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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.


  • Good Friday for those who Observe it
  • No Trouble for GOP in Florida
  • Breaking: Oak Island Treasure Found!
  • Hochul up 13 in New York
  • Monday Morning
  • 2024 Election Polling Grades
  • 2024 Polling Aggregator
  • Walt’s List of Trump’s Achievements

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

OHTXMIGANHMEMNNC
Gap+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+5.6+7.0+7.5
Count5051494847464544
  • Close race in GEORGIA

    According to Landmark Communications in a one-day (7/22) poll of 400 Likely voters with a +/- 5 MoE: GEORGIA – Landmark Communications Trump 48 Harris 47 Five Candidates: Trump 46 Harris 44 Kennedy 4 West 1 Stein 0

    July 23, 2024
  • Harris worse off than Biden in MICHIGAN

    According to new polling by PPP done for the “Clean and Prosperous America” political action committee. 7/17-7/20, 2583 total voters. MICHIGAN – Public Policy Polling Trump 46 Harris 41 Kennedy 6 Stein 2 ARIZONA – Public Policy Polling Trump 46 Harris 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 1 PENNSYLVANIA– Public Policy Polling Trump 45 Harris 43 Kennedy…

    July 23, 2024
  • HHR Conspiracy Blog now open.

    I disavow all of it but have fun.

    July 23, 2024
  • Two more polls of Pennsylvania

    PENNSYLVANIA – SoCal Research Trump 51 Harris 43 Five Candidates: Trump 43 Harris 37 Kennedy 9 Oliver 4 Stein 3 July 21, 800 LV Correction: There was only ONE new poll, the one above.

    July 22, 2024
  • No difference in PA

    According to SoCal Research: PENNSYLVANIA – SoCal Research Trump 50 Harris 46 Trump 50 Biden 46 July 20-21; 500 LV

    July 22, 2024
  • Trump up 1 in NH, 5 in GA, Harris up 11 in NY

    A wild eight days in American politics. Trump was shot, 1/3 of Democrats denied it happened even though there is ample video proof. Then Biden dropped out after assuring everyone he was fit for the job. Biden has destroyed everything he has ever touched and now has messed up even the HHR Polling Aggregator. So…

    July 22, 2024
  • It should be an interesting week of polls.

    July 22, 2024
  • Joe must….gone.

    July 21, 2024
  • Weekend Day 2

    July 21, 2024
  • Weekend Day 1

    July 20, 2024
  • Friday Night!

    July 19, 2024
  • New Rust Belt poll from Civiqs (D)

    Civiqs polled these states 7/13-7/16, 600 Voters per state: Trump Biden WI 47 47 MI 46 43 PA 46 42

    July 19, 2024
  • New poll of Nebraska

    Done by Torchlight Strategies: NEBRASKA – Torchlight Strategies Trump 52 Biden 33 Other 11 NE-02: Trump 42 Biden 42 Other 12 U.S. Senate: Fisher 50 Osborn 24 Eddy 9 7/8-7/11; LVs

    July 19, 2024
  • Trafalgar Group is back after long vacation

    New polls in WI and MI: WISCONSIN – Trafalgar Group Trump 46 Biden 43 Kennedy 3 Stein 1 West 0 7/15 – 7/17; 1,087 LV MICHIGAN – Trafalgar Group Trump 45 Biden 43 Kennedy 4 Stein 1 West 1 7/15 – 7/17; 1,091 LV

    July 19, 2024
  • Lost opportunity.

    July 19, 2024
  • RNC – Night 4

    July 18, 2024
  • More Insider Advantage polls – Trump leads

    July 15-16, 800 Likely voters each state, polled by Insider Advantage. And they include numbers for what happens if Democrats break the glass in case the demented candidate cannot continue: Trump Biden Trump Harris PA 49 45 47 40 NV 49 42 50 40 AZ 49 44 48 42

    July 18, 2024
  • Trump leads in all battlegrounds

    According to new polls from Emerson College: PENNSYLVANIA – Emerson Trump 48 Biden 43 Six Candidates: Trump 46 Biden 40 Kennedy 4 West 1 Stein 1 Oliver 0 7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV WISCONSIN – Emerson Trump 48 Biden 43 Six Candidates: Trump 46 Biden 43 Kennedy 4 West 0 Stein 1 Oliver 1 7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV…

    July 18, 2024
  • And now we wait for Trump’s speech….and DW’s polls.

    July 18, 2024
  • RNC – Night 3

    July 17, 2024
  • Biden up 15 in Washington State

    According to a new poll by SurveyUSA conducted for KING-TV (Seattle), The Seattle Times, University of Washington Center for an Informed Public. WASHINGTON – SurveyUSA Trump 36 Biden 50 In Case of Demented Incumbent, break glass: Trump 36 Harris 51 7/10-7/13; 708 LV

    July 17, 2024
  • Trump up 6 in Georgia and Biden up 3 in Virginia

    According to FAU / Main Street Research GEORIGIA – FAU Trump 49 Biden 43 With RFK: Trump 46 Biden 40 Kennedy ? 7/12-7/15; 981 RV VIRGINIA – FAU Trump 42 Biden 47 Likely voters, after Assassination Attempt: Trump 44 Biden 44 With RFK: (no after 7/13 numbers) Trump 39 Biden 42 Kennedy 11 7/12-7/15; 918…

    July 17, 2024
  • Biden up 1 in Wisconsin

    According to a PPP poll of ‘voters’ that stressed the importance of the affordable healthcare act and was taken prior to the shooting on Saturday. WISCONSIN – PPP Trump 46 Biden 47 7/11-7/12; 653 V

    July 17, 2024
  • New Day. New thread until DW harvests some polls.

    July 17, 2024
  • Republican National Convention – Night 2

    July 16, 2024
  • Failed assassination attempt makes no difference in Georgia polling

    According to Insider Advantage, in the first state poll taken entirely AFTER Trump was shot in PA on Saturday: GEORGIA – Insider Advantage Trump 47 Biden 44 In case of Demented Incumbent, break glass: Trump 47 Harris 37 July 15-16; 800 LV

    July 16, 2024
  • New thread because I can.

    July 16, 2024
  • Trump up 3 in Virginia

    According to Virginia Commonwealth University. Also new round of polling from the UK firm Redfield and Wilton: VIRGINIA – VCU Trump 39 Biden 36 U.S. Senate: Cao 38 Kaine 49 6/24-7/3; 809 A PENNSYLVANIA Trump 45 Biden 40 Kennedy 6 Other 2 7/8-7/10; 891 RV GEORGIA Trump 46 Biden 40 Kennedy 6 Other 2 7/8-7/10;…

    July 16, 2024
  • Republican National Convention – Night 1

    July 15, 2024
  • Trump ahead in Iowa

    According to Cygnal: IOWA – Cygnal Trump 51 Biden 39 7/8-7/9; 600 LV

    July 15, 2024
  • Trump leads in 6 of the battleground states and NC

    According to The Times/YouGov: ARIZONA – The Times/YouGov Trump 44 Biden 37 Kennedy 5 Stein 2 West 1 U.S. Senate: Lake 41 Gallego 48 July 4-12; 900 RV GEORGIA – The Times/YouGov Trump 44 Biden 40 Kennedy 5 Stein 1 West 1 July 4-12; 1,000 RV MICHIGAN – The Times/YouGov Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy…

    July 15, 2024
  • Close races in PA and VA

    According to NY Times / Siena PENNSYLVANIA – NY Times/Siena Trump 48 Biden 45 Five Candidates: Trump 42 Biden 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 West 1 U.S. Senate: McCormick 42 Casey 50 July 9-12; 872 LV VIRGINIA – NY Times/Siena Trump 45 Biden 48 Five Candidates: Trump 38 Biden 40 Kennedy 7 Stein 2 West…

    July 15, 2024
  • No problems for Trump in Tennessee, Vice-President announcement today.

    According to Targoz Market Research and what Trump has told Bret Baier: TENNESSEE – Targoz Market Research Trump 58 Biden 28 Kennedy 5 June 20-July 1; 942 LV

    July 15, 2024
  • The POTUS race continues. Trump ahead 3 in Michigan

    According to MRG/Detroit News: MICHIGAN – MRG Trump 39 Biden 36 Other 14 Undecided 11 7/11-7/13; 600 RV

    July 15, 2024
  • HHR COMPLAINT THREAD

    July 14, 2024
  • New thread for a sad time.

    July 14, 2024
  • It’s Saturday!

    July 13, 2024
  • Update to the Redshift / Blueshift chart

    Several states have very limited polling.

    July 12, 2024
  • Trump ahead 2 in Wisconsin

    According to a new poll from North Star Opinion Research: WISCONSIN – North Star Opinion Research Trump 46 (+1) Biden 44 (-1) Five Candidates: Trump 38 (+1) Biden 36 (=) Kennedy 11 (-2) Oliver 2 Stein 3 (-1) In case of Demented Incumbent, Break Glass: Trump 48 Harris 47 U.S. Senate: Hovde 41 (+1) Baldwin…

    July 12, 2024
  • Add Marist to short list of pollsters who found Biden won the debate

    New Marist poll shows Biden +2, compared to pre-debate tie. National Poll Marist Trump 48 (-1) Biden 50 (+1) 3 Candidates: Trump 43 Biden 42 Kennedy 8 Other 5 July 9-10; 1,174 RV

    July 12, 2024
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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

 

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