Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
48 responses to “Another big thread? Cool.”
For Election Day we will probably preload threads for the closing times for groups of states.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dark Brandon took on a new meaning last night.
LikeLike
Another Tx pole – trump +8
And this mi pole:
LikeLike
LikeLike
note that was SUFFOLK….you know one of those 538 calls a quality pollster because they always have Dem leaning results
LikeLike
Cygnal poll for Texas. Trump +8; Cruz +4
LikeLike
seems like every four years in Pennsylvania there is an initial story about how the Amish don’t vote, and then a later one about how they decided to vote after all and will save the election for Republicans. Anyone know what is really going on?
LikeLike
Cygnal appears to be polling Pa. They indicated that muh comedian joke has had no impact on the race in Pa. In other words, no change or movement.
LikeLike
Muh comedian (2 minutes of a 5 your event) is dead and buried given trump voters are garbage by quemalas boss.
No free pass for this one.
LikeLike
I also don’t know why he was stepping all over quemalas big speech (fizzled).
LikeLike
onaldTrump·
While I am running a campaign of positive solutions to save America, Kamala Harris is running a campaign of hate. She has spent all week comparing her political opponents to the most evil mass murderers in history. Now, on top of everything, Joe Biden calls our supporters “garbage.” You can’t lead America if you don’t love the American People. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have shown they are both unfit to be President of the United States. I am proud to lead the biggest, broadest, and most important political coalition in American history. We are welcoming historic numbers of Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans, and citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed. It is my desire to be the President of all the people.
LikeLike
RAS
Coming Soon New-
New Hampshire – bat squeak tight
Minnesota – leanin’ blue
Arizona – Trump up, Lake slightly down
Georgia – bright red
Still Fielding-
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
48m
🚨 JUST IN: Nevada Republicans just extended their early voting lead again
🔴 REP: 306,905 (+42,796) [+5.5pts]
🔵 DEM: 264,109
Unprecedented.
LikeLike
The Woke Commie Dems and their propagandists remind us every day just what evil liars they are. The only way forward is to crush them on Election Day.
LikeLike
I am thinking Trump will break 300 EV… IF this election version of the big steal falls short in the rust belt. Probably a 54-46 GOP Senate and GOP House +10.
LikeLike
NV 10/29 evening update
R+42,796
R+5.6%
Clark D+3,998
Washoe R+6,280
Total Votes 774,026
Turnout 39.2%
2020 Total early + Mail 1,235,000 (D+55,082)
2020 E-day 157,000 (R+15,732)
With three days of early voting to go, it looks like the early + mail turnout will be down significantly vs 2020. I expect 2024 early + mail to be about 1,000,000.
The big question is will election day turnout be larger and significantly more Dem than back in 2020 to help make up the current Dem deficit? I will be shocked if E-day is D+ any number of votes.
LikeLike
Ralston is such a hack. End of last week he was pushing the panic button. Since then, things have gotten WORSE for Dems in Nevada, and last night he posts:
“Is it time for Dems to panic? No, no. Still time.
I’ll tell you when.”
LikeLike
Gang, any comments on party Id? I read a comment by Michael Pruser indicating that the ev is tracking Gallup of r plus 1 to r plus 3?
LikeLike
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up” – Obama.
LikeLiked by 1 person
As the Amish whisperer here I will answer the question on the Amish vote.
Unfortunately, most won’t vote. They don’t vote by mail and Tuesday is a work day. The thought of gathering the family to go vote on a work day is foreign to them. Plus, many are not even registered, especially the women.
There is a certain anger about the English “inspecting” their farms for health code violations, and there has been an effort by the GOP to register them.
I estimate turnout might be as high as 25%, and Trump will get the lion share, might be worth 15-20k votes in PA.
LikeLiked by 2 people
CNN panelist:
Biden has a stutter, that was the issue with his statement.
LikeLike
CBS says it’s an argument over “syntax”
The comments — and hasty attempts by the president’s aides to clarify his words — suggest a partisan-fueled argument over syntax could dominate the final days of a campaign with fewer than 200 hours to go”
LikeLike
The moonbats on Twitter are claiming well “Biden is not the nominee”.
Which begs the question was the comedian the nominee?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Betting markets unchanged from yesterday
LikeLike
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
3m
🚨 BREAKING: U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Virginia’s purge of noncitizens from voter rolls – allows it to stand
LikeLike
Kicking illegals off the voting rolls? Outrageous!! LOL
LikeLike
REPORTER: “People can’t afford groceries or their rent.”
KAMALA: “Let’s start with this, I come from the middle class.”
LikeLike
The Us sc is racist. I bet Kenjah struggled with this one.
LikeLike
on X, regarding the VA voter purge of illegals:
“It’s only 1600 voters, the fact that Democrats made it go all the way to SCOTUS shows you how nervous they are about VA. If they really thought she was leading by 8 points they wouldn’t have wasted their time on this.”
LikeLike
In Biden’s “correction” he says this about Trump:
“His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable.”
So a comedian makes a joke about Puerto Rico, Trump is now “demonizing Latinos”. The MSM has no objection.
Pravda would be proud.
LikeLiked by 1 person
wow, having a lot of trash laying around makes one a demon? who knew? I guess there are a lot of demons in the inner cities too.
LikeLike
“And to then not apologize, but say, oh…there was an apostrophe, he was only talking about one person. “
I DEFINITELY saw that apostrophe!
LikeLike
Amish vote in PA…
DW,
stories I have read say that in Lancaster county, of the 80,000 or whatever Amish, they mostly stay away from voting. Usually only about 3,000 vote.
LikeLike
LikeLiked by 2 people
NC is the biggest worry of the swing/close states.
Why?
The significant and sizable number of college students in all the universities there. I have no clear understanding of how they catch and disqualify college students at those universities who have already voted absentee back home in their home state and who also vote in NC.
And the youth vote is going for Kamala since they all know Trump wants to pass a federal law to outlaw all abortions, force women to have babies, and lock up any woman who has an abortion–because that is the crap they are being deluged with.
*******************
You would THINK that NC would not be close and go handily to Trump with the federal government lack of response after the hurricane devastation in Western NC.
LikeLike
NC wii go handily to Trump – 4 to 5 points I’d guess.
LikeLike
I DEFINITELY saw that apostrophe!”
I missed it when it came out of his mouth, but Walt has a trained eye.
LikeLike
PBS actually does some journalism.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/republicans-pursue-support-from-the-amish-in-pennsylvania-where-only-a-small-minority-vote-in-elections
LikeLike
Some Amish vote at my precinct, will be interested to see if there are more than usual.
LikeLike
More on Amish, their vote IS increasing.
I”n Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, 13.7% of eligible Amish voters were registered to vote in 2016, and that number increased to 24.37% in 2020. The Amish voter turnout in the county was 49.42% in 2016 and 71.27% in 2020.
The Young Center also found that more than 90% of Amish voters in every location are registered as Republicans. The Republican registration rate ranged from approximately 90% in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, in 2016 to as high as 99.57% in Holmes County, Ohio, during the same year.”
LikeLiked by 1 person
YouGov now has Republicans +1 on the generic. They had D+4 in mid-September. Everything is trending in the right direction.
LikeLike
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/frustration-boils-as-pennsylvania-voters-witness-non-english/
”A shocking scene reportedly unfolded at a satellite election office in South Park Ice Rink in Bethel Park, PA, where early voters, who had been waiting for hours, witnessed ‘vanloads’ of ‘non-English-speaking citizens’ allegedly escorted to the front by “translators” to cast their ballots.”
LikeLike
My prediction might be correct.
If 25% were registered in 2020, maybe it is 30% in 2024 with all the efforts.
If you get a 75% turnout you might get 20% voting.
Say out of the 92,000 you have 60,000 of voting age, 20k votes, 90% R.
Trump could net 15k votes.
LikeLike
@RyanGirdusky
PA Absentee Ballot Request Update:
Dem: 1,196,132 (54.7%) +18,890 since 10/29
GOP: 710,222 (32.5%) +25,211 since 10/29
Indie: 280,096 (12.8%) +8,394 since 10/29
Change since 2022:
GOP: +421,552
Dem: +232,519
Change since 2020:
GOP: -51,502
Dem: -733,452🚨🚨🚨
Over 700K less D requests than 2020 is a shocking number.
LikeLike
I have never seen this many RV polls this close to Election Day in my life. It’s the only way left leaning pollsters can keep it close.
Just one of the many ways to manipulate the narrative.
LikeLiked by 1 person
New THread
LikeLike
Hard to steal PA when the public numbers show a 700K Woke Commie Dem difference from 2020.,
LikeLike
How about the Mennonite vote in Lancaster or York?
LikeLike