Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
57 responses to “Results coming for parts of IN and KY”
Primero
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Second
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What are the bellwethers in IN and KY?
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Fox is scrolling the Dixville Notch results, only thing reported yet. Hilarious!
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And THE FIRST RESULTS ARE IN!!!!
Trump way ahead in rural Floyd County Kentucky
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Trump ahead in rural counties…shudders at the thought
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the results so far in Floyd are ahead of 2020
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Fox says 41% think Kamala better for economy?
There are really some deluded people geezus
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Kamala and dems are better for the economy. Tax cuts and trickle down economics do not work but somehow rethugs think otherwise..shocking!
Trump loves the poorly educated!
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Watch Vigo county in Indiana. Gone with the winner every cycle but 1952.EXCEPT for 2020 when it went for Trump.
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Oh look the Nasdaq rallied today! Who knew! The economy was supposed to be tanking!
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IN Whitley County
With 51% in it is Trump 71-28. Back in 2020 it was Trump 73-24. Hopefully this is the mail and early vote. If not this might mean that Trump might not get a big swing in the Midwest.
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C’mon CNN. Your bias is despicable. The first results on your exit polls had 72% of people dissatified or angry with regard to the direction of the US. Then you adjust your private CNN only knows exit polls to tell us that democracy in the #1 issue in America by far with abortion #2. Stop the shameless cherry picking.
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IN Dubois County
With 63% in it is Trump 68-30. Back in 2020 it was Trump 69-29. Again. If this is the mail in and early vote I think there is some room for a small Trump swing,.
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do we really think going from 69-29 to 68-30 indicates soft support for Trump inthe Midwest. Come now
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Doom, I tell ma’am!
Chicon
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According the UF election lab, Indiana has 1.383M early in-person votes and 196,573 mail in votes.
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Remember Trump’s margins in the Midwest in 2020 was not enough to win. So he needs a positive swing. So far this is not taking place in IN. If not then the hope has to be a shift of relative vote from urban to rural areas.
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Chicon, they were starting to worry about you!
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CNN Headline
“Trump voter explains why Trump won’t win”
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My mantra for the night is “As Guam goes, so goes…..”
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Jai, but would really expect to see a surge from 70/30 where there really arent any voters on the margins, whereas in areas that were 50/50 you can actually see improvement because there are margins for improvement
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LOL
Chris Wallace SHOCKS CNN Panel in light of 72% of American being dissatisfied or angry with the direction of the country: “It would be A MIRACLE that Kamala Harris could win with that kind of headwind!”
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Just let them count the votes. Indiana hasn’t had any candidates camped out there the last 4 years, there is bound to be some small differences here and there.
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VictrC. For sure I hope that is true. So far one example shows this might not be true.
IN Allen County which has Fort Wayne With 44% in it is Trump 52-47. Back in 2020 it was Trump 54-43.
One other worry I have is that the third party vote fell more relative to 2020. Trump ceiling is most likely lower than Harris so third party vote tend to help Trump, in theory.
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decision desk forecasts 1.4 percent increase in Indiana doe trump.
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My main narrative is that IN rural areas are exactly the areas we need to see a Trump surge to help carry him in places like WI MI and PA. If what we get is 2020 at best then the hope has to be fall in Dem turnout in metro areas which so far does seem to be true.
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run 1.4% stronger*
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I’m old enough to remember when Guam was in danger of tipping over. That was Dem Rep Hank Johnson’s concern with stationing 8,000 Marines there. (Yes, he was serious.) Not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.
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Some good news on the Fox poll.
Only 22% “strongly oppose” continued aid to Ukraine.
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Jai likes to be “concerned”, iirc.
Chicon
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“decision desk forecasts 1.4 percent increase in Indiana doe trump.”
Good to hear. I hope their ability to look at the data is better than me. Back in 2020 I noticed small erosion in Trump’s margins relative 2016 in IN and KY and I fear the same might be taking place again. Hope decision desk is correct.
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“My main narrative is that IN rural areas….”
-Why? Indiana will go Trump. Why would the rural voters who don’t usually vote have any need to come out? It’s totally different than rural areas from the battleground states, which have been inundated with the campaigns the last year or more.
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So watch Lake (Gary, IN) and Marion (Indianapolis) for urban vote trend.
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My main narrative is that IN rural areas are exactly the areas we need to see a Trump surge to help carry him in places like WI MI and PA.”
I don’t think I agree with this.
I think a general erosion in Trump’s vote in Indiana might be significant, but I am not sure the rural to rural connection is relevant, certainly not at the margins jaichind is showing.
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Too early to cry rethugs. 🤣
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Polymarket still 60-40 Trump
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Who’s going to scream “rigged “ first? Trump? Elon? Vivek? Vance?
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WI looking better for Trump at Predictit too, up to 46%. Was down to 38% earlier.
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IN Hamilton County which is a IN suburb of Indianapolis
With 65% in it is Harris 50-49. Back in 2020 it was Trump 52-45. This is a county where I do expect some shift toward the Dem. I do not like the scale of the ship.
Again. All these votes could be biased toward early vote which should mean they will shift GOP a bit when all votes are in. Still unless the urban vote turnout is down relative to rural turnout in IN I suspect there might be an IN swing toward Dems. Not the start I wanted.
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I think it is a sad reflection on HHR that the only troll we got today is a sad little illiterate Marxist turd from Canada blogging out of mommy’s basement.
It is a insult, frankly.
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Kennedy getting 0.7% in Indiana. What are these people thinking.
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Hey, I’m from Illinois. Or is my category more of a sub-troll.
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On the other hand things look pretty good in AZ. Various CNN exit polls in GA look pretty good for Trump. So even if my fears about IN is right Trump still have several options to get lucky in one of the MI WI and PA.
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A 54 failed business man who is now a daily substitute teacher.
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I wonder who signs gleamingtroll’s checks? Elias or Soros.
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I sign my own checks and then others. You’re welcome Jeff. Need a job? I’m hiring.
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Repeating yourself? Is it dementia? Schizophrenia? Autism? A cocktail of mental disorders?
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Taylor county rurals up , urban down
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Some good news. KY Taylor County with 88% in is Trump 77-21. Back in 2020 it was Trump 75-24. Finally a sign that Trump can outperform 2020 in rural areas and this is with most of the vote in.
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AYLOR COUNTY, KENTUCKY: Over 95% in
Trump 77.7% Harris 21%
2020: Trump 74.9% Biden 23.7%
Trump+6 swing
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FL results look pretty good since most of it is the early and mail in vote.
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Oceola and broward counties in Florida are blue and quemala is doing worse.
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nbc exit indies Georgia, Trump up 11
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(54 to 43)
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NT
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God, I love it. On CNN Dana Bash is attacking Chis Wallace. God, I love it when liberals attack other liberals.
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