The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to a new poll by SoCal Research. They did not ask about Kennedy or other candidates, and they didn’t bother to ask about the senate race: VIRGINIA – SoCal Research Trump 44 Biden 47 In Case of Demented Incumbent, break glass: Trump 47 Harris 47 July 6-11; 1,000 RV

According to a new poll by the University of Houston” TEXAS – University of Houston Trump 49 Biden 40 Kennedy 5 Stein 2 U.S. Senate: Cruz 47 Allred 44 Brown 3 6/20-7/1; 1,484 LV

According to Remington Research Group: MONTANA Sheehy 50 Tester 45 ARIZONA Lake 47 Gallego 47 WISCONSIN Hovde 48 Baldwin 48 OHIO Moreno 44 Brown 50 PENNSYLVANIA McCormick 48 Casey 49 MICHIGAN Rogers 43 Slotkin 47 NEVADA Brown 46 Rosen 48 TEXAS Cruz 53 Allred 43 June 28-30; 600 LV per state

According to post-debate polling by 1983 Labs (yes, I have never heard of them either): ARIZONA Trump 48 Biden 33 Kennedy 8 Oliver 2 PENNSYLVANIA Trump 46 Biden 41 Kennedy 3 Oliver 1 MICHIGAN Trump 45 Biden 41 Kennedy 5 Oliver 1 June 28-30 | 1,686 LV (3 states)

According to new AARP poll done by Fabrizio Lee and Impact Research: WISCONSIN – Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research Trump 50 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 44 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Stein 3 Oliver 1 U.S. Senate: Hovde 45 Baldwin 50 June 28-July 2; 600 LV

This according to new state polling by Bloomberg/Morning Consult: Arizona Trump 48, Biden 45 Trump 45, Biden 38, Kennedy 9, Stein 0, West 1 Nevada Trump 48, Biden 43 Trump 45, Biden 39, Kennedy 6, West 2, Stein 0 Wisconsin Trump 44, Biden 47 Trump 39, Biden 41, Kennedy 10, West 1, Stein 1 Michigan Trump 43, Biden 48 Biden 45, Trump 39, Kennedy 6, West 2, Stein 1 Pennsylvania Trump 51, Biden 44 Trump 44, Biden 41, Kennedy 7, Stein 1, West 1 North Carolina Trump 46, Biden 43 Trump 42, Biden 40, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 1 Georgia Trump 47, Biden 46 Trump 44, Biden 42, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 0

Prediction – Biden supporters will say he saved his campaign, people who want Biden to drop out will say it proves he should, and Trump supporters will say Trump should beat anybody. Trump will just talk about Trump.

According to Remington Research Group. Please note that the numbers below are incomplete. They polled the full field including Kennedy, Stein, and West, but only released the numbers for Trump and Biden. They also polled the senate races, but would say only that AZ and WI were tied, Republicans ahead in MT and TX, while…

NEW JERSEY – United 2024 Trump 43 Biden 41 Four Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 38 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 U.S. Senate: Bashaw 33 Kim 35 Menendez 6 7/1-7/2; 477 RV

Using the data from 538, here is the updated chart comparing Biden against past presidents running for re-election, on day 1,261 of the first term:

According to a new poll from National Public Affairs: NEVADA – National Public Affairs Trump 49 Biden 39 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 33 Kennedy 12 West 3 Stein 2 U.S. Senate: Brown 33 Rosen 41 June 28 – July 1 | 817 LV

According to Democrat polling firm OpenLabs in a poll that appears to be a push poll to pressure Biden to drop out, taken June 28-30, the three days after the debate debacle: State Trump Biden Other Und. AZ 45 36 8 11 CO 39 40 9 13 GA 47 37 6 11 ME 40 40…

According to a pre-debate poll done by the Bullfinch Group: PENNSYLVANIA – The Bullfinch Group Trump 44 Biden 45 Other 7 Undecided 5 U.S. Senate: McCormick 36 Casey 48 Other 5 Undecided 10 6/14-6/19; 800 RV

PENNSYLVANIA – Cygnal Trump 48 Biden 44 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 38 Kennedy 9 Stein 2 West 2 U.S. Senate: McCormick 42 Casey 46 6/27-6/28; 800 LV

According to a new poll from Saint Anselm taken AFTER the debate: NEW HAMPSHIRE – Saint Anselm Trump 44 (+5) Biden 42 (-7) Kennedy 4 (-4) Stein 1 West 1 Oliver 0 June 28-29; 1,746 RV

According to a pre-debate internal poll (1892 Polling) release by Senate candidate Nella Domenici: NEW MEXICO – 1892 Polling Trump 47 Biden 49 Six Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 43 Kennedy 8 Stein 3 Oliver 2 Terry 1 U.S. Senate: Domenici 42.2 Heinrich 45.5 Undecided 9.7 6/19-6/24; 600 LV

According to new poll from Torchlight Strategies: MONTANA – Torchlight Strategies Trump 51 Biden 35 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 47 Tester 41 6/22-6/26; 649 RV

According to a new poll from EPIC-MRA MICHIGAN – EPIC-MRA Trump 49 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 38 Kennedy 10 Stein 2 West 2 U.S. Senate: Rogers 42 Slotkin 44 June 21-26; 600 LV

According to new coefficient poll: NEW JERSEY – Co-Efficient Trump 41 Biden 40 Kennedy/Third Party 7 Undecided 13 U.S. Senate: Kim 39 Bashaw 33 Menendez 3 Undecided 25 June 26-27; 810 LV

According to Public Opinion Strategies: NORTH DAKOTA – Public Opinion Strategies Trump 62 Biden 28 U.S. Senate: Cramer 65 Christiansen 28 U.S. House: Fedorchak 64 Hammer 25 Governor: Armstrong 61 Piepkorn 22 June 15-19; 500 LV

According to a pollster called P2 Insights: ARIZONA – P2 Insights Trump 47 (+6) Biden 36 (-2) Kennedy 7 (-2) 6/11-6/20; 650 LV GEORGIA – P2 Insights Trump 45 (+2) Biden 35 (-4) Kennedy 6 (-1) 6/11-6/20; 650 LV MICHIGAN – P2 Insights Trump 43 (-2) Biden 40 (+3) Kennedy 8 (+1) 6/11-6/20; 650 LV…

According to the University of Texas – Tyler TEXAS – University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research Trump 48 Biden 43 Five Candidates: Trump 47 Biden 41 Kennedy 8 Oliver 3 Stein 1 U.S. Senate: Cruz 45 Allred 42 Brown 5 6/11-6/20; 931 LV

According to a new Marquette poll: WISCONSIN – Marquette University Law School Trump 49 (-2) Biden 51 (+2) Five Candidates: Trump 44 (+2) Biden 42 (+1) Kennedy 7 (-5) West 3 Stein 2 Oliver 1 U.S. Senate: Hovde 47 Baldwin 52 6/12-6/20; 784 LV

I had predicted they would show Biden 48, Trump 44. I was wrong. New from Quinnipiac: Trump 49Biden 45 Trump 43Biden 37RFK 11Stein 2C West 2Oliver 1 –DW