The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

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Four Senate Polls

DW

And a host of house internal fund-raising polls.

IOWA POLL by Emerson (A)

Senate
🟥 Ashley Hinson: 48%
🟦 Josh Turek: 45%
——
Governor
🟦 Rob Sand: 48%
🟥 Zach Lahn: 43%
——

8/3-4 | 712 LV | ±3.7%

MAINE SENATE POLL For @MajorityPAC (Dem)

🟦 Troy Jackson: 49%
🟥 Susan Collins: 45%
——

Hart Research | 7/27-8/1 | 802 LV

ARKANSAS POLL: Senate – Shoffner (Dem) internal

🟥 Tom Cotton (inc): 46%
🟦 Hallie Shoffner: 43%
——

2040 Strategy Group | 7/17-25 | LV

SOUTH DAKOTA POLL – Senate for @NRSC (R)

🟥 Mike Rounds (R-inc): 56%
🟨 Brian Bengs (I): 33%
——

@POStrategies | 7/6-9 | 500 LV

FLORIDA POLL – Governor

🟥 Byron Donalds: 45%
🟦 David Jolly: 38%
⬜️ Not sure: 17%
—
🟥 Jay Collins: 44%
🟦 David Jolly: 39%
⬜️ Not sure: 17%
——

  • @JmsMadisonInst | 7/20-26 | 1,045 LV

NEVADA POLL: Governor for RGA (R)

🟥 Joe Lombardo (inc): 50%
🟦 Aaron Ford: 43%

Tarrance Group (B+) | 7/25-29 | LV

IA-02 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem)

🟦 Lindsay James: 46%
🟥 Joe Mitchell: 45%
——

@GSG | 7/14-19 |

SC-07 POLL – Vincent (Dem) internal

🟥 Russell Fry (inc): 41.1%
🟦 John Vincent: 36.9%
⬜️ Not sure: 22%

@blueprintpoll | 7/27-28 | 557 LV
holycitysinner.com/politics/…

IN-05 POLL – Ford (Dem) internal

🟥 Victoria Spartz (inc): 48%
🟦 J.D. Ford: 46%
——

  • Source: @DanSpehler (Fox59)
  • Impact Research | 7/16-20 | ±4.9%

AR-02 POLL – Jones (Dem) internal

🟦 Chris Jones: 46%
🟥 French Hill (inc): 43%
——

  • 2040 Strategy Group | 660 LV
  • 4/28-5/8

11 responses to “Four Senate Polls”

  1. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    That D poll showing Cotton in a statistical tie with a Democrat in a Senate race in Arkansas is a scream.

    Like

  2. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, not to mention that every election cycle there are “new” polling firms nobody has ever heard of before, and after the cycle, will never hear of again.

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Layoffs fall to the lowest level since the U.S. put men on the moon. Here’s what that says about the economy.Rising sales and a labor shortage are deterring job cuts. Jobless claims haven’t been this low since 1969.

    By 

    Jeffry Bartash

    Like

  4. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The good thing about partisan Dem polls is that it attracts money to a lot of races they are going to lose.

    Let’s hope the Dems invest in the Arkansas senate race.

    Like

  5. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Phil, not to mention that every election cycle there are “new” polling firms nobody has ever heard of before, and after the cycle, will never hear of again.”

    That is one more reason to trust IncaPolling, it is here every cycle.

    Like

  6. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    More evidence Iran is winning…

    Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was whisked to a secret location in Tehran, shoved into the back seat of a dark car with blacked-out windows and told he was sitting next to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — except he never actually saw the man, according to a bombshell report from Iran Internationa

    The supreme leader refused to meet at his official residence, as is custom.

    Instead, the president was driven to a secret location in Tehran, pulled from his own security convoy and placed in the back of a commercial vehicle.

    The cabin was kept so dark the two men couldn’t see each other — with guards even barring Pezeshkian from shaking the supreme leader’s hand.

    The situation reportedly irritated Pezeshkian, who asked aides whether the person beside him had actually been Khamenei at all — because all he’d heard was someone talking in the dark.”

    Like

  7. DW Avatar
    DW

    NYT: Moderate Democrats Prepare for ‘War’ Against an Ascendant Left “We are preparing for the next war that is coming,” said Jonathan Cowan, president of Third Way, revealing a new $15 million effort through 2028 to discredit democratic socialism. Their fear: El-Sayed paving a path for a progressive to seize the party’s 2028 presidential nomination — and then lose the general election. “It is deeply troubling to see radical, far-left candidates winning in places that are potentially presidential swing states.”

    Did you notice what the guy slipped in there? Yes, he has NO PROBLEM with DSA candidates in DEEP BLUE races, only competitive races.

    So these supposed Moderates are only upset at losing races, and are NOT upset by the commie ideology.

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    “even barring Pezeshkian from shaking the supreme leader’s hand”

    I guess its sort of creepy shaking hands with a cardboard cutout in the dark.

    Like

  9. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    President Trump was asked by a reporter today about possibly meeting with Dem Congressional leeaders to get them to agree to his idea about all Americans should be work together to solve pressing problems.

    ●●●●●

    Trump responded by saying, “I have had a quadrazillion meetings with Dem congressmen. They don’t hear what I say. They must have a buildup of wax in their ears. I would rather have a back alley colonoscopy that meet again with them.”

    ■■■■■■

    in response, D Sen. Chuck Shumer and D House Minority Leader Haakeem Jeffries held a joint press conference.

    Sen. Schumer said, “This is just like Fascist Trump. He lies all the time about numbers. There is no number called quadrazillion. Any time he talks about numbers, you know it is a lie. He cannot tell the truth about anything. What a fascist! “

    Jeffries added, “Just like the Nazis, Trump brings up an imagined problem–excessive ear wax. And soon he will decree that everyone MUST go to a doctor to have it removed. He does not care that health care costs right now are already unaffordable to most Americans. Sure, his billionaire buddies will have no problem paying for removing their ear wax. Trump does not care about anyone else.”

    “Also, this will be yet another step in undermining personal constitutional rights like abortion. He wants to regulate abortion, your sex life, and now relate how much ear wax a person is allowed to have. What if it is a tra sge Der perso. Who shows up for ear wax removal? Will he deny them service? VERY LIKELY!”

    Sen. Schumer adds, ” And now we have Trump saying he favors back alley colonoscopies. Is he crazy? Most assuredly. He favors health care choices like back alley coloniscopies. All his Republicam friends do. We have to stop this Trimp madness. The only way to do this is to vote straight D in November. Otherwise the country will totally cease to exist. There will be no more monthly social security checks going out. No Medicare, medicaid, no SNAP assistance government assistance checks, no education asdistance funds, the kids in K-12 piblic schools will all starve to death without govt food subsidies for the school breakfast and school lunch programs…..”

    Like

  10. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Yes of course the Supreme leader is talking. lol.

    Like

  11. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    In my opinion, anyone “exiting” a 9th story window is comitting suicide.

    Not so, says UK coroner.

    “A heavily pregnant woman died when she jumped from the ninth floor of a tower block but did not intend to take her own life, an inquest has found.

    Emma Atkinson, 38, exited the window of a flat in Shakespeare Towers, in the Burmantofts area of Leeds.

    Recording a narrative verdict, assistant coroner Naomi McLoughlin said there was not enough evidence to suggest it was suicide, but the act of climbing out of the window was deliberate.

    Emma, who had five children, climbed out of the window of her father’s flat at about 10:20 BST that morning.

    Emma told her father she was “just getting some air” and had removed the safety catches, before saying “I’m off” as she went out of the window, he said in a written statement to the court.”

    Like

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