Friday with new polling

This from UMass / YouGov, probably the most under-pushed poll I have ever seen with an absurd number of undecided among a poll of 1000 adults.

US President 2028
🟥JD Vance 36%
🟦Gavin Newsom 33%

🟥JD Vance 36%
🟦AOC 33%
——
🟦Gavin Newsom 33%
🟥Tucker Carlson 25%

🟦AOC 32%
🟥Tucker Carlson 25%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 38%
🟥Republican 35%

75 responses to “Friday with new polling”

  1. Scheffler demonstrating the old truism that you cannot win The Masters on Friday, but you can lose it.

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  2. He is still only 4 shots off the lead, don’t count him out yet.

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  3. jason yupanqui Avatar

    “Two hundred chimpanzees are embroiled in a ‘civil war’

    The world’s largest-known group of chimpanzees split into two factions that are now engaged in deadly combat”

    Hey Walt, are you on this?

    Liked by 1 person

  4. jason yupanqui Avatar

    See that shot?

    And who picks Amanda Balionis’ jacket?

    Geezus.

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  5. jason yupanqui Avatar

    I don’t know where you guys get primate and earthquake news, I just rely on HHR.

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  6. yeah, he has recovered some after starting +2 for the day, having bogeyed a couple of holes.

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  7. jason yupanqui Avatar

    I would vote for Gavin Newsome before I would vote for Tucker Carlson.

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  8. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Scottie just drove it into the water, another bogey. But still hanging in there.

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  9. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Jonathan Turley

    MS NOW’s Stephanie Ruhle actually praised Iran for “the fact that they have a deep belief in something. That’s unfathomable to [Trump]. That they will die for.” Of course, she was not referring to the tens of thousands of protesters executed by the regime for their deep beliefs.”

    I think the Nazis “believed in something” too.

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  10. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Interesting

    “Trump won 2,589 counties in each of the past three elections. From 2020 to 2025, those counties gained 5.4 million people due to net migration — which measures how many people move into and out of an area. The 433 counties where Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris carried the day saw a net loss of 5.43 million people.  

    And the 121 counties in which Trump won at least one of the past three elections saw a net gain of 29,000 people over those years.”

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  11. Interesting political stats. Where were they gleaned from?

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  12. Something needed to be done to stop Iran from gaining nukes as well as spreading chaos throughout the middle east. He was the first president to attempt to do something about it, but he stopped short. Big mistake. As much as it pains me to say so, Trump is being played with this so called “ceasefire”. His assertion that we have obtained regime change is nonsense. Hardliners are clearly still running the show – just the names have changed. The strait was supposed to be opened up as a condition for the ceasefire and it is clearly not. The Iranians are liars and cheats and always will be. Same old playbook. Play for time and delay, delay, delay. Have we not learned anything?

    Finish them and quit playing their game.

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  13. jason yupanqui Avatar

    It seems the mullahs have lost power but the police state has gained power.

    This is not regime change. But the IRGC is a lot more unpopular than even the mullahs.

    It’s going to take a lot of money and sacrifice by the citizens for Iran to rebuild its influence and military. The seeds are planted for regime change.

    What can’t be allowed is for Iran to charge tolls or escape sanctions that restricts its oil sales.

    I think the main gain so far besides decimating Iran’s military/industrial sector is the realization by the Gulf States and Saudis that Iran is indeed their enemy, not Israel.

    These countries also now understand that without US support, they are very vulnerable.

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  14. jason yupanqui Avatar

    The Iranians are liars and cheats and always will be.”

    I guess you disagree with Michael Moore that they are a “great civilization”

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  15. Its a “great civilization” to the far left, because that is exactly what they want to do here. They want absolute power, and then they will use it to eliminate people like us. Its already started with Biden’s weaponization of the legal system. Wait until they get back into power when they will weaponize health care, and weaponize the economy, employment, everything. You either become far left, or you will be eliminated. They will use the classic Soviet tactic of making 100% of the citizens technical criminals, so they can then persecute whoever they want.

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  16. what’s the projected cut at the Masters, +3?

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  17. jason yupanqui Avatar

    I know a Marxist will probably win in CA, but I really hope its not this scumbag.

    And this woman better get ready, the MSM is about to make her into a MAGA whore in 3,2,1 …

    https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2026/04/10/former-staffer-accuses-eric-swalwell-of-sexual-assault-n2201172

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  18. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Yes, +3

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  19. I like Patrick Reed’s chances. Scottie too many mistakes today.

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  20. jason yupanqui Avatar

    A lot will probably change tomorrow. If Scottie is within 4 or 5 by the end of the day, he has a chance on Sunday.

    Reed is playing well, bogey free today. Well, he has like 5 feet on 18, don’t want to jinx him

    But anyone even or better could still win.

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  21. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Like Cameron Young.

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  22. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Pretty clear.

    “We’re going to find out in about 24 hours. We’re going to know soon,” Trump said in a phone interview when asked if he thought the talks would be successful.

    “We have a reset going. We’re loading up the ships with the best ammunition, the best weapons ever made — even better than what we did previously and we blew them apart,” he said.

    “But we’re loading up the ships. We’re loading up the ships with the best weapons ever made, even at a higher level than we use to do a complete decimation.

    “And if we don’t have a deal, we will be using them, and we will be using them very effectively.” [….]

    “You’re dealing against people that we don’t know whether or not they tell the truth,” Trump told The Post.

    “To our face, they’re getting rid of all nuclear weapons, everything’s gone. And then they go out to the press and say, ‘No, we’d like to enrich.’ So we’ll find out.”

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  23. jason yupanqui Avatar

    I think part of this cease fire is exactly that. The US ships were probably running out of munitions.

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  24. jason yupanqui Avatar

    This woman is lucky that Swallwell has a lot of rivals in the Dem party.

    If he was already the nominee, different story.

    So maybe she won’t be crucified after all

    “Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor was reeling Friday after an ex-staffer accused him of sexual assault, with multiple staffers resigning and both a prominent ally and rival candidates calling on the California Democrat to exit the race.

    The exodus, which began just before the San Francisco Chronicle published a report detailing a former staffer’s claims, jolted California’s marquee race just weeks before ballots start landing in voters’ mailboxes. The former staffer told the newspaper that Swalwell had sexual encounters with her while working for him, and that he sexually assaulted her twice when she was too drunk to consent.”

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  25. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Steyer the new favorite on Polymarket.

    72% odds Swallwell drops out.

    Good.

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  26. Is Jason coming to Philadelphia for the World Cup?

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  27. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Steyer is a billionaire Marxist like Soros.

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  28. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Tickets are very expensive. I am trying to see if you can bring a llama as a service animal.

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  29. jason yupanqui Avatar

    I jinxed Reed.

    Mcilroy with 5 shot lead. Lucky pitch went in.

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  30. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Rep. Jimmy Gomez, a longtime friend and early endorser of Swalwell’s campaign for Governor, leaves the campaign and encourages him to drop out of the race.”

    I hope he stays in, of course.

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  31. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Ghana vs. Croatia, cheapest ticket is $723

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  32. https://phillyfwc26.com/fifa-fan-fest

    Llamas welcome during Peru matches.

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  33. https://www.discoverlancaster.com/events/official-world-cup-watch-party/

    Lancaster watch parties.

    Even though Jason wants me to shoot myself AND I hate soccer, I am looking out for him.

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  34. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Thanks, I might attend some of those parties.

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  35. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Michelob Beer Garden sounds ok.

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  36. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Even though Jason wants me to shoot myself”

    Ma, the fish are trying to bait us!

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  37. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Thinking of applying for a vendor license to serve grilled guinea pig and deep fried scrapple.

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  38. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Alas, neither Chile or Peru made it to the World Cup.

    Both Iran and Iraq qualified.

    Imagine that as the final

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  39. jason yupanqui Avatar

    I might have to root for Cabo Verde.

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  40. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Probably 5000 to 1.

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  41. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Gallego 3 days ago:

    Just three days earlier on April 7, Gallego replied to a social media account that had claimed multiple women accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct, implying that the poster wasn’t trustworthy. 

    In another post on the same day, Gallego exhibited his continued support for Swalwell. 

    “When you are in first place, is when they target you,” he wrote. “Eric is a fighter and he will win the Governors race.”

    Gallego today:

    “What is described is indefensible,” Gallego said in a Friday afternoon statement. “Women who come forward with accounts like this deserve to be heard with respect, not questioned or dismissed. I regret having come to his defense on social media prior to knowing all the information. I am equally as shocked and upset about what has transpired.” 

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  42. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Good. This scumbag came up with the 40 year old bogus sexual harassment case against Roy Moore, which cost him a senate seat in Alabama.

    Don’t get me wrong, Roy Moore was a moron who didn’t respect the Constitution and was twice impeached as Alabama SC justice and should have been nowhere near the Senate. But I said at the time nobody should have their career ended by completely uncorroborated 40 year old accusations.

    “Washington Post journalist Thomas Pham LeGro has pleaded GUILTY to possession of child pornography in DC. FBI agents executed a search warrant at his residence and seized several electronic devices. During the execution of the warrant, agents observed what appeared to be fractured pieces of a hard drive hidden under a rug in the basement of the residence. After looking at LeGros’ laptop they found a folder that contained 11 videos depicting children being r*ped.  These videos depicted adult men s*xually abusing prepubescent children and forcing them to engage in s*x acts.”

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  43. This guy was Amoral Scumbag’s hero.

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  44. Btw, I have a new theory about Amoral Scumbag.

    I think this was his last post:

    Robbie

    November 21, 2023 at 9:58 am

    Jason fraud claims to be for DeSantis and even said DeSantis’ strategy of only saying nice things about Trump while Trump kicked him in the nuts every day and led to a 50-point deficit was the perfect strategy, but he only gets enraged anytime anyone says anything negative about conman Donnie.

    Jason fraud is playing the same game Tinfoil played in 2016. She claimed to be for Kasich, but always made fun of him and never said a bad word about her man “T” as she called him back then. I think she knows refers to Trump as her Fuhrer now. That’s what the fraud is doing now. He pretends to be for DeSantis, but only gets agitated when anyone is a meany to poor Mr. Trump.”

    Maybe he didn’t die. He was massively invested in the idea that Trump was poison to the R party. Around the time he disappeared it was becoming clear Trump would be the nominee again. He probably intended to come back on election day 2024 and give us the “I told you so”.

    I don’t think he could live with the humiliation here.

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  45. Jeffries think Swalwell is not fit to be an “elected official”

    But he is ok for Congress.

    https://x.com/RepJeffries/status/2042762096769646898/photo/1

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  46. The Dems had to get rid of at least one “front runner” in CA.

    Maybe they figured out how to do it.

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  47. jason yupanqui Avatar

    No wonder Iran wants Lebanon included in the ceasefire.

    “Within a minute, the IDF eliminated 180+ Hezbollah terrorists in 3 areas simultaneously in a large-scale strike based on precise and high-quality intelligence. ~100 targets were struck simultaneously across Beirut, the Beqaa, and southern Lebanon, including main command centers, military structures used by Hezbollah commanders and multiple terror infrastructure sites used by top Hezbollah operatives.”

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  48. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Nobody here, so I guess I will re-read my own posts and bask in the brilliance of them.

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  49. I confirmed that it is legal to own a llama in Pennsylvania

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  50. jason yupanqui Avatar

    This is news? There are over 13,000 registered alpacas in PA, llamas are fewer but there is still a lot of them.

    https://www.facebook.com/LuckyUsFarm/

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  51. jason yupanqui Avatar

    LuckyUsFarm has a llama lounge.

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  52. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Swalwell wants to thread the needle. This statement means he has to admit to the affairs but is going to claim they were consensual.

    I don’t think it will work but I would love for him to stay in, ballots will be mailed out May 4.

    “Swalwell posted a video response on social media Friday night, and it was a disaster from the opening sentence. “A lot has been said about me today through anonymous allegations,” he said, looking directly into the camera. There’s just one problem with that framing — the allegations aren’t all anonymous. Some women have publicly identified themselves. That’s not a technicality. That’s a lie, and it’s the first thing out of his mouth.

    He continued, “These allegations of sexual assault are flat false. They are absolutely false. They did not happen. They have never happened, and I will fight them with everything that I have.”

    Related: Eric Swalwell’s Political Future is Collapsing Fast

    But then came the part that should haunt him: “I do not suggest to you in any way that I’m perfect or that I’m a saint. I have certainly made mistakes in judgment in my past, but those mistakes are between me and my wife, and to her, I apologize deeply for putting her in this position.”

    He denied the assaults. Then, in the very next breath, he apologized to his wife for “mistakes in judgment” and begged the audience not to doubt him.”

    In other words, he fooled around with the staffers, but did not assault them. Good luck.

    Pelosi, Queen of the Dems, has called for him to resign. Bigger fish than him, Joe Biden, did not survive.

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  53. 🌍 Global M6+ Earthquake Activity Has Stopped Since April 4 🌍There have been no earthquakes above magnitude 6.0 recorded worldwide since April 4.That is now several days without a single major seismic release anywhere on Earth.Under normal conditions, multiple M6+ events occur every week across active fault zones.Right now, that pattern has completely paused.Smaller quakes continue, but larger energy releases are absent.This kind of gap stands out.All major fault systems are still under load. When larger events pause like this, the energy does not disappear.Is this just a natural lull, or is stress building across multiple fault systems?Worth watching closely over the coming days.#Earthquakes #SeismicActivity #Geology #EarthScience #GlobalWatch

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  54. 13,000+ registered llamas in PA.

    they really need to clean up the voter rolls…

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  55. I bet a lot of them would vote for Fernando Llamas.

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  56. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Has Gloria AllRed been hired yet?

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  57. jason yupanqui Avatar

    13,000+ registered llamas in PA.

    they really need to clean up the voter rolls…”

    Shhhh…. most are Republicans.

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  58. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Pelosi, Queen of the Dems, has called for him to resign”

    Huh, drop out.

    He is not good enough for CA gov, but perfectly ok for Congress.

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  59. jason yupanqui Avatar

    Rumor is Fang Fang is really pissed Swalwell cheated on her and the CCP will be issuing a statement soon denouncing him.

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  60. It is illegal to marry a llama in PA.

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  61. Another good call by POTUS:

    ”“Diego Garcia, a strategically placed island base, has enabled U.S. power throughout the Indian Ocean region, directly supporting and engaging in strike missions today in Iran, and during the Global War on Terror in Afghanistan,” Brent Sadler, a 26-year Navy veteran and senior research fellow at Heritage, told The Daily Signal. 

    “Loss of this base or compromising its operational viability through Chinese (or other powers’) encroachment on it would be a severe blow to U.S. and Western influence and power projection in the region not easily replaced.”

    Gardiner credited Trump’s opposition for the bill’s defeat, saying Trump was the “key reason” behind it.

    “The United States has stopped the Chagos surrender deal from moving forward and this is great news for the American people, and also, frankly, for the British people, as well,” he said”

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  62. Adam Schiff has not only called for Swalwell to get out of the governor’s race but also to resign from Congress. I guess they’re not BFFs.

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  63. From Breitbart:

    ”The upcoming June 2 California gubernatorial primary is not like other primaries. Instead of one Democrat primary winner and one Republican primary winner facing off in the general election, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election… regardless of party. Now go and look at the polls. As you can see, there’s a very real chance two Republicans could win the primary, which would ensure a Republican becomes governor of California.

    The media and Democrats cannot allow that possibility, so it’s been decided that Swalwell must be sacrificed.  His sacrifice will break the three-way tie between the three top Democrats — Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer — and once Swalwell’s 15 percent support moves to the other two, one or both is certain to go on to compete in the general election, which practically ensures Democrats hold onto California’s governor’s seat.

    You see, if Swalwell were polling at 30 percent instead of his current 15 percent, the media cover-up of these allegations would continue because no one would be sweating a Republican sneaking into victory.

    But he’s not polling at 30 percent. Early voting begins in a few weeks, and the media knew something ruthless had to be immediately done to protect Democrats, so the media chose to slit their pal’s throat.

    Yeah, there’s no small amount of satisfaction in watching this appalling excuse for a human being get his. Trust me, though, this takedown of Swalwell has nothing to do with justice, truth, or protecting women.”

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  64. GFY, Janzam

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  65. in return, wish you a good weekend, Paul.

    Liked by 1 person

  66. JayTC53

    ·

    3h

    “Iran is winning” is the new “I just got my 4th Covid Booster”

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  67. I apologize, janzam. I was being an idiotic asshole for no particular reason at all.

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  68. I was being an idiotic asshole for no particular reason at all.

    This is why Paul’s A-hole application has been in deferred status for years.

    Like

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