The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +7214221

2026 Senate Forecast

KSIAMEAKMITXMNOHNHNCGA
Gap+3.9+2.5+2+2+0.5+0.5+0.8+1.5+4+4.5+5
Count4748495051524847464544

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Close in Minnesota

DW

According to Insider Advantage:

MINNESOTA

SENATE
🟥 Tafoya: 45%
🟦 Flanagan: 46%

Insider Advantage – 9/28-29; 1200 LV

This poll is not an outlier. SUSA has the race tied. co/efficient is D+1, and TIPP is D+2.

OHIO

GOVERNOR
🟦 Acton: 47%
🟥 Ramaswamy: 48%
—
SENATE
🟥 Husted (i): 43%
🟦 Brown: 46%

BIG DATA POLL – 9/26-27; 680 LV

—

SENATE
🟥 Husted (i): 44%
🟦 Brown: 47%

Suffolk – 9/23-27; 500 LV

TEXAS

SENATE
🟥 Paxton: 48%
🟦 Talarico: 45%

Pulse Decision Science – 9/24-27; 800 LV

MICHIGAN

SENATE
🟥 Rogers: 44%
🟦 El-Sayed: 51%

Marist – 9/24-27; 1235 RV

Added 10:20 a.m.:

IOWA

SENATE
🟥 Hinsen: 47%
🟦 Turek: 46%

Quantus – 9/28-29; 738 LV

25 responses to “Close in Minnesota”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Marxist and boris poles are tossed.

    Like

  2. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Close it is…

    Like

  3. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Tina

    September 30, 2026 at 8:28 am

    both free passers hate the idea. No surprise”

    Tina the fake “conservative” wants to send everyone a $5000 check with no means to pay for it without raising taxes or increasing the debt.

    No suprise.

    Like

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    pce came in below expectations. Inflation slowed last month per cnbc and fox biz. Yet, why did the fed stupidly raise rates? They have been political. In 2024, they cut when cpi and pce were much higher.

    Like

  5. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Is this “DW close” or “Jason close”?

    Like

  6. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina wants Trump to send $5,000 checks to Dems. Well, he used to donate to their candidates with his own money. Now he wants to use ours.

    Like

  7. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I rather give the $5000 to an illegal, after we grant them amnesty.

    -freepasser

    Bitterlaw’s Note – Another lie by Tina

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    Wall Street Journal poll found GOP favorability -18, but DEM favorability at -20.

    Like

  9. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Who is paying for this, Tina?

    Like

  10. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    So Tina, what is “conservative” about giving $5000 to everyone when the only way to pay for it is to raise taxes or increase the deficit?

    Asking for a friend.

    Like

  11. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    They are political and that’s a problem.

    @sethjlevy

    ·

    July PCE, which was used to justify the FED rate increase, was actually 2.98 not the 3.4 that was originally announced. This morning August PCE came in better than expected at 3%, beating expectations by 3/10ths. Inflation will continue to beat expectations in 2026.

    Like

  12. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Is this “DW close” or “Jason close”?”

    My definition of close is like 4 points or less.

    Everyone can have their own definition.

    Like

  13. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The decision by the FED to raise the interest rate was UNANIMOUS even under a Trump appointed chairman.

    Also the only question now is whether there will be one more hike or two before year end.

    However, the probability of an October hike fell from 70% on Monday to 50% yesterday.

    So they might be looking at the data.

    Like

  14. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Issuing everyone a $5000 check is populist demagoguery and would just encourage Dems to do the same thing.

    It is fiscally irresponsible and Tina knows that.

    She just can’t escape the cult mentality.

    Like

  15. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Flanagan throws Walz under the bus in MN.

    GEIST: Do you deserve any responsibility though, Lt Gov, for those fraud schemes that have taken place in your state over the past several years?

    FLANAGAN: The governor says the buck stops with him. More should have been sooner. And I agree.”

    Like

  16. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    We should have a “surprise result” prediction for the election. Not now, but on election eve.

    Depending on the polling, I might pick this race for a surprise. Tafoya is a strong R candidate and Flanagan a weak D candidate.

    Let’s see if that can pull over over the line.

    Like

  17. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Btw, have you noticed that Walz, once the darling of the MSM and present at every Sunday show and quoted in every interview, has now been relegated to the dustbin of history by the MSM?

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    But the polls are truly all over the place and in many different ways. Some polls show the GOP doing better in RV samples than LV. Other polls show the reverse. Suffolk showed Ramaswamy down 10 with Husted down only 3, while Baris shows Ramaswamy AHEAD 1, with Husted down 3. In all my years of following this stuff, I have never seen disparity at this level before. Not sure what it means. But wow.

    Like

  19. DW Avatar
    DW

    “FLANAGAN: The governor says the buck stops with him. More should have been sooner. And I agree.”

    You just saw a peek inside Flanagan’s internal polling. Its as bad as SUSA says it is. Or worse.

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    Okay, here is one that I didn’t expect. The Bullfinch Group got a well deserved F grade for having a 6.28 point skew to Democrats in their polling. So I saw that they polled California 6 where Kiley, the Republican, is trying to win in an upset by running as an independent.

    All of the toupee carrying prognosticators have this one LIKELY or SAFE DEM.

    So I would expect Bullfinch to tell us that its Kiley 38 / Pan 52 (D+14)

    Instead they have it tied at 37. Not sure why they didn’t press the undecided. Or maybe they did and didn’t like the result.

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    just added this one to the thread:

    SENATE
    🟥 Hinsen: 47%
    🟦 Turek: 46%

    Quantus – 9/28-29; 738 LV

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    and Quantus pushed the leaners and got this:

    “The narrow gap persists when voters are asked to consider the race in different ways. Including the preferences of initially undecided voters who lean toward a candidate brings Hinson to 48.5 percent and Turek to 46.6 percent. In a separate question naming only the two major-party candidates, Hinson receives 48.9 percent to Turek’s 46.7 percent.”

    Like

  23. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    lol, the slimes are several months behind.

    Like

  24. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    DeItaone

    MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS RECOVER TO PREWAR LEVELS, ANALYSTS SAY

    GOLDMAN ESTIMATES CRUDE EXPORTS FROM PERSIAN GULF PRODUCERS AT 19 MILLION B/D INCREASED HORMUZ EXPORTS DROVE RECOVERY, GOLDMAN SAYS

    JPM ESTIMATES CRUDE EXPORTS HIT 98% OF PREWAR LEVELS

    Like

  25. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    If this keeps up prices will come down.

    They haven’t come down yet because the inventories were depleted.

    Like

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