Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
186 responses to “Final weekend. Non-stop abortion ads from now until Tuesday where I live.”
Dw/others, is this true?
https://oregoncatalyst.com/81471-turnout-shocker-gop-5-dems.html
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TIPP deadlocked at 48
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GOP lead up to 49,000 in Nevada! Rural landside continued. Ralston says last hopes are Clark mail ins but steep climb.
Nevada appears to be OVER
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Ralston just wants the Dems to know how many non-postmarked ballots will be needed.
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Let’s hope this means something
3 Days to Election: ’24: Trump +0.3 | 2020: Biden +7.8 | 2016: Clinton +1.5
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National Survey of 12,546 U.S. Likely Voters
If the 2024 election were between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
HISPANIC VOTERS ONLY-
Trump: 49% (+5)
Harris: 44%
Someone Else: 5%
Not Sure: 3%
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That’s RAS
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Redstate headline article this morning. I guess nothing happening in the political world.
NY Euthanizes Peanut the Squirrel
“New York’s Democrat government has now euthanized the squirrel who clearly had a great life with his owner. This is absurd. Only leftist logic thinks this is “unsafe squirrel housing” and that the solution to that is euthanizing a beloved squirrel. We need justice for Peanut!”
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MINNESOTA poll
🔵 Harris: 52.3% (+4.6)
🔴 Trump: 47.7%
ActiVote | 10/9-11/1 | N=400LV
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ARIZONA poll
🔴 Trump: 50.9% (+1.8)
🔵 Harris: 49.1%
ActiVote | 10/8-11/1 | N=400LV
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WISCONSIN poll
🔵 Harris: 50.9% (+1.8)
🔴 Trump: 49.1%
ActiVote | 10/10-11/1 | N=400LV
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JUST IN: Barack Obama is campaigning for Harris in Wisconsin on Sunday amid lagging turnout in Milwaukee
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According to leftwing Marist, only 12% of PA voters view abortion as even a “motivating factor” and the PA electorate on the issue of abortion favors Kamala over Trump 56-43, a distinct advantage but hardly overwhelming.
Of the 12% that view it as a motivating factor, I would argue the vast majority are Dems who would vote for Kamala no matter what, and a minority of that 12% will be pro-life conservatives already voting R.
So the Dems are spending tens of millions on abortion ads hoping some of those 12% are ONLY voting for Kamala because of abortion and if not for abortion would not vote.
Maybe they have data that shows that to be the case, or maybe they are misreading the electorate.
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Salena Zito knows PA.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/3213074/trump-has-reason-in-pennsylvania-feel-better-than-harris/
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Exactly, Jason. That’s why we should be celebrating these funds being wasted. Abortion being such a divisive issue for some (12%?), those folks made up their minds long ago and, most likely, have already voted.
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Polymarket swing states
PA 56-44 Trump
WI 51-49 Harris
AZ 76-25 Trump
NV 64-37 Trump
GA 72-29 Trump
MI 58-42 Harris
NC 68-31 Trump
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Not sure the MI data justifies that big a spread.
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Abortion 24/7 could turn off voters who might be sympathetic but make them think the Dems don’t give a damn about anything else including the economy, jobs and inflation.
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Exactly, Jason. That’s why we should be celebrating these funds being wasted.”
I am more hoping than celebrating. My wife says the Dems are way overplaying the importance of abortion and she doesn’t know one woman who thinks it is the most important issue. But her circle is mostly 50+ married working women in a conservative area so not the demographic Dems are targeting, which is unmarried young women and older wine sipping liberal suburban women.
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Then why lie about Wasa to pretend it is some elitist store? It is not.
Jason hides among the Amish but says I am afraid to go anywhere. Zzzzzzz”
Ma, that lobster bait works!
But it is too expensive to use just to catch some Bitterfish.
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And how many of those Dems would have sat out the election except for the abortion issue? That is the issue.
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Why lie about Wawa being an elitist store? Come on, Mr. Irrelevant. Answer.
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”Riddle me this, Ever-Expanding Kasie Hunt: Who hands a rifle to someone facing a firing squad?”
https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/11/02/nolte-bill-maher-rips-media-liz-cheney-firing-squad-hoax-just-dont-lie-me/
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https://www.sheetz.com/fuel
https://www.wawa.com
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Wawa ranked #10, Sheetz #13 in number of sites, per CSP, a C-Store industry mag. Non of which speaks to the quality of operations or food.
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NC EV update….GOP added another 1K now leads by 51,500 registered R’s.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
3h
“The Republican lead in Nevada increased to WHAT?!”
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Wawa ranked number 1. Suck it.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/10/01/consumers-have-crowned-wawa-as-the-nations-no-1-convenience-store-.html
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Wawa’s are always nice and clean, but the sandwiches are overrated.
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Changes in the forecast simulations in the last 24 hours….
The Economist Harris +4 52
Trump -4 48
Road to the White House Harris back in the lead at 48.8-47.2
538 Trump -2 but still leads 50-49
This is still a 48-48 country.
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What ever happened to SurveyMonkey?
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Kamala recognized that this country is at risk, that the economy needs to get stronger, that the cost of food and the cost of living is too high. Damn, it’s even high for me!
-Cardi b endorsement (paid $$$) of quemala.
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I am bombarded with e-mails and text messages telling me it’s ok to vote for Trump even if I am pro-choice. Not sure how they got my e-mail and phone number but it is good to see they are trying to get votes.
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“…I used to get gas and beer there,…”
GF,
There are many places I eat and get gas there… I suggest taking anti gas meds.
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Silver just posted…..”At this point, there’s enough new polling that it’s hard to know exactly what’s influencing the model, but Harris is gaining in our forecast, and it’s converging toward a truly 50/50 forecast. A strong set of YouGov polls, plus a Washington Post poll showing her ahead by 1 point in Pennslyvania, are surely part of the reason why. Her win probability remains ever-so-slightly below Trump’s but is the highest it has been in the last two weeks”
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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Bitter is just angry that Wahwah is expanding into deplorable regions.
He is worried it is going to water down the snooty country club image.
Deal with it.
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My guess for the reason of the tightening on the betting markets, polls favoring Harris in the blue wall like Marist and YouGov and Trump expanded lead in the Sun Belt in attributed to ‘Republicans coming home and Democrats coming home’.
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NV voter update: GOP extends lead to 49 K statewide. That’s 4.8 percent. Rural landslide continues. It’s now Clark mail or bust for Dems, steep climb. I’ll update the blog tomorrow at some point.”
Ralstonhack didn’t tell the Dems to panic yet, because of “Clark mail”.
Let’s hope the “rural landslide” happens in PA and WI too.
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Trump back to tied at Predictit and 59-41 at Polymarket.
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The Harris campaign claims undecideds “are breaking their way” because of the MSG event.
Smells like garbage.
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But let’s face it, it looks like Trump has to win WI, PA or MI to win.
I think the other paths are unlikely.
He needs to pick one of the 3 and go all in.
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I think he has GA and AZ and probably NV.
But that is not 270.
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Ralstonhack never thought he would have to press the Panic button. He is a fraud and a liar. He promised his followers he would tell them when to panic, but he lied to them.
If NOW isn’t a time for them to panic, it will never come until the networks call it for Trump.
So they are putting all their hopes in:
a) Clark mail which has been underwhelming for 14 days, but suddenly is supposed to come to life.
b) Republicans are turning out in droves to vote for Harris because they love either Liz Cheney or Romney.
c) Harris will get 75% of the independent vote.
Yeah, its time for them to panic.
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I am liking the look of Wisconsin jason. They have a tradition of under-polling Republican strength there, and not just Trump. And of the three rust belt states, Wisconsin is the smallest, and therefore the easier to move, and if it gets the same rural push that we are seeing in NV and AZ, it will be lights out. Milwaukee and Madison cannot overcome it. We already have data showing strong turnout and participation in the GOP suburb strongholds like Waukesha county.
And the people of Wisconsin do put a high value on competency. I expect the longer they look at Harris, the more skeptical they are of her competency, and with the world tearing apart, Trump the safer choice.
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Silverfish may be the bigger hack than Ralston
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He is. Ralston is a local hack, Silver is national.
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If the NV pre election day vote is R+2.5 or higher as all indications are at this point, I do not see how the Dems win. I expect the Dems will not net any votes on election day and will fall further behind in raw vote numbers. Hopefully that will drag Brown across the line as well. In 2020, the pre-election day vote was D+4.46, and the final result was D+2.83. Biden won by 2.39%
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Silverhack leaning hard into these absurd polls from the Times of London? The UK already had a hard left pollster in Redfield and Wilton, but Times of London decided to outdo them.
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And it looks likes quemakas path is narrowing. Sunbelt is gone.
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I think Trump should go back to WI before Tuesday.
I am contacting the local Trump Amish Vote Coordinator about it.
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Don’t forget that the party id in Nevada is essentially even. A sea change from 2020.
And the Rs did not register to vote for quemala.
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Jason, Trump will for sure need 2 of the 3 (PA, MI, WI). Can’t rely on NV. If it comes down to NV truck loads of ballots pre marked for Kamala will keep coming in until she is up by one vote. Winning WI but not NV will not get the job done.
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Well, it’s not a question of relying on NV. Flipping NV, GA and AZ doesn’t get Trump to 270.
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He doesn’t need 2/3. PA is enough, so is MI and WI if he flips GA and AZ.
Just WI gets him to 272. Bingo.
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If he flips NV, GA and AZ he gets to 268.
Handy dandy interactive map.
https://www.270towin.com/
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I suspect MI,PA and WI will go in tandem.
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GOP EV is lower than 2020?
Doesn’t make sense.
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Fulton is violating state law. They should not even be open today. Where is Hee haw?
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852737900351250736?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Winning WI but not NV will not get the job done.
Yes it will.
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and no watchers so they can fake ballots again.
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My prediction is going to be 291-247, only because I am letting the betting markets influence me not to put MI in.
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Jason continues to lie about Wawa regardless of the truth that there is nothing elitist about it. It started and has its HQ in Delaware County, PA (Delco) – Deplorable Country.
As for his continued lie that I don’t like “deplorables,” Trump will be getting my vote for the third time. Mr. Irrelevant, aka the Deplorable Whisperer, will have voted for Trump only once from 2016 to 2024. Only 1 more time than Corey and Robbie combined.
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Hee haw should arrest all of them. Again, ev is closed in ga as of yesterday. Fulton is violating state election law by being open.
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I think if Trump loses 270-268 because NE legislators did not change the NE system we should commit ritual suicide.
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As for his continued lie that I don’t like “deplorables,” Trump will be getting my vote for the third time.”
Zzzzzz…
Trump is a NYC billionaire, he is not a deplorable.
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Bitter is just jealous I will now get to enjoy gourmet coffee and high end delicacies just like the Radnor elites.
I also hear prices will be 15% lower to account for the difference in purchasing power.
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Jason continues to lie about Wawa regardless of the truth that there is nothing elitist about it.”
Ma, we might not have to spend money on the lobster bait, the elite bait is just as effective.
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Harris not sustaining yesterday’s “surge:” at Predictit
Trump leads again.
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NBC news says many indies are “sitting out the election”.
Who does that help?
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Everybody remember to get your predictions posted on the predictions thread.
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The surge is fake. Silverfish can hype ome pole from Marxist. And ignore rcp
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Paging hee ha. Send law enforcement and arrest those Fulton count workers.
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@shipwreckedcrew
Who had
“The Harris Campaign is going to take its final stretch strategy straight from the last three episodes of Season 4 of “The Boys”, right down to internment camp warnings”
on their Bingo card???
8:40 AM · Nov 2, 2024
·
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Black Philly:
DEM: 64,080 [-52,160]
REP: 3,111 [-672]
Black Pittsburgh:
DEM: 9,718 [-7,377]
REP: 682 [-90]
I see Eric has stolen Bitter’s “Good Philadelphia Bad Philadelphia” meme and expanded it to Black Philly and Black Pittsburgh.
He owes Bitter some royalties.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/breaking-fourth-pa-county-launches-investigation-lehigh-county/
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
4h
“Independents will save Harris in NV”
Independents in NV: only 28% say they’re better off than four years ago.
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Yes, Rs registering to vote for quemala and the indies will save quemala.
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Personally I’d rather Trump go back to Wisconsin rather than do 4 Rallies in NC.
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Jason invented the terms. He can have the royalties and GFH.
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This squirrel story is getting a lot of play on X. lol
Elon: Government overreach kidnapped an orphan squirrel and executed him …
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Trump to save the squirrels !!!
https://x.com/kdorr_usa/status/1852750128299352317?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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You go first.
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“Personally I’d rather Trump go back to Wisconsin rather than do 4 Rallies in NC.”
Probably going where his internal polling is telling him to go. I take the Milwaukee rally yesterday as the finishing touches on a 2 point WI win.
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On my way to North Carolina to speak to a crowd so large that it goes beyond the beautiful horizon, and this, after a huge Rally in Milwaukee, in the Great State of Wisconsin, last night, in front of over 30,000 American Patriots! Low Energy Democrat Candidate Lyin’ Kamala Harris, was also in Milwaukee yesterday, spending millions of Taxpayer Dollars on the trip, all to speak in front of only 900 people, and most of them were my supporters. They witnessed a person who is totally confused and tired. She is a Low IQ individual, not equipped to be President, and that’s why she can’t draw a crowd. We have people lining up for days, all over our soon to be magnificent Nation. Kamala is slumping to the finish line, yawning, shrieking, and cackling, while I am working 24/7 to win this Election, so we can save our Country and, Make America Great Again!
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It’s not just peanut the squirrel, they also took and killed their raccoon.
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Unfortunately, I could see this happening. What a mess this would be.
Scott Adams: “My 2024 Election Prediction:
I predict a landslide of election rigging claims. More than courts can handle before Jan 6th. Many claims will be baseless. Some will look credible.
I predict Trump will get the most real votes, but Democrats will empty the trickster vault to keep him from being certified and taking office on schedule.
I predict massive voter fraud will be discovered and it will confirm in the minds of the public that Trump was probably right about 2020 being rigged.
It will be the greatest Third Act in political history.
I predict America will sort it all out by the end of January(ish). Probably via Supreme Court.
Trump will take office.
The Golden Age begins.
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Right now, I have Harris winning 276 to 262 with Trump losing GA, PA and Michigan. I will make final prediction Monday.
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Ralston must have been informed of the certainty of how they will cheat to steal NV. He is all smiles and jokes in his update just posted:
“First significant Clark mail dump (30K) was 6K in Dems favor. Add in rural and Washoe and state of play:
GOP has 44K lead statewide, or 4.2 percent. That ain’t nuthin’. (This is true data analysis.)
Clark Dem firewall up to 17K, but really interesting data point is indies are at 30 percent of Clark (218K votes) and…,that ain’t nuthin”, either.
I still think Washoe is key, right now a problem for Dems with GOP+9K.
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Zzzz…
Bitter is copying my prediction except he is donating $100 to the YMCA dogs.
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Bitter is betting on a long shot that Harris can win GA.
2 to 1 odds at Predictit, 3 to 1 at Polymarkets.
I don’t see Dems winning GA because it is the ONE state that tightened the rules and made it harder to cheat.
In addition Kemp seems committed to help Trump win and he has a pretty good machine.
Finally, Biden as a fake “working class” candidate was a better fit for GA than a far leftist like Kamala, and he only “won” by 12k votes.
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What Ralstonhack didn’t mention is that even with the 6k D vote lead in the Clark dump, the overall 44k GOP lead didn’t change.
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Final WI Polls 2020
AtlasIntel Biden +2
Susquehanna Biden +3
Civiqs Biden +4
Research Co Biden +8
Emerson Biden +8
Change Research Biden +8
CNN/SSRS Biden +8
SurveyMonkey Biden +10
Swayabe Biden +10
Ipsos Biden +10
NYT/Siena Biden +11
R&W Biden +12
Morning Consult Biden +13
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jason, exactly…the evening total had jumped up to 49,000, but that happened every night the last two weeks, with the overnight mail count arriving in the morning to chunk the lead back down some. So comparing today to same time yesterday, its 44,000 and 44,000, no change as you said.
But suddenly he’s saying it ain’t nothing? Either he was hitting the sauce too much last night and isn’t fully sobor, or he was told that the fix is in and he is free to start the propaganda to cover the fraud.
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Final result. Biden +0.6
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In his defense “it ain’t nuthing” means it is something.
Same with “it ain’t nuthing” for the number of Clark indies.
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He is actually saying both are significant.
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HAPPENING NOW: Minnesota Somali Leaders are holding a press conference endorsing Trump for President. 👀
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Ralston is saying the R lead is significant, as well as the Others being at 30% of the electorate as significant.
However, Ralston is making the same mistake I’ve seen elsewhere by assuming the Other group are all Indys. They are not. There are Indys in all three groups, and there are significant numbers of self-identified Rs and Ds in the Others.
In 2020 the final vote by party registration was D+2.83 and Biden won by 2.39%. Doing the math, the Other group was R+ some amount, or more D’s crossed over to R’s than vice-versa.
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Don’t forget we get the Iowa # from Seltzer today.
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jason, yeah I thought of it that way, but one would have to follow Ralston a lot to know whether he meant it that way, or was mocking bad grammar meaning it was a trivial amount.
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Washoe being plus 9 for the Rs is significant as reno area was trending more and more R.
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Ralston should also discuss further the significance of the party Id being nearly equal.
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One thing that the Dems seem to be hanging their hat on is that even though the GOP looks to be very enthusiastic based on EV voting, Dems are counting on the Independents being more Dem.
The problem I see with that Hopium, is have we ever had an election where the Independents swung heavily against the party that appears to be more enthusiastic? Especially when almost 70% of the Country thinks we are on the wrong track. Common sense would seem to say that a lot of those Independents would be swinging against the party in power, if they want change.
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Exactly scooter. Well said.
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I guess Biden hasn’t thought about that yet…
REPORTER: “Day one — what’s your first executive action?”
KAMALA: “Bringing down the cost of living.”
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Also, independents going for an unpopular incumbent with a horrible economy.
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Biden just decided he would walk to Philadelphia.
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Bitter, I tell you what.
I will let you off the hook if you want to send the YMCA dogs $90 right now.
It will save you $10.
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Pa update….registered D’s now up 400K
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
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As wiser heads here have said:
The election is coming down to Trump winning 1 of the 3 rust belt states;
Trump wins all of the Sunbelt states, except MAYBE Nevada, but he doesnt need it since he has to win 1 of the 3 sunbelt states;
Enthusiasm, as evidenced by EV and registration numbers favors the republicans;
Harris’ coalition has had significant cracks;
NeverTrumpers never supported Trump, what they do is inconsequential;
Trump will win the national vote, the 3 rust belt states will be close between +1.5 either way.
We pull the trifecta of winning the presidency, the senate and the house.
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Seth Levy is trying to get into the Va rally:
https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/1852767824269168903?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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I am thinking the Peanut squirrel case may be the October surprise. Trump and R’s should pound the fact that this is the typical Dem MO. They don’t give a crap about rampant urban crime or the economy, but they will send six uniformed agents to storm a home and seize a squirrel to kill it.
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Breaking: Trump favored in WY. I am calling it.
GFYs
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Trump 280/Harris 258. Trump takes all the swings but NV, MI and VA. Virginia just too much of a stretch, and with blue guvs in NV and MI, margins won’t be there to beat the cheat.
Senate pickups: WV, OH, WI, MT (+4)
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Lol….. It’s crazy how this has taken off. These things are all over my timeline.
White House monitoring the operation to arrest Peanut Squirrel.
https://x.com/jarvis_best/status/1852747486131298725?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Early voting ends in NC at 3pm. Dem early voters in the past exceeded the GOP EV during every election. As of last night, this year the GOP voters were ahead of the DEMS by 50k voters, unaffiliated voters were 2nd and the DEMs were third.
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Wow, the return rate for Philadelphia ballot is only 68%?
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Biden screaming at Voters again.
https://x.com/catturd2/status/1852774352892162305?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Sorry, the Dem rate of return is 75%.
But that is still a lot of wasted ballots.
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Yahoo”
“Why early results may be deceiving on election day”
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The morning NV update posted and the lead is R+45,102.
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”I predict a landslide of election rigging claims. More than courts can handle before Jan 6th. Many claims will be baseless. Some will look credible.”
Scott Adams prediction, posted by scooter, certainly is possible, considering how the Dems will stop at nothing to win the election. However, I am believing this election may surprise people by the final number of people turning out to vote. The GOP mantra has been “too big to rig” for a long time. And, it seems people on the ground are quietly complying, creating records with early voting numbers from red districts. So, just like the original numbers I submitted with DW’s prediction page were optimistic, so is my overall prediction for this election. I think the EV count will be 312-226 in Trump’s favor, with the senate moving over to the republicans and the House retained by the republicans. The republicans will also win the popular vote by a small margin.
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Oh wow it was 44xxx. It went up. lol
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For Nv updates I only do an am to am comparison.
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sane, I saw 44k on Raslton’s page…did more come in?
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they are saying about 75% of the vote is in for NV and some of these other states.
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If this stuff is true, where in the hell is the Governor?
BREAKING NEWS🚨🚨🚨
CHATHAM COUNTY ELECTION CRIME
No Poll Watchers. No oversight. Criminal actions by Chatham County Board of Registrar.
This is happening right now! 9 am until 3 pm today, they will receive absentee ballots.
This is ILLEGAL. Fulton County is being sued by the @GaRepublicans right now for this same action yesterday. Literally in Fulton County Courthouse in a hearing to stop this right now.
Do you not remember 2020??? It was NOT only Fulton that caused the steal. It was just as much CHATHAM COUNTY that stopped counting and had all the discrepancies in their count.
The STEAL is ON FULL FORCE in GEORGIA!
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Jan – If Trump loses, here is the Suicide hotline number. 988. I worry about you.
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BTW, that squirrel story has traction, being blasted across various blogs, going viral among the guy’s half million subscribers who were following this domesticated squirrel. Taking “pets” away and involuntarily killing them will upset people more than most can imagine.
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The 11/2 9am NV SOS PDF was posted a little while ago.
D = 353,766
R = 398,868
O = 295,755
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Governor hee haw is meeting with rattburger. Where are the ga state police?
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Atlas Intel poles incoming.
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Bitter, please stop it. Like Vic much earlier said, we are all adults, and will all survive no matter which way this election goes. My support for a Trump is because of his policies, just like my disdain for Harris is because of her policies….full stop.
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This morning I made fun of Squirrelgate.
Maybe I was wrong to do so….
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Oh, the story gets better.
As Peanut was going to be buried, an illegal immigrant grabbed the carcass and ate it raw.
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My support for a Trump”
See, Bitter?
She supports generic Trumps, not Donald.
Giver her a break.
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Bitter, you have often stated here what is the source of your anger/negativity. I think you should see someone.
The solution isnt to bully and pick on people to the point you are saying they may be given to suicidal. People who have lost people to suicide do not need you making light of it. It is not funny.
it is your site. you will do as you please. But stop taking the moral high ground about ANYTHING if you cannot behave with common human decency.
Please and thank you.
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Hey Albertus Minimus Idioticus.
If you don’t like it here, feel free to leave.
Thank you and GFY.
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“it is your site.” Bitter pays the bills, but its really all of ours.
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People who have lost people to suicide do not need you making light of it. It is not funny.”
Bitter lost his niece to suicide.
He would be the last person here to make light of suicide.
You are a monumental POS besides being a complete moron.
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BREAKING: Minnesota Somali leaders just endorsed Donald Trump… WOAH. They said their working and middle class folks can’t AFFORD anything – and that the Democrats LEFT THEM. DEFCON 1 for the Harris campaign.
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Albert is just a stupid little turd who stated categorically that this site would never survive.
I guess he can’t deal with the fact he was wrong as usual and instead decided to act like a real a-hole with a small a.
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Did Ilhan Omar endorse Trump too?
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and so if the GOP is really at +45,102 in Nevada, then their lead GREW over yesterday at the same time. This is pretty significant because Ralston had been preaching that the Dems always close strong the last day of in person. They didn’t. The GOP increased the lead by a little. So all that is left is mail-in for the next three days, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and then election day, and then election day 2, followed by election day 3, followed by election day 4 and then election day 5. If the GOP still has the lead, then Trump wins the state.
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Az r ballot lead is 182,000.
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Has Hee haw even commented on the theft going on in ga?
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Stacey Abrams Tries to Remain Relevant, Says Record GA Turnout Doesn’t Mean There Isn’t Voter Suppression”
Okayyyy…..
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The GOP lead in Florida has been shrinking a little bit, but still robust overall:
R – 3,373,733
D – 2,502,638
GOP LEAD: 871,095
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Looks like New York is seeing the same EV pattern.
https://x.com/nypost/status/1852773629794161090?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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so if the GOP leads by 182,000 votes in AZ, with about 75% of the expected vote in…Trump might be pulling Lake over the finish line.
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Exactly dw the Rs expanded their lead am to am. This is the only consistent way to report the updates.
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So all that is left is mail-in for the next three days, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and then election day, and then election day 2, followed by election day 3, followed by election day 4 and then election day 5.”
And then the ballots without postmarks.
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There are also free fall in Washington state and Oregon. Quemala wins them but just saying something is going on.
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Just saw some squirrels out back. They were running around in circles, looked mad as hell.
Peanutgate is real!
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With respect to the Florida ev margins, it is 10 percent more female.
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Jan named her fish for Trump. She is truly a member of his cult. She actually watches all of Trump’s rambling rallies. It sounds like she lives in a very insulated bubble. I genuinely worry for her mental health if Trump loses. It was not a joke.
My life changed forever because I failed my niece. I would not want anybody to repeat what she did. Certainly not over politics.
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Don’t shoot the messenger. Baris said he is hearing the same thing too, but cautions about the rumors.
Seth Keshel: “Big rumors going around about the Selzer poll being weak for Trump, potentially even a Harris +1.
First off, I already documented yesterday why that result would be impossible but I think this is a disinformation campaign.
I could understand a soft lead showing but everyone knows WI is a key battleground with a tight margin (within 4 points), and that doesn’t work with Iowa close.
Facts welcome, gossip not.
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so if the GOP leads by 182,000 votes in AZ, with about 75% of the expected vote in…Trump might be pulling Lake over the finish line.”
I really don’t know why Trump voters would vote for a far leftist like Gallego.
You would think if you like Trump, you like Lake, right?
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If you think IA is going for Kamala, you can get really rich!
Iowa Presidential Election Winner
Donald Trump
95%
Kamala Harris
6%
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I would be shocked if Selzer comes in with Harris +1. She usually tries to get it right with her last poll. Nothing in this cycle screams Iowa would be Harris +1.
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Has Selzer gone the way of the Drudge Report?
A shame we didn’t get some other polling out of Iowa. All we have is a Cygnal poll taken at the height of the media created Obamala Harris, and that had Trump +7.
But as others have said, the voter registrations alone mean that its not possible for a Harris lead or anything under Trump +5 there.
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If Seth Kershel is such a trusted source for election info, why would he even post such nonsense. There is no way on God’s green earth that Trump is hurting in Iowa. I guess people need to make stuff up or report nonsense to keep getting attention.
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Lots of psyops going on out there.
I read Baris on Nv, there were 45000 mail in ballots received. They counted 30,000 netting ds 6000 apparently. However the lead went up am to am.
He also says that the indies could vary within the state. If r plus 9 in Washoe those indies will lean more r.
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President Donald J. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris with 48 percent over her 47 percent in a national poll conducted Oct 31 by Kaplan Strategies with 671 registered voters.
“The race has been locked up inside the margin of error for the last 100 or so days since Harris was anointed by President Joe Biden as his successor as the party’s nominee,” said Doug Kaplan, the founder and president of the Kissimmee, Florida-based political consulting shop. The poll carries a 3.8 percentage point margin of error.
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
51m
Trump <4: Selzer credibility cooked
Quote
Maine Populist
@ME_Populist
·
22h
Selzer poll result summarized:
Trump less than 4: Trump cooked
Trump 5-8: Harris favored
Trump 9-11: Trump favored
They are putting this garbage out there, like they know what the Selzer poll will show. Totally premediated and preplanned psyops.
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AtlasIntel National poll, Trump up 1.9%
https://www.atlasintel.org/poll/usa-national-2024-10-31
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Yeah, I’m not believing that until I see it. But I wouldn’t be surprised with a Trump +5 or something like that. They were both very cautious about it just being a rumor. Guess we’ll find out shortly.
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Where are the ga police hee haw ?
BREAKING GEORGIA UPDATE: Deep-blue Gwinette County has STOPPED the “illegal” in person vote returns today after the GOP filed lawsuits and got in touch with Kemp’s administration. Pressure is STAYING ON.
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I guess Baris and the other Twitter guy are falling for psyops.
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The Atlas Intel has NOT yet come out. The link above was from a few days ago
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if Trump has a bad number in Iowa then the psy-ops campaign is full on…trying to convince the public it’s Harris’s Race in order to get them to the polls. A disheartened base won’t show up Tuesday and they want to invigorate hers and demoralize Trukos
he doesn’t win Iowa by any less than 8-10%
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The thing I don’t get with these late polls of battleground states, is how these pollsters apparently do NOT consider the evidence of the early voting to help them understand how to weight the results of the poll?
I mean look at Arizona, there are four recent polls where the pollsters say Trump has only a 1 point lead, and yet they did the weighting with the full knowledge of the huge early vote lead the GOP has there, with 75% reported in.
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NT at 4:00 unless DW has a poll.
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And the traditional Iowa Democrat is not at all like a California marxist Democrat that Harris is. Its not like the Dems are running mid-west candidate like Dick Gephardt. She is not at all a fit for Iowa Dems, much less Republicans.
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Thanks Bitter, don’t really have any new polls, but later will be Selzer and AtlasIntel. I might start a thread for them if they are interesting.
But honestly, I am drowning in polls. Trying just keep up filling the backlog.
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they are thinking that the GOP is canibalizing the Election Day votes so republicans will be outvoted on Tuesday
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https://x.com/amuse/status/1852795167486472208?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Vic, I see that same argument everywhere. The problems however, are that the GOP has apparently done better at getting low propensity voters, banking them, and the Dems are not turning out in areas where it would be easy for them to do so if they were excited about the election and their candidate. To presume that a switch will flip that will suddenly energize the Dem base on election day, when in the past they were conditioned to vote early but this year did not.
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Dems are making some gains today in Florida. The lead is down to 11.34, and the margins in Duval and Miami-Dade have tightened.
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PredictIT back to a 53/51 led for Trump
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DW, that letter is fake
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fake but funny
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