FINAL VIRGINIA poll
🔵 Harris: 51% (+10)
🔴 Trump: 41%
🟣 Oliver: 2%
🟡 West: 2%
🟢 Stein: 1%
Last poll: Harris+3
Roanoke College | 10/25-29 | N=851LV
FINAL MICHIGAN poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 45%
🟡 RFK: 3%
🟢 Stein: 3%
🟣 West: 1%
Final 2020 poll: Biden+7
Favorability:
🔴 Trump: 47% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 45%
EPIC-MRA | Released 11/1 | N=600LV
ARIZONA poll
🔴 Trump: 50% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 49%
@SocalStrategies
| 10/30-31 | N=750LV
PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 48%
@SocalStrategies
| 10/30-31 | N=850LV
FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Last poll: Harris+3
Bellwethers:
🔴 Northampton: Trump+2 (last poll: Harris+5)
🟡 Erie: Tie (last poll: Harris+4)
Suffolk/USA Today | 10/27-30 | N=500LV
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
191 responses to “And…good polls for Harris”
First
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I bet joy is drinking wine and smoking pot.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/11/01/october-jobs/
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MSNBC not covering jobs report on website.
CNN blames hurricanes.
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Yes, see the hurricanes impacting several states, impacted the entire jobs report.
The September report showed more gubment jobs added in one month since May of 2020.
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Let’s hope RFK doesn’t really get 3% in MI.
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If he does, the Dem strategy of keeping him on the ballot will be a huge success.
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if RFk gets 3% it will cost Trump the election in michigan
anyone want to bet on Virginia being +10
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Kamala not at 40% in any of the betting markets in the RCP average
She is at 49% at Predictit
CP Average 60.638.1
BetOnline 62/38
Betfair58/37
Betsson 6238
Bovada 61/39
Bwin6338
Points Bet62/39
Polymarket 59/37
Smarkets 58/39
The only real significance is that the betting market have only been wrong twice since 1860.
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Spend some money and get an RFK jr ad in MI and WI to make sure people know he wants their vote for Trump.
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Hello Elon? Fund the ad.
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RKK Jr won’t get 3% but he might get 1% which could still be decisive.
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Not saying that it is, but IF that Virginia poll is even close to correct, it makes no sense for Trump to be making a visit there.
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RFK wont matter in MI and WI. After all that RFK has said in his endorsements, if his name was not on the ballot, then this remaining 1% would have either not voted or voted for someone else, but not Trump.
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NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔴 Trump: 47% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 45%
UMass/YouGov | 10/16-23 | N=650LV
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oh nevermind, I already posted that NC poll….drowning in polls!
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UMass also has Harris +1 in PA, not sure if was posted.
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Mark Cuban issues “clarification”
Mark Cuban
Let’s clarify something. This is what I said during a conversation about why Nikki Haley was not active in his campaign”
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it was
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but the UMASS polls are quite stale
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Update on NC EV….registered R’s bumped up another 3K in the last 24 hours.
R’s 1,306,662
D’ 1,256,093
O’s 1,297,950
Yesterda, the registered R’s lead by 46,500. Today the R’s lead by approx. 50,500. FYI…Trump won NC in 2020 by 74,000
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
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Brilliant reporting!
“We can’t know how these new voters voted, but looking at who they are can provide hints about how 2024 might swing relative to 2020. Party registration does not perfectly predict a voter’s choice, but new voters who choose to register as Democrats are more likely to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris than not, and new voters who register as Republicans are more likely to vote for Trump.”
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After losting a lot of ground in The Economist’s simulation forecast the last couple of days and stayed dead even Trump has now regained the lead 51-48%..
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
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Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
·
1h
This Morning:
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
lookin’ red … stay tuned
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Nv early vote was r plus over 47000. It expanded pending mail additions later.
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Both TheHill and 538 have Trump ahead by the same margin today….53-47%
https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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NC and GA are looking good folks. That means the election is PA.
I have added below to the blue ones, how much they skewed to Biden in 2020:
Pennsylvania polling from the last three and a half weeks:
🔴 Echelon Insights: Trump+6
🔴 Big Data Poll: Trump+4
🔴 Democracy Institute: Trump+4
🔴 Rasmussen Reports: Trump+3
🔴 Trafalgar Group: Trump+3
🔴 Quinnipiac University: Trump+2
🔴 Emerson College: Trump+2
🔴 Quantus Insights: Trump+2
🔴 Fox News: Trump+1
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+1
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+1
🔴 Wall Street Journal: Trump+1
🔴 Monmouth University: Trump+1
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1
🔴 Franklin & Marshall College: Trump+1
🔴 TIPP Insights: Trump+1
🔴 Wick Insights: Trump+1
🔴 American Pulse: Trump+1
🟡 CNN: Tie
🟡 Susquehanna: Tie
🟡 CBS: Tie
🟡 J.L. Partners
🟡 North Star Opinion Research: Tie
🟡 The Bullfinch Group: Tie
🟡 Hunt Research: Tie
🟡 Redfield & Wilton: Tie
🔵 UMASS-Lowell: Harris +1
🔵 Research Company: Harris +1 [2020 off 5]
🔵 Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Harris +2 [2020 off 8]
🔵 Marist: Harris +2 [2020 off 4]
🔵 SoCal Strategies: Harris +2
🔵 Wash. Post/George Mason University: Harris +2
🔵 Claremont McKenna College: Harris +2
🔵 NY Times/Siena College: Harris +4 [2020 off 5]
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Here we go.
JUST IN: Expect a LOONG election night in Milwaukee. With the city of MKE about to surpass 80,000 early voters, the election commissioner says she expects counting to go into the early morning hours. She says counting to 2-3am is likely.”
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If Trump can take Michigan by 2, I think there’s a good chance the Senate picks up another R in Mike Rogers. Ditto Wisconsin with Hovde.
Most effective ad line in Michigan senate race, referencing Dem Slotkin accepting Chinese money for an EV battery plant:
”Slotkin got paid off, Michigan workers got laid off.”
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USA Today actually reported the Echelon results.
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did rcp include.echelon?
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Today is the last day for EV in Georgia according to reports. So far, almost 3.5 million or approx. 50% have already cast their votes.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
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The PA Marist poll had both Harris and Casey 50-48 but losing Indies by 15.
Somehow I don’t think they are losing Indies by 15.
In both 2016 and 2020, Dems had large registration advantage over Rs and the races were very close, suggesting the Indies voted more R than D.
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NEW MEXICO poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+6)
🔴 Trump: 44%
🟡 Undecided: 4%
🟢 Other: 3%
Last poll: Harris+8
SurveyUSA | 10/28-31 | N=632LV
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I think I need another Americano to wake me up.
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Give Trump half the undecided and half to Kamala and you have a 52-46% race.
He lost by 11 in 2020.
Hard to see how he loses AZ and NV if he loses NM by 6.
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Trump Campaign Statement on Kamala’s Job Losses
“This jobs report is a catastrophe and definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy. In a single month, Kamala’s failed economic agenda wiped out nearly 30,000 private sector jobs and nearly 50,000 manufacturing jobs. Working families are being ripped off by the Harris-Biden economic agenda. Kamala broke the economy. President Trump will fix it.” — Karoline Leavitt, Trump Campaign National Press Secretary.
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Of course, this is Biden’s economy, not Kamala’s.
But hey, remember she send she couldn’t think of a thing to do differently so….
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She said, not send.
Another double expresso pls.
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Bill Belichik (72) has a 24 year old girlfriend and they are getting married.
Deal with it.
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Predictably, out there in social media, suddenly Marist is the god of all pollsters. The only one that matters. Never mind that four years ago they had….
WI: Trump 44, Biden 52, off 7 points in favor of Biden.
PA: Trump 46, Biden 51, off 4 points in favor of Biden.
MI: Trump 44, Biden 52, off 6 points in favor of Biden.
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A benefit of the GOP going all in on early voting is that in some key states the totals get updated based on party in each county everyday. With registration numbers being public too… it makes it harder to steal on Election Day. Nevada and Pennsylvania are looking very good for DJT in this case.
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But when Belichik hits 96 the Mrs. will only be half his age. That sounds better!
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Ras poles
trump plus 2 in Nv and pa
plus 3 in nc
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And Tom Brady will be coaching for the London Jihadis of the WFL, formerly known as the NFL.
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Silver just updated….”Not much sign of a last minute swing in the race….unless the last round of NYT/Siena poll weigh strongly toward one side”
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The MSM has an interest in showing a close race if they think Trump is winning, or a surge for Kamala if they think it is tied, so we have to factor that in.
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NYT:
US Economy Shows 12,000 New Jobs in October amid Strikes and Storms
CNN:
Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of election day
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To get an accurate read you have to go to Barron’s.
Weak Jobs Numbers Throw Harris an Election Curveball
Yet Democrats have found it challenging to capitalize on economic strength, and perceptions of a weak jobs report will only add to that problem.
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so predictable
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Imagine the headlines if Trump was President.
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Trump destroys American worker, loses more jobs as Americans struggle
Trump economy continues to tank. Makes deal with China to send our jobs in return for campaign funds
Fascist Trump economy sheds jobs
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The closeness of the race is a major disappointment for me.
I still think had Trump picked Youngkin, the race would be decided by now.
I know Vance has done well on the campaign trail, exceeded my expectations actually. I don’t think he cost Trump any votes. Same with Walz, I doubt he gained any votes for Kamala.
But contrary to Youngkin, he didn’t add any votes either. We will see if that makes the difference.
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standing in line to cannibalize my election day vote, in an area that is probably 65 percent white, 20 percent black, and 10 percent asian, and 5 percent Latino. Lotsa whites in line, and a lot of men
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Ralstonhack
One day left in early voting and the statewide GOP lead was cut a bit overnight with mail ballots from Clark County. But it’s still substantial. Latest: GOP+44,500, or 4.7 percent Last day of early voting today. Will update blog later.
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I don’t think he cost Trump any votes.
Irony Meter explodes.
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Ralstonhack had promised he would say when Dems should panic. He lied. One day left to close that gap
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“Bill Belichik (72) has a 24 year old girlfriend and they are getting married.”
So my math teacher was wrong.
72 can go into 24.
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And the 44,000+ is bigger today than the 42,000+ yesterday.
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Not to sound like a doomer, but if today is the final IPEV day in NV, then the Dems have four days of mail ballots to cut whatever lead is left by this afternoon. They cut it by 4k last night, so if that rate was constant, we should expect the R lead to fall under 30k statewide. Which is still crazy for Rs to lead going into ED.
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I don’t think he cost Trump any votes.
Irony Meter explodes.”
Zzzzzz….
On the edges, Vance’s Ron Paul foreign policy agenda might have lost him a few votes but also gained him some too.
But if you prefer, I don’t think he NETTED Trump any votes.
GFY.
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hen the Dems have four days of mail ballots to cut whatever lead is left by this afternoon.”
They have more than that. Mail in ballots are accepted up to 4 days after the election and the NV SC ruled they don’t even have to be postmarked.
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No they did not cut anything. It was 42xxx yesterday and now it’s 44xxx today. Each day (through day 13) has worsened.
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Good evening, blog mates.
Latest is GOP+47, 300, or 5.1 percent”
Tina and GF are both right.
Last night it had gone to 47,300 so it did cut 4,000, GF is right.
But it is still higher than yesterday morning’s number which was 42,000.
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you have to measure morning to morning to be consistent
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Ralston is making a big deal that the percentage is being lowered somewhat, but of course what counts is the absolute numbers.
44,000 is better than 42,000 even if it is a lower percentage.
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(gf my number is based on the am update. There are 2 an evening and an am. Reports suggest that the Clark county mail in has been weak. It is almost like washoe and Clark offsetting, while the rurals are running wild
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I don’t like rhe facf that mail in can be not stamped 3 days past. That law, while maybe ok for a state election, is not ok for a federal one. To date, I do t get why they have not appealed to the federal courts.
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Wow, impressive October registration gains in Arizona for October for the Rs.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852380691914219855?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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But in reality, Nevada is not that important. If Trump wins PA, MI, or WI he likely won NC and GA and AZ.
If Trump loses PA, WI and MI, then NV would be irrelevant even if Trump swept NC, GA and AZ.
Any scenario that makes NV a deciding factor is low prob.
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Vic, if you remember septemebers job numbers, there are a phantom 700000+++ gubment jobs created. The number exceeded the number from May of 2020 (return from Covid onset). There is no way that figure is true. We are likely seeing job losses (unemployment increases).
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Nv has blown open for trump as did pa yesterday with that echelon pole. Prolly a little rich for me.
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In 2020, the Dems were +55,082 counting all mail and early in person. Election day was R + 15,732, (R+10.0%) so the overall electorate was D+39,350 or D+2.83%.
2024 we have the R’s going to be up at least 30,000 after counting all mail and early in-person. That is an 85,000 vote swing.
R’s should win election day by at least 5,000 votes (I am being conservative). That would make it R+2.7% if the total turnout is 1.3M. So things are looking very good for Trump and Brown.
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Same pole for Nv senate has brown up by 1%.
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Casey ad says “McCormick got rich off fentanyl”.
I hope if he loses he sues the crap out of Casey.
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80% chance of rain in Milwaukee Tuesday.
God is Republican?
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Would be nice if this is true for all the Swing States.
Turn Out Among Low Propensity Voters In Nevada Clark County:
0/3 Election Voters
🔴 28%
🔵 20%
1/3 or 2/3 Election Voters
🔴 47%
🔵 36%
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Reagan/Carter ???? We shall see.
Mark Mitchell of RAS sees a possible Reagan/Carter election.
https://x.com/mark_r_mitchell/status/1852390372233675140?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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The Susquehanna Nevada poll is significant, because of the seven battleground states, the last several elections the other six mostly voted to the RIGHT of Nevada.
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It cost your vote. GFY
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I said it did not cost TRUMP any votes.
I wasn’t talking about MY vote.
GFY.
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interestingly, most polls had Carter leading right before the election:
Reagan 40%. Carter 44%. Anderson 9%
Reagan 39% Carter 45%. Anderson 9%
” As the race neared its finish, Carter had apparently closed the gap with Reagan; some outlets gave him the lead”
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CNN:
Another strong jobs report.
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Wasn’t it Pat Caddell who caught the sudden shift to Reagan the weekend prior? That Carter had a small but seemingly durable lead of a couple of points on Friday, things evened up on Saturday, and the dam broke Sunday and Monday. Anderson also lost a third of his vote over the weekend as well.
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Az r ev ballot lead is almost 176,000.
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BREAKING: Trump’s FINAL RALLY SCHEDULE is now released. 4 rallies on Monday.
FINAL RALLY: Grand Rapids, Michigan.👀
SATURDAY:🔴 Gastonia, NC🔴 Salem, VA🔴 Greensboro, NC
SUNDAY:🔴 Lancaster, PA🔴 Kingston, NC🔴 Macon, GA
MONDAY:🔴 Raleigh, NC🔴 Reading, PA🔴 Pittsburgh, PA🔴 Grand Rapids, MI
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Jason. Did cnn really say it was another strong jobs report. The same people who railed against Bush when he didn’t get +200,000 jobs in a month during the 2004 election
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Shouldn’t go to Georgia.
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Nothing in Wisconsin ???
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Or NC.
If he hasn’t won those by now he isn’t winning the others.
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scooter, I am bullish about Wisconsin, but isn’t he there today in Milwaukee?
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ason. Did cnn really say it was another strong jobs report.”
Yes, they had someone on saying what counts is the unemployment rate and that the stock market was up.
So the anchor said, ok, sounds like another strong jobs report.
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Anderson also lost a third of his vote over the weekend as well.”
He never had that vote to begin with.
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Trump is in WI today.
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BREAKING: Arizona Republicans have EXPANDED their lead in the early vote again – now +175K
🔴 REP: 40.9% [892,815]
🔵 DEM: 32.8% [716,864]
🟡 OTH: 26.3% [573,915]
R lead: +175,951
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Not dooming, just asking. Should we be concerned that Trump is spending a lot of time in NC the last 3 days?
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I might go to the Lancaster rally depending what time it is.
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Should we be concerned that Trump is spending a lot of time in NC the last 3 days?”
Yes.
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Scooter, good insurance policy; western NC turnout will be critical given the storm damage, so paying a visit keeps the energy up. Also next door to VA, so makes sense if he’s also going to Salem up the road.
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Some good data in Redfield and Wilton surveys of swing counties:
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/swing-counties-voting-intention-poll-21-23-october-2024/
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If people are voting according to the registration, there is no way Harris can make up 175k in a universe of 573k other.
She would have to win them 65-35 just to tie.
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The Trump collapse at PredictIT is continuing. Now just 54/51. It was 60/43 just a few days ago. Not sure what changed.
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Hope you are right GF. Does make me a little nervous. I could see if they were trying to pull Robinson across, but he really hasn’t been close in any polls, and to my knowledge hasn’t been showing up to Trumps NC events so far.
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If I recall, PredictIt is a smaller market and thus more easily manipulated. Could also be some profit taking if Trump shares are being liquidated.
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Robinson needs to stay as far away from Trump as possible.
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Trump also took a big hit in MI at Polymarket now down 57-43, does not seem justified by the polls.
In general the betting market trend is away from Trump, but he still has about a 60-40 lead in the aggregate.
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Trump winning the EC by 65-109 EV spread is still the favorite EC bet at Predictit at 24% but it was as high as 30%.
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Jason, a lot of it has to do with the list below. Trump positioned well in PA, and winning PA is the same as winning the election, given the good numbers out of AZ and NV.
Pennsylvania polling from the last three and a half weeks:
🔴 Echelon Insights: Trump+6
🔴 Big Data Poll: Trump+4
🔴 Democracy Institute: Trump+4
🔴 Rasmussen Reports: Trump+3
🔴 Trafalgar Group: Trump+3
🔴 Quinnipiac University: Trump+2
🔴 Emerson College: Trump+2
🔴 Quantus Insights: Trump+2
🔴 Fox News: Trump+1
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+1
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+1
🔴 Wall Street Journal: Trump+1
🔴 Monmouth University: Trump+1
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1
🔴 Franklin & Marshall College: Trump+1
🔴 TIPP Insights: Trump+1
🔴 Wick Insights: Trump+1
🔴 American Pulse: Trump+1
🟡 CNN: Tie
🟡 Susquehanna: Tie
🟡 CBS: Tie
🟡 J.L. Partners
🟡 North Star Opinion Research: Tie
🟡 The Bullfinch Group: Tie
🟡 Hunt Research: Tie
🟡 Redfield & Wilton: Tie
🔵 UMASS-Lowell: Harris +1
🔵 Research Company: Harris +1 [2020 off 5]
🔵 Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Harris +2 [2020 off 8]
🔵 Marist: Harris +2 [2020 off 4]
🔵 SoCal Strategies: Harris +2
🔵 Wash. Post/George Mason University: Harris +2
🔵 Claremont McKenna College: Harris +2
🔵 NY Times/Siena College: Harris +4 [2020 off 5]
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Robinson is not a good candidate.
He has been subject to a “black lynching” as he puts it.
Both can be true.
Josh Stein is a complete leftist tool completely out of sync with NC, fortunately without the legislature or SC won’t be able to turn NC into California.
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Yeah, but PA has taken a hit too at Polymarket.
Yesterday was 60-40 today 56-44.
Fluctuations are normal but i don’t like the general betting market trend.
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61.3 to 38.8
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730482465785
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I like Trump’s chances in PA, but there are caveats, nothing was really done to curb fraud, at least in GA they tightened things up.
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Of course, we can compare all this to 2020, when the polls were showing Trump behind nationally AND in pretty much all swing states and the betting markets and we were trying to come up with ways that he could win if the polls were wrong, etc.
There is no doubt Trump is in a better place in both polling nationally, polling swing states and betting markets than 2020.
The question is are the polls still skewed against him, or have the pollsters made adjustments they claim to have.
Is there a bigger gender gap than reported? Is abortion a bigger issue than reported? Is there a hidden Trump vote not reported?
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Can you imagine the fall out if this was Trump or Melania?
https://x.com/JimmySportToons/status/1852384974332113085
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Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
I’ll be on MSNBC about 10:15 on the best coast talking about the state that matters most.”
Zzzzz..
MSNBC loves people who predict Dems will always win.
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Seltzer pole tomorrow 7 pm est.
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My take:
“The question is are the polls still skewed against him, or have the pollsters made adjustments they claim to have.”
Yes and no. Quinnipiac, at least in several states have corrected their 2020 polling error. If they haven’t then Trump is on his way to a HUGE 42 state win and +6 in the popular vote.
But I don’t believe Redfield and Wilton, Marist, CNN, and Morning Consult have changed anything from their methodology.
“Is there a bigger gender gap than reported?”
I doubt it.
Is abortion a bigger issue than reported?
I doubt it.
Is there a hidden Trump vote not reported?
Possibly, but not sure its material. Even Amish have cell phones and can respond to a survey.
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Trump is in Dearborn, Michigan, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin today.
Additional rallies can be done.
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VIRGINIA poll
🔵 Harris: 50% (+7)
🔴 Trump: 43%
🟡 Undecided: 5%
Cygnal | 10/27-29 | N=600LV
With 5% undecided, I would expect these to be shy Trump voters…and with Harris at 50%, it does look like we fall just short. Baris and Barnes said months ago, that VA would come up a few points short.
As Inigo Montoya said, “Sorry Father, I tried”
Still, it will be closer than 2020 and not be able to be called right away, and the early vote is always deep red, so it will still throw a scare into the left from 7:30 to about 9:00 p.m.
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And this is the one I am convinced has done nothing to correct their 2020 errors:
Final Swing States poll by
@RedfieldWilton
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Pennsylvania – 🟡 Tie 48-48%
Michigan – 🟡 Tie 47-47%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 48-47%
—— 110 (1.8/3.0) | N=9,742 | 10/28-31
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/final-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-31-october/
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and I am sorry, but FOUR states, all Trump 48, Harris 47? Way too neat and orderly.
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CYA… prediction right whatever the result.
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Yeah, if they are wrong in GA, NC and NV they are probably wrong in MI, WI and PA.
Not a bad argument.
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Schumer predicts a Dem sweep:
“We have decent chances of picking up three seats: We’re even in Texas. We’re a point or two behind in Nebraska. We’re only 3 points behind in Florida. So … we’re right on the edge of keeping the Senate, of winning the House, of keeping the presidency,” Schumer told supporters during the event.
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yeah, and jason its clear that pollsters not friends of Trump are having to admit that the sun belt is GONE. This means that Harris’ only hope and only path to a 270/268 EV win is sweeping the rust belt. So they have to show polling that supports that path, or else the left gives up, and with it, the senate and the house races.
Trump could be up HUGELY (and I don’t think he is), but the leftists would always say its a tight race so as to not harm Dem turnout efforts.
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schumer can say whatever he wants. I recall well Pelosi saying the weekend before election day 2010 that Democrats would score a huge victory…just before they lost 66 seats in the house.
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Rosy predictions to improve everyone’s mood.
https://redstate.com/adam-turner/2024/11/01/us-senate-predictions-n2181389
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DW called it
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president
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and its already 53/51 at PredictIT. This even though THREE out of FOUR new national polls posted at 538 today have Trump ahead, and the other is a tie.
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those poles look odd dw. Almost like they were guessing.
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and now that Redfield and Wilton has posted their final polls…here were their finals in 2020:
AZ: Trump 46, Biden 50
GA: Trump 46, Biden 45
MI: Trump 41, Biden 54
NC: Trump 47, Biden 49
PA: Trump 45, Biden 50
WI: Trump 41, Biden 53
So if they learned any lesson from last time, it was don’t have such widely disparate results among these seven states. So they accomplished that by only using the numbers 47 and 48 for their final 2024 poll.
But this doesn’t mean they ‘solved’ their problems underestimating Trump.
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Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh
·17m
NBC: Harris camp expects Trump to declare victory before counting finishes
–In other words, they expect Trump to win the election, being ahead in enough battlegrounds, but Harris won’t concede because she will need to wait for all the fradulant ballots to be brought in at 3:00 a.m. from the trunks of cars in five states.
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FINAL BATTLEGROUND polls
🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+3
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+2
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+1
🟡 MICHIGAN: Tie
@OnMessageInc
| Released 11/1
Nationally, they have Trump +2
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Just passed the venue where Governor Tampax is speaking this evening. Maybe 200 lined up waiting to go inside. Small conference center that holds 1000. He won’t fill it.
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In the last 14 national polls there is not one that shows Harris with better than +3 nationally. And even then only 2 that show her +3 which is probably what she needs to eke out an EC win.
Even with NY, CA, IL, NJ at tighter margins than 2024 it is hard to see a win in the midwest with that many “wasted” votes in those populous states.
I think that is why the RCP betting average compilation is still 60-40.
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Harris to run ad in PA with Shapiro sitting next to her.
No, Walz nowhere to be seen.
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The registered D’s have added another 15K to their lead in Pa….now up to 393K
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
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John, still nowhere near the 1.1 million they had in 2020, that the GOP cut to 80,000 on election day.
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Updated:
Pennsylvania polling from the last three and a half weeks:
🔴 Echelon Insights: Trump+6
🔴 Big Data Poll: Trump+4
🔴 Democracy Institute: Trump+4
🔴 Rasmussen Reports: Trump+3
🔴 Trafalgar Group: Trump+3
🔴 Quinnipiac University: Trump+2
🔴 Emerson College: Trump+2
🔴 OnMessage: Trump+2
🔴 Quantus Insights: Trump+2
🔴 Fox News: Trump+1
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+1
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+1
🔴 Wall Street Journal: Trump+1
🔴 Monmouth University: Trump+1
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1
🔴 Franklin & Marshall College: Trump+1
🔴 TIPP Insights: Trump+1
🔴 Wick Insights: Trump+1
🔴 American Pulse: Trump+1
🟡 CNN: Tie
🟡 Susquehanna: Tie
🟡 CBS: Tie
🟡 J.L. Partners
🟡 North Star Opinion Research: Tie
🟡 The Bullfinch Group: Tie
🟡 Hunt Research: Tie
🟡 Redfield & Wilton: Tie
🔵 UMASS-Lowell: Harris +1
🔵 Research Company: Harris +1 [2020 off 5]
🔵 Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Harris +2 [2020 off 8]
🔵 Marist: Harris +2 [2020 off 4]
🔵 SoCal Strategies: Harris +2
🔵 Wash. Post/George Mason University: Harris +2
🔵 Claremont McKenna College: Harris +2
🔵 NY Times/Siena College: Harris +4 [2020 off 5]
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I could be wrong but EV in Pa seems well below other states and perhaps 2020’s pace.
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an improvement for Trump of 1 compared to prior poll:
FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 47%
🟡 Undecided: 3%
🟢 Stein: 1%
🟣 Oliver: 1%
Washington Post | 10/26-30 | N=1,204LV
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probably because EV is complicated in PA? Not just regular walk up and vote.
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First time this cycle a website that does simulations now has Trump in the lead 50.9-49%
Updated at 1:50 EST November 1.
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024
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left media is hammering that Trumps gamble on racist comedian to appeal to his follows cost him the election
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RAS Final
Trump 49
Harris 46
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2024/election2024
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Lol Vic.
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Just noticed that the RCP battleground averages have Trump up 1.1 from .09. It looks like, at this point, that Trump have trajectory towards wins in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, which leaves the 3 blue wall states as perhaps Harris’ last stand.
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Atypically, Ralston didn’t write a morning update on his blog. Probably tough for him to put lipstick on that pig. We’ll see what tonight brings
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I still can’t believe he could lose because of NE-2
btw. Schumer is smoking something illegal if he thinks Texas is tied between Cruz and Allred
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Any word on Patrick basham /democracy institute poles? He posted some on 10/25.
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Ralston is a big fat liar. He SAID he would announce when it was time for Dems to panic in Nevada. He never believed he would have to. He kept saying tomorrow, tomorrow…maybe, what if, let’s say, if, if, but, but, and it could be, and Dems always close strong at the end of the end of the second week.
Well, the end of the second week is about here, and its time for them to panic, but he withheld his promised announcement.
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That Race to the White House blog seems off; their state predictions have Trump winning PA, GA, and NC along with the rest of the Trump 2020 states. If he wins those, the ballgame is over, lights out for Harris.
Yet, in their overall EV projection, they have Harris at 273.4 to 264.6 for Trump. That has to be some sort of modeling error.
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So, Dearborn, Michigan (coffee shop) with remarks.
Warren Michigan rally upcoming
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Some perspective on the female vote lead;
https://x.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1852427671038546129
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Oh I know Ralston is a pompous hack. I want to see his reaction when Trump, and hopefully Brown, wins.
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LOL, ELECTION INTERFERENCE.
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
JUST IN: Democratic Arizona attorney general investigates Trump for potential “death threat” after comments on Liz Cheney “I have already asked my criminal division chief to start looking at that statement.”
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4,272
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Death threat? I thought he just said that she should pick up a rifle and go fight her own wars where people are actually shooting back at her, something like that.
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GF, that’s the sort of preview of what life would be like in the Soviet State of Harris-Walz. You say something they don’t like, and you find yourself the next day in a kangaroo court, and in prison the day after.
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Yup, you want to fight a war, you go fight it.
This is protected speech and the fascist ag should know better
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FINAL NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 48%
@QuantusInsights
| 10/27-30 | N=1,832LV
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harris and Trump now tied at 53 at PredictIT. This with essentially no new information in the race the last 48 hours…back when it was 60/43
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Didn’t I say earlier that the polling was herding to the message that Trump will take the sun belt but lose the rust belt resulting in a Harris win of 270-268?
Yep! And YouGov/Times of London out with polling showing Trump narrowly winning the sun belt, but getting CRUSHED in the rust belt.
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It’s the same thing every 2 years. The last weekend is the time for the MSM to flex their muscles.
Chill out.
Come next week, we will either still have a republic, or be closer to one of those sheot-holes most of the illegals are running from. No big deal.
Cheers!
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“but getting CRUSHED in the rust belt.”
-If they are trying to push that narrative, then I will go the other way and look for a YUGE Trump victory, minimum 312 Electoral Votes.
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Thanks, Dw.
I also don’t buy winning the sun bel and getting killled in the rust belt.
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here is the full report on the Times of London. Of particular notice are their AZ and NV numbers which do not at all seem compatible with early voting data:
Final Polling by YouGov/
@thetimes
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 49% (+4)
🟥 Trump: 45%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 48% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 45%
—
NEVADA
🟦 Harris: 48% (+1)
🟥 Trump: 47%
—
ARIZONA
🟦 Harris: 48% (=)
🟥 Trump: 48%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 48% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 47%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48% 4 (3.0/3.0) | 6,600 LV | 10/25-31
So according to this pollster, the people of PA, WI, and MI have been so thrilled with the Biden-Harris regime the last four years, with the war on cars, war on oil, war on the economy, that they want four more years of this, in an significant INCREASE of the 2020 Biden margins.
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PredictIT back to Trump 54, Harris 51
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We’ve had 3 National polls out today I believe with Trump +3, Trump + 2, and Trump +1. IF those National polls are correct, he’s not losing the Rust Belt by those kind of margins.
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and looking at the Times of London senate numbers only confirms they are way out in left field:
YouGov/
@thetimes
Senate Polling
ARIZONA
🟦 Gallego: 49% (+4)
🟥 Lake: 45%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Baldwin (inc): 50% (+5)
🟥 Hovde: 45%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Casey (inc): 50% (+6)
🟥 McCormick: 44%
—
NEVADA
🟦 Rosen (inc): 51% (+7)
🟥 Brown: 44%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Slotkin: 51% (+9)
🟥 Rogers: 42% 4 (3.0/3.0) | Likely voters | 10/25-31
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EdAsante on X
Important data point, mail ballots in PA likely to be under 2M about 600k fewer mail ballots in 2020.
Rough math: about 5 million votes expected to be casted on Election Day. At this number Trump would need to win by about 10 points on Eday. He won by 30 in 2020.
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Trump has lost about 4 points at Polymarket today.
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meh, that could be people cashing out today trying to make a buck from Dems who still believe she will win.
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Not sure if this is new
Electoral Map Based on Final Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling
🟥 Trump 306 🏆
🟦 Harris 232
——
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +3.2
Georgia – 🔴 Trump +2.4
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +2.1
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +1.0
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +1.0
Michigan – 🔴 Trump +0.6
Nevada – 🔵 Harris +0.2
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And no nv update from Ralston Purina?
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Thanks for posting, Detective. However, those are all not his final numbers. He told Bill O’Reilly that he would post all of his final numbers by Sunday night.
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jason, you mentioned earlier the popular vote. I keep meaning to say that as I am loading polls into the history, even ones never talked about here, I am noticing a return to normalcy in the deep blue and deep red states, where earlier polls showed Harris weakness in dark blue states, and Trump weakness in red states, that this has now partly corrected to norms of what we might expect in late polling.
In other words, if Trump is up in national polling, it means he is positioned to win all the battleground states, and not fall short because Harris is way off the 2020 mark in CA, MA, NY, CO, WA, MD, and IL.
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Nope not yet. Waiting on them to print out some Clark County ballots.
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
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1h
It was in fact horrible news for Democrats. So bad, I thought it was a reporting error.
It was not.
Quote
Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
·
1h
Jon Ralston has posted nothing new out of NV today, which I suspect means there is no good news for Dems in the AM numbers from the Sec. of State on ballot returns and early in-person voting.
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DW, I didn’t get to hear Baris’ show, but they seemed to intimate in the comments that Rs actually won the mail vote in NV last night. Haven’t seen that anywhere else, though
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my understanding GF, is that is normal. Its the overnight mail that gets posted in the morning that eats back into the GOP lead. But the net each day overall is a growth in the GOP lead. When that didn’t really happen much this morning, Ralston went AWOL rather than telling his followers to PANIC!
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What about Fulton County?
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Tina, I am not sure that means anything. There is droppage everywhere because there is no Covid. How did the GOP counties do by comparison? That would at least say a little about enthusiasm, but even there, a highly enthused vote counts the same as a vote of someone dragged in to vote by a sandwich, shot of whiskey, and a ride to the polls.
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and Harris just took the lead on PredictIT. Not sure what could have possibly moved it unless some insiders were told what the means of theft is, and they jumped in to make money knowing its in the bag.
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FINAL Wisconsin poll from Rasmussen Reports
Trump +3
Michigan still forthcoming.
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New Thread
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I was going to load a new thread but will hold off since DW has more polls.
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At Predictit right now Trump is at 53% and Kamala at 55%.
This is because they are separate markets.
Seems like the Kamala market is being driven by a lot of bets YES while Trump’s market is fairly stable only down 2 pts today.
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