Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.0 / 56.0-15.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.1 / 53.1-8.0

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

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Gap+4.3+2.2+1.0+1.6+1.8+2.0+6.0+6.2+6.3+7.0
Count48495150494847464544

McCormick’s lead just dropped from 40,040 to 39,486

Will he survive? Are we watching the early stages of the “Al Franken” theft, 2.0?

–DW

72 responses to “McCormick’s lead just dropped from 40,040 to 39,486”

  1. It’s much harder to “find” 40,000 balls than it was to find 3,000 in WA in 2004 or a mere 300 or so in MN 2008.

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  2. Balls should have been “ballots,” but here we are.🙄

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  3. This is a great test to get a gage on what the margin of fraud is in PA. $40K seems like a lot but nothing will surprise me given the outright fraud we saw in 2020.

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  4. Philly is a bottomless well from which ballots can be drawn until they get what is needed.

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  5. But they seem to have waiting nearly a week for all the rural areas to finish updating their counts, which is why McCormick’s lead had been slowly growing. But that finally stopped, so now they know what they need. The first 554 got wiped out this afternoon.

    Now they just need to do that 80 more times, and then they will say all the ballots are now in.

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  6. I heard an interview with McCormick this afternoon. He said his lawyers are working to ensure that he will be the next Senator from PA. Take that for what you deem it to be worth.

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  7. Too big of a mountain to climb with Trump being the incoming sheriff.

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  8. oahodges, I sure hope you are right. I hear that in Philly, they have incredible mountain climbing gear available.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. The lead just dropped again, this time down to 39,405

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  10. And yet the CNN page continues to say Philly is only 92% reported in. It jumps to 100% when Casey takes the lead.

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  11. The latest report is only 20,000 provisional ballots from Election Day and 600 mail in ballots in Philadelphia.

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  12. Breaking. Rs retain control of house.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Who called it?

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  14. @rpyers

    “New update in #AZ06 (Pima County?), breaks 56.4%/41.3% for incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani, spiking his lead by 1,609 votes, putting him ahead of Democrat Kirsten Engel by 3,702 votes and 0.98%.”

    I’ve seen enough, Ciscomani wins AZ-6

    Liked by 1 person

  15. That’s my call LOL

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  16. DDHQ called AZ-6, so they are officially at 218

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Casey should win once the votes are counted.

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  18. Elise Stefanik is accepting the Representative to the UN position. So, that will subtract one from that margin. The House will need a buffer zone.

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  19. I don’t understand the attraction to the UN position, but I think once a SCOTUS judge resigned to become UN Ambassador.

    Stefanik was #4 in the House, not sure what she is aiming for except maybe Vance’s VP.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Casey should win once the votes are counted.”

    I agree. Eventually if you don’t stop counting he will win.

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  21. Did DDHQ un call te pa senate race?

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  22. AP was the one that called it. Did DDHQ call it too?

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  23. Not sure I thought DDHQ called it

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  24. Breaking news….Trump just stated that Marco Rubio will be his Sec. of State. Analysis…..this is the most brilliant of moves. A fantastic choice.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. President-elect Trump Names Rep. Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser”

    I hope these are deep red districts…

    Liked by 1 person

  26. No DDHQ call in PA

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  27. So DeSantis gets to appoint a replacement?

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  28. Well done Marco. I supported you in 2016….perhaps the most qualified SOS in history.

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  29. Yes, DeSantis appoints his replacment. There will be a Nov. 2026 special election for the remainder of the term.

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  30. The two Rino senators and Scott have agreed to make recess appts. If you recall Biden’s Beotch never allowed it the last time.

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  31. Can Rds appoint himself?

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  32. According to this article, through 2009 (and none that I know of since then) there have been nine examples of Governors appointing themselves to the Senate, only one won the subsequent special election. Interestingly, it states that the mechanism is for the governor to resign, and the Lt Gov or whomever takes over, then appoints the ex-Gov.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/politicaljunkie/2009/09/when_governors_appoint_themsel.html

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  33. DeSantis would be fighting history if he chose to go down that path

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  34. Why would DeSantis want to be a Senator? It seems like a demotion for a Governor.

    Liked by 1 person

  35. He does not have much time remain8ng in office as a governor.

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  36. I don’t trust Cornyn or thune. Both are bad news and repeats of Biden’s Beotch.

    I rather have had Rubio remain in the senate.

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  37. Threats of deportation barked the slob on the view. Yes, threats actually lead to people self deporting and going home. Similar to how the caravans are breaking up.

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  38. Rubio was not likely to run for re-election in 2028. Maybe he wants to run for Gov in 2026.

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  39. He would be the prohibitive favorite

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  40. Well done Marco. I supported you in 2016…”

    Me too.

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  41. McCormick lead down to 35k.

    Rs need to stop this circus.

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  42. DDHQ calls CA-41 for Calvert, #219

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  43. Has AZ 6 been called yet?

    Ciscomani has a 5k lead now with 87% counted and Pinal votes are at 98%

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  44. DDHQ called it, but not ap, apparently.

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  45. Trump just went over 75 million votes. The highest ever recorded by a r presidential candidate.

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  46. Polymarket House Predictions

    220 20%

    221 46%

    222 29%

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  47. 220 AK-AL is a slam dunk for Begich

    221 CA-13 is very likely for Duarte.

    222 CA-45 is closer than expected for Steel +1.4% with 86% in and the last few vote drops unfriendly, but hopefully she gets a couple of good vote drops tomorrow from friendlier areas of Orange County and LA county.

    The only other race that is a possibility IMO is CA-21, where Costa (D) leads Maher by 1.0% with 64% counted.

    CA-47 Min (D) leads Baugh by 1.0% with 87% in, which is too big a hill to climb IMO.

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  48. PA Senate

    McCormick 99%

    Casey 1%

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  49. 220 AK-AL is a slam dunk for Begich”

    Even if it goes to ranked voting?

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  50. Trump needs to STOP appointing R members of the NARROW E. HOUSE MAJORITY. It will come back to bite him like it did picking Sen. Sessions to head DOJ…

    Repeating history…and past mistakes?

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  51. BTW, I played tthe monthly two-table bridge today.

    I came in first. Won $5.

    Ding my part to “Make Playing Bridge Great Again”.

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  52. Two once every two weeks bridge it this coming Thursday.

    We shall see if I continue the streak.

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  53. Jason,

    Cinyc on RRH ran the ranked choice file that the AK elections department released. Begich will gain a 2% margin on the current votes cast.

    https://mustreadalaska.com/raw-data-released-by-division-of-elections-shows-begich-will-win-in-after-ballots-ranked/

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  54. stefanik is from a safe district, and will have an R replace her

    Rubio as SOS is brilliant. I think DeSantis should appoint himself. If he doesn’t win in 2028 he has a lifetime position in government and eventually rise up to the Speaker of the Senate, which is incredibly powerful.

    Rubio does two years as SOS and then becomes Gov of Florida in 2026, or begins his run to the WH in 2028.

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  55. The ranked voting is a joke. All done to save the drat senator masquerading as a R.

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  56. RCV and open primaries may be going down in AK as well. The RCV removal ballot measure is up by 1.6%, so it’ll be close.

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  57. kash Patel is rumored to be the CIA director.

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  58. Regarding the AK-AL, the third place candidate is with the AK independence party. So most of his votes are going to Begich.

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  59. Just wanted to point out that Trump came back in NH and only lost by 3%…but Ayotte, won by nearly 10% in NH.

    I bet a Rubio, Ayotte, DeSantis, Youngkin, could win the state in 28

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  60. Scott Bessent nominated for treasury secretary

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  61. Conventional wisdom says presidents have a rough go of it during the mid-terms. Ergo, per Susie Wiles, Trump only has 18-24 months in which to enact his agenda.

    Will this play out as a second term for DJT or, because of his one-term sabbatical, can we toss conventional wisdom aside?

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  62. I don’t think conventional wisdom applies to very much anymore.

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  63. In 2026, Dems will run on the issue of impeaching Trump as many times as necessary. All in the name of Democracy, of course.

    Liked by 2 people

  64. Noem selected for DHS

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  65. McCormick allowed to attend senate orientation today.

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  66. I love the suggestion that it could be a Vance-Stefanik ticket in 2028. That is a winning combo!

    Also, a Vance-Rubio or Vance-Donalds ticket would be awesome.

    I hope that if DeSantis doesnt appoint himself, he will appoint Bryon Donalds to the senate seat.

    Sean Spicer floated Don Jr. and I have heard it speculated it could be Matt Gaetz, but I hope we dont get subjected to those two.

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  67. If the Dems go down the impeachment-impeachment-impeachment path in 2026, they will get smacked down again.

    Liked by 1 person