According to newly released (but stale) polling from Navigator Research taken July 31 – Aug 8 against 600 likely voters per state:
| Trump | Harris | Other | ||
 | AZ | 46 | 45 | 5 |
 | MI | 44 | 44 | 6 |
 | NC | 46 | 46 | 4 |
 | PA | 46 | 44 | 7 |
 | WI | 45 | 45 | 8 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
107 responses to “Very close race in battleground states”
first
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it’s a bit odd that he can be ahead in PA and tied in WI but then also be tied in NC.
pollsters continually try to portray NC as bluer than it is. I still see Trump winning there in margins greater than 2020. Harris has no built in advantage that would give her a greater edge than Biden, Clinton or Obama who all lost it.
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DW – I can see an election with the electoral count you have in your aggregator above. It’s why we need more people coming here. Yours may turn out to be the best in the business in 2024.
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Thanks Vic, I admit it was more fun when MN and NH were red on the chart, and NC, GA, and NV were gone. But once Biden melted down at the debate, we knew that Pelosi and Schumer would tell him to step aside quietly or be met with a suffocating pillow in the middle of the night.
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I should have pointed out that the Navigator polling was done for the DNC by GBAO, a democrat polling firm. So this was a DEM INTERNAL.
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Reposting
Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
Roanoke College did very well in 2020. A lot better than the NYT/Siena Poll. Just a fact. Virginia should not be this close if Harris’ improvement was as significant as media and many claim. It’s not.
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62.4K Views
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Dw, that may tie in or be related to the Superpac for Quemala suggesting a close race.
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The superpac indicates that the agenda poles are “too rozy.”
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Tina, in the future I need to do a better job of distinguishing between true polls and online surveys. The difference can be huge either way on these 100% online surveys.
These “click the link and participate in our poll” outfits are what they are. But they are not scientific polling that includes at least a strong portion of live interviews. Studies have shown people are more apt to lie in an online survey, trolling in essence, claiming to be a Republican but now voting Democrat, and so on. They will forward the link to friends, and have them fill it out.
Some of these that are NOT reputable, and do not appear at RCP include but are not limited to:
FocalData
SurveyMonkey
Bullfinch Group
As evidence, back when Biden was the candidate and NOBODY on the left was interested in clicking the link to take the survey, Bullfinch had Trump up FIVE points in WASHINGTON state. But then when the left got all excited about Harris, suddenly this same methodology pushed out Harris +9 in WI, and Harris +6 in MI.
FecalData had the same swing. It is called response bias. And when the party ID starts out in the sample as a raw D+20 in a state that is considered even, there is no way they can accurately reweight their poll to make it credible. They might get believable toplines, but the internals will be mashed potatoes.
Just so you know, when it comes to the averages in the HHR aggregator, these sorts of surveys get very little weight, and then only when they have larger samples.
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Trump up to 47c at PredictIt
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@Polymarket
August 15
🟦 Harris: 54%
🟥 Trump: 44%
August 20
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 48%
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Remember quemala was limping to the convention. Doltz was a bad pick and she had the price control incident. Last night, was not joyous with the return of dark demented.
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As I remember some newsman saying on election night in 2000, this one’s going to be tight as a tick.
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These polls should worry Democrats. Biden wasn’t booted because he’s too old and infirm. He was replaced because he was losing. Harris was supposed to fix this problem, and while she is undoubtedly polling better, she is not pulling away as expected. That might change after the Democratic National Convention (DNC), but, for right now, after almost four weeks of a near-perfect launch backed by billions of dollars in corporate media propaganda, the race is well within the margin of error. Best of all, all over the country, Trump is polling better today than he ever did in 2016 (which he won) and 2020 (which we are told he only lost by about 45,000 votes in three states).
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/20/nolte-poll-donald-trump-closes-in-on-kamala-harris-in-blue-virginia/
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Jeff, that was none other than Dan Rather.
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Dan Rather is 92, and Tom Brokaw is 84.
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Really in a way its amazing, Despite the 24/7 cheerleading by the openly biased media, Trump has led now in 5 out of the last 6 Arizona polls, and 3 out of the last 4 Pennsylvania polls. The only poll with Trump trailing in Nevada was that absurd FecalData online “click here” survey. Then in GA, PPP-D is the only pollster to show a Harris lead (1 point).
And if its fair to ignore these online only self-selected polls that are not reliable, then its true that in Michigan, Trump has led 2 out of the last 3 polls. A bit rougher in WI, where Trump has led in only 1 of the last four polls, but one of the four was TIPP with a tie.
Given all this, and the Virginia poll showing a deficit of only 3, and the recent New Mexico poll showing a deficit of only 6, it is fair to say that Trump is weathering the storm.
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GF, thanks for jogging my memory. They were all trying to come up with witty ways to describe it being really close. That’s the one that stuck out.
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Trump War Room
@TrumpWarRoom
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Follow
REPORTER: Kamala’s campaign attacked you for being in this town because it’s associated with white supremacy. PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Who was here in 2021? REPORTER: “Joe Biden” PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Thank you.”
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/mic-drop-president-trump-masterfully-shuts-down-reporter/
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Yikes
@zerohedge
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all “beats” recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.
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8.8M Views
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Zelensky Gives Impassioned Plea For More U.S. Money While Wearing Fur Coat And Gold Chain!!! WTH!
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Pretty obvious fake photo. Even it was real, the US should give Ukraine twice the military aid it requests.
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MG, that’s got to be right out of the Bee, no way the Onion would go after UKR like that.
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ma, the Zelenskyy bait worked great. I knew it would trigger some folks. LOL
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What branch of the military did you serve in, MG? You refuse to answer me (which actually does answer me). Maybe you and Navy vet, GF, can discuss it.
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Florida Election Day Turnout Update (4:00 pm ET)
Election Day votes through the first 9 hours:
🔴Republicans – 378,891 (63.30%)
🔵Democrats – 168,105 (28.09%)
🟡Others – 51,549 (8.61%)
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What branch of the military did you serve in, MG? You refuse to answer me (which actually does answer me).
Zzzzzz I don’t need your respect and approval or anyone else on this blog. My family and friends know all that I have accomplished and achieved in my life. You can believe whatever you want.
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Thank you for confirming that you did not serve in the military. Not sure why it took so long.
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Never said that. Like I said believe whatever you want!
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Your refusal to answer said it.
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Your refusal to answer said it.
Wrong most people in the military aren’t like Walz. They don’t go bragging about being in the military just to look cool.
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I know it’s just the start of the second day, but things are going in the opposite direction for Harris/Walz 😂
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I didn’t ask you to brag. I asked if you served. Every veteran I know would say yes. They appreciate being recognized and thanked but don’t brag.
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No, the free passers assured us that Quemala was soaring. Trump was not talking about the issues.
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Tina has her Gateway Pundit talking points ready and she is going to use them, damn it.
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Nobody at HHR said Harris was soaring but Tina can’t let her Gateway Pundit talking points go to waste.
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Bl, we have known each other from Dave’s blog for around 16 years. How much personal information have I ever shared with you or anyone else? My private life is exactly that private. I don’t talk about my family. I don’t talk about my career. The only thing to my knowledge that I have ever shared on Dave’s blog was that I was from West Michigan. I’m a very private person online. I don’t like to share personal information with people I don’t know in real life. I’m not going to argue with you anymore about whether I served or not. Believe what you want. This is the last time I will post about it.
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Babylon Bee Should be Shot.
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I believe you are content to let Ukraine be subjugated to a KGB thug. I believe you did not serve in the military. I believe you are an arrogant douche (but that is the least objectionable thing about you). You don’t dictate what I ask or how I choose to interpret your refusal to answer.
Whenever I think we can tolerate each other, I realize we can’t.
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Of course, we all annoy each other after so long.
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Trump up to 48c at PredictIt
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“Whenever I think we can tolerate each other, I realize we can’t.”
wow, well since this is your blog and you can’t tolerate me. I will leave.
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Zzzzzzzzz I didn’t say to leave. Don’t be a child.
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Most people here don’t like me. I’m not leaving. Both can be true.
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What’s causing Trump to rise on the betting sites? Anything particular or just the general mood.
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Paul,
Betting markets follow the polls and Trump’s poll numbers continue to improve.
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My family and friends know all that I have accomplished and achieved in my life”
He is very accomplished, so much so that he is more American than everyone else.
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I only stay here because everyone likes me.
I know, NYC thinks i should go back to where I am from and MG thinks I am not American enough to understand US politics.
But heck it could be “act of love” in reverse!
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/watch-trump-turns-the-tables-on-race-baiting-reporter-crowd-erupts-mace/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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https://x.com/amuse/status/1826058283045576875?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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The only person I asked to come back was Tina. She can’t stand me, either. It’s fine.
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What’s causing Trump to rise on the betting sites?”
Probably because the convention so far has only appealed to radicals, communists, and weirdos, and Biden’s speech was a trainwreck.
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No, the free passers assured us that Quemala was soaring. Trump was not talking about the issues.”
Nobody said Kamala was soaring. And I have ridiculed the “talk about the issues” meme.
GFY.
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My wine chick friends say that tonight will be better with Obama and Michael.
-free passer
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HHR has an open door. Come and go as you please.
We lost some good posters over the years. We also lost some I don’t miss. Lisab and Tgca lead that list.
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You always say I cannot stand you- that is the big lie right there. I have asked you for restaurants in Pittsburgh, best cheesesteaks in Philadelphia, and praised you repeatedly for keeping the blog up and running.
We do disagree likely most on the grifter and open borders.
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How do we disagree on the border, Tina? Nobody has been a stronger advocate for border security at HHR than me.
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that is true
I think you only differ on Ukraine
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Bidenomics at work
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I would be happy if lisab and Tgca returned.
I certainly don’t miss Amoral Scumbag.
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I am blamed for making a lot of people leave.
Suck it, lesser beings.
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Of course you would. They both hated me.
I still expect to hear Tgca went on a shooting spree. Some people thought lisab might have died. Zzzzzzzzz
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I dont want anyone to go. What happened to Chicon? I haven’t seen him here in weeks. I do hope MG returns, we dont need to lose people
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lisab said she was going to live in Vietnam or Thailand.
Of course they have Internet there, but maybe she decided to start a new life sans HHR.
Or maybe Covid killed her.
Tgca probably died of malnutrition, there is only so long you can live on desiccated organic tree bark.
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Yes, we need MG because his presence makes the site at least 12.74% more American on average, depending on how many posters are on at the time.
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I don’t know where Chi went.
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Michigan Guy, you’re wise not to share much of your private life here – even little tidbits worth turn into forever jabs here.
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The DNC convention is orchestrated to appeal to diehearts progressives and on-demand abortion enthusiasts. Most other moderates would be turned off to the over-the-top rhetoric. Schumer, for instance, was terrible – a messy assortment of lies passing for a speech.
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The 90-page immigration plan from Harris gives amnesty, green cards, all kinds of freebies to 15 million illegals..plus donating tax payer money to fly back any illegal deported and giving them the same pay-offs. It’s migraine producing to even consider these plans.
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Zzzzzzzzz I am an open book. I have met several posters for meals. Not sure if I would do that with many more.
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You could say the same about out the RNC Convention. It was entirely for Trump’s base.
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Joy in Chicago.
Antifa attack police. It’s going down.
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Deporting 15 million people would devastate the economy. Giving them a pathway to be legal residents and eventually citizens is good for America.
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I disagree on the RNC.
Nikki Haley got to speak. DeSantis. Rubio.
There was plenty of red meat for the base but the DNC seems to be catering to the extreme left of the party.
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Deporting cheap labor also reduces production supply and creates inflation.
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Nobody is deporting 15 million.
But a million including all the criminals would be. good start.
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Citizenship should be reserved for LEGAL immigrants who have done the right thing and waited in line for the prescribed time and followed all the requirements.
Not for law breakers.
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Criminals deported yes. Not a million. That would be bad for business.
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Why did Quemala visits Sheetz with the faux Doritos ad?
Her administration is suing Sheetz
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Agreed. No pathway to citizenship ever if you have come here legally. We can work with those who have been here for a long time, but recent illegals have to go. At some point those outside this country need to see we mean business, and deporting that last wave taht came in make sense.
BTW, a good start is by fining companies HEAVILY who employ them knowingly. That’s where enforcement starts. No job and no benefits means they will return (some) because they don’t have options here.
It is not right to only blame it on those coming illegal. This administration who handed out taxpayer money hand over fist, and those large companies who knowingly employ them for cheap labor share the blame.
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Anyway, I’m just excited to see what Doug Emhoff does with the Christmas decor next year. He’s got an eye for that kind of stuff.
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The difference between the RNC and DNC conventions was immense. The RNC was far more people friendly with citizens participating rather than time-stamped establishment politicians. Families were present with children – not at the DNC arena. RNC People were happy rather than the artificially expressed “joy” Harris cackles about. There were stories, policies expressed in the RNC speech’s contents. All the DNC was go hyperbolic on Trump, with so many lies and misconceptions of the man (never eluding to his successful record as a former president). This week’s DNC convention has been nothing more than a massive display of political dishonesty.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/far-left-protesters-burn-american-flag-clash-chicago/
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Jan, I have to go in the middle here. Conventions are supposed to be the time to play to the base, gin up support and energy from those who already support you, and make the candidate look good. While the RNC did have a bit of a different tone, it was basically what a convention is supposed to be. This is meant to make the far left feel like they are going to win and get all they want.
A wash…now…the campaign truly begins in two weeks.
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52-42 Trump in RAS last night.
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1826078255096455505
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Let’s cut to it. None of us is objective. We are not Independents (regardless of registration). We want the Rs to win and the Ds to lose. Our perceptions of the conventions is filtered through that.
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You only see it through your bias. I didn’t watch as much as the RNC but there the same type of stories but from the opposite side of issues. I don’t think that either convention cared about Independent voters.
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Conventions are not meant for independent voters. They are meant to solidify the base and gin up motivation for hard core supporters.
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How does Ras get a +10 for Trump. No way, never. Dems are baked in at 45%, R’s about the same, fighting for the 10% in the middle…used to be 30% in the middle. Those days are gone.
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Poor Bitter, always looking for false equivalencies when there aren’t any.
The RNC was not a far right convention. There were no proposals to radically transform society, most of the proposals were mainstream conservative. Bitter admits Trump is not even a conservative, so his hardly a far rightist. Trump’s opponents had a voice.
Contrast this with the openly Marxist orientation of the DNC, where radical proposals that would completely transform American society are front and center. Biden said pro-Hamas terrorist supporters “had a point”. Open borders, defund the police, decriminalization of serious crimes, massive redistribution of wealth, abdication of American sovereignty, abrogation of parental rights, etc.
There is no “equivalency” here. The DNC is much more radical than the RNC. To say this doesn’t reveal any “bias”.
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Vic, I know you’re right about conventions. Although, this current DNC rendition seems especially unbridled in handing out hateful stuff.
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Well said……..
@MNHockeyGuy66
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The Obama’s are blowing it. The DNC is 0% policy and 100% hatred against Donald Trump & his supporters. Where’s the joy? This is nothing but division!
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Funny answer by Vance…
https://x.com/PapiTrumpo/status/1825959358024527922
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VictrC,
The 52-42 in RAS was last night’s sample only. Click on the link.
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It was a one day sample. Tomorrow morning we will get the weekly tracking result from RAS.
Mark Mitchell, the owner of Rasmussen Reports, thinks it is a Trump by 3 race right now.
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thanks Marv. That makes sense and I appreciate that!!
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C
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Lots going on, keep up the good work!
Trump/Vance2024
Cheers!
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The more T-V hammer home policy, the more Harris/Walz will need to speak about policy and defend their bad ones.
That said, I think every attack must be fought back against, just do so in a way that is both vicious yet concise, amusing and geared towards those same failed policies…..easy peasy.
Goodnight!
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https://x.com/tpostmillennial/status/1825326521948541315
Sorry, couple more…….doesn’t “CG” live in/near Chicago?
I’ll assume he was walking with his fellow Biden/Harris/Walz voters.
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Poor Jason. He can never handle any opinion different from his own so he resorts to his tired “false equivalency” line of attack.
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To be fair, Jason believes that everybody is entitled to Jason’s opinion.
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Another day 2 of no joy. This is a mean and nasty convention. Yes, the conventions are for the bases, but not at all times. There is an attempt to go to the middle and discuss some issues. None here.
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Yes, CG, lived in my congressional district. Chicago suburbs.
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