Their prior poll was Harris +2. And the new one was registered, not likely voters. Their final 2020 PA poll was Trump 45, Biden 50
๐ด Trump: 47% (+1)
๐ต Harris: 46%
Monmouth | 10/24-10/28 | N=824 RV
Also, SoCal Strategies polled Georgia and found
๐ด Trump: 50% (+1)
๐ต Harris: 49%
They also polled Wisconsin, finding a tie:
๐ด Trump: 49%
๐ต Harris: 49%
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
102 responses to “Monmouth finds Trump up 1 in PA”
That was fast
https://x.com/pbolyard/status/1851636072427487644
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Is Musk right?
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1851080997414277548
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JeffP
October 30, 2024 at 11:16 am
How about the Mennonite vote in Lancaster or York?”
They vote more and are less R than the Amish. The Dem opponent who ran against Lloyd Smucker (Amish background) in that district was Jess King (Mennonite) in 2022.
Still, this billboard might appeal to them too.
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from the comments on Elon’s post:
Trends matter. As does data. And evidence. I hope everyone sees what Elon is doing here. Heโs using ๐ as a way to document the flow of voting. So thereโs a digital paper trail. If anything goes funny then weโll have evidence.
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Update NC EV….
R’s 1,148,427 34.1%
D’s 1,105,988 32.8%
O’s 1,113,133 33.1%
Slight uptick for R’s in the last 24 hours
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
FYI…According to Axios Raleigh Black early voting is down 10% from 2020 in North Carolina and is a ‘canary in the coalmine’. I’ve lost track of how many canaries died so far in the Harris coalmine.
https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2024/10/28/black-early-voting-numbers-north-carolina
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and dems respond with:
Elon is lying, even his AI says Dems are doing great
Looks like a whole lot of Republicans for Harris are showing up.
Doesn’t matter, Dems will come out on election day and ensure a big Harris win
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And according to the NBC EV data center it is now 41%D’s, 40%R’s,19%O’s nationally.
Another 6 million or so cast their EVs yesterday.
From what I gather it went from 45-37 D’s the first couple of days then 42-40 yesterday and now almost tied.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
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The difference in the Media
Left wing: GOP controlled #SCOTUS rules that Youngkinโs voter purge of 1,600 people in #Virginia can move forward. โSotomayor, Kagan, Jackson would deny the application.โ No specific legal reasoning was provided by.
Non-MSM: The Supreme Court allowed Virginia on Wednesday to remove individuals identified as noncitizens from the voter rolls. Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Ketanji Brown Jackson and Elena Kagan would not have granted Virginiaโs request, according to the order.
Now you know why people vote D. They are fed misinformation, and distorted information.
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Some folks are claiming that since a bigger percentage of the early vote is women, that this indicates that the Rep women among the early voters are likely Trump haters since women are his worst demographic. I think this is wrong.
I think women who are students or live off of public assistance, the strongest demographic for Harris, are definitely turning out. These are almost all DEM women.
However, I would bet that many of the GOP women voting early are stay-at-home moms with husbands that work, who are fired up to vote and are voting early as well.
If Rep women were against Trump, you would see this reflected in the actual polls rather than in the EV turnout among REP women. And there are NO POLLS that show that Trump is hurting among GOP women.
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It is curious that the left pursued this, forcing Youngkin to go to SCOTUS. 1,200 ballots was not going to swing the election, as out of those, even if only half actually voted, that’s 600. And Rasmussen polled illegals and found nearly half said they would vote for Trump.
But even so, if the election in Virginia was so tight that it was within 600 votes either way, it means NC and GA were easy Trump wins, and the rust belt were fairly easy wins.
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Dems being reduced to “I suspect” rather than actual data.
Tom Santos
@tommysantos14
ยท
20h
Replying to
@Amy_Siskind
We also do not have data on how may PA Republicans are switching to Harris, which I suspect will be a higher percentage than ever before.
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Also, as Dw and others have mentioned, keep an eye out for these old poles
There is a rose national pole (donโt even know who they are. Collection dates 10/7-10/17. Releases today 13 days.
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Yes the same with Az. I suspect R are switching over to Quemala in large numbers
Serriously thought I am glad Rs are voting early. We cannot run the risk of the widespread issue with Maricartel county from 2022.
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Is trump going to ride shotgun with garbage collectors aka sanitarian engineers?
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What Ralston doesn’t say here that yesterday at this time it was only a GOP lead of some 38,000.
The late report each evening tends to grow the GOP lead, then the overnight ballots come in and knock it back down some. So being at 40,500 is stronger than yesterday at same time when the lead was 38,000, but Ralston is mute about that.
Updated, 6:15 AM, 10/30/24
Good morning, blog mates.
Some Clark mail came in overnight, cut the GOP statewide lead to 40,500, or 5.2 points.
Overall Clark mail was nearly 26,000 ballots, which again lagged beyond the 30,000 who voted in the South in person. The Dems only gained 1,600 in Clark County on Tuesday when both methods are combined, so the GOP lead overall remains robust thanks to a strong Washoe showing and especially the rurals.
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YEs, that is their latest talking point. “Polls are not taking into account all the republican women switching over and voting Kamala, as well as “white dudes” switching to Kamala because of Trump’s fascist rhetoric and threat of violence against his own people.”
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Oh wow, the 40,500 figure is the new update this am? This is worse than the previous days for Ralston Purina and the Da.
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and the Ds*
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A bit of silliness going on in social media where Republicans saying to need to get out to vote because they called us garbage. That’s the last reason to vote. We already knew that they think of us as garbage and worse. The reason to vote is DEMS are destroying the country, piece by piece, trying their hardest to turn it into a Haiti-like cesspool.
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Baris: โIt’s official. Congressional Republicans are going to end our national polling this year running slightly behind Trump.
Their numbers with non-whites just aren’t as good.
Obviously I am oversimplifying but I’d sum it up like this.
Perhaps they should’ve spent more effort courting Hispanic voters for Brown, Lake, Valadao, etc. instead of white libs in MD.
One possibility is that we are understating their share of the white vote, and that would change things for sure. But Trump is already slightly exceeding his 2020 white vote share in one ballot scenario. So, why not them, too?โ
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Looks like the choice is Nazi or Garbage.
Deal with it.
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I don’t think the 1,600 votes in VA are the issue, DW.
The Dems were afraid other states might follow suit and crack down on illegal votes.
So might as well fight it out in VA.
This is part of a larger strategy.
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WISCONSIN
Harris 51% (+6)
Trump 45%
.
MICHIGAN
Harris 48% (+5)
Trump 43%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Harris 48%
Trump 48%
LV, 10/23-28
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Horrible polls for Trump, but it is CNN.
I think they are way off, but they are either gonna look really smart, or really stupid.
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I think CNN had their National number at a tie. So these State polls donโt make much sense if Trump is tied Nationally.
How did they do in 2020?
WI – Biden +7 (6.6% miss)
MI – Biden +12 (9.2% miss)
PA – Biden +10 (8.8% miss)
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DW – to be honest, whatever reason someone has, as long as they come out and vote, thats what matters most. Whether its because they were called garbage, or they really care about the issues. Every vote matters right now
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CNN hadn’t polled MI yet, and the WI is same as their last round. Also the tie in PA is same as their last poll.
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CNN needs to put something up to give Dems a glimmer of hope. They are nothing more than state media for the DNC. We all know that by now, this only goes to prove it. There is no way in heck that she wins MI and WI by 5% and 6%. Id bet my savings on that one.
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CNN’s senate numbers:
WI Senate – ๐ต Baldwin 49-47%
PA Senate – ๐ต Casey 48-45%
MI Senate – ๐ต Slotkin 48-42%
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https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/brigadier-general-buzz-aldrin-endorses-donald-j-trump-for-president-of-the-united-states-302291636.html
LOS ANGELES,ย Oct. 30, 2024ย /PRNewswire/ —ย Brigadier General Buzz Aldrinย endorsesย Donald J. Trumpย for President ofย the United States
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Heโs still alive? I checked. Heโs 94. Cool.
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Sadly, Millennials and below generations will have no idea who he is. Even sadder, many of them believe the crap that the moon landing was faked…I kid you not.
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But if CNN says its a tie in PA, have they ever once ever been wrong in the favor of the Republican? I would think this must bode well for Trump’s chances in PA.
NC+GA+PA = 270
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The Economist forecast prediction simulation had some major changes in the last 24 hours.
They now have it tied 50-50 (Trump -6/Harris +6) because a boatload of polls showed Harris leading both nationally and in some swing states…..mostly because of YouGov which if I’m not mistaken are in partnership with The Economist. Anyway, these polls are a little dated going back to October 22…
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
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RAS has Harris +1 in NH
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In 2020, MI, WI and PA were all within 2.15 points of each other.
In 2016 the three states were all within 0.54 of each other.
And nothing substantial has changed about these states, other than the Dem’s war against oil that would impact MI and PA more than WI perhaps. But now CNN comes along saying that for 2024, there will be a 6.0 gap between these states.
Not buying it.
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even if it were a rehearsal, you can see what they really think (and hope for)
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RAS has Harris up only 1 in NH. CNN has Harris up 5 & 6 in Michigan and Wisconsin. Something has to give. Both canโt be true.
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CNN has a national tie, but Harris up 5 & 6 in MI and WI. Both of those cannot be true.
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but for MI and WI, the CNN polls will lock in the RCP average to blue from here on out.
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This is a comprehensive overview of Puerto Ricoโs trash problems, which has risen tremendously in peopleโs consciousness during this election.
https://www.theenvironmentalblog.org/2024/10/puerto-rico-trash-problem/
โThe Puerto Rico trash problem has been growing for decades. With a population of around 3.2 million, the island generates about 3.7 million tons of waste yearly. Despite being small, the islandโs landfills are full and thereโs no proper recycling infrastructure. This trash crisis affects everything from health to the economy so solutions are crucial for Puerto Ricoโs future.โ
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Our AZ poll coming out today shows Trump winning in-person election day voters by 8%.
Make of that what you will.
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That was RAS
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I am sure we will be told this was just some harmless software glitch:
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
ยท
2m
Michigan: One voter ID with 29 separate “votes” already.
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so if Republicans in AZ are polling better among election day voters…and if this is true….
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
ยท
13s
๐จ BREAKING: Arizona Republicans expand lead to 138K BALLOTS over Democrats
๐ด REP: 755,131 (+138,451)
๐ต DEM: 616,680
๐ก OTH: 455,081
Data:@MichaelPruser
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Baris: DJT is leading by 6 in the Midwest.
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Here we go again.
NEW: Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson says there is a โNATIONWIDE ISSUE with Dominion Voter Access Terminals,โ preventing voters from making certain selections.
https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1851665473240187322?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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James Carville, if I remember correctly, was bullish on Harris’ chances in an interview with CNN on Saturday as I recall. He did mention as one of his reasons was the fact that there was going to be a number of polls being released this week that showed Harris with momentum….does he have special privileges that gave him this insight from CNN? Oh, nooooooooooooo.
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After reviewing the Qualified Voter File (QVF) of votes actually cast as of yesterday, Oct 29, 2024, the database identifies 114,545 Michigan voters who have cast 279,113 ballots from multiple addresses across the state. This results in 164,568 excess ballots as of 10/29/2024.
There is one single ID voter who has already cast 29 ballots.
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Super hack Silver somewhat stated that the race has ‘now been steady for the last 10 days’ after showing a trend for Trump in mid-October. He also mentioned he might have an afternoon/evening update…..
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My rundown of election outcome indicators:
a) Behavior of the campaigns: LIKELY TRUMP
b) Early voting enthusiasm: LIKELY TRUMP
c) Early voting analysis, low propensity turnout numbers, etc.: LEAN TRUMP
d) National polling data: LEAN TRUMP
e) Battleground state polling data: TILT TRUMP
f) Incumbent Party failure in first four-year term: LEAN TRUMP
g) Direction of country polling: LEAN TRUMP
h) Generic ballot and Gallup party ID data: LEAN TRUMP
i) The “are you better off than four years ago” question: LIKELY TRUMP
j) The Carville statement, “It’s the economy stupid!”: LIKELY TRUMP
k) Foreign and national security: LIKELY TRUMP
l) Border security and criminal illegals pouring in: LIKELY TRUMP
m) The campaign that has built the broadest coalition: LIKELY TRUMP
n) The campaign most apt to benefit from voter fraud: SAFE HARRIS!
Unfortunately, that last point probably overcomes all the ones above it.
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So Carville had ‘results’ of polls in advance, polls that were not even complete?
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PENNSYLVANIA poll by Susquehanna
๐ฆ Harris: 46%
๐ฅ Trump: 46%
โโ
PA Senate
๐ฆ Casey (inc): 49%
๐ฅ McCormick: 46%
โโ
Vote by Mail: Harris +31
Election day: Trump +20
โโ 66 (2.3/3.0) | 10/18-22 | 550 L
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Final Susquehanna poll of PA…they have had Harris or Biden WAAAAY ahead all year:
FINAL Pennsylvania poll
๐ต Harris: 46% (=)
๐ด Trump: 46%
SP&R | 10/18-22 | N=500LV
And notice its a bit stale, they have sat on it for over a week.
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If Trump wins Election Day in Pennsylvania by 20 points, I donโt see how Harris wins Pennsylvania. Especially with the early vote numbers.
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FINAL WISCONSIN poll
๐ต Harris: 50% (+1)
๐ด Trump: 49%
Last poll: Harris+4
(head-to-head)
Marquette | 10/16-24 | N=753LV
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Final WI poll from Marquette in 2020 was:
Trump 43
Biden 48
They were off by 4.37 in Biden’s favor
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Apparently the word is that the CNN polls were adjusted to account for the 4% bias against Harris that previous election had in the midwest. Hence, their prediction of easy Harris victories.
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so that’s the part that Carville knew of in advance. He knew CNN was going to put their thumbs on the scale to get what they wanted.
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If Kari Lake truly is โsurgingโ in AZ, we can thank Slick Willie for telling everybody how hot she is.
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There is also a wi so cal strategies pole and itโs tied.
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What’s wrong with this picture?
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The โjokeโ was still stupid and did Trump no favors.
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So we still have to go back 12 polls of PA to find one where Harris leads, and that was a REdfield and Wilton poll that has since been replaced with a later poll showing a tie. So then we have to go back 15 polls to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult to find a PA poll with Harris in front.
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Reporter:
Do you sympathize with voters insulted by Biden’s garbage comment?
Kamala: “I am running for President. I will be traveling to 3 states today… I get it in terms of the concerns they have about challenges like the price of groceries.”
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CNN calls Biden’s comment “an unforced error”
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DW:
Always love your analysis and poll updates. You consistently are the best source of info at HHR.
However, your increasingly playing up the fraud angle and how this is a big hurdle that we need to overcome, you are coming across as so many MAGA splainers do who want to say that Trump’s re-election was stolen in 2020.
There has always been election fraud. Always. There will be fraud again this year and every election in the future.
It was Trump and his supporters who are social media influencers in 2020, that cost him the election. The DEMS beefed up their earlier advantage in getting voters to EV and VBM which the states made much easier due to their COVID antics. When Trump and the Charlie Kirks of the world tell everyone to wait until election day, they ceded the playing field to the DEMS. Then after the election, they kept spewing the nonsense that the election was stolen. MAGA voters, who like many voters dont vote in runoff elections anyway, and they didnt vote to save Herschel Walker in his senate race run-off. I dont care if cult members want to explain it, it was their fault.
Ballot harvesting, restricting early voting sites, etc. are absolutely legal in many states. Hopefully, the GOP is TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THESE LEGAL TACTICS where it is legal.
Not sure why you are getting pessimistic this week. There will be much less organized ILLEGAL ballot fraud this year because too many eyes are watching, people are aware, and most people arent going to risk getting caught. Hopefully, Whatley and Lara Trump have put eyes in the fields (polls, ballot boxes, etc.) if they didnt, again it just means OUR side blew it.
In my opinion.
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The โjokeโ was still stupid and did Trump no favors.”
I don’t have any problem with the joke itself. I think as a society we have become too woke and too politically correct and too humorless.
My problem is handing the Dems a loaded gun and saying shoot me.
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Please delete my last post.
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Quinn pole – pa trump+1
50 to 49
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Corrected-47 to 46 *
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MAHA Alliance
@MAHAalliance
Dear Kamala Harris, The vast majority of American men have no issue with electing a female president, our issue lies solely with you. Your reputation precedes you, defined by a relentless pursuit of power, from your tenure as Californiaโs attorney general to the present day. Your track record presents concerns that we cannot overlook. You are simply a risk we are not willing to take.
https://x.com/MAHAalliance/status/1849965434898161672
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Then after the election, they kept spewing the nonsense that the election was stolen.”
Nonsense?
Biden won by 42k votes in 3 states plus 80k in PA and 30k in Nevada.
Do your really think there were not enough irregularities to overcome that margin? I bet if only legal votes were counted Trump would have won all 5 states.
The fact that the Dems “gamed” the system doesn’t mean they did it legally either. Ballot harvesting may be legal in some states, but there are still rules about how they can be collected and submitted.
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However, your increasingly playing up the fraud angle and how this is a big hurdle that we need to overcome,”
It is ABSOLUTELY a big hurdle that has to be overcome, DW is right.
If Trump doesn’t win these swing states by more than the MOF, he is toast.
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There is fraud. All ballots and voting processes everywhere need to be continually monitored from the state of early voting to election night. That organizational and legal work needed to be done months ago. Hope it was done.
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The chia pet is now saying that demented did not call trump,supporters garbage.
It is on tape.
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Breaking bj is dashing to nh to campaign for quemala-wmur
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early Voting in Bucks County is allowed until this Friday, judge rules. The Rnc prevailed over the shenanigans pulled by Shitpiro and his goons.
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Done
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I am only “playing it up” because as the election stands right NOW, fraud is the only obstacle between Trump and a fairly easy win of 312 EVs or more.
If I knew that every counted vote was legit, and no votes were denied that should be counted, I would be saying that Trump is in the driver’s seat and this is all but over.
But I cannot say that. There is one reason.
But I am also not one of those who was out there saying that in 2020 Trump actually won 42 states and all the battlegrounds by huge margins. My complaint has always been what Jason pointed out, the very narrow margins in just a few states.
And in Georgia, they did it right in front of everyone’s eyes, and the evidence is overwhelming.
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โMy problem is handing the Dems a loaded gun and saying shoot me.โ
I concur. The only thing is that Joe grabbed the gun, pointed it at Harris, and pulled the trigger.
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A local ABC news station in Pennsylvania made an unacceptable move that will only further shatter confidence in the integrity of our elections as reports of massive fraud have emerged in the Keystone State.
Astute viewers in the Scranton area watching a Formula 1 race on Sunday noticed something highly unusual appear on their screens as the cars buzzed around the track. WNEP-TV, for some reason, decided to air a so-called โtestโ showing the final election results in Pennsylvania despite Election Day not being until Tuesday, November 5th.
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I agree Bitter and GF. Dumb joke, needless unforced error. But its always been this way. The Republican can fail to speak up when he sees the word spelled potatoe, and it ends his political career, while the Democrat can rape women, or get drunk and drive a car off a bridge and leave a woman inside to drown, and they stay in office.
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DW:
I appreciate your reporting of the data and the fraud examples. I just value your take on things more than anyone else on HHR and it was getting a little overwhelming to me since I attribute your views as always balanced and data-driven. Perhaps, I am just reacting to the peanut gallery taking your reports and then fixating on them.
My bad.
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And as to me being more pessimistic in recent days, its because I am seeing a bit of slippage for Trump in the polling data, while at the same time, seeing some in social media throwing around the landslide word. Unless there is an upset in NM, NH, VA, MN, or NE_02, Trump’s gotta win one of the Rust Belt states. He is not out of the margin of error in any of these three much less the margin of fraud.
And even if he gets an upset in NH, it still means he has to overcome fraud in GA, AZ, and NV.
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I am greatly heartened by the Quinnipiac poll of PA. And the fact that CNN could do no better for Harris than a tie.
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oahodges, its all good
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Itโs being reported the same โerrorโ happened in 2022 when a local AZ station reported Hobbs had won the governorship over Lake 12 days before the election. This may be an example of subliminal voter interference, as the Dems are game to try anything in order to win. In Oregon a series of ballot drop boxes are being burned in R areas, and are traced back to Dems. Dems continue to oppose any rejection to illegals voting. Here in CA itโs illegal to ask for voter ID. The SAFE Act was 100% opposed by Dems – legislation making it illegal to vote if not a citizen. Voter registration rolls are not easily maintained and cleaned unless conservative organizations like Judicial Watch sue. Mail in voting and using questionable machines in elections scanning votes have been promoted and enforced by Dems, even though they are known for higher fraud vulnerabilities. The 2020 election was basically a mixture of all of the above and more.
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Bucks county lawsuit won by the RNC, dealing with kicking people out of line before voting facility was scheduled to close.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
Hearing that internal polling in Michigan has Trump up 3, Mike Rogers up by 2โฆ
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Listening to CNN for sh!ts and giggles coming back from town.
“Kamala is up 5 in WI and up 5 in MI.
PA too close to call.
It will all boil down to PA as both Kamala and Trump have less than 269 so PA will decide.
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The CNN poll is really no change for MI and WI from their previous polls (Enten said CNN did poll MI in August and it was also +6).
When asked if these 2 new polls were significant Enten said no, they represented a static race. Then Luntz came on and he said I don’t really think Harris is up by those numbers.
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“Hearing that internal polling”
Zzzzz…..
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Rasmussen Quemala plus 1 in nh.
explains why bj will be there on Friday.
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No way Harris is up that much in the rust belt a) NH is a one point race, and b) Trump is up 6 across the Midwest in other polling.
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NEW HAMPSHIRE poll
๐ต Harris: 48% (+1)
๐ด Trump: 47%
๐ข Other: 3%
๐ก Undecided: 2%
@Rasmussen_Poll
| 10/24-28 | N=901LV
MINNESOTA poll
๐ต Harris: 50% (+3)
๐ด Trump: 47%
๐ข Other: 2%
๐ก Undecided: 2%
@Rasmussen_Poll
| 10/24-26 | N=959LV
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GOP has now piled up a 714,000 vote lead in FLORIDA early voting.
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NEW THREAD
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C
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I hope Trump has an amazing life and unites the country, both left and right
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I’d hate for him to live forever ’cause that’s not good for anyone.
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