The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

MIMEIATXAKOHNHNCMNGA
Gap+4.5+3.5+2.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
Count48495051525347464544

Four Senate Polls

DW

And a host of house internal fund-raising polls.

IOWA POLL by Emerson (A)

Senate
🟥 Ashley Hinson: 48%
🟦 Josh Turek: 45%
——
Governor
🟦 Rob Sand: 48%
🟥 Zach Lahn: 43%
——

8/3-4 | 712 LV | ±3.7%

MAINE SENATE POLL For @MajorityPAC (Dem)

🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%
🟥 Susan Collins: 45%
——

Hart Research | 7/27-8/1 | 802 LV

ARKANSAS POLL: Senate – Shoffner (Dem) internal

🟥 Tom Cotton (inc): 46%
🟦 Hallie Shoffner: 43%
——

2040 Strategy Group | 7/17-25 | LV

SOUTH DAKOTA POLL – Senate for @NRSC (R)

🟥 Mike Rounds (R-inc): 56%
🟨 Brian Bengs (I): 33%
——

@POStrategies | 7/6-9 | 500 LV

FLORIDA POLL – Governor

🟥 Byron Donalds: 45%
🟦 David Jolly: 38%
⬜️ Not sure: 17%
—
🟥 Jay Collins: 44%
🟦 David Jolly: 39%
⬜️ Not sure: 17%
——

  • @JmsMadisonInst | 7/20-26 | 1,045 LV

NEVADA POLL: Governor for RGA (R)

🟥 Joe Lombardo (inc): 50%
🟦 Aaron Ford: 43%

Tarrance Group (B+) | 7/25-29 | LV

IA-02 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem)

🟦 Lindsay James: 46%
🟥 Joe Mitchell: 45%
——

@GSG | 7/14-19 |

SC-07 POLL – Vincent (Dem) internal

🟥 Russell Fry (inc): 41.1%
🟦 John Vincent: 36.9%
⬜️ Not sure: 22%

@blueprintpoll | 7/27-28 | 557 LV
holycitysinner.com/politics/…

IN-05 POLL – Ford (Dem) internal

🟥 Victoria Spartz (inc): 48%
🟦 J.D. Ford: 46%
——

  • Source: @DanSpehler (Fox59)
  • Impact Research | 7/16-20 | ±4.9%

AR-02 POLL – Jones (Dem) internal

🟦 Chris Jones: 46%
🟥 French Hill (inc): 43%
——

  • 2040 Strategy Group | 660 LV
  • 4/28-5/8

52 responses to “Four Senate Polls”

  1. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    That D poll showing Cotton in a statistical tie with a Democrat in a Senate race in Arkansas is a scream.

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, not to mention that every election cycle there are “new” polling firms nobody has ever heard of before, and after the cycle, will never hear of again.

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Layoffs fall to the lowest level since the U.S. put men on the moon. Here’s what that says about the economy.Rising sales and a labor shortage are deterring job cuts. Jobless claims haven’t been this low since 1969.

    By 

    Jeffry Bartash

    Like

  4. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The good thing about partisan Dem polls is that it attracts money to a lot of races they are going to lose.

    Let’s hope the Dems invest in the Arkansas senate race.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Phil, not to mention that every election cycle there are “new” polling firms nobody has ever heard of before, and after the cycle, will never hear of again.”

    That is one more reason to trust IncaPolling, it is here every cycle.

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    More evidence Iran is winning…

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was whisked to a secret location in Tehran, shoved into the back seat of a dark car with blacked-out windows and told he was sitting next to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — except he never actually saw the man, according to a bombshell report from Iran Internationa

    The supreme leader refused to meet at his official residence, as is custom.

    Instead, the president was driven to a secret location in Tehran, pulled from his own security convoy and placed in the back of a commercial vehicle.

    The cabin was kept so dark the two men couldn’t see each other — with guards even barring Pezeshkian from shaking the supreme leader’s hand.

    The situation reportedly irritated Pezeshkian, who asked aides whether the person beside him had actually been Khamenei at all — because all he’d heard was someone talking in the dark.”

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    NYT: Moderate Democrats Prepare for ‘War’ Against an Ascendant Left “We are preparing for the next war that is coming,” said Jonathan Cowan, president of Third Way, revealing a new $15 million effort through 2028 to discredit democratic socialism. Their fear: El-Sayed paving a path for a progressive to seize the party’s 2028 presidential nomination — and then lose the general election. “It is deeply troubling to see radical, far-left candidates winning in places that are potentially presidential swing states.”

    Did you notice what the guy slipped in there? Yes, he has NO PROBLEM with DSA candidates in DEEP BLUE races, only competitive races.

    So these supposed Moderates are only upset at losing races, and are NOT upset by the commie ideology.

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    “even barring Pezeshkian from shaking the supreme leader’s hand”

    I guess its sort of creepy shaking hands with a cardboard cutout in the dark.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    President Trump was asked by a reporter today about possibly meeting with Dem Congressional leeaders to get them to agree to his idea about all Americans should be work together to solve pressing problems.

    ●●●●●

    Trump responded by saying, “I have had a quadrazillion meetings with Dem congressmen. They don’t hear what I say. They must have a buildup of wax in their ears. I would rather have a back alley colonoscopy that meet again with them.”

    ■■■■■■

    in response, D Sen. Chuck Shumer and D House Minority Leader Haakeem Jeffries held a joint press conference.

    Sen. Schumer said, “This is just like Fascist Trump. He lies all the time about numbers. There is no number called quadrazillion. Any time he talks about numbers, you know it is a lie. He cannot tell the truth about anything. What a fascist! “

    Jeffries added, “Just like the Nazis, Trump brings up an imagined problem–excessive ear wax. And soon he will decree that everyone MUST go to a doctor to have it removed. He does not care that health care costs right now are already unaffordable to most Americans. Sure, his billionaire buddies will have no problem paying for removing their ear wax. Trump does not care about anyone else.”

    “Also, this will be yet another step in undermining personal constitutional rights like abortion. He wants to regulate abortion, your sex life, and now relate how much ear wax a person is allowed to have. What if it is a tra sge Der perso. Who shows up for ear wax removal? Will he deny them service? VERY LIKELY!”

    Sen. Schumer adds, ” And now we have Trump saying he favors back alley colonoscopies. Is he crazy? Most assuredly. He favors health care choices like back alley coloniscopies. All his Republicam friends do. We have to stop this Trimp madness. The only way to do this is to vote straight D in November. Otherwise the country will totally cease to exist. There will be no more monthly social security checks going out. No Medicare, medicaid, no SNAP assistance government assistance checks, no education asdistance funds, the kids in K-12 piblic schools will all starve to death without govt food subsidies for the school breakfast and school lunch programs…..”

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Yes of course the Supreme leader is talking. lol.

    Like

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    In my opinion, anyone “exiting” a 9th story window is comitting suicide.

    Not so, says UK coroner.

    “A heavily pregnant woman died when she jumped from the ninth floor of a tower block but did not intend to take her own life, an inquest has found.

    Emma Atkinson, 38, exited the window of a flat in Shakespeare Towers, in the Burmantofts area of Leeds.

    Recording a narrative verdict, assistant coroner Naomi McLoughlin said there was not enough evidence to suggest it was suicide, but the act of climbing out of the window was deliberate.

    Emma, who had five children, climbed out of the window of her father’s flat at about 10:20 BST that morning.

    Emma told her father she was “just getting some air” and had removed the safety catches, before saying “I’m off” as she went out of the window, he said in a written statement to the court.”

    Like

  12. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    The 50 states are all females and have gathered for a weekend conference.

    It seems that last night, one of the states was engaged in unseemly behavior in her room with a bunch of young men who traded money or clothing for s-e-x.

    All the states met to try to get to the bottom of it and find out which state was at fault.

    It was not Maine as she had an air tight alibi when men in one room were heard hollering, “BANGOR, BANGOR!”

    AZ said, “Not accusing anyone particular, but SOMEONE showed up this morning wearing a sexy brand NEW JERSEY…”

    New Jersey says, “Was not me cavorting with a bunch of men. Only guy I have been with is TRENTON.”

    Homely Nebraska volunteered she had not been with any men since LINCOLN was president.

    New Hampshire, said she has sworn off men. She prefers EFFINGHAM.

    California was enjoying the whole scene and popped another mint in her mouth from the SACK OF MENTOS that she had on her lap.

    Maryland said, “I am so tired. Can I just go take ANNAPOLIS?” Pretty please?

    Ohio piped in and said, “Well I heard Pennsylvania talk about INTERCOURSE and DUBOIS. I think it might be her.

    South Carolina said that she suspected North Carolina as she was always living the life of RALEIGH.

    Arkansas chimed in and said her neighbor Louisiana had a red pole out in front of her door last night.

    Louisiana replies, “It was a BATON ROUGE.”

    Florida wondered aloud if it was Oregon. Oregon remained calm, pulled out a pack of cigarettes, and lit up a SALEM.

    Kansas pointed to the state sitting between Washington and Montana and said “I KNOW IT WAS YOU!”

    The accused state jumped up and confessed, “I AM fond of the young BOISE eh.

    I DA HO!!!”

    Like

  13. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    In my opinion, anyone “exiting” a 9th story window is comitting suicide.

    Putin agrees. Some people in Russia exit the window several times before they die.

    Like

  14. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  15. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The $20 burrito story/tweet/ whatever from the stupid Rino gas lighter is dumb. The millennial should not pay $20 at a chain. Go to a small business owner, and pay $12.

    If the millennial is a stoodent, go to the grocery store and by frozen burritos. I see them 3 for $1. You can add toppings like cheese or sour cream or whatever on top.

    No way in hell you should pay $20. And no way in hell should you even teeet that you did pay it.

    Like

  16. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Yikes


    @EricLDaugh

    ·

    🚨 UPDATE: Wisconsin socialist governor candidate Francesca Hong (D) doesn’t only want to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas, she also wants to cancel Halloween In the most awkward answer ever: Q: What do you have against Halloween? HONG: *Stammering* I’m just not a fun person.

    Like

  17. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I thought a burrito was a small donkey.

    >………

    Got my weeks mixed up. Bridge not until next week. I figured that out when I drove there and I was the only one there.

    So I got a haircut and gas tank fill up. So you are stuck with me today.

    Like

  18. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Putin agrees. Some people in Russia exit the window several times before they die.”

    Yes.

    No wonder Tina and Janzam love Putin.

    He even has a squad of helpful guys who assist people to exit the window.

    Like

  19. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Walt hasn’t been this confused since Helen of Troy stood him up on their strip backgammon date.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am sure Hong is no fan of the 4th of July either.

    Of course, we would still have Juneteenth, so there is that.

    And May Day!

    Like

  21. DW Avatar
    DW

    From RRH: “El-Sayed did an interview with Kaitlan Collins where she asked him whether he supports funding for defensive systems like the Iron Dome in Israel. He said he opposes it because there’s no difference between offensive and defensive weapons.”

    So he’s mad at Israel for not lining up so they call can get their throats slit.

    Like

  22. DW Avatar
    DW

    “HONG: *Stammering* I’m just not a fun person.”

    But she is DESPERATE to control everyone else’s lives demanding compliance with what she thinks they can and cannot do.

    Like

  23. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    jason,

    Yeah, I got the wrong Thursday.

    The most upsetting thing was I had gone to all the trouble of putting on my lucky pair of underwear that I always put on for the days I play bridge.

    I hope my wife has me scheduled to do a load of laundry before next Thursday.

    Like

  24. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Just finished another Phillip Gulley book, “Life Goes On.”

    very funny…

    Like

  25. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I feel like musing today. Not sure what to muse about between now and when we go over the the Berkeley County Youth Fair to view the exhibits, people watch, eat country ham sandwiches, fries, elephant ear… Last year the price for an elephant ear had gone up to $7 or $8 ! Worrying about what they might be charging this year.

    Tonight is also the tractor pull contest and the big name entertainment performing…

    *****

    I found an appropriate sized flat stone to use as a headstone at the top of Manny T.’s grave…

    ******

    I labored mightier to write that long spiof post about Trump, war wax, and back alley colonoscopies so I hope it gave you a chuckle.

    Same for the post about the states and IDAHO…

    ****

    The musical about ancient cliff dwellers is now on the back burner until I feel creative.

    I would appreciate any suggested topics for me to muse about for the next few hours until the wife returns home and we go to the fair…

    Like

  26. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    “There are two kinds of people on the planet

    In the room ot on the street

    The ones make it better when they enter,

    and thise who .ame it better when they leave..”

    Like

  27. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    The above are words to a song by Billy Simon he sings while playing his guitar.

    Like

  28. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    sorry for bad typing.

    You get the drift.

    Like

  29. DW Avatar
    DW

    A special Homer Hedgehog will be in the new Friday/weekend thread that will appear at 9:00 a.m.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Musing…

    Why do wives come home and want to talk with their husband and interrupt whatever the husband may be doing about something that could wait?

    Like

  31. DW Avatar
    DW

    Haley Stevens just hugged the Jew hater and Fetterman hater in Michigan.

    Like

  32. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @EWErickson

    ·

    18h

    Has anyone yet provided evidence of the $20.00 burrito that does not involve Uber Eats or DoorDash delivering it?

    I am sure this slob has eaten a few $20 burritos at one meal.

    Like

  33. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/2085462848709304458

    The free passers will be mad about this. Trump to ban birth tourism.

    Like

  34. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    The free passers will be mad about this. Trump to ban birth tourism.

    Exactly how is that going to be enforced?

    Like

  35. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/08/06/us-news/jd-vance-takes-gloves-off-on-conservative-columnist-who-mocked-gen-zers-for-complaining-about-20-burritos/

    Despite Tina’s reporting, Thiessen was actually making fun of people complaining about alleged $20 burritos.

    Like

  36. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I made no remark on Thiessen I don’t follow him at all. With that said if a stoodent is paying $20 for a burrito (and it could be in California which raised minimum wage) , he or she is dumb

    Like

  37. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    $20 fast food*

    Like

  38. DW Avatar
    DW

    Speaking of fast food. Dunkin Donuts are now just terrible. On day one they already taste stale, and for that you have to pay $15 for a dozen of these hockey pucks. But our local grocery store puts out fresh donuts that taste outstandingly good. $5 for a dozen of them.

    Like

  39. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Exactly, people seriously blotch about things bejnf expensive, yet they buy an $8 cup of coffee at Starbucks. Same coffee is 99 cents at McDonald’s.

    or Brew your own.

    Like

  40. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Dunkin’ are the worst too. Go to a neighborhood donut shop instead

    Like

  41. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    (or store)*

    Like

  42. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Fraudci contempt referral is sent to the Doj, which is reviewing it. The free passers are having a bad day.

    Like

  43. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Never forget Tina’s first criticism for months was that Fauci voted for Hillary Clinton. She then pretended Fauci just snuck into Trump’s daily briefings rather than being made the face of the COVID response.

    Like

  44. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Dunkin Donuts sales are falling. To boost sales they have decided to add bourbon to the batter and change their name to Drunken Donutz.

    Liked by 1 person

  45. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Oh no, freepasseds will have to front again for fraudci,

    JUST IN: 3 STATES have now launched SUBPOENAS at Dr. Anthony Fauci — Florida, West Virginia, and Louisiana

    Like

  46. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Never forget the freepassers wanted metals for fraudci and blindly accepted 50 vax boosters.

    Like

  47. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Nobody at HHR advocated mandatory vaccines. Tina knows this.

    Like

  48. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16035361/bodies-decomposing-Chicago-funeral-home.html

    You are supposed to bury or burn them? Who knew?

    Like

  49. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I haven’t eaten a donut in 30 years.

    I will stick with onion bagels if I have to eat something with that shape.

    Like

  50. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Never forget the freepassers”

    Is giving Trump a free pass for appointing Fauci and making Fauci the face of COVID and giving Fauci all the power he required to implement the policies Tina is attacking a free pass?

    A friend wants to know.

    Like

  51. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Watching the 11-11 game going on the 12th inning between the Sox….both White and Red.

    Like

  52. DW Avatar
    DW

    new thread

    Like

Leave a comment