According to new polls done by TIPP in Michigan (8/20-8/22; 741 LV), and POS (8/8-8/20; 500 LV) in Montana:
 | MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 48 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Rogers | 39 |
| Slotkin | 49 |
 | MONTANA |
| Sheehy | 51 |
| Tester | 44 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
9 responses to “Trump down 2 in Michigan, Rogers down 10, Sheehy up 7”
firdt
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ah. The sweet taste of victory
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That FDU poll showing Harris up 7 nationally over Trump? It turns out it was a PUSH poll. The actual Poll had Trump leading by 1 point:
“To examine the effect of race and gender on vote choice, an experiment was embedded in the survey.
In the survey, before being asked who they were supporting in the Presidential race, respondents were given a list of five issues, and asked which ones were important to their vote. The issues included Tax Policy, Immigration Policy, Climate Change, Abortion and Foreign Policy. But not all respondents got the same list. In addition to randomizing the order of the issues, one-third of respondents were given “The Race or Ethnicity of the Candidate” as the last issue before the vote choice question, and one-third were given “Whether the Candidate is a Man or a Woman” as their last issue. The remaining one-third got all five of the issues, in no particular order.
This survey experiment means that we can compare the voters who were primed to think about race or sex with those who were not, and because the assignment to these conditions is done at random, we can be confident that any differences between the groups are a result of the priming, and not other factors. The effects are enormous.
Among voters who were not primed to think about the race or sex of the candidates, Harris and Trump are tied (47 to 48)”
Funny how when its a leftist pollster and the GOP candidate leads by 1 point, they call it a tie.
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From the NY Times, on why Harris is polling so well, and may through the election…because she has not been exposed like all other candidates to 15 months of grueling inspection.questions.scrutiny. She gets a “free pass” because she just entered the campaign. See below:
“Harris is benefiting from the short campaign. She has been able to avoid releasing detailed policy ideas — which Trump could attack — with the plausible argument that she wasn’t even a candidate until last month. She hasn’t been tested in spontaneous settings. “If Biden had withdrawn a year earlier, Harris would have struggled in a marathon race,” Scott Reed, the Republican consultant who managed Bob Dole’s presidential campaign in 1996, told me.
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Really need Sheehy and Moreno to win these seats.
IF Kamala wins and Rs control the Senate, the Dems won’t be able to get rid of the filibuster and some of her agenda won’t pass.
If only MT and WV flip Rs will have 51 seats, not much insurance. Murkowsk and Collins might vote with the Dems on codifying Roe vs. Wade.
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very insightful DW. The sad part is, as we saw with the Bill Maher interview with the CNN correspondent, they absolutely believe they are being unbiased and fair, when they are clearly demonstrating political bias and even animosity towards GOP candidates.
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I have to believe a bill to codify Roe v Wade would not make it out of the House, but who knows. Comrade Kamala might actually find a way to exec order it somehow…
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I was assuming Dems control the House, which of course is not a given either.
If Kamala wins but Rs control the House and Senate then she will try to rule by EO, but she will basically be a lame duck from Day 1.
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