According to a new poll by Roanoke College taken 8/12 – 8/16 against 691 LVs with a MoE of 4.5:
 | VIRGINIA |
| Trump | 42 |
| Harris | 45 |
| Kennedy | 6 |
| West | 2 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Cao | 38 |
| Kaine | 49 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
88 responses to “Virginia in Play!”
First!
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Kamala uses paid actors to fill up restaurant in Pittsburgh. Black guy with Mean Tweets T-shirt not having it…
https://x.com/sdemarcoii/status/1825321770397680012?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1825321770397680012%7Ctwgr%5E50d65fd491a7db53e4b9d2f9b9d5ef93aaa457a3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fnick-arama%2F2024%2F08%2F19%2Fpatrons-furious-when-they-all-got-tossed-out-of-famous-restaurant-to-have-staged-event-for-harris-n2178284
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Joe Cunningham:
“Most of Monday Night Was Spent Defining Trump. Very Little Was About the Future.
“But the various speeches last night were a mixed bag of topics that only had one thing in common – very little of it had to do with why people should vote for Kamala Harris. Instead, the bulk of the night was spent defining Donald Trump as an insurrectionist, criminal, felon, predator, out-of-touch rich guy, etc.”
But of course Trump should stop the “personal attacks” and “focus on the issues”.
In other words, commit political suicide.
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Nonetheless, I wouldn’t encourage Trump to spend a single day in Virginia the rest of the campaign.
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No issues were discussed at the drat convention. Nothing on the economy, inflation, declining median income. Median income is now down 3.9 percent.
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Wages down 3.9%*
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same poll has head to head Trump 44, Harris 47
And for those keeping score at him, their prior poll was Trump 38, Harris 40. So the difference after the swap was a negligible 1 point.
Virginia is going to move back into the Aggregator grid.
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Virginia is gettable. And its important. Polls close at 7 pm, and by 8 pm, a significant number will have been counted. And if its a big Trump lead (waiting for northern Virginia to release), it could strike some fear into the Dems. And by 8:45 pm, enough will be release to have a good idea who will win VA. If Trump pulled off an upset here, its game OVER before the polls even close out west.
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports @Mark_R_Mitchell
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13m
Democrat “Right Track” inching it’s way back down from euphoria at 62%.
At 53% today.
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Seems like day 1 was a bust. Too negative and no discussion of vital issues.
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Why? Trump could win VA but lose PA, GA, and NC. Is it likely? No. But every state is its own battle.
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Virginia might still be in play, but not NE_02:
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District poll by Remington Research Group
🟥 Bacon (inc): 46%
🟦 Vargas: 44%
—
President
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Fav/unfav
Harris: 50-46 (net: +4)
Trump: 42-53 (-11)
——
Which candidate will be best for…
The Economy
Harris: 47%
Trump: 46%
InflationTrump: 46%Harris: 45%
ImmigrationTrump: 46%Harris: 44%— 28 | 656 LV | 8/14-17 | MoE: ±3.8%
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/20/harris-leads-trump-in-new-nebraska-2nd-district-poll/
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No faux news debate. Quemala backs out. Remember when the free passers were adamant that trump “should accept the debates?”
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/awful-bidens-final-indignity-angry-old-man-demoted-midnight-speech-dnc
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From the Roanoke poll:
Fav/unfav
Imagine the topline number had Trump picked Youngkin instead of Vance.
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And keep an eye on the VA Senate race. Reminds me a lot of the Warner/Gillespie race where Warner was consistently ahead by 10-12 points, and suddenly at the end Gillespie closed the gap, and Warner was bailed out by a sudden drop of 9000 votes in Northern VA that went 9000-0 in favor of Warner.
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Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll
·
7m
TODAY – Is Kamala Harris The Best Democrats Could Do?
65% of Independents say No, 60% of them also consider the process of how she became the nominee unfair. Yikes!
Don’t let legacy media polls fool you, Democrats are in real trouble.
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No issues were discussed at the drat convention. Nothing on the economy, inflation, declining median income. Median income is now down 3.9 percent.”
But didn’t I read here that personal attacks don’t work and that Trump should unilaterally disarm and just talk about the issues?
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And so with NE_02 apparently off the table for now, that diminishes the value of Trump’s path of GA+AZ+NV+NE_02 to get to 269.
And with a sizeable gap still in ME and NH, it means Trump needs something from the rust belt states. Pennsylvania has held up the best in the Trump vs Harris matchup.
GA+PA=270.
That’s the best path.
It relies on just flipping these two states, and GA is already trending strongly toward Trump.
It also can end the election on the east coast, meaning we won’t have to wait a week while the west coast states count their ‘ballots’ to see who wins.
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I don’t think NE-02 is off the table based on that one poll.
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I believe it. The reason Biden was knocked off prime time was “raucous applause”
“Because of the raucous applause interrupting speaker after speaker, we ultimately skipped elements of our program to ensure we could get to President Biden as quickly as possible so that he could speak directly to the American people. We are proud of the electric atmosphere in our convention hall and proud that our convention is showcasing the broad and diverse coalition behind the Harris-Walz ticket throughout the week on and off the stage.”
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“I don’t think NE-02 is off the table based on that one poll.”
I did say “for now” and would welcome additional polling. But this was Remington, a reliable GOP polling firm. Had it been NY Times/Siena I would feel much better about it. Hopefully the gap will close.
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NY Post cover…
https://x.com/Jules31415/status/1825775217945244106/photo/1
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So far PredictIt is unmoved by the first night of the DNC
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No point spending too much time on the polls right now. They could be completely undone depending on whether Trump is sentenced to jail September 28th. Until we see how that plays, it’s difficult to get a reading on where the race is going.
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It’s good to see Bacon holding his own in NE-2. The margin in the House will be razor thin again after this election.
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Although their poll shows a tie, TIPP thinks Trump has the edge in WI.
https://tippinsights.com/why-trump-is-poised-to-reclaim-wisconsin-in-2024/
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Bragg is giving Merchan an out on the sentencing…..it might not happen in September
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I tried to watch portions of the DNC convention. Given my bias, I knew I would not find it particularly impressive or entertaining. However, it was far worse than my lowest expectations in how phony and artificially contrived it appeared, with old dem establishment icons dominating the speakers – Hillary, Maxine Waters – versus the real stories from real people at the RNC convention. Biden’s performance was sickening, in lieu of the House’s report coming out demonstrating the depth of his family’s corruption, financial gain over the years.
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jason, its not just TIPP in Wisconsin. Mark Mitchell at Rasmussen says Wisconsin figures to favor Trump more than PA or MI. Whoever the final winner is, the gap in Wisconsin figures to be narrower than those other two. The margins were very tight in the last two rounds:
2020: WI 0.63, PA 1.33, MI 2.78
2016: WI 0.77, PA 0.72, MI 0.23
I recall well the 2016 election night coverage and how none of the data analysts had prepared for Wisconsin at all, and so when the anchor asked Chuck U. Todd about Wisconsin, he literally replied well, lets take a look at Michigan. The ABC data guy was too full of himself to try such a tactic, and thought he could talk about Wisconsin without the show prep.
So he said, yes, let’s take a look at Madison County. And surprise surprise he couldn’t find it on the map. Finally, after fumbling around he went to Dane County and was noticing how similar the numbers were to [the non-existent] Madison County.
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a chance for a flip in MD_06:
Aug. 6-11
400 LV
Public Opinion Strategies
Delaney (D) 42%
Parrott (R) 40%
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I absolutely disagree Trump should not campaign in VA.
He should campaign there and in NH, NJ, NM, CO, NE-02, you name it.
Campaigning in blue areas like he did in the Bronx and NJ and Philadelphia is great media.
Kamala is going to be going where it is safe and she can preach to the choir.
Trump would be smart to do otherwise.
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jason is absolutely correct. And while NJ and CO might be a stretch, Virginia is possible to flip and hugely strategic. Youngkin has cleansed the voter lists of non-voters and illegals, and one path that could work if Dems steal WI, MI and PA, is:
GA+VA+NV=270
I still think the better path is
GA+PA=270
But before this is over, one path may be no more likely or unlikely as another.
But campaign like you want many paths. And Jason is right, a stop in CO or NJ would garner attention and get more coverage than a run-of-the-mill campaign stop in GA or AZ.
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Andy Beshear says he wishes someone in JD Vance’s family would get pregnant by rape.
But hey, Republicans should “focus on issues”
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The purpose of rallies doesn’t necessarily mean you will win that state or that city or that county.
They motivate people far from the rally site itself, for example Hispanics everywhere could be favorably impressed if Trump did a successful rally on the NM border.
Look at all the attention the Bronx rally got even though Trump is not going to win the Bronx or even NY.
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The NY Times had another gushing story about how great Biden is/was and how he will go down in history as one of the great. All you need to know about the article is this little tidbit, and you’ll guess the rest
“thanks to the failure of the market-based economic policies of the past half-century — which are often known as neoliberalism — to deliver broad-based prosperity.”
Democrats actually believe that we are not a prosperous nation. You can’t make this crap up. Even low income families have multiple phones, multiple TV’s, multiple cars per family, and more luxuries than ever before.
Think about the typical middle class family in 1950. They lived in a 2000 sq ft house, with maybe, and I mean maybe one TV, one radio, and one car. They went out to eat maybe once a month (it was a real treat), maybe took a vacation every other year, had simple Christmases, etc.
Today’s middle class family lives in a 3000 sq ft plus house, has at least two cars, everyone has a cell phone, computer, TV’s or big monitors, goes on vacation once or twice year, eats out multiple times a week, etc. and today’s middle class is significantly bigger than it ever was, but yeah…market based economic policies didn’t work…we need socialism
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Most people even have indoor plumbing….snifff
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Someone wants to get rich. There is actually half a million dollars bet on D Presidency, R popular vote.
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-presidency-popular-vote?tid=1724172752651
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Maybe GA IS serious about combating fraud.
Seems common sense to me, but 2 board member voted against it
https://x.com/TrueTheVote/status/1825586641362112548?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1825586641362112548%7Ctwgr%5E38cefdecbc660f4edc21389b5737ffde80ef8854%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F667814%2F
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RFK Jr is considering dropping out and endorsing Trump. It’s just being considered, not affirmed.
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That would be huge, but I will believe it when I see it. That would put Trump over the threshold I believe, as it seems Kennedy is hurting him more than Komrade K
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Good news in PA:
Michael Whatley@ChairmanWhatley
The @GOP and @PAGOP just secured another major election integrity victory.
After a court battle, a Pennsylvania judge affirmed that incomplete mail ballots without required “secrecy envelopes” will not be counted.
This is a big win for mail ballot safeguards.
—Dems to say this is racist in 3…2…1…
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Great. The anti-vaccine kook vote can be locked down.
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I am torn on the RFK rumors. Some state he still seems to hurt Harris more than Trump. Other states its the reverse.
Of course if he drops out and endorses, that probably helps, rather than drop out and not endorse.
This rumor vindicates my decision after Harris took over for Biden to just change the aggregator to Other instead of RFK. It was the right decision to include him specifically prior, because he was collecting upwards of 10% of the vote.
But Biden dropping out caused two things to happen.
ONE: it ended the campaigns of Oliver, Stein and West, as Harris is arguably as loony or more loony than the three of them.
TWO: it pulled in many RFK voters who were left-leaning, but double-haters and could stomach Harris.
Since then, RFK has been tanking, down to about 2 or 3 percent of the vote. He has no money, no means to get more money, and is going absolutely nowhere. He might as well use what little influence he has left to endorse. Ballots have not yet been finalized, so if he drops now, I don’t think his name would show up in states where he has qualified to appear.
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Considering what we know about the Covid vaccines, RFK Jr is somewhat less than a kook at least on that front.
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Citizen Free Press
@CitizenFreePres
Nicole Shanahan, VP on the Robert Kennedy ticket, says the RFK campaign is currently debating whether to stay in the race or drop out to endorse President Trump. She does not want Kamala to win.
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I took the first 2 vaccines because I needed it to travel. Would certainly not take any more.
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He hates vaccines. Personally, I prefer to not have polio, smallpox, meningitis, etc. Sue me.
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Put me on the side of those that think RFK’s candidacy helps Trump more than it hurts.
I am not sure the leftist conspiracy theorists that are voting against big pharma and the military industrial complex are Trump voters, and I think that is most of what RFK attracts.
RFK’s vote has been going down, but it certainly is not helping Trump.
So all things considered, I would rather he stayed in.
But his VP is the moneybags of his campaign. If she is not in favor of continuing, it won’t happen.
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Personally, I prefer to not have polio, smallpox, meningitis, etc. Sue me.”
Yeah, that is BS.
But I am talking about Covid. He was pretty much on target there.
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RFK Jr would be a positive addition to the Trump coalition. The anti-vax label is like lots of other labels people like to deface people’s reputation with – full of misinformation. He has questioned the efficacy of some vaccines — rightly so with the COVID 19 one which was seen to have too few trials for safety.
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I haven’t followed RFK too closely. Was he anti-vaccine in general? Or was he anti-lets lock down the country and jab everyone by force with something that was ram-rodded through the FDA by emergency powers, even while having to hide other treatments so push through the untested and potentially dangerous shots?
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Some of the kooks who like RFK might switch to Stein.
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To be honest, I don’t know if RFK Jr. is against all vaccines as Bitter stated above.
If he is, he really is a moron.
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was ram-rodded through the FDA by emergency powers”
Well, you can thank Trump for that.
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Vance:
“What the hell is this? Why is
@AndyBeshearKY
wishing that a member of my family would get raped?!? What a disgusting person.”
But some here are wringing their hands because Trump said (correctly) that Kamala is only “black” when convenient.
Some here are wringing their hands because Trump said (correctly) that Biden was pushed out in a disgusting coup.
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It had too few trials because Trump pushed it through. I am fine with that.
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I agree. Trump did a good job getting the vaccine out. He is not his fault that they were over hyped and not as effective as advertised.
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Meanwhile: Harris Imposes New COVID Vax Mandate for All Campaign Employees
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If you think RFK will endorse Trump, you can still get 5-1 odds at Polymarkets
Whoops, just jumped to 54% and climbing. Missed the boat
But his odds of dropping out have sky rocketed to 77%.
https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-endorses-trump-before-november?tid=1724176663361
https://polymarket.com/event/will-rfk-drop-out-before-november?tid=1724176597365
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This is AP so it is left. Still, it does contain information on RFK Jr and vaccines. Take it for whatever worth you see in it. His website did not have a vax section.
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Polymarket odds for swing states
GA Trump 59 Harris 42
PA. Harris 51 Trump 49
NE02 Harris 86 Trump 14
MI Harris 64 Trump 36
NV Trump 53 Harris 48
WI Harris 59 Trump 42
NC Trump 59 Harris 41
AZ Trump 52 Harris 48
Harris wins all 6 swing states 28%
Trump wins all 6 swing states 15%
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https://www.kennedy24.com/policies?_gl=1*29ypnf*_gcl_aw*R0NMLjE3MjQxNzcxODMuRUFJYUlRb2JDaE1JdGEybHY1U0VpQU1WcGw5SEFSM1cwQ0I1RUFBWUFTQUFFZ0xkTHZEX0J3RQ..*_gcl_au*MTE5NDA2MDUwNi4xNzI0MTc2MzE5*_ga*MTgyMTM3ODE1Ny4xNzI0MTc2MzIw*_ga_JWBYYEB6SQ*MTcyNDE3NjMxOS4xLjEuMTcyNDE3NzE4My41My4wLjA.
He might get Bunu’s vote by being a fan of Bitcoin.
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NE-2 is scary. We really may need that. Can you imagine if NE-2 costs the country to have to manage at least 4, if not 8 years of Comrade Kamala’s socialist dictates. If you think Biden was bad, you haven’t seen anything yet. By the end of her reign you will be able to call this the United States of California, comrade
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Fat Alvin pulled the chute.
https://x.com/shipwreckedcrew/status/1825852750300578103?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Rfk was for the Covid lockdowns. Go to his initial tweets.
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Ok, creepy, another lie by Doltz.
https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/1825934624792654189?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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”It had too few trials because Trump pushed it through. I am fine with that.”
Wrong. The pharmaceutical companies relied on getting their gene therapy vaccines approved by discrediting all other early treatment protocols so they were the only treatment available. This gave them a non-liability umbrella because of their “emergency act” label. They could then ignore most safety protocols typically associated with all vaccine approvals. It was the pharmaceutical companies who ethically committed malfeasance. Trump simply facilitated the private and public sectors ability to work together.
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Doltz is a serial liar.
A fraud.
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And was a rushed vax really necessary when the anti viral used in Africa could have saved lives?
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such a joyous day 1 convention with Biden’s lies and anger and beshear wishing rape to family members.
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BTW, while I don’t agree with RFK on many policy issues he is far from a “kook,’ and is instead a successful lawyer dealing with pesticide uses in farming.
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
Roanoke College did very well in 2020. A lot better than the NYT/Siena Poll. Just a fact. Virginia should not be this close if Harris’ improvement was as significant as media and many claim. It’s not.
·
44.2K Views
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Save it, Jan. Trump owns the Covid vaccines. Again, I am fine with it.
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Ask Trump.
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poly markets are now tied .
https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/1825964508667416847?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/kam-unism-sends-philly-fed-business-survey-crashing-covid-lows
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And so with RFK dropout rumors, we are down now to what we sort of anticipated all year long. A two person race, for the greatest stakes in history. Trump wins and there is still ONE place in the world left that is a shining city on the hill, or Harris wins, and the whole world is the same filthy cesspool of violence, hopelessness, poverty, lawfare and despair.
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And as I mentioned at the time, the people of Kentucky refused to allow West Virginians to be uncontested as the stooopidest voters on the planet, and so they wrestled first place away from them by voting in a governor who calls for the rape of family members of his political enemies.
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Axel rod still believes quemala is trailing.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/internal-harris-polling-much-less-rosy-public-polls-super-pac-founder
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Dw, you may like the information in the article from the super pac.
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I’m not “owning”:anything, Bitter. Your opinion is your opinion, and nothing else.
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Trump rushed the vaccines through. That is not an opinion. It is a fact. I think he was right to do so.
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New Thread
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