Today’s Talking Point: Voters are angry about high gas prices. But voters forget that Democrats want to ban gas altogether.
New Hampshire Senate:
Pappas 46
Sununu 42
Trafalgar Group
Texas:
Talarico 47
Paxton 45
Hinojosa 44
Abbott 49
Big Data Poll
Talarico 48
Paxton 48
Hinojosa 45
Abbott 50
Stratus Intelligence
Maine:
Jackson 46
Collins 46
Insider Advantage
Iowa:
Turek 47
Hinson 46
South Carolina:
Andrews 42
Graham Nordone 43
North Carolina:
Cooper 53
Whatley 42
AARP
Michigan
El-Sayed 48
Rogers 44
GBAO-Dem PAC
96 responses to “Monday polling”
First
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DW – You are giving voters too much credit. It is like Tina thinking voters will analyze complicated economic data rather than just saying, “What am I paying for gas and diesel? WTF”
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That’s my point Bitter. They will turn to Democrats for lower gas prices even though Democrats want $10 a gallon on the way to banning gasoline for good.
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Curious that the Dem in NY-23, a safe R seat chose to reveal an internal poll showing him down 17 points to the Republican, 52/35. This poll suggests a gap similar to the gap Trump took in that seat in 2024. Hochul is hated across much of New York state, so I think the GOP might do okay in some of those competitive house seats.
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EricLDaugh
·
🚨 NOW: Another TEXAS US SENATE poll finds Ken Paxton on the verge of TAKING THE LEAD over James Talarico 🔵 James Talarico: 48% (=) 🔴 Ken Paxton: 48% GOVERNOR 🔴 Greg Abbott: 50% (+5) 🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 45% Stratus (R-aligned) | 9/22-24 | N=965LV
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is stratus??? -Boris big data? I really hate seeing all these partisan affiliated poles
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https://nypost.com/2026/09/27/us-news/da-reopens-probe-into-7-cornell-frat-bros-who-allegedly-drugged-gang-raped-student/
University police are useless. Their job is to cover up crimes. Real police and a real DA need to examine this. Jason to post “Duke Lacrosse case in 3…2…1…”
Let’s see where the evidence leads. IF this alleged gang rape occurred, those scumbags need to experience gang rape from the recieving end in jail.
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APolls2022
·
2m
📊 Generic Ballot Poll by Rasmussen 🟦 Democrats: 48% (-1) 🟥 Republicans: 43% (+2) 🟨 Other: 4
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Baris needs to change the name of his polling firm to SMALL DATA POLL. His boast has always been large sample sized, but for Texas he polled just 698 LV. I am not saying the results would be different. But I am saying that his methods seem to be changing and he was exposed as a fraud when he kept polling over and over saying Massie was tied when he was really down 10.
Stratus is some other pollster
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I hope the Rasmussen is a trend that will be confirmed by the others.
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Admitting that Blacks voluntarily fought on both sides of the Revolution is unacceptable to Jason.”
Tina would be proud of this lie.
It was bound to happen. Bitter just spent too much time interacting with Tina.
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On the other hand, Tina is now fact checking and calling our her own lies.
She is trying to save Bitter some work, a noble cause.
Tina
September 28, 2026 at 9:34 am
The free passers said this race was over with. Another wrong comment.
*
*Another thing never posted at HHR – Fact check by Bitterlaw
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My prediction has consistently been that crappy baggage ridden unpopular candidate Ken Paxton will eke out a narrow win in TX, buoyed by hundreds of millons spent to prop him up against a certified wacko anti-Christian, anti-meat, anti-fossil fuel pro men in women’s sports communist.
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I fact checked Tina’s post. The power of the Edit Button.
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Maybe Jan can explain why Abbott is doing better in his run for Governor than Paxton is doing in his Senate campaign.
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My niece was sexually assaulted at Rutgers. The school proposed Mediation. The DA routinely refused to prosecute rape allegations at the University because of the she said/he said nature of the crime. I believe my niece. I was not told the name of the scumbag because my niece did not want me to get revenge. I wish I had his name so I could send him her obituary after she killed herself.
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The Republican running for Vermont’s lone house seat is down ‘only’ 17 points according to Braun Research polling. Harris won the state by 32.
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Bitter, that is terrible. No words suffice to express the injustice.
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There are two sides to this story. Evidently the plaintiff is adding a lot of stuff to the original complaint. It may be true or may not be true.
Yes, Bitter is right, the Duke Lacrosse case DOES come to mind.
I would keep an open mind. We have plenty of evidence that the “believe all women” theory is BS.
Kretzschmar’s lawyer slammed the lawsuit as “not only intentionally dishonest but morally repugnant,” and said he “welcomes any further investigation by the District Attorney who already determined not to bring charges” in a statement to The Post.
“While Scott made an immature comment on Snapchat, he did nothing else,” his attorney Jeremy Saland said. “For the few minutes he was in the room with the plaintiff, Scott did not see her in duress or undress, was involved in no sexual activity nor touched the plaintiff in any way and ingested no ketamine.”
“The DA reported that the plaintiff never said she was drugged without her knowledge, admitted to consuming alcohol and drugs voluntarily, and acknowledged she wasn’t forced to engage in any acts,” he continued. “Equally shocking, and knowingly withheld from these young men, the plaintiff did not assert she was helpless, unconscious, or incapacitated at any time in the fraternity house.
“The plaintiff can peddle any story she wants, but intentionally victimizing an innocent person for a money grab is reprehensible,” Saland added.
Regarding Bitter’s niece, I believe her too. The problem is you can’t prosecute every guy a woman says assaulted her on campus, you do need some kind of corroborating evidence. Relationships end badly and sometimes women (or men want revenge and make things up, that is a fact.
As far as campus police is concerned, Bitter is right, many are a joke. Some are very professional, they use retired police officers, but some are completely unqualified to handle anything beyond a lost phone on campus.
Still, the regular police has to rely on them somewhat because there is not enough police to handle every campus case at every university. The solution is to improve the quality of campus police and end such things as not referring “needed” football players for prosecution
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Trafalgar showing a 2 pt lead for Talarico is not good.
Still, I think some of the undecided might be Cornyn voters who will ultimately hold their nose and vote for Paxton.
Hope springs eternal.
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On the other hand a Dem poll showing El Sayed only up 4 is good news.
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Bitterlaw
September 28, 2026 at 11:00 am
Maybe Jan can explain why Abbott is doing better in his run for Governor than Paxton is doing in his Senate campaign.”
O ye of little faith.
The TX electorate is only paying attention to the governor’s race
They are not paying attention to the Senate race, stellar candidate Paxton will be ahead by 20 when they do.
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Trafalgar did not show Talarico up 2, they had a poll last week showing the freak up 1. Big Data poll has Talarico up 2, and I take that as good news given Baris’ bias against the GOP in this cycle that he has opening admitted and confirmed with Massie polling.
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Jan said she was having trouble logging on.
This morning none of my posts would show either, but after an hour the problem seemed to go away on its own.
Some of the people that haven’t been posting might be having trouble, just my guess.
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Right, it is Baris.
However, even +1 for El Freako by Trafalgar is not good either.
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I cannot take Boris seriously. Maybe he did a full pole, but he probably did not.
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Trafalgar seems to be taking a different approach this cycle. After years of cheerleading GOP polling, they’ve either changed their model to sample more Dems, or they’re just making up numbers again (with no cross tabs) but thinking the Dems will win big to justify their figures. The 2022 set of polls was comically bad, VT Senate at 6 points and WA Senate tied were beyond laughable.
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But here Hormuzzle is closed??
hughhewitt
·
Yes, oil is up this AM, but scroll down my feed to the pointer to Alexander Stahel’s newsletter from early this AM. While traders are spooked (or pretend to be) by President Trump’s quick and complete rejection of Iran’s attempts to get a negotiation going, the Strait is open. Reality always wins over posturing in the long and even the medium term. The IRGC did indeed “overplay its hand.”
@POTUS
is right to stiff arm their pleas to talk. If they strike out again as a “Hail Mary,” the response should be an exponential expansion of our last response.
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Trafalgar had a bias to the blue in 2024 of 1.9 and Insider Advantage, 2.26 to the blue.
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Dang the freepassers candidate is broke
@IAPolls2022
TX Senate ad spendings and reservations via
@AdImpact_Pol
Aired spending: 🔴 GOP — $113.8M 🔵 Dem — $62M Future reservations: 🔴 GOP — $58.6M 🔵 Dem — $3.6M
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The imaginary freepasser are for Talarico?
Shame on them.
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GOP — $58.6M”
Wow.
$60 million bucks thrown away on a race Cornyn would have won by 10 without spending any of it.
$60 million that could have been used to win in ME, AK, IA, OH, MI, MN…..
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The freepassers will soon need to pivot to trump is a racist; Epplestein; or Russia hoax 3.0.
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Baris says Cornyn would have been a sure loser in the general because MAGA hates him and wouldn’t turn out for him in November. I disagreed so I voted for him in the primary. That’s just me.
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There are now more and more reports that the Ds blew their wads in September and now are Broke/near broke. Races are not won in the summer.
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Imagine the condition we would be in if Dems nominated Beto in Texas, Stevens in Michigan, and a strong credible candidate in Florida. And we have a shot at Minnesota due to them nominating a corrupt candidate who belongs in jail.
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Tina continues to invent posts to disagree with. Not even worth responding to her lies.
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Morning Consult generic ballot unchanged this week at D+7
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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2104616358935777641
oh no
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Looking back to 2024, there were 73 pollsters who polled more than one state in the election. 5 ended up with a slight skew to the GOP compared to the actual results. The other 68 skewed to the DEMs.
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Another 72 pollsters just polled one state. 9 skewed to the GOP while the other 63 skewed Dem.
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lol
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2104521687664558403
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Baris says Cornyn would have been a sure loser in the general because MAGA hates him and wouldn’t turn out for him in November.”
Zzzzz….
But I guess MAGA won’t complain then if Cornyn voters don’t vote for Paxton, right?
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and a strong credible candidate in Florida.”
I don’t think ANY Democrat could beat Moody.
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EricLDaugh
·
🚨 UPDATE: CNN confirms that MAGA Republicans have SURGED enthusiasm to match the anti-Trump rabid Democrats in the 2026 midterms DEMOCRATS: 71% MAGA GOP: 71% GOOD!! Now get it EVEN HIGHER and vote IN DROVES. 2024 MAGA coming out = we hold the House, hold the Senate, and SAVE Trump 2.0’s second half 🇺🇸 Vote at all costs.
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More reports out of oh that the Ds are not getting the numbers they need.
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If true we also have the issue with Freakico in trouble with blacks in Texas. He stole the d primary.
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okay so lets say that its true that MAGA has matched enthusiasm with rabid anti-Trump dems. That only gets us so far given we are still getting clobbered by independents. You know these brilliant citizens who think they are open-minded and are angry about gas prices so they will turn to the party who wants to ban gas.
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Not sure Beto would do better than Talarico because it is the same base either way. The Dems have a ceiling in TX, Beto came close to breaking it but he got a huge Hispanic vote the Dems no longer have. If you look at Beto’s map he won big all along the Rio Grande and southern Gulf Coast, these areas are closer now.
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If true we also have the issue with Freakico in trouble with blacks in Texas.”
Don’t bet on it. Most will vote for Talarico. Hopefully some of the Crockett diehards won’t.
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So the gop-e needs him especially in the 35 most competitive house races.
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More reports out of oh that the Ds are not getting the numbers they need.”
Too early. Those totals are a drop in the bucket.
Still, better Dems doing worse than better and if its a lasting trend then it could be important.
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So the gop-e needs him especially in the 35 most competitive house races”
Zzzz…
MAGA votes don’t get anybody elected.
What is needed is EVERY R vote for the ticket and a sizable portion of Indies.
THAT wins elections.
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CNN: There Has Been No Decline in MAGA support for Trump”
Baris hardest hit.
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one metric I have noticed some pollsters gathering now is favorability of each party. Both the Dems and GOP have very low favorability, but usually this comparison finds the Dems liked even less.
Not sure if this is another type of “how is your neighbor going to vote?” sort of question, but what it does tell me is that if the GOP can get gas prices down, its not too late to recover some of the electorate.
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Baris isn’t just wrong because he loves Massie and doesn’t want us ever in a war, he also is left-wing when it comes to prison reform. He seems to have a lot of compassion for the welfare of those in prison.
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Here is another episode of “Polls are all over the place”
Vermont Governor:
Scott (R) 44
Janoo (D) 34
Vermont Public Radio, 9/10 – 9/21; 732 LV
Vermont Governor:
Scott (R) 43
Janoo (D) 49
UNH, 9/17 – 9/21; 1418 LV
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Not a surprise. Baris and Massie are not really conservatives, they are basically Bunus who think they are conservatives.
They buy into the left’s favorite boogeyman (the military industrial complex), are foreign policy and economic isolationists, and believe in garbage like returning to the gold standard.
Populism is not conservatism.
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Unfortunately most Rs, at least the primary voters, are now aligned with the left wing populism they borrowed from the Democrats.
Main reason I am no longer a Republican.
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One of the more popular Parker Brothers board games after Monopoly and Clue is RISK. The idea is simple. Its a map of the world arranged into regions, and each player starts with 30 or 35 armies, that are spread out on the map, and the attacker gets 3 dice, the defender only 2, but ties go to the defender. Statistically, the advantage is with the attacker. So if a player just sits around all game on the defensive he always loses.
So it is in real life. There are times when its to your advantage as a country to START the war on your terms before the enemy does on his terms. It is logic and common sense. And it doesn’t make you are warmonger.
People who never want to fight a war have already surrendered to our enemies and are simply waiting around to be taken over.
None of us WANT war. But its a necessity in a world filled with hate and evil.
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The HHR Putinistas will be proud.
Horrific scenes out of Kyiv this morning as Russia used a jet-powered drone to blow up Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences. People are escaping through windows as the building burns. Just like they target kindergartens and schools, now they are bombing science.
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Risk sucks, I hate it when an army cashes in the cards and gets an extra twenty divisions and then goes on a totally unrealistic rampage across three continents until it is totally exhausted (wiping out two or three opponents in the process).
Axis and Allies is a much superior game, even with its limitations..
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Appeal of a Marxist judge.
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“Clarity Campaign Labs” is a little experienced pollster who seems to have taken off the 2024 cycle. But back in 2022 they had DeSantis up only 1 point in the Florida Governor race and they had the Senate race tied. They just dropped a generic ballot poll, Dems up 7, 50/43.
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Prior clarity campaign labs was D+10
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FLORIDA POLL By Change Research
GOVERNOR
🟦 David Jolly: 48%
🟥 Byron Donalds: 46%
—
SENATE
🟥 Ashley Moody (i): 48%
🟦 Angie Nixon: 47%
Change Research-D for @FreedomProjUSA
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Change Research has a D- grade in 2024 for a nearly 6 point skew to the Dems. Obviously they haven’t fixed their problems.
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You might think that pollsters would eventually figure out that Florida isn’t the battleground it used to be.
Trump won by 13 points two years ago.
And yet here is what the pollsters said:
+7 Research company
+4 Victory Insights
+7 Stetson University
+5 Morning Consult
+5 Cygnal (R)
+9 FAU
+5 St. Pete Polls
+6 Hunt Research
+8 Emerson
+4 Redfield and Wilton
+6 Cherry Communication
+5 RMG Research
+4 Marist University
+6 Mason-Dixon
+7 Tarrence (R)
+5 Claremont McKenna/YouGov
+10 U of N. Florida
Winner!
+12 ActiVote
Oh and ActiVote is the one that currently has the generic ballot at Dem +5.6, not +8 or more like all of the above who missed Florida badly two years ago.
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I like the video of 43 year old Detroit Tigers’ pitcher Justin Verlander’s 7 year old daughter running out to the mound to hug him ahead of the manager as he was lifted from his final game. Great moment. Being married to Kate Upton is also great.
GFY
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So I guess the Mets didn’t make the playoffs. A few weeks ago there was that story that said they were still battling for a slot.
i know they have expanded the playoffs but not that much
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I get tingled from this pollster.
-freepassr
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DW – The Mets only finished 14 games out of a playoff spot. They are just signing a 37 year old left hander with 2 prior elbow surgeries away from contending next year.
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https://nypost.com/2026/09/28/lifestyle/this-borough-has-the-best-pizza-in-ny-according-to-surprising-new-report/
Where is NYC to verify the pizza ratings?
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Kate Upton was doubly talented, I can only imagine how motherhood and nursing a child expanded those talents even further.
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Marist a joke.
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they will likely show Brown+10 over Husted
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She has 2 children. Still on fire.
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Some people are not taking Crockett’s non-endorsement very well…
“guys, jasmine is just a Fetterman Democrat. what’s so hard to understand? She’s a F-cking soulless grifter republican who probably just wants to get trashed all day and get paid for it, she’s a F-cking scam artist. The worst kind of politician. It’s simple. Ignore her antics.”
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Of course we have the morons on the other side that claim lifelong conservative R John Cornyn is a RINO communist.
So there are idiots on both sides.
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“Boston is paying immigrants $575 apiece to complete a 10-week course in political organizing, with no legal-status check on applicants and native-born US Bostonians barred from the program entirely, according to the city’s own website.
Immigrants Lead Boston, run by the Mayor’s Office for Immigrant Advancement, is now in its 7th cohort under Mayor Michelle Wu.”
$575 for 10 weeks?
Damm, they are paying those activists some slave wages there….
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Native-born US Bostonians are barred from making $57 a week?
Poor bastards.
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This cannot be true. Hirmuxxke is closed.
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https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-16168675/first-face-mankind-Ancient-human-reconstruction.html
Walt – Did you know him?
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But Hormuzzle is closed.
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The ccp journa is late to the party.
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The article says they may try to resort to military attacks out of desperation. No telling what those idiots will try to pull next. They are insane.
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The WSJ is CCP?
Will the last “true conservative” please turn off the lights?
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But Hormuzzle is closed.”
Them imaginary freepassers are as delusional as Tina.
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How Massachusetts Got It’s Name
********
An early settler of Jamestown VA took some tobacco and his slave and sailed to the Plymouth Bay settlement in New England. He showed them the tobacco and people asked what do you do with it…
The slave said, “Most people smokes it. But my massa chews it.”
And that phrase took hold and became the name if the New England settlement.
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But Hormuzzle is closed.
Can Tina give us the link to Bizarro HHR where the Freepassers post?
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You have lunatics running Iran and a delusional mad man who puts no value on life running Russia. What could go wrong?
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New Thread
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