The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +7214221

2026 Senate Forecast

KSIAMEAKMIMNTXOHNHNCGA
Gap+3.9+2.5+2+2+0.5+0.8+1+1.5+4+4.5+5
Count4748495051494847464544

***There are no “freepassers” here***

Monday polling

DW

Today’s Talking Point: Voters are angry about high gas prices. But voters forget that Democrats want to ban gas altogether.

New Hampshire Senate:

Pappas 46
Sununu 42

Trafalgar Group

Texas:

Talarico 47
Paxton 45

Hinojosa 44
Abbott 49

Big Data Poll

Talarico 48
Paxton 48

Hinojosa 45
Abbott 50

Stratus Intelligence

Maine:

Jackson 46
Collins 46

Insider Advantage

Iowa:

Turek 47
Hinson 46

South Carolina:

Andrews 42
Graham Nordone 43

North Carolina:

Cooper 53
Whatley 42

AARP

Michigan

El-Sayed 48
Rogers 44

GBAO-Dem PAC

96 responses to “Monday polling”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW – You are giving voters too much credit. It is like Tina thinking voters will analyze complicated economic data rather than just saying, “What am I paying for gas and diesel? WTF”

    Like

  3. DW Avatar
    DW

    That’s my point Bitter. They will turn to Democrats for lower gas prices even though Democrats want $10 a gallon on the way to banning gasoline for good.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    Curious that the Dem in NY-23, a safe R seat chose to reveal an internal poll showing him down 17 points to the Republican, 52/35. This poll suggests a gap similar to the gap Trump took in that seat in 2024. Hochul is hated across much of New York state, so I think the GOP might do okay in some of those competitive house seats.

    Like

  5. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 NOW: Another TEXAS US SENATE poll finds Ken Paxton on the verge of TAKING THE LEAD over James Talarico 🔵 James Talarico: 48% (=) 🔴 Ken Paxton: 48% GOVERNOR 🔴 Greg Abbott: 50% (+5) 🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 45% Stratus (R-aligned) | 9/22-24 | N=965LV

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    is stratus??? -Boris big data? I really hate seeing all these partisan affiliated poles

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/09/27/us-news/da-reopens-probe-into-7-cornell-frat-bros-who-allegedly-drugged-gang-raped-student/

    University police are useless. Their job is to cover up crimes. Real police and a real DA need to examine this. Jason to post “Duke Lacrosse case in 3…2…1…”

    Let’s see where the evidence leads. IF this alleged gang rape occurred, those scumbags need to experience gang rape from the recieving end in jail.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    APolls2022

    ·

    2m

    📊 Generic Ballot Poll by Rasmussen 🟦 Democrats: 48% (-1) 🟥 Republicans: 43% (+2) 🟨 Other: 4

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    Baris needs to change the name of his polling firm to SMALL DATA POLL. His boast has always been large sample sized, but for Texas he polled just 698 LV. I am not saying the results would be different. But I am saying that his methods seem to be changing and he was exposed as a fraud when he kept polling over and over saying Massie was tied when he was really down 10.

    Stratus is some other pollster

    Liked by 1 person

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    I hope the Rasmussen is a trend that will be confirmed by the others.

    Like

  11. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Admitting that Blacks voluntarily fought on both sides of the Revolution is unacceptable to Jason.”

    Tina would be proud of this lie.

    It was bound to happen. Bitter just spent too much time interacting with Tina.

    Like

  12. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    On the other hand, Tina is now fact checking and calling our her own lies.

    She is trying to save Bitter some work, a noble cause.

    Tina

    September 28, 2026 at 9:34 am

    The free passers said this race was over with. Another wrong comment.

    *

    *Another thing never posted at HHR – Fact check by Bitterlaw

    Like

  13. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    My prediction has consistently been that crappy baggage ridden unpopular candidate Ken Paxton will eke out a narrow win in TX, buoyed by hundreds of millons spent to prop him up against a certified wacko anti-Christian, anti-meat, anti-fossil fuel pro men in women’s sports communist.

    Like

  14. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I fact checked Tina’s post. The power of the Edit Button.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Maybe Jan can explain why Abbott is doing better in his run for Governor than Paxton is doing in his Senate campaign.

    Like

  16. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    My niece was sexually assaulted at Rutgers. The school proposed Mediation. The DA routinely refused to prosecute rape allegations at the University because of the she said/he said nature of the crime. I believe my niece. I was not told the name of the scumbag because my niece did not want me to get revenge. I wish I had his name so I could send him her obituary after she killed herself.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    The Republican running for Vermont’s lone house seat is down ‘only’ 17 points according to Braun Research polling. Harris won the state by 32.

    Like

  18. DW Avatar
    DW

    Bitter, that is terrible. No words suffice to express the injustice.

    Like

  19. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    There are two sides to this story. Evidently the plaintiff is adding a lot of stuff to the original complaint. It may be true or may not be true.

    Yes, Bitter is right, the Duke Lacrosse case DOES come to mind.

    I would keep an open mind. We have plenty of evidence that the “believe all women” theory is BS.

    Kretzschmar’s lawyer slammed the lawsuit as “not only intentionally dishonest but morally repugnant,” and said he “welcomes any further investigation by the District Attorney who already determined not to bring charges” in a statement to The Post.

    “While Scott made an immature comment on Snapchat, he did nothing else,” his attorney Jeremy Saland said. “For the few minutes he was in the room with the plaintiff, Scott did not see her in duress or undress, was involved in no sexual activity nor touched the plaintiff in any way and ingested no ketamine.”

    “The DA reported that the plaintiff never said she was drugged without her knowledge, admitted to consuming alcohol and drugs voluntarily, and acknowledged she wasn’t forced to engage in any acts,” he continued. “Equally shocking, and knowingly withheld from these young men, the plaintiff did not assert she was helpless, unconscious, or incapacitated at any time in the fraternity house.

    “The plaintiff can peddle any story she wants, but intentionally victimizing an innocent person for a money grab is reprehensible,” Saland added.

    Regarding Bitter’s niece, I believe her too. The problem is you can’t prosecute every guy a woman says assaulted her on campus, you do need some kind of corroborating evidence. Relationships end badly and sometimes women (or men want revenge and make things up, that is a fact.

    As far as campus police is concerned, Bitter is right, many are a joke. Some are very professional, they use retired police officers, but some are completely unqualified to handle anything beyond a lost phone on campus.

    Still, the regular police has to rely on them somewhat because there is not enough police to handle every campus case at every university. The solution is to improve the quality of campus police and end such things as not referring “needed” football players for prosecution

    Like

  20. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Trafalgar showing a 2 pt lead for Talarico is not good.

    Still, I think some of the undecided might be Cornyn voters who will ultimately hold their nose and vote for Paxton.

    Hope springs eternal.

    Like

  21. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    On the other hand a Dem poll showing El Sayed only up 4 is good news.

    Like

  22. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Bitterlaw

    September 28, 2026 at 11:00 am

    Maybe Jan can explain why Abbott is doing better in his run for Governor than Paxton is doing in his Senate campaign.”

    O ye of little faith.

    The TX electorate is only paying attention to the governor’s race

    They are not paying attention to the Senate race, stellar candidate Paxton will be ahead by 20 when they do.

    Like

  23. DW Avatar
    DW

    Trafalgar did not show Talarico up 2, they had a poll last week showing the freak up 1. Big Data poll has Talarico up 2, and I take that as good news given Baris’ bias against the GOP in this cycle that he has opening admitted and confirmed with Massie polling.

    Like

  24. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Jan said she was having trouble logging on.

    This morning none of my posts would show either, but after an hour the problem seemed to go away on its own.

    Some of the people that haven’t been posting might be having trouble, just my guess.

    Like

  25. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Right, it is Baris.

    However, even +1 for El Freako by Trafalgar is not good either.

    Liked by 1 person

  26. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I cannot take Boris seriously. Maybe he did a full pole, but he probably did not.

    Like

  27. GF Avatar
    GF

    Trafalgar seems to be taking a different approach this cycle. After years of cheerleading GOP polling, they’ve either changed their model to sample more Dems, or they’re just making up numbers again (with no cross tabs) but thinking the Dems will win big to justify their figures. The 2022 set of polls was comically bad, VT Senate at 6 points and WA Senate tied were beyond laughable.

    Like

  28. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    But here Hormuzzle is closed??

    hughhewitt

    ·

    Yes, oil is up this AM, but scroll down my feed to the pointer to Alexander Stahel’s newsletter from early this AM. While traders are spooked (or pretend to be) by President Trump’s quick and complete rejection of Iran’s attempts to get a negotiation going, the Strait is open. Reality always wins over posturing in the long and even the medium term. The IRGC did indeed “overplay its hand.”

    @POTUS

    is right to stiff arm their pleas to talk. If they strike out again as a “Hail Mary,” the response should be an exponential expansion of our last response.

    Like

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    Trafalgar had a bias to the blue in 2024 of 1.9 and Insider Advantage, 2.26 to the blue.

    Like

  30. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Dang the freepassers candidate is broke

    @IAPolls2022

    TX Senate ad spendings and reservations via

    @AdImpact_Pol

    Aired spending: 🔴 GOP — $113.8M 🔵 Dem — $62M Future reservations: 🔴 GOP — $58.6M 🔵 Dem — $3.6M

    Like

  31. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The imaginary freepasser are for Talarico?

    Shame on them.

    Like

  32. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    GOP — $58.6M”

    Wow.

    $60 million bucks thrown away on a race Cornyn would have won by 10 without spending any of it.

    $60 million that could have been used to win in ME, AK, IA, OH, MI, MN…..

    Like

  33. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The freepassers will soon need to pivot to trump is a racist; Epplestein; or Russia hoax 3.0.

    Like

  34. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Baris says Cornyn would have been a sure loser in the general because MAGA hates him and wouldn’t turn out for him in November. I disagreed so I voted for him in the primary. That’s just me.

    Like

  35. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    There are now more and more reports that the Ds blew their wads in September and now are Broke/near broke. Races are not won in the summer.

    Like

  36. DW Avatar
    DW

    Imagine the condition we would be in if Dems nominated Beto in Texas, Stevens in Michigan, and a strong credible candidate in Florida. And we have a shot at Minnesota due to them nominating a corrupt candidate who belongs in jail.

    Like

  37. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina continues to invent posts to disagree with. Not even worth responding to her lies.

    Like

  38. DW Avatar
    DW

    Morning Consult generic ballot unchanged this week at D+7

    Like

  39. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2104616358935777641

    oh no

    Like

  40. DW Avatar
    DW

    Looking back to 2024, there were 73 pollsters who polled more than one state in the election. 5 ended up with a slight skew to the GOP compared to the actual results. The other 68 skewed to the DEMs.

    Like

  41. DW Avatar
    DW

    Another 72 pollsters just polled one state. 9 skewed to the GOP while the other 63 skewed Dem.

    Like

  42. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    lol

    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2104521687664558403

    Like

  43. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Baris says Cornyn would have been a sure loser in the general because MAGA hates him and wouldn’t turn out for him in November.”

    Zzzzz….

    But I guess MAGA won’t complain then if Cornyn voters don’t vote for Paxton, right?

    Like

  44. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    and a strong credible candidate in Florida.”

    I don’t think ANY Democrat could beat Moody.

    Like

  45. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 UPDATE: CNN confirms that MAGA Republicans have SURGED enthusiasm to match the anti-Trump rabid Democrats in the 2026 midterms DEMOCRATS: 71% MAGA GOP: 71% GOOD!! Now get it EVEN HIGHER and vote IN DROVES. 2024 MAGA coming out = we hold the House, hold the Senate, and SAVE Trump 2.0’s second half 🇺🇸 Vote at all costs.

    Like

  46. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    More reports out of oh that the Ds are not getting the numbers they need.

    Like

  47. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  48. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    If true we also have the issue with Freakico in trouble with blacks in Texas. He stole the d primary.

    Like

  49. DW Avatar
    DW

    okay so lets say that its true that MAGA has matched enthusiasm with rabid anti-Trump dems. That only gets us so far given we are still getting clobbered by independents. You know these brilliant citizens who think they are open-minded and are angry about gas prices so they will turn to the party who wants to ban gas.

    Liked by 1 person

  50. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Not sure Beto would do better than Talarico because it is the same base either way. The Dems have a ceiling in TX, Beto came close to breaking it but he got a huge Hispanic vote the Dems no longer have. If you look at Beto’s map he won big all along the Rio Grande and southern Gulf Coast, these areas are closer now.

    Like

  51. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    If true we also have the issue with Freakico in trouble with blacks in Texas.”

    Don’t bet on it. Most will vote for Talarico. Hopefully some of the Crockett diehards won’t.

    Like

  52. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    So the gop-e needs him especially in the 35 most competitive house races.

    Like

  53. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    More reports out of oh that the Ds are not getting the numbers they need.”

    Too early. Those totals are a drop in the bucket.

    Still, better Dems doing worse than better and if its a lasting trend then it could be important.

    Like

  54. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    So the gop-e needs him especially in the 35 most competitive house races”

    Zzzz…

    MAGA votes don’t get anybody elected.

    What is needed is EVERY R vote for the ticket and a sizable portion of Indies.

    THAT wins elections.

    Liked by 1 person

  55. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    CNN: There Has Been No Decline in MAGA support for Trump”

    Baris hardest hit.

    Like

  56. DW Avatar
    DW

    one metric I have noticed some pollsters gathering now is favorability of each party. Both the Dems and GOP have very low favorability, but usually this comparison finds the Dems liked even less.

    Not sure if this is another type of “how is your neighbor going to vote?” sort of question, but what it does tell me is that if the GOP can get gas prices down, its not too late to recover some of the electorate.

    Like

  57. DW Avatar
    DW

    Baris isn’t just wrong because he loves Massie and doesn’t want us ever in a war, he also is left-wing when it comes to prison reform. He seems to have a lot of compassion for the welfare of those in prison.

    Like

  58. DW Avatar
    DW

    Here is another episode of “Polls are all over the place”

    Vermont Governor:

    Scott (R) 44
    Janoo (D) 34

    Vermont Public Radio, 9/10 – 9/21; 732 LV

    Vermont Governor:

    Scott (R) 43
    Janoo (D) 49

    UNH, 9/17 – 9/21; 1418 LV

    Like

  59. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Not a surprise. Baris and Massie are not really conservatives, they are basically Bunus who think they are conservatives.

    They buy into the left’s favorite boogeyman (the military industrial complex), are foreign policy and economic isolationists, and believe in garbage like returning to the gold standard.

    Populism is not conservatism.

    Like

  60. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Unfortunately most Rs, at least the primary voters, are now aligned with the left wing populism they borrowed from the Democrats.

    Main reason I am no longer a Republican.

    Like

  61. DW Avatar
    DW

    One of the more popular Parker Brothers board games after Monopoly and Clue is RISK. The idea is simple. Its a map of the world arranged into regions, and each player starts with 30 or 35 armies, that are spread out on the map, and the attacker gets 3 dice, the defender only 2, but ties go to the defender. Statistically, the advantage is with the attacker. So if a player just sits around all game on the defensive he always loses.

    So it is in real life. There are times when its to your advantage as a country to START the war on your terms before the enemy does on his terms. It is logic and common sense. And it doesn’t make you are warmonger.

    People who never want to fight a war have already surrendered to our enemies and are simply waiting around to be taken over.

    None of us WANT war. But its a necessity in a world filled with hate and evil.

    Like

  62. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The HHR Putinistas will be proud.

    Horrific scenes out of Kyiv this morning as Russia used a jet-powered drone to blow up Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences. People are escaping through windows as the building burns. Just like they target kindergartens and schools, now they are bombing science.

    Like

  63. GF Avatar
    GF

    Risk sucks, I hate it when an army cashes in the cards and gets an extra twenty divisions and then goes on a totally unrealistic rampage across three continents until it is totally exhausted (wiping out two or three opponents in the process).

    Axis and Allies is a much superior game, even with its limitations..

    Like

  64. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Appeal of a Marxist judge.

    Like

  65. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  66. DW Avatar
    DW

    “Clarity Campaign Labs” is a little experienced pollster who seems to have taken off the 2024 cycle. But back in 2022 they had DeSantis up only 1 point in the Florida Governor race and they had the Senate race tied. They just dropped a generic ballot poll, Dems up 7, 50/43.

    Like

  67. DW Avatar
    DW

    Prior clarity campaign labs was D+10

    Like

  68. DW Avatar
    DW

    FLORIDA POLL By Change Research

    GOVERNOR

    🟦 David Jolly: 48%
    🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%

    —

    SENATE

    🟥 Ashley Moody (i): 48%
    🟦 Angie Nixon: 47%

    Change Research-D for @FreedomProjUSA

    Like

  69. DW Avatar
    DW

    Change Research has a D- grade in 2024 for a nearly 6 point skew to the Dems. Obviously they haven’t fixed their problems.

    Like

  70. DW Avatar
    DW

    You might think that pollsters would eventually figure out that Florida isn’t the battleground it used to be.

    Trump won by 13 points two years ago.

    And yet here is what the pollsters said:

    +7 Research company
    +4 Victory Insights
    +7 Stetson University
    +5 Morning Consult
    +5 Cygnal (R)
    +9 FAU
    +5 St. Pete Polls
    +6 Hunt Research
    +8 Emerson
    +4 Redfield and Wilton
    +6 Cherry Communication
    +5 RMG Research
    +4 Marist University
    +6 Mason-Dixon
    +7 Tarrence (R)
    +5 Claremont McKenna/YouGov
    +10 U of N. Florida

    Winner!
    +12 ActiVote

    Oh and ActiVote is the one that currently has the generic ballot at Dem +5.6, not +8 or more like all of the above who missed Florida badly two years ago.

    Like

  71. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I like the video of 43 year old Detroit Tigers’ pitcher Justin Verlander’s 7 year old daughter running out to the mound to hug him ahead of the manager as he was lifted from his final game. Great moment. Being married to Kate Upton is also great.

    GFY

    Like

  72. DW Avatar
    DW

    So I guess the Mets didn’t make the playoffs. A few weeks ago there was that story that said they were still battling for a slot.

    i know they have expanded the playoffs but not that much

    Like

  73. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I get tingled from this pollster.

    -freepassr

    Like

  74. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW – The Mets only finished 14 games out of a playoff spot. They are just signing a 37 year old left hander with 2 prior elbow surgeries away from contending next year.

    Like

  75. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/09/28/lifestyle/this-borough-has-the-best-pizza-in-ny-according-to-surprising-new-report/

    Where is NYC to verify the pizza ratings?

    Like

  76. GF Avatar
    GF

    Kate Upton was doubly talented, I can only imagine how motherhood and nursing a child expanded those talents even further.

    Like

  77. DW Avatar
    DW

    Marist a joke.

    Like

  78. DW Avatar
    DW

    they will likely show Brown+10 over Husted

    Like

  79. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    She has 2 children. Still on fire.

    Like

  80. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Some people are not taking Crockett’s non-endorsement very well…

    “guys, jasmine is just a Fetterman Democrat. what’s so hard to understand? She’s a F-cking soulless grifter republican who probably just wants to get trashed all day and get paid for it, she’s a F-cking scam artist. The worst kind of politician. It’s simple. Ignore her antics.”

    Like

  81. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Of course we have the morons on the other side that claim lifelong conservative R John Cornyn is a RINO communist.

    So there are idiots on both sides.

    Like

  82. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    “Boston is paying immigrants $575 apiece to complete a 10-week course in political organizing, with no legal-status check on applicants and native-born US Bostonians barred from the program entirely, according to the city’s own website.

    Immigrants Lead Boston, run by the Mayor’s Office for Immigrant Advancement, is now in its 7th cohort under Mayor Michelle Wu.”

    $575 for 10 weeks?

    Damm, they are paying those activists some slave wages there….

    Like

  83. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Native-born US Bostonians are barred from making $57 a week?

    Poor bastards.

    Like

  84. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    This cannot be true. Hirmuxxke is closed.

    Like

  85. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-16168675/first-face-mankind-Ancient-human-reconstruction.html

    Walt – Did you know him?

    Liked by 1 person

  86. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  87. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    But Hormuzzle is closed.

    Like

  88. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  89. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The ccp journa is late to the party.

    Like

  90. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    The article says they may try to resort to military attacks out of desperation. No telling what those idiots will try to pull next. They are insane.

    Like

  91. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The WSJ is CCP?

    Will the last “true conservative” please turn off the lights?

    Like

  92. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    But Hormuzzle is closed.”

    Them imaginary freepassers are as delusional as Tina.

    Like

  93. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    How Massachusetts Got It’s Name

    ********

    An early settler of Jamestown VA took some tobacco and his slave and sailed to the Plymouth Bay settlement in New England. He showed them the tobacco and people asked what do you do with it…

    The slave said, “Most people smokes it. But my massa chews it.”

    And that phrase took hold and became the name if the New England settlement.

    Like

  94. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    But Hormuzzle is closed.

    Can Tina give us the link to Bizarro HHR where the Freepassers post?

    Like

  95. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    You have lunatics running Iran and a delusional mad man who puts no value on life running Russia. What could go wrong?

    Like

  96. DW Avatar
    DW

    New Thread

    Like

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