St. Anselm polled New Hampshire, 10/1-10/2; 2,104 LV; 2.1 MoE:
 | NEW HAMPSHIRE |
| Trump | 44 |
| Harris | 51 |
Bowling Green State University/YouGov polled Ohio, 9/18 – 9/27; 1,000; LV 3.6
 | OHIO |
| Trump | 51 |
| Harris | 44 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Moreno | 45 |
| Brown | 49 |
Tarrance Group polled Nevada, Sept. 16-19; 600LV:
 | NEVADA |
| Trump | 44 |
| Harris | 47 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Brown | 41 |
| Rosen | 47 |
RMG Research polled North Carolina Sept. 25-27; 780LV
 | NORTH CAROLINA |
| Trump | 51 |
| Harris | 47 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
113 responses to “Friday morning polls”
Rmg also has the national race tied at 49%
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https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/jack-smith-october-surprise-donald-trump.html
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I am not sure it’s an October surprise, but I think there is no way judge chutfuck will ever get this case due to 6th amendment violations, if it is not missed for standing. Whether stoner has standing was never ruled upon by Jude chutfuck.
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Judge cannons ruling that stoner had no standing is not binding in the court of commie land.
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jason could have set it up this way on the last thread:
News Piece: Vance’s beard “conveys aggression” and is “counter to women’s ideals”.
a) BBC
b) Babylon Bee
c) Politico
d) Times of London
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Just to recap, Rmg is finding Florida to be “closer” than Nc.
https://x.com/davidchapman141/status/1842179443978088665?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Jesse Watters: “Over 200 Americans are dead after Hurricane Helene and the thousands of victims impacted have been disgracefully left behind. The Biden administration has blocked ongoing rescue operations and North Carolina is living in the dark ages because Joe Biden and Kamala Harris hate Elon Musk. FEMA is now out of money, because Joe Biden and Kamala spent over a billion dollars of FEMA cash on migrants. Illegals got luxury hotel rooms, but Kamala’s just tossing Helene victims $750 and heading back on the campaign trail. This must not meet her standard for giving extra resources- she only wants to do that based on equity.”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113247305286057295
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And Trump has led in ALL of the last six polls of North Carolina, including a very diverse collection of pollsters:
East Carolina University, RMG Research, Washington Post, Quinnipiac, Emerson, and Insider Advantage.
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Vic for you:
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Tamm Baldwin did not attend the quemala rally.
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Of course we get a strong jobs report a month before the election. Who didn’t see that coming.
JUST IN: A strong jobs report. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September. That’s way above expectations and a nice bounce from 159,000 in August. (Both July & August revised up)”
**************
And they will be “revising” that down in a couple of months.
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ssq texted me.
She had a question about the doc workers strike.
She thought it would be much harder for people to get medical care.
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From the last thread, Tina posted.
As I posted yesterday, Remeber when the free passer jumped on the +5 or +6 sea of blue poles,
No. I don’t because it never happened.
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Retired NASCAR driver likely headed to federal prison:
Headline: Hero NASCAR Driver Greg Biffle Rescuing Family Stranded In Mountains With His Personal Helicopter After Hurricane Helene
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I think that people should help others with whatever they can. I just hope that the pilots are coordinating with air traffic control to avoid issues.
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Vic/DW – I don’t know who the Mets will start as pitcher in Game 1. Phillies will start Wheeler. His record as a starter in Game 1 of playoff series is 7-0. Which means….nothing.
I predict a 4 game series. The Mets are on fire but last night’s win can either carry them or be emotionally draining. I will predict Phillies win the series 3-1.
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Those polls suck for the most part, but NC is encouraging.
It seems like Mark Robinson is putting in a real effort to help the flood victims and it get the allegations against him off the front page.
He won’t win but it if he lost by 15-20 like some polls show it could drag Trump down.
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I would volunteer Lupita to help, but I worry those people in the NC mountains might be hungry and we know they will eat just about anything.
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That Terrance poll is quite dated.
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NH is a disappointment, I guess they replaced “Live Free or Die” with “Die”.
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https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1842214198090097009?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Polymarket:
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“The Mets are on fire”
There is a fine line between “on fire” and “dumpster fire” and their bullpen can quickly throw games away. I have no idea how it will play out, but clearly the Phillies are the favorites to win.
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Exactly four years ago, Saint Anselm had New Hampshire at Trump 41, Biden 53, a gap of 12 points, compared to their gap now of 7 points. Their final NH poll tightened it up to Biden +8, which was basically spot on. So if they narrow their final poll again this round by 4, then their final poll would be Harris +3.
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Good news!
Ukraine to get new high precision bombs.
The U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed that Ukraine will receive the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) as part of a multi-year deal with Boeing. These advanced bombs, which will be used with Western-supplied F-16 fighters, are expected to greatly enhance Ukraine’s precision airstrike capabilities.
Despite its relatively light weight of 122 kg (about 270 pounds), the bomb packs a 93 kg warhead capable of penetrating fortified positions and causing significant damage.
It can be set to detonate in the air or after penetrating obstacles, such as reinforced walls or bunkers.
The bomb’s foldable wings allow it to glide for several kilometers when dropped from high altitudes, giving it a range of up to 110 kilometers (68 miles). This allows fighter jets to strike targets from a safer distance, reducing their exposure to enemy air defenses.
With these bombs in their arsenal, Ukraine will be able to conduct more precise and devastating airstrikes against Russian forces. This could shift the dynamics of the conflict, giving Ukraine the ability to target critical infrastructure and fortified positions with greater confidence and fewer risks to its pilots.
As Ukraine continues to integrate Western military technology, tools like the GBU-39/B will likely play a critical role in its strategy to counter Russian advances and regain control of occupied territories.”
The Putinistas will whine that the bombs aren’t going to flood victims in NC in 3, 2, 1..
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Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh
·
47s
🚨 CNN ANALYST: Just 28% of Americans think the U.S. is on the right track. The incumbent party usually loses when that number nears 25%, and wins when it is near 42%. This is a bad sign for Kamala Harris.
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thanks for posting that Tine
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Trump only down 51%-49% in Michigan on Polymarket. I don’t remember it being that close when I looked the other day. I could be wrong !!!!
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
11m
Something is going on in Polymarket. WI/MI/NV are nearly back to 50/50, PA is Trump 53-Harris 47. People seem to be a bit spooked by recent data.
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TEXAS poll
🔴 Trump: 51% (+10)
🔵 Harris: 41%
CWS | Sept. 4-9 | N=504RV
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That Texas poll is dated. Might have already been posted here.
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I think its Phillies in 5 because of the Mets bullpen. They usually hit Nola hard and outside of Wheeler no one in the Phillies rotation scares me
I forgot, what’s their bullpen like. I do remember the Mets taking three out of four from them last time they played, and should have taken two of of three against them in Philly BUT the bullpen blew a lead late.
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Just some stats to show the total counts of polls per state, since Harris took over for Biden or was rumored to do so:
PA: 77
MI: 58
WI: 57
NC: 56
AZ: 48
GA: 48
NV: 36
FL: 24
VA: 16
MN: 16
TX: 15
CA: 12
OH: 12
NH: 9
NM: 8
MT: 7
NY: 7
MD: 6
IN: 4
MO: 4
NE: 4
AK: 3
ME: 3
RI: 3
IA: 2
CO: 2
WA: 2
ND: 2
MA: 2
DE: 2
NJ: 2
IL: 1
UT: 1
AR: 1
OK: 1
WV: 1
SC: 1
CT: 1
OR: 1
TN: 1
VT: 1
None: AL, HI, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, SD, WY
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
14m
DESANTIS: We prepared for the hurricane. We learned in Florida long ago: we don’t rely on FEMA to do any emergency rescues & rapid disaster operations. It’s basically just a bank account. We take the matters into our own hands for preparation, rescue and response.
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Supposedly this guy is the Co-founder of the Lincoln Project.
Mike Madrid: “We’re now in a place in the race where we’ll have to look for other pathways for Harris to win with a shrinking share of Latino voters.”
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Mets won 3-1 in Citi Field. Phillies have a solid bullpen.
Hoffman
https://www.mlb.com/player/jeff-hoffman-656546
Strahm
https://www.mlb.com/player/matt-strahm-621381
Estevez is on Phillies due to a trade. 2.45
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The $750 is not even per person. It’s per household. This is a freaking sheot show.
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He may be my favorite candidate for office this cycle.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/republican-senate-candidate-hung-cao-reveals-he-helped/
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it wil be interesting to see how the week layoff affects the Phil’s. The Mets have been playing effectively playoff games for three weeks
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Day 8 are the gop-e even engaging on the hurricane relief? Wha a missed opportunity.
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“$750 is not even per person”
Oh? I had thought they were offer up $750 total for all the victims to split up.
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The $750 is open to illegals I bet , or non citizens.
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We’re now in a place in the race where we’ll have to look for other pathways for Harris to win”
We know what that is.
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rump only down 51%-49% in Michigan on Polymarket. I don’t remember it being that close when I looked the other day. I could be wrong !!!”
Not wrong, it was as low as 60-40 for awhile.
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new Data For Progress national poll has Harris up 3, 46/49. prior poll was by 4, 46/50
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CNN has segment on “what impact will Bruce Springsteen’s endorsement of Harris have on the race”
You can’t make this sh-t up.
A Marxist endorses a Marxist.
Zzzzzz…
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An example of “other pathways”
“Scott Presler is a force of nature. Everywhere the man goes, things change for the better, whether it’s voluntarily cleaning up city streets or getting people registered to vote, increasing the chances of Trump winning in any given area significantly.
But Presler is also uncovering attempts at election interference.
According to Presler, he uncovered an attempt by the Pennsylvania Department of State to begin maintenance of their registration system during the Trump rally. As Presler stated in an interview with Human Events Daily, the registration site announced that the registration website will be “undergoing maintenance” during Trump’s big return in order to deaden the hype around his appearance and hopefully cause fewer registration sign-ups.
As Presler noted, usually when maintenance is done, it’s in the “wee hours of the morning,” however, this particular maintenance was scheduled between 6 pm and 12 am. The Trump rally that day was going to begin at 5 pm.
“It was clear that the Pennsylvania Dept. of State was engaging in election interference, trying to stop all this national attention from translating into new voter registrations,” Presler told Human Events.
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Predictit still has Harris 60-40 odds for WI.
Predicitit is moribund, it is fighting the order to be closed so it has very few markets. Only has 2 swing states, GA and WI, last election it had every state.
The small volume, especially on the state markets, makes it easier to manipulate.
Polymarket, on the other hand, has heavy volume on most markets, much harder to influence unless you want to invest a lot of money.
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Interesting that https://x.com/IAPolls2022 has suddenly gone dark. No updates for a while now. I wonder if whoever runs it decided to help hurricane victims and was therefore taken out by FEMA?
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CNN now has segment on how “Doug Emhoff helps the ticket”.
Yes, I am stuck watching CNN at the moment.
GFYs.
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airport?
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CNN very upset Trump and Kemp campaigning together.
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Restaurant. I can’t hear but I can read the chyrons
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PORI Israeli 🇮🇱 Poll:
Support for U.S. president
All
🔴Trump 54%
🔵Harris 24%
Jews
🔴Trump 58%
🔵Harris 23%
Arabs
🔴Trump 28%
🔵Harris 26%
Better for 🇮🇱’s security
All
🔴Trump 58%
🔵Harris 20%
Jews
🔴Trump 64%
🔵Harris 19%
Arabs
🔴Trump 27%
🔵Harris 24%
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J.L. Partners is a UK org:
BREAKING: Trump opens up biggest lead yet in latest election forecast
🔴 Trump: 287 🏆
🔵 Harris: 251
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 56.7% (+13.5)
🔵 Harris: 43.2%
SWING STATE ODDS:
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump 70.4%
🔴 ARIZONA: Trump 69.8%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 68.4%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 60.3%
🔴 NEVADA: Trump 57.8%
🔵 MICHIGAN: Harris 51.9%
🔵 WISCONSIN: Harris 56.3%
JL Partners | Oct. 4
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“Restaurant. I can’t hear but I can read the chyrons”
Now you know how I feel, Bastard !!!!
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NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 49% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 46%
🟡 Unsure: 5%
Data for Progress | Oct. 2-3 | N=1,211LV
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what was the previous?
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
4m
AtlasIntel is back in the field in battleground states.
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DW
October 4, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Edit
new Data For Progress national poll has Harris up 3, 46/49. prior poll was by 4, 46/50
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oh no we have met the mid day lull
Jason – do they serve scrapple at the restaurant you;’re at?
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No, it is a restaurant for the English.
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Can’t you bastards get ONE national freaking poll with Trump leading outside of Rasmussen?
Thanks.
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did you sneak in salt and pepper, or is that allowed there?
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New National Poll
Trump 48.3%
Harris 47.4%
Others 2.6%
1043 LV Sept 30 – Oct 3 Palladin Polls ©2024
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Dfp is a leftist group right? I automatically toss partisan poles.
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I am sure they will call Jd a racist for calling Quemala a blip.
JDVance1: “In 32 days, we are going to change the leadership of this country and rebuild the American dream stronger than ever — We’re going to look back at Kamala Harris as a blip in the radar, as the one brief exception to the great American story.”
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Data for Progress is a Dem polling firm, but not the worst one for sure.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
6m
This is ridiculous. Reports are now emerging that FEMA is blocking helicopter rescues in the areas that need it most in North Carolina.
Of course. If these people in these rural areas are rescued instead of being left to die, then they might vote for Trump and decrease the chances Harris has to flip the state.
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FEMA shuts down air access in nc? People cannot fly in supplies/drop supplies. FEMA, if true
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My guess is its restricted airspace, not shut down. Meaning they would control who goes in and out, and attempt to keep out unneeded people from interfering with aid flights coming in and going out…if they are actually coming in and out.
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Virginia early voting update. Yesterday the four GOP leaning congressional districts added a net gain of 132 more ballots cast than the five Democrat leaning districts.
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NASA about to spending 5.2 BILLION to send a probe to Jupiter’s Europa to make sure its still there, but only $750 per household for flood victims.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
3m
BARIS: Our poll has Trump ahead by 3 points in Nevada.
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https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/04/comparing-helene-to-katrina-suggests-americans-are-left-to-die-because-democrats-run-the-white-house/
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https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/04/sources-femas-failure-leaves-hurricane-helene-victims-crying-out-for-help/
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Thanks Vic!
I am sure Polaris is running with that poll!
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Trump + 7 in Ras daily tracker
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I don’t pay attention to his daily tracker as it fluctuates, but I wonder if this is the fist pole with Quemalas Katrina becoming a factor.
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Lol.
So Kamala was speaking in Michigan just now and Joe Biden decided to counter program her by going to the White House briefing room for the first time as president and talk about how she was a “major player” in all the horrible things he’s done.
Biden on Kamala: “We’re singing from the same song sheet. She helped pass all the laws. She was a major player in everything we’ve done.”
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BREAKING: Biden has reversed his decision to drop out and is once again the nominee:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
2m
Biden, when asked if he wants to reconsider dropping out of the race: “I’m back in.”
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LOL yes, were going to the 30,000 ft view of it, and apply the delbov curve as well, as we frisk the internals and make the proper adjustments
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New Redfield and Wilton national poll has Trump 46 Harris 48. A gain of 1 point from their last poll. Seems to be a trend.
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From that poll:
The economy is the most-selected issue for both likely Donald Trump (73%) and Kamala Harris (62%) voters.
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He hates her. CN and n pulled away.
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Also:
Finally, 47% think most of their neighbours are voting for Donald Trump, while 44% think most of their neighbours are voting for Harris.
Notice the British spelling of neighbours instead of neighbors.
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And actually his I am ack in was pretty funny,
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UST IN 🚨 From Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC):
“🚨INTRODUCING legislation to terminate FEMA’s Shelter and Service Program for illegals 🚨
This bill will demand FEMA to stop funding illegal aliens and redirect funding to support Hurricane victims.”
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Now there is a smart piece of legislation. Make the vulnerable dems vote NO to that during an election year.
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Benny Johnson
TROUBLE IN PARADISE 🤣
CNN just accused Biden of “overshadowing” Kamala by addressing the port worker’s strike before she did in an unusual White House press briefing
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Who was the poster who would scream “THIS IS REAL!!! THIS IS HAPPENING!” whenever something potentially big seemed afoot? Was that Nicky Numbers? I heard that line in a film the other day, and it immediately brought that memory to the forefront.
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uh oh Bitter….senga coming back to pitch game 1. Going to be interesting to see. He’s the type of pitcher to give the Phillies fits. We’ll see if he’s sharp
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“In September, the number of government workers as tracked by the Household Survey soared by 785K, from 21.421 million to 22.216 million, both seasonally adjusted (source: Table A8 from the jobs report). This was the biggest monthly surge in government workers on record (excluding the outlier print in June 2020 which was a reversal of the record plunge from the Covid collapse months before).”
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/behind-todays-stunning-jobs-report-record-surge-government-workers
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Spencer Smith 🇺🇸🇰🇪🇩🇴
@BroSpencer
Just got off the phone a Pastor in the midst of the flooding in TN/NC. He is in one of the most devastated locations. He verified a few things about the situation:
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Local Sheriffs have threatened to arrest FEMA workers if they hinder rescue and aid work.
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The country is gone, when the federal government has weaponized literally everything including withholding aid in an emergency when its a Republican area hardest hit.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/spacex-engineer-north-carolina-has-dire-warning-biden-harris-fema-actively-blocking
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We’ll see. Sanchez goes in Game 2. I trust Wheeler in Game 1.
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So that was my question about voting. Is the area hardest hit a blue or red area. If it’s very red, is it enough to flip NC towards Harris. if so, then we know why they won’t help AND why the media won’t cover it not helping. instead lying to the American public saying relief efforts are great under Harris.
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Bitter/Jason to fact check the legality of rescue operations by the private sector in NC in 3-2-1 seconds. If helicopters are flying in goods or rescuing trapped people without FEMA’s approval arrest, indict and send those concerned citizens to prison expeditiously. After all the government’s rule of law must be followed at all cost, especially when it involves republicans. However, if democrats manipulate or erase the laws then legality doesn’t matter, because using a blindfolded eye of justice is the norm.
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Its a red area of NC. Ashville proper no doubt has some Dems there, but the rural areas are deep red.
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Early vote in Florida. And remember, early voting has traditionally been very heavy Dem. But this time around, look how close it is:
Registered Republicans: 46,348
Registered Democrats: 50,661
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the joy of unnamed sources:
Emerald Robinson ✝️
@EmeraldRobinson
·
6h
BREAKING: Kamala Harris’ internal polls have her trailing Trump in swing states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — per source familiar.
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Well slottkin is running ads against quemala ev mandate and says she does not drive a ev.
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Will we soon get to the point where the gubment shoots down those private helicopters/pilots that are assisting?
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NT
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