Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
143 responses to “Sunday…”
First
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General Election – National
🟦 Harris 50% (+2)
🟥 Trump 48%
ABC/IPSOS | 1,714 LV | 10/04-10/08
Last poll 🟦 Harris +6
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scooter, yeah there are numerous polls like the ABC poll that have moved substantially in Trump’s direction since the prior poll
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Biden got 66% I believe
General election poll – Hispanic voters
🔵 Harris 54%
🔴 Trump 36%
Siena #A
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We will see if NBC , CBS, and Morning Insult show the race tightening
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YIKES !!!!
NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (=)
🔵 Harris: 48%
Last poll: Harris+5
NBC | Oct. 4-8
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That should have been a BOOM !!!!!
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PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 47% (=)
🔵 Harris: 47%
@J_L_Partners | Oct. 5-8 | N=800LV
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So far, there’s reason to celebrate this morning. Get your A-holes out of bed. I’m tired of talking to myself.
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i am with you Scooter… didn’t expect that from NBC…. THIS is REAL! This is HAPPENING!
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probably CBS with stick with the Harris+6 narrative….we will see.
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so Harris is bleeding Latinos, Black men, Catholics, blue collar workers…who is left where she has strong support? The alphabet community and pointy headed intellectuals?
how could that be enough in an honest election?
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how will 538 reweight these polls to keep the desired trend lines?
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out until this afternoon
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NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 51% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 48%
Last poll: Harris+4
CBS & YouGov | Oct. 8-11 | N=2,719LV
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So far, every poll out this morning has trended towards Trump.
BATTLEGROUND poll (7 states)
🔵 Harris: 50% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 49%
Last poll: Harris+2
CBS & YouGov | Oct. 8-11 | LVs
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Trump is actually +1 in the NBC Full ballot.
NBC NEWS FULL BALLOT POLL
Trump: 47% (+1)Harris: 46%Others/unsure: 7%
10/4-10/8 | 1,000 RV
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Hey Bitter, get off your ass and give us a report on this rally. Onsite of course.
https://x.com/BillyPrempeh/status/1844463106103312704/photo/1
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I know the rally was yesterday, but you can interview some eye witnesses.
Thanks.
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Harris lead in national polling at RCP down to +1.7.
That’s a Trump 85% chance according to Nate Silverhack.
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Here is their no-toss up map.
Gimme WI and call it a day.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
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The only scary thing about that map is that if Trump doesn’t carry PA and MI he is left with 268.
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Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
Take note of all the media stories reporting on the narrowing of the polls – not one that I have seen makes reference to the terrible substance and style of her media blitz last week on Call Her Daddy, The View, Howard Stern, and Stephen Colbert.
There is a reason she sank in the polls and why SNL is now treating her like a near certainty to lose. The media stories focus on the horse race without pointing out that one of the two horses just broke down at the top of the stretch and May end up being shot.
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5 Reposts
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SpaceX and Elon with a spectacular 5th Starship launch this morning. They caught the Super Heavy booster with the “chopsticks” on the launch tower, and the Starship splashed down vertically in the Indian Ocean next to the drone ship they had stationed. Couldn’t have gone any better. Moon and Mars here we come!
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The booster catch was incredible.
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I grew up in Bergen county. As I said before, I would not go to a rally for any candidate if it was in my house.
I did go to a Dole rally in 1996 and a GWB rally in 2000. That’s enough. In 2002, I was on a truck that drove through Philadelphia with candidates because I was running for Congress. Arlen specter was also running and asked me to hold one of his signs. I didn’t.
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I don’t buy that quemala has plunged over the last 3 weeks. Nothing seriously has happened over the last 3 weeks. The economh and inflation (food and energy especially) are still bad.
I do buy the poles were fake and some people fell for the fake joy.
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Joy could come from the fact that the msm polls are only now reflecting the shift because they cannot cover the reality anymore. These polls do show a move toward Trump, no matter how biased or manipulated they may have been and likely still are.
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Greg Price
@greg_price11
Raddatz: “The incidents were limited to a handful of apartment complexes… A handful.”
Vance: “Do you hear yourself? Only a HANDFUL of apartment complexes were taken over by Venezuelan gangs and Donald Trump is the problem??”
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This seems very strange. – The onumbler’s whole thing of blaming black men for quemalas problems.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/not-acceptable-obama-scolds-black-brothers-not-backing-harris-blames-sexism
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I guess we have moved on from not taking over apartment complexes to taking over some apartment complexes.
Not eating cats, dogs, ducks and geese to eating some of them.
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Martha Radditz thinks that calling it a “handful” of apartment complex takeovers is refuting Trump? LMFAO!
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Over at the DailyKos panic is setting in. They’re #1 story is “Ignore the Poll Averages”. Didn’t Ezra Klein of the NY Times say the same thing this morning?
Wasn’t these the same people that were touting the ‘poll averages’ everyday since Biden was kicked out of the race.
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I used to read DK often because I wanted to see what the other side was thinking, but its toxicity was honestly affecting me and I didn’t like it. They are the true violent extremists.
Given the fact that reality is setting in, and each day we get closer to the election is appears as if Trump just may pull this out, I think I am going to go over and see how up in arms they are.
BTW, I can not believe what I just witnessed with that Radditz clip: She honestly thinks, and believes, that a few apartment complexes being taken over by Venezuelan gangs is not a problem, its Donald Trump who is causing strife in America by letting Americans know its happening.
Because, of course, those Venezuelan gangs killing, raping, selling drugs, trafficking women, are only doing it because of the European colonization they suffered, and because America stands for oppression throughout our whole history, so, of course, they are entitled to do it. Trump, he’s the problem. Americans, they are the problem
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To wit, first article, fun (and of course unbiased and accurate) comments:
“Abortion” and “Not-HIM” will be enough to stand off the MAGA take over … THIS time.
“As is quite obvious right now, the GOP is pumping out dozens of slanted polls, 25 in the last week alone. And Cook had always had his thumbs on the scale for the Republicans.”
“Republicans will absolutely lose the House. New York and California seats will mostly flip back due to Dobbs and Harris. “
“Nancy Pelosi said they will win 5-15 seats and I believe her. She is the best vote counter in the Party.”
Oh, and my favorite: Abortion Now Top Election Issue
All from the first post with only 18 comments. LOL
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Ok. I read their analysis of the state of the election. It’s like Im living in an alternate universe. I mean, literally everything we say is the exact opposite there, and they use a Dem operatives “figures” to say Harris is running away with the election. Trump won’t get to 46%, voters are coming out in droves for Dems in early voting, swamping Republicans. The fervor for Harris is everywhere. This is one of their quotes, which demonstrates their lack of awareness:
“Trump’s anemic campaign rallies and his weak fundraising pace relative to his 2020 haul suggest exactly the lack of enthusiasm that might hurt in his turnout game. “
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Yikes.
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“Nancy Pelosi said they will win 5-15 seats and I believe her. She is the best vote counter in the Party.”
SSQ says GOD is Republican if they will win 420-430 seats in the House!
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100,000 attendees at two rallies is “anemic.”
Lol.
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Also, the poles are wrong. They need to be drat plus 6. It is 2008 redux.
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it is 2008 redux in a sense:
Unpopular incumbent party.
Bad economy.
War fatigue
Failed responses to hurricane.
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My only war fatigue is that Ukraine is not getting enough weapons.
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We are not at war with anyone.
I do wonder, regarding the anemic rally comment, what they could possibly be hearing to make them think Trump’s rallies are anemic. Is the MSM feeding them that on the nightly news? How could they. Say what you will about Trump, but he brings out massive crowds.
i challenge Harris to draw 50% of what he draws
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/you-know-its-bad-kamala-when
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Vance is getting larger crowds than quemala.
I won’t comment on Doltz.
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more nuggets from Kos:
“The percentage of young women putting abortion on the top of their issues list is way up. This, and many other pieces of information, shows that young women are likely to be far more enthusiastic and likely to vote than in years past. This is where the polls are likely off and that’s good for us.”
“This cycle is looking very unique. There will still be the normal amount of registered Democrats voting for Republicans but it appears there will be an abnormal amount of Republicans voting for Democrats this year. In short, the early voting numbers look very good for Kamala, but they may actually be hiding even better numbers in her direction.”
“All birth involves blood. Doctors know how to make the bleeding stop. Young women are the only ones who have a chance of bleeding out in the parking lot while white men bloviate about their deeply held beliefs.”
“Pennsylvania. This guy says the firewall for Dems by election day needs to be approximately 400,000. So far so good. We actually expect it to be 500,000 by election day, so blowout for Harris”
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Young women – who are most likely to choose abortions – place abortion as their top issue? In other news, water is wet.
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Abortion is the number issue.
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Can the Tx Governor fire the Tx sos? Isn’t she appointed. She just got slapped down by Paxton.
Paxton should be top choice for AG. We cannot have weaklings and buffoons in this position.
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I doubt young women place abortion as the top issue. That would be an insult to the intelligence of young women.
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We need an Ed Meese 2.0 for Ag in the trump administration.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tv/us/article-13954681/social-media-meltdown-saturday-night-live-kamala-harris.html
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Look at their take on the election:
They have Kamala winning: “she wins 319 to Donald Trump’s 219”
They are depending on this site to get their info: BTW, they have male, female and “gender expansive” as their categories. I kid you not
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024
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ruh roh
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/08/michigan-house-race-abortion-trump/
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last one, for now:
“this election…it’s women who are bleeding to death in parking lots…and, Trump said women have to be punished…and…women being arrested for having miscarriages is skyrocketing”
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Polls say women under 30 do. I guess Jason is now identifies as a trans-under 30 woman?
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I live where 90% of the Dem ads for state and Federal offices are about abortion. I don’t know if Dems even run ads in Jasonland or Vix-as.
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I read an article that scientists have mapped the brains of fruit flies. I guess curing cancer is on hold for now.
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Speaking of “anemic” crowd sizes from yesterday’s Coachella rally:
Dan Scavino Jr.
@DanScavino
WOW!!!!! Check out the view from above at tonight’s #TrumpRally in beautiful Coachella, California! #TRUMP2024
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The above picture only shows an inside view of the venue. – an equal if not greater number of people standing outside on the perimeter.
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Bitter – as you can imagine in the center and south of San Antonio its very liberal/pro illegal, and of course Austin is SF lite with LA traffic, so there are some abortion commercials (but that dog don’t hunt here in Texas outside Austin) and Allred commercials…but none for Harris, except on national broadcasts, and even then, not many of her.
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One red flag in that NBC polling data clip is that Kamala is seen as the change candidate by +5%. Not sure what to make of that with the other numbers shown.
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sane – shows you marketing works…and implicates the ignorance of the left.
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Maybe it’s a change for the worse? We can only hope LOL
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The daughter of one of our friends passed the bar and just got engaged in Texas. So Vic is getting a very pro-choice, very liberal 26 year old neighbor from Pennsylvania.
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LOL
https://x.com/realderekutley/status/1845479752284389669?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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You see Bitter, that’s the problem. They destroy the states they live in, complain and then move to states where things are better BECAUSE they are run the polar opposite of the Liberal sh*tholes they come from…and then want to destroy everything where they are moving to. It’s happened to CO, NM, happening to AZ, NV, now parts of Texas. Fortunately, there is still a very very large part of the state to counter the garbage moving here from CA et al.
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She’s 26 and spent the last 3 years in law school in Houston. She went to college in New York state. She really did not have time to ruin PA.
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Yes she is the change candidate.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/10/13/trump-detroit-comments-union-workers-michigan-jobs/75625845007/
”DETROIT — You never know what you will hear from former President Donald Trump. He’s notorious for riffing and losing track of his teleprompter.
His speech Thursday at the Detroit Economic Club, which I attended, was no different. Trump stretched what could have easily been a 30-minute automotive-related policy speech into a two-hour event that covered a lot of ground.
Yet, the members of the elite Detroit club, composed of business and other community leaders, seemed to thoroughly enjoy what they heard. They told me as much afterward.
The roughly 1,000 attendees applauded throughout and laughed at Trump’s jokes. And they appreciated what he said about protecting U.S. jobs and creating more fair trade relationships, all while lowering taxes and regulations. “
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Where did she go to school in NY. Ironically, I think the rust belt states are going to get “redder” because liberals are leaving them for places like CA, Austin, Atlanta, Aurora, etc
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I would rather watch a 2 hour video of highlights of the Mets than listen to 2 hours of Trump. But I wasn’t invited to join the cult.
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The crowd size for todays Prescott, AZ rally is also quite large.
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Excerpted from a Sasha Stone pod cast as to why she as a CA democrat left the party and is voting for Trump:
”Even now, most people I know on the Left have no idea how bad it got. That’s why they don’t understand the comparisons to January 6th. They only saw one violent riot but they saw it over and over again, yet more proof of social control.
But for many of us, it was the summer when we stopped trusting our institutions and our legacy media to tell us the truth about anything.
Everything that happened in 2020 was designed to push Trump out of power. I watched them all but rig the 2020 election using the same unseen hands. I walked away from that election no longer a registered Democrat for the first time in my life.”
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I wonder if Jan ever reads or listens to anything other than cult content. Movies? Music? Weather? Anything?
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yes. here.
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Given the moribund campaign of Harris we knew this was coming. Democrats, including Komrade Kamala, Susan Harris, Newsweek and the regular mainstream media are now stating that Trump is guilty of violating the Logan Act, and…get this, “based on the evidence that’s been reported there is enough evidence of potential crime that the FBI can and should have open investigations into the nature of these phone calls.”
That from her campaign and echoed by others today.
This is insane. Because Bob Woodward said it happened, then it must be true. Therefore, it doesn’t matter what was said on these alleged phone calls, “he’s guilty and should immediately be disqualified from the Presidential race.”
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I am sure deep state would have listened into any calls.As there is no such calls, there was nothing for deep state to listen to.
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Breaking
“COACHELLA, Calif.—The Riverside County Sheriff’s Department arrested an armed man who allegedly said he wanted to “kill the president” outside the perimeter of a Trump rally on Oct. 12, Sheriff Chad Bianco told The Epoch Times in a text message on Sunday. … We arrested a man trying to get in the perimeter with two firearms who ended up saying he was going to kill the president” – TheEpocTimes
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Since there is no Deep State, it could not listen to calls.
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LOL
Just another sign that things are going in the direction of Trump. Im loathe to believe it though. Just as in 2015 when I refused to watch the Mets in the World Series as I was afraid I would jinx them into losing just by my viewership, Im trying to not get confident or say much that is positive about this election, hence my jinxing it.
Schrodinger’s cat..
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A completely off topic, but fun item:
Army (real soldiers) and Navy (come on…the jokes write themselves) are ranking in College Football at the same time for the first time since 1960! Furthermore, they have not been each undefeated this far into a season since 1945!! Think about that, just a couple months after WWII ended.
I hope they both keep going, even run the table and meet undefeated to see who goes to the College football Championship playoff. How cool would that be…though the biggest hurdle to that happening is Notre Dame (both have to play the Irish). Still, 11-1 Army playing the 11-1 Sea “ahem” people would be fun.
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Although I tried to join the Army,Navy, Marines and Air Force, the Navy was my first choice. Unfortunately, discrimination against diabetics is ok.
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KAMALA: “Here’s the thing. Here’s the thing. It makes you wonder. It makes you wonder. Why does Trump’s staff want him to hide away? One must question. One must question. Are they afraid that people will see he is too weak and unstable to lead America?! Is that what’s going on?!”
Is she insane? Is she insane?
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I agree. Unless the trajectory changes drastically by some unseen event I firmly believe it will only get worse and be an uphill battle for Harris from this point on.
Not to give Silver credit but he was correct weeks ago that he said this was Trump’s election to lose.
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According to quemala:
Trump is hiding.
Trump won’t release his medical records
Trump will use the doj to go after his opponents.
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A little early to spike the football. Always play like you are 10 points down until the end of the game.
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I always see how Trump is doing better with Hispanics and Blacks etc. But I never see White voters mentioned. He must be losing ground with them in national polls where Kamala is leading by several % points. If he is keeping steady with them, I don’t see how he can lose. Maybe polls in general are overstating the college educated vote vs non-college vote, and that is what has the Dems in a panic.
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Bitterlaw, absolutely agree with your first statement of premise. However, here is where I disagree with you on the second sentence….
Instead of playing like you are 10 points behind I will offer that perhaps “just play like the game is tied” at this point. This is now a 48-48% country with three weeks remaining. Playing with some many points behind is risking mismanagement, gambles that don’t really need to be made now, no ‘hail marys’. yet….in other words just continue to play the game that has brought you here…a quarter point here and a quarter point here is where this is going. It will all add up in the end.
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clearly the right call to do the CA and CO events…they made the news and Harris seems rattled.
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@julie_kelly2
Never thought Kamala’s closing argument would be “we must see Donald Trump’s LDL number.”
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I wonder if Jan ever reads or listens to anything other than cult content.”
Of course she does.
She obviously gets a lot of talking points from Putin’s speeches and Russian State Media.
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Silverhack:
Sunday, October 13. This has been a pretty good week of polling for Trump. A series of national surveys released on Sunday morning showed Kamala Harris ahead by an average of 1.7 points — a result consistent with the Electoral College being a toss-up or slightly leaning toward Trump, according to our model. At the same time, the vibes have shifted more than is really justified by the data. The election remains a toss-up.
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vibes mean a lot in the last few weeks of elections
1976 -Ford vives picking up and if the election had been a couple more weeks he may have won
2012 – vibes matter. Traitor Christie hugs Obama. Had the election been held two weeks prior, Romney may have won
it’s like momentum in sports. Who had the Mets in the NL championship on May 31?
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https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/13/report-tensions-rise-between-biden-staff-and-harris-campaign/
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Funny
https://x.com/BenYiju/status/1845500631701950489/photo/1
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I wonder if I can block the word Mets. I hope the Dodgers sweep just to end this annoyance.
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I would have voted for Christie over Trump in 2016 if he did not drop out before PA voted. Still would.
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”The highlight of quemalas week was the release of her medical records.”
https://americafirstreport.com/youre-really-grasping-at-straws-cnn-panel-erupts-after-commentator-calls-out-terrible-week-for-harris/
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Rather than get into a negative back and forth on Christie which could hurt feelings I will only say, Chris Christie was good as a Republican in NJ, and I preferred him over a Dem Gov. Outside of NJ, not so much.
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Just for you Bitter
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Fat F-ck Christie is an unprincipled scumbag. He makes Trump look like a choirboy. And “good for NJ” is a crock too. He made sure his legacy was exactly zero.
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Both Romney and Christie would step on their mother’s neck if it got them on TV.
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Hi, Vic! Nice first inning there. I tight our first matchup was Monday, didn’t realize we have a game today.
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I was trying to be nice
Well…so much for this a series. Over in the first inning
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Two runs is nothing; see what San Diego did to us? And we almost did it back to them in Game 3 with a six run deficit. You have time.
I probably won’t be able to follow it much, I’m on a weekend retreat with my wife for her upcoming birthday. However, she wants to take a nap before we drive into Palm Springs for dinner later, so I can at least have the GameDay thing on the iPhone.
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In elementary school, we used to sing Beat the Mets.
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Et tu, Mika?
“Mika Brzezinski, the co-host of “Morning Joe,” summed up the concerns of many on the left in a discussion that left little doubt about the growing anxiety within the Democratic Party. “There’s this fear that Donald Trump is poised for victory,” she said. That fear has haunted Democrats since 2016, and it seems to be creeping back into the 2024 conversation.
“I think it’s fair for Democrats to be incredibly depressed. I think it’s fair for them to be discouraged. I think it’s fair for them to explore whether Kamala Harris should be doing more. Feel free to do that. These things are all legitimate,” Brzezinski continued. “I don’t know what more she can do, especially given what happened, though, in 2016. Because that was a trauma for anybody who loves this country and a trauma that didn’t end that day.”
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I will always respect Christie for finally telling Trump to F off. Christie is conservative. Trump never was.
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”Because that was a trauma for anybody who loves this country and a trauma that didn’t end that day.”
They truly are full of themselves, are they not? They love this country so much that they are happier to pursue courses of action that undermine its success and the welfare of its citizens.
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Bitter. With all due respect, Christie is not a conservative. Christie is a northeast traditional Rockefeller Republican.
with that said, he fits New Jersey, I would prefer him over a Dem, and he would never win (as already evident) outside the Northeast
btw Mets suck. But at least we made it this far. Great move not starting Manea who has an ERA under 2.70 when pitching on four days rest and 3.65 on five…which is what he’ll have tomorrow. Nice Mendoza
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I will always respect Christie for finally telling Trump to F off.”
Zzzzz…
What a load of crap.
When Trump was elected in 2016 Fat F–k Christie was the first to waddle up on the stage.
He deserves as much “respect” as a floating turd.
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Christie sold out any conservative principles he had LONG ago.
Now he is just a sad POS who thinks the MSM and the DEMS are his friends because he backstabbed Trump.
Like the Cheneys, he is despised by everybody and is just a pathetic tool of the Marxists.
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No. Christie is nothing more than a ‘useful idiot’. The guy is one part big mouth and the other part blubber. Nobody listens to him anymore and nobody cares what he thinks or cares. Christie is old news.
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Ok, Vic, perhaps this particular game is over. We’ll see as to the rest of the series.
Christie should have run in 2012; all politicians have a shelf life, and his mojo expired NLT 2014.
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Zzzzzzz. I don’t bow to Trump or Jason. I will trust my judgement over his. A-holes don’t kiss up to other A-holes.
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Christie is a fat slob. Blamed trump for him catching Covid. Vile creature
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And Putin’s buddy checks in. Zzzzzzz
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Rasmussen has Trump ahead of quemala in pa. A new pole will be released soon.
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It expired when he played useful idiot for Obama’s photo-op so he could be in the picture.
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Zzzzzzzzzzz
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Christie also phuqed up,everything he handled.
Trump transition – disaster
Christie recommended Wrong Wray – disaster
Christie recommended that trump interrupt demented-2020 debate – disaster.
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And then the phat phuq decides to attend a wh event and catches Covid. He then blames trump.
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Bitter holds Trump to a stupid holier than thou moral standard, but “respects” real scumbags like Chris Christie.
I am actually glad he doesn’t share my judgment considering how flawed his is.
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I don’t know if the above story is true or false. However, I am not sure that Doltz was thoroughly vetted. I also do think Quemala regrets choosing him.
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No. Christie is nothing more than a ‘useful idiot’. The guy is one part big mouth and the other part blubber. Nobody listens to him anymore and nobody cares what he thinks or cares.”
Exactly.
But nobody deserves that more than him.
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And doltz does give off pedo vibes.
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I would take these stories with a grain of salt. Be careful of stories that can backfire.
There is plenty of dirt on Walz that can be proven true.
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Tina blames everybody but Trump for Trump’s decisions. Typical.
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I don’t know if the above story is true or false but I will post it anyway.
Fixed it
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No, I outlined Christie’s list od recent failures as well as his stupidity for attending a wh function during Covid 2020.
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Jason wastes hundreds of posts that allegedly support Trump winning and Harris losing but won’t actually help Trump win. That tells me all I need to know about his judgement.
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Anybody not casting their vote for Trump is a useful idiot for Harris. So Jason will be judged by his own standard.
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I would be very careful with charges like that against Walz. I honestly hope they aren’t true and that no one had to go through what’s being alleged. Why didn’t this person come out before, Walz is the governor of a state.
color me skeptical
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