20; 1,000 LV RHODE ISLAND – Embold Research Trump 33 Biden 40 Kennedy 12 6/5-6/14; 1,450 LV

Civiqs (D) has been providing job approval data, by state, for some time now: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true Morning Consult has now published their own map of Biden job approval: https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/joe-biden-approval-rating-by-state This allows for an averaging of the net job approval from the two polls, which I provide below, with the battleground states in bold typeface: Wyoming -59West…

According to new poll by Public Policy Polling (D): MARYLAND – PPP Trump 30 Biden 56 Undecided 14 U.S. Senate: Hogan 40 Alsobrooks 48 Five Candidates: Hogan 34 Alsobrooks 45 Scott 3 Osuchukwu 1 Wallace 1 Undecided 16 6/16-6/20; 635 V

According to North Star Opinion Research, who shows an increase for Trump against their poll done in March. Furthermore, Stein and Oliver are on the ballot there, and Kennedy expects to make it: ARIZONA – North Star Opinion Research Trump 48 (+2) Biden 42 Five Candidates: Trump 42 (+5) Biden 32 (-1) Kennedy 13 (-5)…

According to a new Emerson College poll MISSOURI – Emerson Trump 53 (Lean: 57) Biden 40 (Lean: 43) Undecided 7 Five Candidates: Trump 50 Biden 35 Kennedy 7 West 1 Stein 1 U.S. Senate: Hawley 47 Kunce 38 Other 5 Undecided 10 6/17-6/19; 1,000 RV

According to Public Opinion Strategies poll: MONTANA – Public Opinion Strategies Trump 57 Biden 37 U.S. Senate Sheehy 46 Tester 46 6/11-6/13; 500 LV

According to new polls from Emerson College: ARIZONA – Emerson Trump 47.2 (-1) | Lean: 52 Biden 42.7 (-1) | Lean: 48 Undecided 10 Five Candidates: Trump 42.7 Biden 39.3 Kennedy 7.7 West 0.7 Stein 1.2 Undecided 8.4 U.S. Senate Lake 41 Gallego 45 Undecided 14 June 13-18; 1,000 RV GEORGIA – Emerson Trump 45.4…

According to a newly released poll from the University of Texas: TEXAS – University of Texas Trump 46 Biden 39 Other 9 Six Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 34 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 West 2 Oliver 0 U.S. Senate: Cruz 45 Allred 34 5/31-6/9; 1,200 RV

According to Siena College: NEW YORK – Siena Trump 39 Biden 47 Other 5 6/12-6/13; 805 RV

According to PPP (D) NEW MEXICO – PPP Heinrich 47 Domenici 40 June 13-14; 555 V

According to a new poll by Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling. Their sample was simply ‘voters’ with no indication as to registered or likely. PPP says that Hispanics in NM favor Biden over Trump 57/31. This survey found Biden’s job approval in NM at 44/50, which is much stronger for Biden than another Democrat…

According to Selzer. Also a new batch of Redfield and Wilton polls: IOWA – Selzer Trump 50 Biden 32 Kennedy 9 Oliver 2 Other 3 Not Sure 3 June 9-14; 632 LV ARIZONA – Redfield & Wilton Trump 40 (-4) Biden 38 (-4) Kennedy 6 (-1) Other 1 Not Sure 13 June 8-11 FLORIDA –…

According to McLaughlin and Associates poll: MINNESOTA – McLaughlin and Associates Trump 47 Biden 45 Six Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 37 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 West 2 Oliver 1 Undecided 11 6/9-6/11; 600 LV

According to a new poll by Rasmussen: ARIZONA – Rasmussen Trump 47 Biden 40 Other 9 Five Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 37 Kennedy 10 West 2 Stein 1 Undecided 7 U.S. Senate: Lake 39 Gallego 40 Hernandez 4 6/11-6/13; 750 LV

According to PPIC, and J.L. Partners. Caveat on the Wisconsin poll. Looking it over, it appears to be a push poll for the “American Dream Fund.” The polling result suggests that the candidate who endorses this project is the one who will win Wisconsin. I am always skeptical of a poll where the aim is…

VIRGINIA – coefficient Trump 41 Biden 41 Kennedy 7 Undecided 12 6/11-6/12; 851 LV

According to Deseret News, University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics/HarrisX UTAH – HarrisX Trump 57 Biden 25 Three Candidates: Trump 49 Biden 20 Kennedy 20 June 4-7; 857 RV

2020 results compared to 2024 polling.

According to a poll commissioned by the AARP: ARIZONA – Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research Trump 50 Biden 44 Five Candidates: Trump 45 Biden 37 Kennedy 11 Stein 3 Oliver 0 U.S. Senate Lake 45 Gallego 48 May 28-June 4; 600 LV

According to FAU Polling: FLORIDA – FAU Trump 49 (-2) Biden 43 Three Candidates: Trump 45 (-4) Biden 40 Kennedy 8 (+2) Other 2 U.S. Senate Scott 45 (-8) Mucarsel-Powell 43 (+7) 6/8-6/9; 777 LV

According to Marist: PENNSYLVANIA – Marist Trump 47 Biden 45 Kennedy 3 West 1 Stein 1 U.S. Senate: McCormick 46 Casey 52 6/3 – 6/6; 1,181 RV

Yes according to a NRSC internal poll: NEW MEXICO – Red Oak Strategic Domenici 38 Heinrich 41 May 7-19; 1,800 RV

Also Trump ahead 10 in Florida according to Tyson Group: OHIO – Marist Trump 48 Biden 41 Kennedy 5 Stein 1 West 1 U.S. Senate: Moreno 45 Brown 50 6/3 – 6/6; 1137 RV FLORIDA – Tyson Group Trump 46 Biden 36 U.S. Senate: Scott 46 Mucarsel-Powell 33 6/6-6/10; LV

According to Mason-Dixon: MINNESOTA – Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Trump 41 Biden 45 Kennedy 6 Other 2 Undecided 7 June 3-5; 800 LV

According to Fox News: VIRGINIA – Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Trump 48 Biden 48 Five Candidates: Trump 41 Biden 42 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 West 2 June 1-3; 1,107 RV FLORIDA – Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Trump 50 Biden 46 Five Candidates: Trump 47 Biden 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 1 West 2 June…

According to Kaplan: WEST VIRGINIA – Kaplan Trump 55 Biden 28 6/4; 464 LV